Thank you BursaVulture for the update

Why is management taking so long to announce the new revised agreement on the 5th turbine that had attained COD on 1st July 2024? At the 2Q briefing, management said that the new revised agreement is ready and awaiting the Laos government approval. Is it not approved or getting difficulty in getting approval? In the meantime the share price is getting lower and lower. Hope there will be good news when the 3Q results are announced in November.

SMInvest,

Please stop promoting long and repetitive PMBTech non-stop in this PMetal chatgroup. Please kindly do it in the PmbTech chatgroup.

Admin. please kindly exercise more control over irrelevant postings. Thank you.

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > Oct 22, 2021 11:29 PM | Report Abuse

RHB analyst 22 October 2021

2022F

Average selling price (USD/t) 6,000

Capacity (tpa) 72,000

PMB Silicon Cash Profit (MYR millions ) 1043

PMB Silicon Net Profit (MYR millions) 958



Mr.Sm Invest123, Please kindly post the link to this RHB analyst report. Thank you.

Correction: to repay the loan and interest.

Please don’t harp on the 3.80 sen dividend. Obviously, Supermax is saving the profits to expand or built 5 new factories in Malaysia, one new factory each in US and in Britain, without or with little bank borrowings. This is very much safer than using bank borrowings, as failure to repay the loan and capital will result in PN17 status. Using its own profits to built new factories will not cause Supermax to become a PN17 status company.

For your information, Warren Buffett’s own company, Bershire Hideaway, has never given a single cent dividend, in more than 40 years, yet its share price is the highest in THE WORLD. It has created more millionaires than any other listed company in the world. Most of its shareholders are now multi-millionaires. (Class A shares of Berkshire are currently priced at well over US$300,000 each, equivalent to RM1,230,000.00 each ).

Giving or not giving out dividends is not an issue as long as the Company is using the profits to expand and grow its revenue and profits, and all long-term shareholders will benefit from the rising share price.

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. I’m just stating the historical facts of Bershire Hideaway’s no dividend policy.

Posted by WilburR2 > Jan 16, 2021 3:25 PM | Report Abuse

Unit no 2 set to finish trail run on Monday 18th. Earlier than expected. Fund managers take note

WilburR2, From where did you get this news? Please kindly post the link to this news. Thank you.

gloveharicut,

You are just a shameless copy cat. Nothing original from you. You just copy and paste. Please don't waste our time with old news.

Hello, DK
My name has already been added to your blog. However I could not enter your blog as the heart symbol is missing on the top right hand corner. Any suggestion on how to solve this problem? Thank you.

Hector99

Admin,

Please do your duty. Someone is using foul language Continuously. Thanks

Post removed.Why?

Please refer to your technical charts . All the glove stocks are in oversold position and will need to come down to overbought position before they can move higher.

Hi DK66,

Please kindly add my name to your list. Thank you.

Posted by polycarb > Mar 4, 2020 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

treasure99 If power plant so good, why YTL power only 68.5 sen and Malakof 87 sen...???
04/03/2020 10:15 AM

Polycarb, please don't ask Standard 1 questions here. Revise your FA 101. More man, less share. Less man, more share.

YTL had issued 8.15b shares and its EPS is 5.98 sen and Malakof had issued 5.00b shares and its EPS is 6.55 sen. How can their shares go up with such meager earnings?

JAKS had issued 651m shares. Its forward EPS is estimated to be 38 sen when its power plant is fully operational.

Posted by probability > Mar 3, 2020 11:20 AM | Report Abuse

1) 7-15.3.2020, unit 1 will join the grid for the first time;
2) 1-15.4.2020 will test reliability and
3) May 15 - 15.6.2020 will operate commercially.

My interpretation is this:

Item (1) - The pylon towers and cables will be completed and connected to the national grid,but there will be no transmission of electricity.

Item(2) - The electricity generated during the reliability test for Plant 1 will be transmitted to the national grid, and will be paid for.

