If any of you notice, HY been using multiple financial instrument to buy and sell commodities and refined oil

Forward priced commodity contracts 121,752 50,092 -
Commodity swap contracts 306,148 65,784 (25,725)
Commodity options contracts 7,647 - (200,034)
Refining margin swap contracts 291,009 45,186 (339,510)

I just feel option is abit risker due to the floating value and not obligated if not mistaken but they would lose the premium they paid.

The rest forward and swap are pretty straight forward with confirmed payment either multiple or one lump sump.

I just wonder one thing, where does some of you get next quarter calculation would be USD 26/ barrel?

Enjoy the trading tomorrow guys!

Thanks Probability and sorry was afk just now! Appreciate all your sharing! :)

Now it make sense why Jalil resign and left! Somehow, there is something he unable to recover in short period and harm his name anymore.

Literally, he knows what's going to happen in the future! Just cut loss after years of holding this counter. Even though didn't lose much yet sad to see never see any capital gain nor dividends given.

should have exited during the spike in march last year!

@probability

why would they want to buy their own refined oil where they had refined it and good to sell! You can't do anything with refined oil for the refinery company unless they use for their daily usage whereby they can use their own inventory isn't?

i get where you are coming from though

Alright, now it make sense to all your understand and totally able to comprehend it! They are selling cheap and buying back at high price is a pain.

Just one clarification, when you said buy at higher price is crude or refined oil?

Normally, if the crude oil is expensive and the gasoil and gasoline are cheap the the company would make loss. However, i though refinery company goes with crack spread value, as long it stays high means your will be profitable. Unless, that's why i asked you earlier if they purchased the crude oil at higher price due to hedging

Hi Probability

i have a question here --> as mentioned earlier

if the rise in refined products matched the rise in crude - the hedging loss or gain will be neutral (correct)

Q1 case, the refined products shot up way much higher than the crude oil rise (crack spread spiked), thats why they have a net hedging loss. --> Isn't a good thing if the refined product price is higher than crude oil, then only we could gain the revenue from here and indirectly contribute to the crack spread(higher means refined oil price increase)

So here is my quick question, hedging loss means they bought alot of crude oil at higher price(future price) that's made the loss in Q1? Are you referring to this?

so in Q2 they don't have to worry about inventory anymore, hence keep refining oil till end of 2022 since the inventory last till end of 2022. Correct me if i'm wrong.

Adding to the ORL part -->
Chief executive Malachi Alper said that since mid-March ORL has seen “unprecedented refining margins” that are expected to give a significant boost to the firm’s performance later in 2022.

Aint sure if we get an early retracement before the QR or not. Bazan(ORL) had the same retracement after the QR report yet buckle up to uptrend.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/uySfwbiC/?symbol=TASE%3AORL

Having mix feeling if drop more.

HAHA, aSB OR EPF OR KWSP OR PENSION FUND, THESE ib'S ARE nothing. Go check biohlding and how much the price has plunged? pointless just looking at these IB's. That's the last thing i would see from them especially.

Sslee

You can read A18 on derivaties exposure in USD to estimate whether Hengyuan will enjoy the q2 crack spread of USD 26/ barrel --> where do you see USD26/barrel, can't find anywhere in the report leh?

This guy eps is 15.32 cents yet the price is like unbelievable! I am clueless with whats going on hopefully tomorrow would up another few more percent! :)

Hopefully, the D chart is a double bottom and looking forward to a fair value of ~1.90. :)

Nice as expected regards to China Lockdown.

. This could swiftly reverse when the Chinese economy switches back on gear with the
eventual easing of lockdowns coupled with its USD2.3 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the
economy

ABSBOSS --> Buy more c70 it will shoot up! BUY BUY BUY and keep!

Hopefully, momentum will regain soon!

CPO price drops so do other plantation stock price, yet TSH strongly standing. Luckily, we are at good hand, it means insider holding tightly on this stock and the floating share for this stock not much.

For those thinking, it would break below 1.35 then we are in big danger because from 1.35-1.42 is the buying/vwap zone. It break then lao sai i would say and better sell it and go to another counter.

I'm still holding because earning is still green. They should have given us some dividends to give hope that this counter is still strong. !

