No calculation, 1warrant, u pay 7.96, u get I mother share

Up up up

Since I predicted wrongly for bottom, 8.99, instead of my Prediction 8.6-8.8, then hopefully my guess for high side also wrong,
Later on price it will hit 11.8-12.5, everyone agree? D): D):

Recap My Prediction for bottom line 8.6-8.8, and hit around 11.5-11.80. (from now until 31dec2017)

Hng33 congrats........big win this round

that why never thought yourself is son of the god, sell june buy back sept, or whatever short term sentiment

Bad lucky couldnt get my 200,000 at 1.5, luckily still have 100,000 at 1.55, hold until dec2018

Once RWLV factor in,us4b investment x 5% return in profit (min)=usd200m,x4.3=860m/4450m,thats 20sen/share, so share price target will rise rm4

Las Vegas Strip (LVS) gross gaming revenue has been anaemic since 2013 but Maybank IB Research did not believe that this is structural.

Its research indicates that the ISM manufacturing index leads 6M MA LVS gross gaming revenue growth year on year (y-o-y) by three months.

“As the ISM manufacturing index hit a three year high in May 2017, this indicates to us that the American economy is growing and that LVS GGR will grow y-o-y going forward.

“Therefore, we gather that Resorts World Las Vegas will open to a favourable operating environment in 2020,” the research firm said.

Remark, personal point of view, most brokerage firm will catalyst and factor in RWLV in next 6 month especially in 2018

Winning rate is 2.7%, but lucky factor of single bet is 100%, so sometimes is big win and big lose for "all in" bet gambler

If he lose money to genting, genting earned once shut 500k, if he win first 1st time 1mil, then few visits later genting make more, maybe 2mil, anyway in long run genting always win

Breaking news, with more than 10 year of effort, genm seen hard to penetrating into china super vip customer, of course with all new casino in Macau, elegant luxury , new, and near china, very seldom high end chinese vip customer visits genting malaysia such old casino. , with recents 30+ one by one private gaming room opened 3rd flood at genting grand hotel recently, min check in of 500k/1mil, it successfully attracts super vip to come, based on insider info, increasingly about 15% of super vip come to gambling in genting Malaysia. Super vip junket from Chinese seen everywhere in vip gaming area. For Mass market china customer also seen increasingly in modern sky avenue gaming area. With addition 250 gaming table, and 1500 new slots,

Many maybe not aware, Energy divisions for genting worth lots of money, no like bina puri, only 1-200mil market cap go for listing in indonesia, with the power capacity of 2307MW(net attributes) that to be fully commerce this year, is more than 3times of the size of 720mw langat power plant genting sold to 1MDB 2011 for 2.3b five years ago now worth how much? 2.5, 2.6?x3=7.5b?, also book value assets of oil and gas in chengdaoxi and kasuri（development plan to be submit again/ ready to develop/gas price have risen over pass five years no like oil) stall at 5.3b, both power and oil and gas, worth could worth around 11-14b and above, remember this is net attribute interest entirely 11-14b count to Genting bhd, not like genm, 49.3% holding. After almost recently year of investing, harvesting time becoming very close now, 13000m/3810mshare, that's about 340sen per share, most analysts almost factor in less than rm1, some even ignoring the existence of the 13b, and said it only contributes 5% of profit, and even not to take count of any catalyst,

Sorry yes, only 1000 share for attending meeting

I don't own genm,

W calculated not factor in any of positive or negative catalyst, it only calculate price of W, based the interest been saved, dividends lose out, effective gearing benefits u get, based certain mother share movement characteristics(impl vol)

In AGM tan sri say, is just matters of time, federal gov already approved, work started, now small groups of natives main main around,

FLRC will cost 25sen lost in paper, and expected earnings of 12sen could not be reliaze for genm. 25 sen of genm, mean 12.5 sen for Genting, and most if the chance 50% of the fund are still no utilize yet, so, mean half of money can be recall. worst only 5-6sen reducing in genting NTA, one time extraordinary loses and core earning remains the same, since earnings not even factored in,

On average

vip customer bet 10000 each time, within 3hours, will, rolled over around 1mil chip, genm will make 27000 already,

Just very bad luck that cannot get W at 1.50

Since call warrant have market maker, they calculate and use, hourly imp vol, daily imp vol, monthly imp vol, thats why the premium keep changing, and when price go higher, you always can see discount alots, because normally effectively gearing will get lower, , like now, curious 2 ask why W still stall at 161, because the effective gearing is higher, thats why you have to pay more premium. But investors in Malaysia not very mutual, they dont do calculation, imp vol, some even never heard imp vol. most of company warrant wa,wb,wc, trade very low or very very high value.

