Icon8888 | Joined since 2013-07-25

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2020-05-06 09:40 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy

It is running away while you guys are busy doubting


2020-05-06 08:58 | Report Abuse

Anyway I don’t understand what is a “banker in Malakoff” ? Malakoff is not a bank


2020-05-06 08:57 | Report Abuse

I did not say I work for malakoff

I was a banker that handle Malakoff case


2020-05-06 08:56 | Report Abuse

Ya Philips is the best

Everybody else is unscrupulous and stupid


2020-05-06 08:31 | Report Abuse

Apart from enticing investors to invest, another main reason why IPP concession is structured in such an attractive way is to facilitate debt funding . Who dares to lend so much money for so Long time without strong visibility ?


2020-05-06 06:53 | Report Abuse

If you read my explanation above, then you can understand why I never participate in all these discussions about thermal efficiency , coal price etc. They all don’t matter。The concession agreement is structured to absorb all of their effect so as to deliver a certain pre determined return to investors (in this case、 Jaks and CEEPC)


2020-05-06 06:45 | Report Abuse

It doesn’t really matter what is the thermal efficiency etc

Because the concession agreement is structured to accommodate them

Let’s say vin tahn thermal efficiency is 70% and Hai Duong 50%

Under that kind of circumstances, during negotiation , vin tahn will agree to electricity sale price of let’s say RM100 per unit. However, since hai Duong cost is 21% higher (50% divided by 70% is 79%), it will ask for sale price of RM121 so as to cost pass through (and allow it to achieve same return as vin tahn !) (hey, that guy next door get paid RM50 per hour, I am doing the same thing during the same time, why should I get less ?)

In other words, IPP concessions are structured based on internationally accepted return

No matter what the operating parameters , in order to attract investors to set up the power plant, the government will have to promise certain FIXED return

Meaning they will have to absorb the fluctuation or variation of operational costs caused by different technology and other parameters

You don’t absorb I don’t invest

In other words, you don’t give me the return I like , I don’t invest

That is how it works

And that is why people like IPP model


2020-05-06 06:32 | Report Abuse

I think probability does not yet have a proper understanding of the IPP model.

You don’t actually need to give too much weightage to thermal efficiency etc

As a banker that handles Malakoff when I was working, i have the chance to deeply understand their cash flow and profit (btw, Malakoff auditor and reporting accountant was KPMG). : )

(For your info, Malakoff has 5 IPPs under its wing and I have chance to know all of their details)

In Malakoff IPP case , 80% of the profit is capacity payment, the rest 20% is energy payment

Meaning 80% of the profit is independent of operational cost or electricity production . As Long as you provide the plant at let’s say 95% capacity availability , the customer (government) will pay you in full (that is why it is called Take or Pay). This is called capacity payment. And as mentioned above, it makes up 80% of the profitability

Then there is this thing called energy payment. You sell energy to the customer (in this case , Vietnam government). The more you sell, the more the customer pay you. That is of course the revenue level. As for cost, items beyond the operator’s control such as coal price etc, is cost passed through. The higher the coal price the higher the electricity selling price to the customer and vice versa . However,for items such as salary, chemical, maintenance etc, those are not allowed to be passed through . This is to ensure the operator maintain certain level of efficiency (be thrifty, lean and mean etc)

The energy payment makes up only 20% of profitability

As such, when come to modelling, you don’t really need to care too much about energy payment related profitability . The most important thing is to ensure the plant is able to deliver the capacity availability as stipulated in agreement then you can pocket 80% profitability already


2020-05-05 12:23 | Report Abuse

Unit 1 in June

If you read Connie article recently


2020-05-02 10:34 | Report Abuse

My old article below explains why you don’t need to worry about associate stake not conducive for dividend payment

Only ignorant persons believe that


News & Blogs

2020-05-01 15:05 | Report Abuse

somebody mentioned recently (I forgot who) that upon COD, Hai Duong will “gradually scale up dependent on usage”

If I am not wrong, under Take or Pay concept, there is no “gradual scaling up dependent on usage”. From day 1, it is payment based on full capacity already Because they have made full capacity available to its client (Vietnam government)

That is why It is called capacity payment

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:55 | Report Abuse

Does a project have to fully repay borrowings before it can generate profit ?

I find the statement weird


probability : If the project runs smoothly without any hitches, Vinh Tan 1 Power Co., Ltd. will be able to pay off all debts and start generating profits 18 years after the plant starts commercial operation.

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:51 | Report Abuse

Thanks for your input, unfortunately I am not able to either agree to it or refute it as I have not seen this before

If you can provide me with the relevant theoretical reasoning (an article or pages of the textbook), then I will be able to make a better decision whether to revise the model

11405 posts
Posted by probability > May 1, 2020 2:29 PM | Report Abuse

I think you should exclude the Interest deduction on your FCF used to show the IRR of 12%.

Project IRR is assuming the whole asset is funded without Debt - 100% equity.

Will go through in detail and find out why its not matching my derivation of about 140M profit/annum with 2 units operating.

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:31 | Report Abuse

Ok I will amend accordingly

Any other mistake ? Please help me identify

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:29 | Report Abuse

You are welcome to come up with your figures and put it in the forum, I will incorporate into my model if make sense

It should only affect the profit figure (which I already say I can live with RM200 mil push come to shove)

The Cashflow and IRR should still be the same

News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:27 | Report Abuse

assuming you are right, then net profit drops from RM318 mil to RM200 mil

Jaks is still investable

That is how I look at it

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2020-05-01 14:11 | Report Abuse

oh start operating June 2020 ? that is just next month !!!

thanks Connie (both for the COD date as well as Choivo bashing)


2020-05-01 14:06 | Report Abuse

RM1.5 ?