Still orang tak mahu dengar and wanted to goreng this stock! Better don't la just stay away or keep the cash in the fix deposit. Never dare to buy anything that gap down more than 30% like this kind of counter. Please learn the lesson from luna as well. Rug pull as always!

Raymond Tiruchelvam -->

Where do you get the value for the floating traded shares in bursa?

Thanks OTB for the clarification and totally appreciate it very much!

Well, Brian, it's not about you are holding CFA, FRM or an accountant. This is what we call doing research before buying something. I have no idea what up between both of you but i appreciate every details from this forum.

Well, as for this stock, crack spread is very important. As investor in refining stock, if you don't know crack spread means then you are out of game. It's no longer a crude oil game but knowing the margin of crack spread. Sometime, crude oil maybe pricy but if the demand in gasoline and fuel oil isn't there the margin will not good at all. That's why we need to know the collateral of 3:2:1 calculation.

On the other hand, now is the best time of all as we are shortage of refined gas so it's a good thing. Next, due to the Ukraine and Russian tension everything is favorable to this stock. Take a look on XLE etf soaring high as if no next day! Plus, soon there gonna be hurricane and another shortage coming by.

Ultimately, it is the most important yardsticks through which refinery companies are evaluated. Let's have more knowledge spread among our community. I'm sure you do a simple EPS calculation and check the fair value every quater to ensure you don't fall back or get losses from your investment.

Cheers guy! Really looking forward for another one more run at least!

I found some of you calculating differently on the refining margin, mind sharing where do you get the value and wanna double confirm to my side as well. OTB or sslee?

hey guys i wonder, where do you obtain the value of output refined oil from the crude oil per barrel or the value of refinery margin ? Was it approximate?

btw, take a look of XLE etf, it has broke a new high with all the oil company break a new. I guess its a rally next monday.

Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to the lowest level since 2007 at 767,700 tonnes, down from almost 2 million tonnes last March. In fact the LME price surge as much $3000 per tonne.

So this quarter should be good la! Anyway, the only counter that is recovering in my portfolio the rest hangus liao!

Bursa is not a long term investing anymore as those years before 5 years.

The company sold forward 60% of its production at US$2,300 to US$2,400, even though spot prices were above US$3,000 early this year. The remaining 40% were sold at spot prices.

“I’m not really concerned about the price, unless it goes down to below US$2,000. Bear in mind that before Covid-19, the average price was less than US$2,000. Definitely aluminium players are still making good money,” he adds.

Press Metal is the largest integrated aluminium producer in Southeast Asia. It has a smelting capacity of 1.08 million tonnes and an extrusion capacity of 210,000 tonnes per annum.

Since surging past US$3,800 a tonne in March this year — the highest in more than 13 years — aluminium prices have retreated 30% to a five-month low of US$2,700 a tonne.

The surging is during the March period but next quarter would be impacted if China is still lockdown till end of next month!

Genp is like ripple effect though! Once the Genting earning is bad throughout the quarter high possibility would be negative as well!

Honestly, i dont really care about the pattern or so whatever. As said, for this counter the debt is high yet the revenue is good as well. China got lockdown just recently not during the Jan to March period. So i assume the earning is positive and this counter would keep going up slowly.

For me one day 1% is good enough! I don't like roller coaster counter!

Relax la All, why so kancheong everyday! I guess mostly here are active trader and not passive trader! I don't think passive trader much in Bursa due to the volatility and hard to keep the long term momentum in Bursa!

I'm looking forward for the earning tomorrow. Indeed abit weird with the price valuation between PetronM and Hengyuan regardless their market cap is similar. Indeed, the PAT would be at least 300MIl and expecting the price around RM27 at least. In fact, for the PetronM the fair price is the same as the market value!

Anyway, as long the crack spread is remain high and just keep it! Bursa is abit funny, earning high yet the price doesnt move but rise with speculation and rumuors. Sometime, investing isn't comprehend with hard knowledge rule but more to Take Profit as long hit your target!

Cheers guys! Try not to open the trading today yet the price is remain stagnant!

All the best guys later morning! Am not going to open my platform yet this stock would soar high due to the sentiment! Hold your horses and see you at the top of Eifel tower soon! :D Cheers and happy trading!

