Chart shows it’s a downtrending stock. Avoid !

Chart does not lie. It’s a downtrending stock. Avoid downtrending stocks !

Chart does not lie, it’s a down trending stock. Never buy a down trending stock

Hopefully go below 50!

When you are too old, your mind cannot function as before.

Time to add more ! I have lost respect for KYY . So old and yet still act so childish

Ya I nibbled some today . Good opp to add

Calvin has endless war chest ….non stop buy but strategy not so smart

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuelas-Largest-Oil-Refinery-Halts-Production-Amid-Blackout.amp.html

MM is sifu in trash talk. Got to give it to him . Kudos bro

Everyday MM says war almost over but never happen. When one keeps repeating nonsense , it shows how low IQ this person has.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/exxon-sees-massive-5-5-billion-refinery-windfall-as-prices-jump

https://nypost.com/2022/06/24/gas-prices-could-reach-apocalyptic-levels-during-hurricane-season-oil-expert/amp/

Quite clear rr88 is full of rubbish…

More likely base building for upleg

Johnzhanf - Loser also have to be called sifu - sifu loser la

MM - really spam sifu . Non stop repeating rubbish

Good time to bottom fish

Sliding oil price and high crack is best scenario for HY!

https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/world/2022/06/22/Drone-strike-suspected-in-Russian-oil-refinery-fire-near-Ukraine-border

Truly exciting times ahead. It all points to solid earnings going forward

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EIA-US-Refining-Capacity-Sinks-To-Near-Decade-Low.amp.html

Current market where crude is dropping and crack at highest is the best for HY. It helps on their cashflow and hedging

https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/companies/oil-refining-margins-at-new-highs-of-26-article-92270853/amp

Ya. Been nibbling this morning. Considering the downside risk and upside potential, it’s good chance to add

Shd be heading north soon.

Time to nibble again ! RSI is oversold

Nothing much to do but just to nibble some today ….lol

Petronm really rebounding fast . Hy soon to come

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/chevron-ceo-warns-not-to-count-on-new-us-oil-refinery

End of day, it”s stability which will be good for HY. Not the sharp volatility as it is detrimental to their hedging

Credit must be given to probability and otb for their efforts. Probability has shared some good insights.

Thanks for the facts Probability !

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/global-refiners-falter-efforts-keep-demand?type=malaysia

@ probability
What I was trying to explain is a sudden rise or spike in crude is very damaging to HY as it is very difficult to manage the hedging / future contracts and most time than not, u will have losses. A steady movement or flattish movement is easier to manage your hedges / future contracts

@otb

I think the worst is over for now. I suspect there will still be derivatives losses but to much smaller proportion. As I said , high crude oil prices does not translate to better profit for HY, in fact it can have negative impact. If you look at the past years, HY Makes more money not when crude is spiking so sharply but when crude is lower and stable. I prefer crude not to spike further but remain stable or even go lower . The key is of course the crack margin for their refined products .

As long as crack margin remains at this elevated value , I see Q2 PAT shd be at least 400-500mil ( after offseting derivatives due to hedging assuming crude does not spike too sharply )

There are basically 3 issues keeping crack margin so high:-
a) shortage of refining capacity in the world
b) demand for refined products and once China slowly opens up there economy, this shd increase demand further .
C) we are entering hurricane season and if a few refineries are hit in US, crack margin might have another spike .

Tq

Have a look at ORL.Ta share price ( Israeli refinery ) who posted a loss for 1st qtr due to derivatives . Share price is higher after merely a few days after the results

This is a wonderful opp for those who can see past this temporal setback. Downside risk is very minimal

Sonyx123,

It all depends on whether raw crude or refined prices move up faster. Sudden spike in short space of time makes it very difficult to have sufficient hedging. Imagine , if raw crude is spiking everyday , one would need to hedge frequently for their contracts to cover their delivery of their refined products. A Yo yo sharp movement for crude makes it even more difficult to hedge . If they feel crude is already too high, they could short but suddenly crude moves even higher causing their cost for delivery of refined products to spike and vice versa.

No, u cannot long the same contract but u can open a new contract

Hi Otb,

Just to clarity, there is a difference in options and future oil contracts.
Oil options do not require physical delivery at expiration, as is the case with some (but not all) crude oil futures contracts. In contrast, crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX require delivery at expiration. The trader short one futures contract must deliver 1,000 barrels of crude oil at the specified delivery point, while those with a long position must accept delivery.

If your case, if they short sell at usd13 and suddenly the price of diesel goes up, they would have to deliver at a certain date at the higher price / cover the short , hence losing money and vice versa.

@ probability

Share price of Israel’s Oil Refineries (ORL) (ORL.TA) also rebounded to higher levels in matter of 2-3 days

Mkt is foward looking . We shd buy looking towards better Q2

Can otb comment abt the results ?

rr88 so quiet ? I expect some noise from him

Must give credit to otb. When he is right, not many gives credit . When wrong, all come out to hentam.

Ya I agree. Probability gives facts and not just make comments simply . He deserves credit !

Last call, buy and forever hold you peace…..lol

Today c22 will be suspended

Going to break out soon to the upside !