Item(3) - Mission accomplished. COD for Plant 1 officially started.

DK66,

Please go ahead with your estimates.

By the way, how do you arrived at your first TP 2.50. Thank you.

Thank you Probability.

Your news is very reassuring.

Just bought some at 1.19

Putin in order to buy some more order at 1.10

DK66, Please ignore my previous post. I manage to find your article.Thank you.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-18-story-h1483853060-Jaks_Resources_The_Final_Count_Down_Turbine_is_Almost_Ready.jsp
Jaks Resources - The Final Count Down ! (Turbine is Almost Ready)
Author: DK66 | Publish date: Tue, 18 Feb 2020, 8:20 PM
________________________________________
Seeing is believing - The final and most important piece of equipment, steam turbine, is almost ready !
The Unit 1 steam turbine

Photo taken on 6 Feb 2020


Photo taken on 17 Feb 2020

Just compare with the completed Mong Duong II steam turbine (Photo below), you can see that Hai Duong steam turbine is structurally completed with final touch-up.


Mong Duong II Steam turbine in Operation
________________________________________
Once the turbine is ready, the power plant will be fired up and the turbine is tested to stabilise at 3000rpm. This is expected to be carried out in March 2020. This process signifies the complete installation of Unit 1 of the power plant.
Next, arrangement will be made with EVN for synchronisation with the national grid.
Finally, the 168 hours stress / reliability test will be carried out. Once satisfied with the test results, the commercial operation date (COD) is achieved !
I expect Unit 1 to achieve COD in May/June 2020.
DK66

DK66, Please kindly post again your article mentioned below as it could not be accessed. Thank you.

Posted by DK66 > Feb 18, 2020 8:22 PM | Report Abuse
Jaks Resources - The Final Count Down ! (Turbine is Almost Ready)
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-18-story-h1...

Blog content not available. Please check out other item.

In the stock market there is a hugh mismatch between perception and reality, which investors can take advantage of. For example, Kumpulan Powernet was awarded a contract to construct a 8 MW hydropower plant in Laos. It is not even the owner of the hydropower plant and it has no claims on the profits of the hydropower plant. It is just a contractor for the RM 65.88 million project. Yet its share price shot up 0.35 sen daily on 11 Feb and 12 Feb. This morning it was up another 0.19 sen.
For comparison, JAKS has a 30 - 40% ownership of the 1200 MW (effective 360 - 480 MW) coal fired power plant in Vietnam that is scheduled to go on production for electricity for a next 25 years, as per its concession agreement, that is estimated to generate RM300 million profits per year for the next 25 years.

Yet the market gave it only an anemic 0.03 sen rise for the last few days and it is struggling to cross its resistance level of 1.51, whereas KPower is way above 2.70. Street smart savvy investors can see this mismatch pricing which provides a golden opportunity to profit from it.

Joeshare, please check your facts before you start accusing China. MERS was started in the Middle East and H1N1 was started in the United States. H1N1 affected more than 1.0 million people and there were more than 300,000 death. So your hero, USA, had responded worse than China

Thank you DK66 and TST 1234. WOW! This is the best Chinese New Year Angpow!!!

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/53847.jsp
MFCB - Begins Transmission To Cambodia
Date: 16/01/2020
Source : PUBLIC BANK
Stock : MFCB
Price Target : 6.29 | Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 5.50 | Upside/Downside : +0.79 (14.36%)

Back
________________________________________

We came away from our meeting with Mega First (MFCB) last Friday with the confirmation that constructions of the Don Sahong Hydropower plant together with the transmission lines in Laos and Cambodia have been fully completed. All four turbines are fully commissioned amid the on-going dry season in Laos. The company is also escalating the process for the construction of a 5th turbine which is expected to take about 2 years. Given the softer global interest rate environment, we impute lower borrowing costs at both the operating (Don Sahong plant) and Group (MFCB) levels, which consequently lifts our SOP based TP to RM6.29 (RM5.71 previously). Outperform call is affirmed.

