Followers
15
Following
0
Blog Posts
404
Threads
18,659
Blogs
Threads
Portfolio
Follower
Following
2020-05-06 09:40 | Report Abuse
Buy buy buy
It is running away while you guys are busy doubting
2020-05-06 08:58 | Report Abuse
Anyway I don’t understand what is a “banker in Malakoff” ? Malakoff is not a bank
2020-05-06 08:57 | Report Abuse
I did not say I work for malakoff
I was a banker that handle Malakoff case
2020-05-06 08:56 | Report Abuse
Ya Philips is the best
Everybody else is unscrupulous and stupid
2020-05-06 08:31 | Report Abuse
Apart from enticing investors to invest, another main reason why IPP concession is structured in such an attractive way is to facilitate debt funding . Who dares to lend so much money for so Long time without strong visibility ?
2020-05-06 06:53 | Report Abuse
If you read my explanation above, then you can understand why I never participate in all these discussions about thermal efficiency , coal price etc. They all don’t matter。The concession agreement is structured to absorb all of their effect so as to deliver a certain pre determined return to investors (in this case、 Jaks and CEEPC)
2020-05-06 06:45 | Report Abuse
It doesn’t really matter what is the thermal efficiency etc
Because the concession agreement is structured to accommodate them
Let’s say vin tahn thermal efficiency is 70% and Hai Duong 50%
Under that kind of circumstances, during negotiation , vin tahn will agree to electricity sale price of let’s say RM100 per unit. However, since hai Duong cost is 21% higher (50% divided by 70% is 79%), it will ask for sale price of RM121 so as to cost pass through (and allow it to achieve same return as vin tahn !) (hey, that guy next door get paid RM50 per hour, I am doing the same thing during the same time, why should I get less ?)
In other words, IPP concessions are structured based on internationally accepted return
No matter what the operating parameters , in order to attract investors to set up the power plant, the government will have to promise certain FIXED return
Meaning they will have to absorb the fluctuation or variation of operational costs caused by different technology and other parameters
You don’t absorb I don’t invest
In other words, you don’t give me the return I like , I don’t invest
That is how it works
And that is why people like IPP model
2020-05-06 06:32 | Report Abuse
I think probability does not yet have a proper understanding of the IPP model.
You don’t actually need to give too much weightage to thermal efficiency etc
As a banker that handles Malakoff when I was working, i have the chance to deeply understand their cash flow and profit (btw, Malakoff auditor and reporting accountant was KPMG). : )
(For your info, Malakoff has 5 IPPs under its wing and I have chance to know all of their details)
In Malakoff IPP case , 80% of the profit is capacity payment, the rest 20% is energy payment
Meaning 80% of the profit is independent of operational cost or electricity production . As Long as you provide the plant at let’s say 95% capacity availability , the customer (government) will pay you in full (that is why it is called Take or Pay). This is called capacity payment. And as mentioned above, it makes up 80% of the profitability
Then there is this thing called energy payment. You sell energy to the customer (in this case , Vietnam government). The more you sell, the more the customer pay you. That is of course the revenue level. As for cost, items beyond the operator’s control such as coal price etc, is cost passed through. The higher the coal price the higher the electricity selling price to the customer and vice versa . However,for items such as salary, chemical, maintenance etc, those are not allowed to be passed through . This is to ensure the operator maintain certain level of efficiency (be thrifty, lean and mean etc)
The energy payment makes up only 20% of profitability
As such, when come to modelling, you don’t really need to care too much about energy payment related profitability . The most important thing is to ensure the plant is able to deliver the capacity availability as stipulated in agreement then you can pocket 80% profitability already
2020-05-05 12:23 | Report Abuse
Unit 1 in June
If you read Connie article recently
2020-05-02 10:34 | Report Abuse
My old article below explains why you don’t need to worry about associate stake not conducive for dividend payment
Only ignorant persons believe that
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-01-03-story188684-_Icon_MBM_Resources_2_The_Myth_About_Associate_Stake.jsp
2020-05-01 15:05 | Report Abuse
somebody mentioned recently (I forgot who) that upon COD, Hai Duong will “gradually scale up dependent on usage”
If I am not wrong, under Take or Pay concept, there is no “gradual scaling up dependent on usage”. From day 1, it is payment based on full capacity already Because they have made full capacity available to its client (Vietnam government)
That is why It is called capacity payment
2020-05-01 14:56 | Report Abuse
DK66 noted your 18 years tenure
2020-05-01 14:55 | Report Abuse
Does a project have to fully repay borrowings before it can generate profit ?
