Malaysian Stock Rally Seen Extending as Market Value Hits Record : Stock market’s value hits record 2 trillion ringgit on Tuesday

Upturn in global capex cycle to help company earnings: JPM
8 May 2024 at 13:27 GMT+8

A rally in Malaysian stocks is set to continue amid strong support from local funds and as foreign investors return to the market..... risen more than 10% so far this year, outperforming regional peers.

The flurry of buying sent the local equity market value to a record high of more than 2 trillion ringgit ($421 billion)

“An upturn of the global capex cycle, tourism recovery, and resilient domestic demand would benefit” firms in the tech, transportation, industrials and tourism-linked sectors.

In yesterday's Star article, UOB KH has forecasted full year earnings of M$165 mil to M$183 mil. Divided by 420 mil shares outstanding that comes to M$0.39 to M$0.43 EPS. So it currently trades at a forecasted PER of just 7.46X to 6.77X !!If these earnings do materialise, the company can upsize the dividends to say 20-25 sen , making the yield highly sought after by insurance companies, retirees and pte banking clients. The silver lining could be a sizeable bonus issue like 1: 1 to improve the liquidity in the stock and allow hedge funds, mutual funds , ETF managers, Commodity Funds SWFs, etc to come in and take out the selling from the retail shareholders who might decide to dump the bonus shares. Truly exciting times are ahead. But the shares need a re-rating from research houses to enjoy a higher valuation. At the moment only, UOB KH, Malacca Sec and Kenanga cover the stock. Hopefully more will discover this dividend rich gem.

Last week, there was one day when total kts traded at LME was 2,200 kts. Each kt is 5 tonnes. So total was 11,000 tonnes traded. Tin inventories at the LME have nearly halved this year to 3,670 tonnes. There is going to be a chronic shortage of tin going forward, as its not so easy to increase supply in a short period of time. I think , just like lithium prices from 2020 to 2022, which climbed 10X on soaring demand from EVs !! , tin is poised to break the all time high price of US$50,000 per tonne and go to a new high this year on multiple demand drivers ranging from new models of handphones, semiconductor chips, solar panels, electric batteries, high end automotive electronics, and 5G base stations !!

MSC should be M$3.85 😒

LME TIN US$34,000 !!!!
2022 TIN All Time High US$50,000
2022 MSC All Time High M$5.46
At US$34,000 MSC should be M$3.70
msc should be M$3.70 level

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest : 33,750 +975 (+2.97%)

LME Tin US$32,000.
When Tin hit US$50,000 IN Feb/March 2022 , MSC hit $5.46.
Today Tin is US$32,000 , so MSC should be at least M$3.48

LME Tin -US$30,490

LME select Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
HIGH 29,350

LME select Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:28,880

Tin US$28,615

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LMEarrow
Latest:28,430

Tin surges past US$27,300 . MSC is on the move, now 2.06/07 !!Results probably out this Friday 17th !!

Tin continues to climb to US$26,650.

Tin US$26,200

Tin creeping up to US$25,800

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
Latest:US$24,850
-45 (-0.18%)

Yesterday at the close somebody put 100k to sell at 2.13 when the last trade done before matching period was 2.16. Dont know who is doing this, but this last second sell down has been going on for months !!

Tin futures back up to USD 24,770 per metric ton.

Results should be out on 17th Nov 2023. 3Q should be better than 2Q ; mining side should do well, with smelting side about 2Q levels as the smelter was still shut down in July. Mgt confidence in the outlook for tin going forward was reflected in their surprise interim dividend of 7 sen !! YOY comparison will be stark as last year 3Q was a loss of about 35mil !!

LMEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LME
Latest:26,180
+477 (+1.86%)

MSC Earns Recognition for
“Highest Growth in Profit After Tax Over Three Years”
Award at The Edge Malaysia Centurion Club 2023

Looks like not many people know of the 7 sen interim dividend . Any newspapers mentioned it ?

Has anyone seen any broker research reports or results review recently ? If yes, kindly post here for us to read. Thanks.

Somebody always comes at closing to mark it down to a lower price. I suspect once the lower price is fixed , they then buy back a block at that price.

Go to this site for live LME prices :https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

MEselect Tin 3 Month, USD/mt
LME
Latest:25,210
+24 (+0.10%)

Tin now doing 25,540, +215 slight recovery

EPS IS 15.20 FOR THE HALF YEAR 2023.

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30 Jun 2023

INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
30 Jun 2023
30 Jun 2022
30 Jun 2023
30 Jun 2022
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
327,013
408,836
667,071
768,314
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
42,218
54,633
93,852
144,869
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
31,458
39,439
69,546
103,736
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
28,449
39,450
63,859
103,791
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
6.80
9.40
15.20
24.70
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00


AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.8100
1.7100

UOB KH Target price M$2.69. 2023 EPS 26.3 sen , 2024 EPS 36.00 sen and 2025 EPS 42.7 sen forecast.

The results should be out on 8.8.23 , should be better than 1Q of 35 mil. Mining output has increased from their new landbank , the smelter is finally operating at full capacity with costs dropping about 30% due to economies of scale, Ringgit is down about 8% against the US$ in the last one year and tin is closing in on US$30k . With the continued tightness in the supply of tin , tin prices should trend higher. They should be able to do 45-50 million for the 2Q. But the best is yet to come as China's giant manufacturing sector , which gobbles 50% of world tin output,
recovers towards the end of this year on govt stimlative efforts. They can definitely do much better going forward. It might be helpful if MSC gets certified as an ESG compliant entity , which would attract the trillions of US$ in ESG funds to invest in the company. Then maybe their valuation , currently at 6X PER , can be closer to Press Metal Aluminium's which trades at a PER of 35X 2023 earnings !!