Next year RM2 ?

After that RM3 ?


2020-05-01 12:12 | Report Abuse

two more hours should be done


2020-05-01 12:05 | Report Abuse

thanks DK66

I am making good progress on my article

it has information that you have never seen before (meaning I am not warming up cold fried rice for you to eat)

and it jibes very well with profit projection of RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (comes out naturally without me massaging the figures)

in other words, it support the arguments that profit can be RM200 mil to RM300 mil per annum (for the 30% stake)


2020-05-01 11:36 | Report Abuse

DK66 does Hai Duong need to pay tax ?


2020-04-30 11:58 | Report Abuse

No free email


2020-04-30 11:57 | Report Abuse

I subscribed OTB


2020-04-30 10:42 | Report Abuse


you look at technology stocks

many of them will report lousy result in coming quarter (MCO leh, they close their factories)

but nobody cares, everybody chase the price up. Many of them are up almost 100% from the bottom

market is ignoring coming quarters and focusing on longer term potential


Invest_168 Niama, All ppl including the small kids also know the near term earning results will affected by MCO & corona effect for most of the companies...
30/04/2020 10:38 AM


2020-04-30 10:28 | Report Abuse

yesterday I pulled out a spreadsheet and did earning and cashflow projection for Jaks over next 25 years. According to my model, Jaks will receive free cash flow of RM200 mil per annum over next 25 years. Added together that would be RM5 billion

and the free cash flow is not in some distant future, it will start right when Hai Duong starts operation in coming 3rd Quarter 2020

when I look at RM5 billion future cash and then whatever problems Jaks is facing now (RM350 mil Evolve Mall borrowings, some LADs etc), I shrug

the positive impact of Hai Duong is so so so huge that it can easily offset whatever legacy problems Jaks has

buy now, don't hesitate, this stock can potentially go to RM3.00


2020-04-30 10:18 | Report Abuse

stop attacking OTB lah

lets just focus on debating stocks

otehrwise you are polluting the forum, causing us to waste time reading all these negative comments that don't add value


2020-04-30 10:14 | Report Abuse

just look at LCTitan

it announced RM170 mil losses yesterday, and today people rushed in to buy non stop

the market is ignoring near term weakness and focus on the future


2020-04-30 10:13 | Report Abuse

my point is that whatever shares you are holding, it is advisable to hold on and don't simply sell, because the next few months likely have positive and upward bias


2020-04-30 10:12 | Report Abuse

with a bit of good luck, September might not see the market tanking (despite cooling weather)

this is because Oxford University has said that they are targeting to produce Vaccine by September 2020. So if it really happens, stocks will take off like rocket again, because investors are forward looking and will interpret it as light at the end of the tunnel

and also, between now and September, there might be other positive developments at the medical front such as Remdesivir efficacy test is promising etc


2020-04-30 10:08 | Report Abuse

in one of his previous email, OTB also nervous of the Buy in November and Sell in May effect (May starts tomorrow !)

I have a different view. I believe this year "Sell in May" wont happen

this is because May signals the approaching of Summer in Northern Hemisphere

hot weather will help to combat covid19 there

so we are now actually entering a positive news flow season

stocks should be buoyant probably until September 2020 when weather starts cooling again


2020-04-30 09:58 | Report Abuse

who cares how much Jaks makes in the coming two quarters ? we all know that the future is Hai Duong, which can propel earning to RM200 mil plus

it is so near to completion now, selling Jaks due to some short term weakness is not a wise move


2020-04-30 09:56 | Report Abuse

I received the email from OTB too

I am surprised he chose to pay attention to the coming Q result to be released in May 2020

yes, it is true that Q1 FY2020 results might have downside risk, but even if that is the case, we should be ignoring it and focus on Hai Duong unit 1, which is to be completed in 3 to 4 months time

For me, still dumb dumb hold


2020-04-29 12:15 | Report Abuse

I am busy writing an article about Jaks


2020-04-28 09:45 | Report Abuse

check the annual report


2020-04-28 09:45 | Report Abuse

their shares funded by Maybank and RHB margin


2020-04-22 13:05 | Report Abuse

bought supermax also


Mar 26, 2020 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

buy now before miss the boat


2020-04-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

I bought on 26 March


Mar 26, 2020 11:47 AM | Report Abuse

buy now before miss the boat


2020-04-22 12:20 | Report Abuse

there are many ways to do it


2020-04-22 12:19 | Report Abuse

this question is irrelevant (I can't believe I need to answer it)

Andy ang name doesn't show up doesn't mean he is not buying


2020-04-17 10:29 | Report Abuse

I am hoping for 2.00 by end of this year


2020-04-17 10:13 | Report Abuse

taking off, no look back already

penggoreng will buy whatever it can as market has officially bottomed

they will never see this level of valuation anymore

dumb dumb hold don't go in and out like a dog fxxking


2020-04-07 14:54 | Report Abuse

Dumb dumb hold don’t go in an out like make doggy love


2020-04-07 14:50 | Report Abuse

This company has some flaws

But it has a goose that lay golden eggs

I think the IPP every year can make easily RM200 mil

Huat ah