Like you can see the call warrant for tenaga, public bank, the premium is low, because the imp vol is low

25% also mean genting share will up and down by 25% on average

If subscribers stock software like brokerage firm does, bases on daily share price movements, computer will calculate the volatility, u can get imp vol value, i get imp vol from brokerage firm(same use 30day imp vol). Also, house only win 2.7-2.9%, after junket and other, mean, if you bet 100, genm win 2.7, gamer loss 2.7only. Not genm winning 97.3

People just sharing excitement, don't attempt to attack,

35bil market cap of genting, 32bil for genm, rm40bil for genting sing, 10 b for gentp, total roughly, total 117b in market cap, that's 117,000,000,000.00,bigger then maybank, u think hng33 is janet yellen can attact fund big enough to put the price up 10sen. And furthermore we, only less then100 retailers here is only,

9.25 must multiply by 0.25 as premium because the share will go and down( the volatility) (12month), the highest imp vol, mean, chances to go up higher, mean high chance to make profit

Id =if

Or in other words, id this is CW15, CW.., it will price at 3.3

Fair price should be, 3.3

Your one is only simple calculation, complete calculation should be
[{mother share price+(mother share price -warrant price)x holding cost(interest)x period to expiration)}-deduct dividend}]x(1+implied volatility), then deduct ex price, +/-0 standard deviation of premium or discount,
[{9.12+(9.12-1.59)x0.05(int)x(17months/12months)(life)-40sen dividend }x1.25]-7.96-30sen
=[{9.12+0.53-0.4}x1.25]-7.96-0.3
=9.25x1.25-7.96-0.3
=11.56-7.96-0.3
=3.3

Hng33, i like the forecast make by maybank, almost 95% match/in line with my sop calculations , and seen they are starting to factor in 2019, because the foresee profit is to visible,

When share price going up too fast, WA always trade at discount normally at 10-20sen, like genting plantation Wa sometime discounts 25sen, I apply max 30sen. Remember when genting trade at 10.00,but Wa trade at 1.85only, 10-7.96=2.04, 2.04-1.85, discount 19sen, then lots of poeple convert to mother to make small money(including me converted a lot last month, every 4 days I converted 100,000)

Imp vol=0.25, , so 9.4+(0.25x9.4)=11.75, or easy way 9.4x1.25=11.75

Ringgit seen stable these few days, looks like,selling pressure will ease a bit in next few days

Millions share Q to sell( never see ), but buyer take all of them

Like today they fight like crazy,

Profit taking not over yet, but now come with strong buyer

I estimate even at 8.5, Wa will be at 1.45 and +-5 sen only

but i think the chance maybe low, since, 70mil wa been converted recently, 680 mil left, 75 % of them will been converted, only about 170mil WA tradeable, drop from 240mil, as u can see now WA price are very stubborn

So, GoldenT u are right, only 1-1.3 and below look attractive,

Entry price of Warrant of 1.5 and above just double your investments, in fact above 1.5 not seen very attractive

9.12, plus 5% holding cost per year, for 18months=9.8,
minus 40sen dividends (expect 10sen and 30sen special)=9.4
X 1.25 of imp vol=11.75, (-7.96)ex price = 3.79, -30sen discount, 3.49,
Mathematics valuation

I seen genting profit to be double or triple from 2015 to 2018, plus Genting wa 5time gearing, so seeing multiple time of profit is realistic, since huge growth of sustainable profit, or not i seldom buy share PE more then 10x,

So if u want to bet, become vip, casino take 2.7% winning rate only

Highest Gross margin in world, 1st Singapore, 2 Macau, 3 Malaysia

daily beting turnover should be around 280-400mil (in Malaysia), winning rate for mass market around 25%-27%, vip around 2.7%, electronic machine around 3%, , thats about 10-13mil of gaming revenue daily and generating 4.5-6 mil gaming gross profit daily. Genting sing has highest margin 50-52% gross profit, Malaysia around 42-45% gross profit

I like Small med cap PE below 5-6x, some tech stock like BABA(alibaba), Tencent, Facebook

also holding KSL, HengYuan(shell), AirAsia in Malaysia market, also holding some US and HK H share