I find the statement weird
————
probability : If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.
2020-05-01 14:51 | Report Abuse
Thanks for your input, unfortunately I am not able to either agree to it or refute it as I have not seen this before
If you can provide me with the relevant theoretical reasoning (an article or pages of the textbook), then I will be able to make a better decision whether to revise the model
probability
11405 posts
Posted by probability > May 1, 2020 2:29 PM | Report Abuse
I think you should exclude the Interest deduction on your FCF used to show the IRR of 12%.
Project IRR is assuming the whole asset is funded without Debt - 100% equity.
....
Will go through in detail and find out why its not matching my derivation of about 140M profit/annum with 2 units operating.
2020-05-01 14:41 | Report Abuse
Wow thanks !
2020-05-01 14:31 | Report Abuse
Ok I will amend accordingly
Any other mistake ? Please help me identify
2020-05-01 14:29 | Report Abuse
You are welcome to come up with your figures and put it in the forum, I will incorporate into my model if make sense
It should only affect the profit figure (which I already say I can live with RM200 mil push come to shove)
The Cashflow and IRR should still be the same
2020-05-01 14:27 | Report Abuse
assuming you are right, then net profit drops from RM318 mil to RM200 mil
Jaks is still investable
That is how I look at it
2020-05-01 14:16 | Report Abuse
Bring it on
See who pookai first
2020-05-01 14:11 | Report Abuse
oh start operating June 2020 ? that is just next month !!!
thanks Connie (both for the COD date as well as Choivo bashing)
2020-12-23 20:35 | Report Abuse
RM1.5 ?
Next year RM2 ?
After that RM3 ?
2020-05-01 12:19 | Report Abuse
thanks DK66
I am making good progress on my article
it has information that you have never seen before (meaning I am not warming up cold fried rice for you to eat)
and it jibes very well with profit projection of RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (comes out naturally without me massaging the figures)
in other words, it support the arguments that profit can be RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (for the 30% stake)
2020-05-01 11:36 | Report Abuse
DK66 does Hai Duong need to pay tax ?
2024-04-16 16:40 | Report Abuse
exactly
you look at technology stocks
many of them will report lousy result in coming quarter (MCO leh, they close their factories)
but nobody cares, everybody chase the price up. Many of them are up almost 100% from the bottom
market is ignoring coming quarters and focusing on longer term potential
========
Invest_168 Niama, All ppl including the small kids also know the near term earning results will affected by MCO & corona effect for most of the companies...
30/04/2020 10:38 AM
2020-04-30 10:28 | Report Abuse
yesterday I pulled out a spreadsheet and did earning and cashflow projection for Jaks over next 25 years. According to my model, Jaks will receive free cash flow of RM200 mil per annum over next 25 years. Added together that would be RM5 billion
and the free cash flow is not in some distant future, it will start right when Hai Duong starts operation in coming 3rd Quarter 2020
when I look at RM5 billion future cash and then whatever problems Jaks is facing now (RM350 mil Evolve Mall borrowings, some LADs etc), I shrug
the positive impact of Hai Duong is so so so huge that it can easily offset whatever legacy problems Jaks has
buy now, don't hesitate, this stock can potentially go to RM3.00
2020-04-30 10:18 | Report Abuse
stop attacking OTB lah
lets just focus on debating stocks
otehrwise you are polluting the forum, causing us to waste time reading all these negative comments that don't add value
2020-04-18 18:18 | Report Abuse
just look at LCTitan
it announced RM170 mil losses yesterday, and today people rushed in to buy non stop
the market is ignoring near term weakness and focus on the future
2020-04-30 10:18 | Report Abuse
my point is that whatever shares you are holding, it is advisable to hold on and don't simply sell, because the next few months likely have positive and upward bias
2020-04-30 10:09 | Report Abuse
with a bit of good luck, September might not see the market tanking (despite cooling weather)
this is because Oxford University has said that they are targeting to produce Vaccine by September 2020. So if it really happens, stocks will take off like rocket again, because investors are forward looking and will interpret it as light at the end of the tunnel
and also, between now and September, there might be other positive developments at the medical front such as Remdesivir efficacy test is promising etc
2020-04-19 12:51 | Report Abuse
in one of his previous email, OTB also nervous of the Buy in November and Sell in May effect (May starts tomorrow !)