• Selling 195MW to Cambodia. 195MW of power generated from 3 turbines is transmitted from the plant in the Champassak province to the Stung Treng electricity substation in Cambodia through the new high voltage 500kV transmission lines. The remaining 65MW will be channeled to the Ban Hat substation for domestic usage. Under the purchase agreement, the Cambodian government will buy a total of 2,900MW from Laos between 2020 and 2027, of which 500MW will come from hydropower plants at a price of 7.29 US cents/kWh and 2,400MW from coal-fired power plants for 7.70 US cents/kWh. Meanwhile, Electricite du Laos will purchase the power from the Don Sahong hydropower plant at a price of 6.15 US cents/kWh based on a “take or pay” basis.

• Depending on the availability of electricity production. Though the four turbines have a combined installed capacity of 260MW/hour which can generate up to 2,000 GWh p.a., electricity production will ultimately be subject to water levels. Based on our channel checks, water levels have dropped by 10% from its normal level as the country is currently experiencing dry weather conditions until late-April. The utilization rate is expected to be lower in the coming months, averaging 76%-81%. Our assumption is based on a full-year utilization rate of 88% as electricity production could potentially hit maximum capacity during the wet period in May-Sept.

• 5th turbine on the way. Management has received approval-in-principle for a 5th turbine at the same site. The targeted capacity is around 50MW-65MW with an expected capex of USD50m-60m. Management plans to speed up the approval process before its EPCC contractor, Sinohydro re-mobilizes its resources elsewhere. It will be a key re-rating catalyst for the Group, potentially contributing an additional 20%-25% to the Group’s bottom line starting from 2022.

• Lower borrowing costs. We cut our assumption on the finance cost by 1.5% at both the operating (Don Sahong) and Group (MFCB) levels in light of the softer interest rate environment. However, the earnings impact is relatively small as the cost saving was offset by lower earnings forecasts on the resources segment given the weak global demand. Our TP is consequently lifted to RM6.29 from RM5.71. Meanwhile, management had earlier guided that the Don Sahong project cost will be lowered from USD401m to USD366m given the lower-than-expected borrowing costs

Source: PublicInvest Research - 16 Jan 2020

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50677525/laos-links-195mw-power-to-cambodia
Laos links 195MW power to Cambodia
Chea Vannak / Khmer Times Share:

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/tag/dan-sahong-dam/
January 8, 2020
Laos links 195MW power to Cambodia
Chea Vannak / Khmer Times Share:

The latest hydropower station in Laos is selling electricity to Cambodia. KT/Chor Sokunthea

Nearly 200 megawatts (MW)of electricity from Dan Sahong Dam in Laos was linked to Cambodia’s national grid yesterday after the dam finished tests on four electricity generators.
The power linking was made between interim transmitters in Laos and transmitters in Cambodia’s Stung Treng province.
The official importation is scheduled to be brought in the first quarter this year, said Victor Jona, director general of Energy at Ministry of Mines and Energy yesterday.
Once in official operation, the 195MW will be carried from the dam to the border which is then linked to a 230kV transmission line in Stung Treng province to Phnom Penh, Jona said.
“The link is to prepare for the official transaction process of importing power from Laos to Cambodia in the first quarter this year,” Jona said.
The $500 million dam, invested by Malaysia’s Mega First Corporation Berhad and EDL-Generation Public Company, which carry 80 percent share and 20 percent share, respectively, was built on the Mekong River in Laos’s southern Champasak province, just two kilometers north of Cambodia.
The plant has an installed capacity of 260MW.
According to Jona, the price of the 195MW power purchase agreement is $0.073 per kilowatt hour, which Cambodia’s Electricity Authority (EDC) implements with a power deal.
The Vientiane Times reported in October the dam started four electricity generators in last year, after construction started earlier in 2016.
Currently, Cambodia imports power from Laos between 50MW to 70MW.
Cambodia and Laos also reached an agreement of a 2,400MW power purchase which is scheduled to start in 2024. The power, under the purchase agreement, will be generated from coal-fired power plants, located in Laos.
“Currently, power imported from Laos is still small and once the 195MW has been made the amount of power in 2024 imported from Laos will be increasing higher,” Jona said.
The government is also building high 500kV transmission line from Phnom Penh to the border of Laos for carrying 2,400MW once in operation.