All the US refineries are up! We are going long tomorrow maybe start with Gap up first

The IB is quite generous here! Those who never participate and now will give 2nd chance to participate. This is the longest wick ever! I just feel like riding on a glove stock! Shark always scare everyone with at least 15% drop then up 30%. haha! Glove stock is a good rally and experience!

Haha later anyone got money just ride along with the wave!

I have no idea such a crazy revenue!

Holy Shit EPS of 15 cent and PAT 300mil kalau tak pecut x tahu nak cakap apa!

@klee, Glove period semua ada duit and not inflation. US print money banyak, Now tighten liao! So mostly all over the world is affect. However, this crack spread would stay high as long war is there and no new refinery is build. Normally, it's aint that easy to build one and very costly. Its a norm in Ong where they share the profit to investor more rather than expanding due to costing. I don't think anyone would want to build now as EV is also coming up. It's a tug and war game la! Anyway enjoy the ride while we can!

Actually, it's only Bursa have this kind of shit tricks. Whenever, warrant about to expire they pressed down the underlying stock and reward the warrant investor at smallest value ITM else make it burn! I have seen across in many counter. This should be like Option in US but in US i hardly see the underlying stock being manipulate like here. Indeed, the volume and liquidity plays the biggest role so Bursa easily to manipulated.

looking at the price now, its quite corelate that warrant is expiring and share price is decreasing. Even though this stock should be valued at least RM20.

Waam TSH taken into private, willingly to let go around RM2(fair value). Take my money, baby!

Hardly, TSH would go for that because CPO price will remain high at least till next year! Ukraine-Russia war can't be solve in overnight anymore. All the basic commodities badly affected due to this war! So it takes time! No harm to keep plantation in your portfolio. At least one will do! I see people still holding glove and tech stock till now why not Plantation!

As long postive EPS Huat ready this counter!

Calvin, was it previous accumulation or just recently?

Cheers, guys fundamentally TSH is strong and supposedly should be around RM2 and CPO price still remain high. Just the inflation cause all the chaos that's all! Technically analysis wise, waiting for IB to push!! Lets Huat together will do and indeed risk management is important to secure our capital but no harm waiting while CPO price is still high! If jatuh below 5.5K i'm out though!

Cheers, guys fundamentally TSH is strong and supposedly should be around RM2 and CPO price still remain high. Just the inflation cause all the chaos that's all! Technically analysis wise, waiting for IB to push!! Lets Huat together will do and indeed risk management is important to secure our capital but no harm waiting while CPO price is still high!

With EPS of next quarter of 4cents,surely back to RM6.

Just wait for the China to uplift the lockdown then we all know what's going on in the world. PRoblem here is China is still lockdown. That's why the price cant go down and up due to high holding of insider. I can bet till the lockdown isnt ease the price linger here plus wait for the QR to determine whether the eps 0.0354 is valid or not

With such report, the price should be around RM2, hopefully it will rebound tomorrow!

Hold your horses if you believe in the fundamental! That's all i could say!

Simple Analogy we never break new high yet but US refinery already break new high and still standing! If not mistaken since 1977 they havent got any new refinery so do us!

I smell volume today! All the best guys! Honestly, i can wait, want the accumulation to happened in a big number! Huat Ah, Ong ahh, Heng Ah!

Thanks for sharing treasure hunt! Normally, quantitative easing all the stock soar higher like tech definitely but tightening might hurt everyone as less FDI/insti/HNI into the market. I still believe, This round commodity is best hedging but let see how it goes.

How this counter still can survive, just eliminate them!

If this guy listed in US stock, i already short this counter kau kau! Even use margin as well!

@koowakzai, how do you know the Singapore fund already disposed?

Those still holding better exit i guess, Worse counter since IPO!

All the push from the crosstrade. Can someone confirm when is Genting QR release?

Is it 26th may 2022?

HK stock has some issue though, thier CNOOC isn't moving as well.

it seems US and MYR market is good. For Ong!

I don't care about the MSCI not much leh! Indeed, it is important as Tesla got kicked from index around 2am, the stock plunge like nobody busineess!

just do their EV in plantation will do!