I have a different view. I believe this year "Sell in May" wont happen
this is because May signals the approaching of Summer in Northern Hemisphere
hot weather will help to combat covid19 there
so we are now actually entering a positive news flow season
stocks should be buoyant probably until September 2020 when weather starts cooling again
2020-04-19 16:52 | Report Abuse
who cares how much Jaks makes in the coming two quarters ? we all know that the future is Hai Duong, which can propel earning to RM200 mil plus
it is so near to completion now, selling Jaks due to some short term weakness is not a wise move
2020-04-30 09:56 | Report Abuse
I received the email from OTB too
I am surprised he chose to pay attention to the coming Q result to be released in May 2020
yes, it is true that Q1 FY2020 results might have downside risk, but even if that is the case, we should be ignoring it and focus on Hai Duong unit 1, which is to be completed in 3 to 4 months time
For me, still dumb dumb hold
2020-04-29 12:15 | Report Abuse
I am busy writing an article about Jaks
2020-04-28 09:45 | Report Abuse
their shares funded by Maybank and RHB margin
2020-04-22 13:05 | Report Abuse
bought supermax also
========
Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD
Mar 26, 2020 11:46 AM | Report Abuse
buy now before miss the boat
2020-04-22 13:04 | Report Abuse
I bought on 26 March
==========
Stock: [COMFORT]: COMFORT GLOVES BHD
Mar 26, 2020 11:47 AM | Report Abuse
buy now before miss the boat
2020-04-22 12:15 | Report Abuse
this question is irrelevant (I can't believe I need to answer it)
Andy ang name doesn't show up doesn't mean he is not buying
2020-04-17 10:29 | Report Abuse
I am hoping for 2.00 by end of this year
2020-04-17 10:13 | Report Abuse
taking off, no look back already
penggoreng will buy whatever it can as market has officially bottomed
they will never see this level of valuation anymore
dumb dumb hold don't go in and out like a dog fxxking
2020-04-07 14:54 | Report Abuse
Dumb dumb hold don’t go in an out like make doggy love
Stock: [YINSON]: YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
2 months ago | Report Abuse
FPSO Maria Quitéria begins operations in the pre-salt Campos Basin
evan1313 evan1313
2 hours ago
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras communicates that FPSO Maria Quitéria initiated today production operations in the Jubarte field, located in the pre-salt Campos Basin in the area known as Parque das Baleias, in the State of Espírito Santo.
The unit has the capacity to produce up to 100 thousand barrels of oil per day and process up to 5 million cubic meters of gas daily. The project will have eight producing wells and eight injectors.
FPSO Maria Quitéria began operating before scheduled, given that the initial forecast was for 2025, according to the 2024-2028 Strategic Plan.
The platform is equipped with technologies to reduce emissions with greater operational efficiency combined with a reduction of around 24% in operational greenhouse gas emissions.
The FPSO, which measures 156 meters high and 333 meters long, is installed in a water depth of 1,385 meters, in the Jubarte field.
Parque das Baleias Integrated Project
The Parque das Baleias area is formed by the Jubarte, Baleia Anã, Cachalote, Caxaréu, Pirambú and Mangangá fields. Jubarte, the first filed, was discovered in 2001. In 2019, Petrobras and the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) signed an extension agreement for the concession term of the new unified Jubarte field until 2056, which allowed the FPSO Maria Quitéria to be implemented, a new production system for the Parque das Baleias Integrated Project, in addition to other complementary projects in the area.
Three other platforms are currently in operation at Parque das Baleias: P-57, P-58 and FPSO Cidade de Anchieta. With the operational startup of Maria Quitéria, this unit will account for approximately 40% of the field’s production when it is completed.
Petrobras is the sole holder of production rights for the Jubarte field.