http://vepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/MOIT_Report_58_BC_BCT.pdf

This official document by the Vietnamese Ministry of Trade and Industry clearly showed that the country is short of electricity supply. Therefore there is no doubt that JAKS will be able to sell all their electricity generated by their 2x600 MW power plant.

So this current correction is only a small dot and will be forgotten in one year's time.

The KLCI is down 15.00 points. Not just JAKS

Hi, DK66.
Most of your profit estimates for JAKS and MFCB are based on the foreign exchange rate of US$1.00 to RM 4.20. I wonder whether these two stocks would be still attractive investments if the exchange rate is suddenly pegged again to US$1.00 to RM 2.80, as in 1998.

Could you please kindly look into this Scenario? Thank you.

OMG!The Naysayers are having a field day today.

At times like today,the words of a very famous investor ring true:

"Be fearful, when others are greedy,
Be greedy, when others are fearful"

There are a 101 reasons for selling:-

To buy a new car, new house, to fund children's education, for wedding celebrations for another new wife or concubine, to buy a 600K watch, diamond or Birkin handbag for a new girl friend etc, etc.

But there is only ONE reason for buying:-
To make more money on the investment.

So DON'T worry about people selling.

ONLY Worry about whether the share you are going to buy is worth buying or not, whether the growth in future earnings and EPS is significant enough to push the share price higher and higher.

For convenience,I have summarised the target price for easy reference:

Estimated Target Price for JAKS by DK66
From 30% Sharing From 40% Sharing
EPS= 0.446 EPS =0.595
PE Price PE Price
10 4.46 10 5.95
12 5.35 12 7.14
14 6.24 14 8.33
15 6.69 15 8.92
16 7.13 16 9.52
18 8.02 18 10.7
20 8.92 20 11.90

PUBLIC INVESTMENT BANK PublicInvest Research Company Update
MFCB Estimated EPS

FYE Dec (RM m) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F
CAGR Revenue 915.4 910.8 782.0 591.5 777.5 -4.0%
Gross Profit 227.8 229.6 219.0 165.6 349.9 11.3%
Pre-tax Profit 199.6 192.9 173.2 127.2 303.0 11.0%
Core Net Profit 120.7 110.4 120.7 88.6 231.8 17.7%
EPS (Sen) 31.6 28.9 31.7 23.2 60.8 17.7%
P/E (x) 10.2 11.1 10.2 13.9 5.3
DPS (Sen) 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 30.0
Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.9

EPS 0.608 (2020)
P/E 10 12 14 15 16 18 20
Est. Price 6.08 7.29 8.51 9.12 9.72 10.94 12.16

With the addition of the 5th turbine, estimated EPS will be 20% more = 0.729
P/E 10 12 14 15 16 18 20
Est. Price 7.29 8.74 10.20 10.93 11.66 13.12 14.58

Posted by Ricky Kiat > Dec 4, 2019 12:33 AM | Report Abuse

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2019/12/3/art_8427_2029661.html
越南海阳燃煤电厂工程二号机组厂用电受电plant 一次成功

This refers to the power plant at Haiyang, and the Chinese contractor is apcc2.

JAKS power plant is in Hai Duong and its JV partner is China Power Engineering Consulting Group (CPECC).

Can someone please enlighten me, whether these two comments refer to the same project undertaken by JAKS. Thank you.