TTL NET Short % of TTL NSP
Feb 22 6,397,288 0.11
23 7,111,588 0.12
24 7,332,988 0.13
25 7,888,588 0.14
28 8,241,288 0.14
Mar 1 8,203,288 0.14
2 9,179,888 0.16

Shorts are still happening , we cannot see the buy or sell differences in the report but you can observe the buy sell orders activity . The shortist will work hand in hand with EPF since they know when they plan to buy/selll since a year back. Since EPF is signaling to buy, shorties will encourage more volume of sellers to come in via rumours and try to keep the price down. It is game of average of sellling high and buy low for shorties , and big funds to sell high and pick up low

Revenue in the same quarter improved 52.4 per cent to RM15.74 billion from RM10.32 billion.
- under recovery of 3.21 B, operating expense increase 67% to 14.49B
- Qtrly Revenue improved 52.4 per cent to RM15.74 billion
- demand growth of 1.2 per cent, consistent with the country's gross - domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.1 per cent.
- ESG rating is improving

The under recovery of 3.21B should be reduce with Feb 022 ICBT approval. with 1.2% of demand growth roughl equals to 2,5 B in revenue. With GDP growth at ~6% ,2022 expect Qtrly revenue to be in region of 17-18B Rev. Something unseen before. PBT will be good if operating expenses can be control.

I don't claim to have insider information like some do :) but we have to learn to challenge the numbers and see it as it is. Only the big boys can influence Tenaga share turn around .

Very lonely shorties troopers. Very easy to predict stock actually if it is not going up , it has tendency to go down. At least we choose to move from gloves to something more stable since last year. Technology too risky and oil and gas, cannot predict who gets what contract. Palm oil still ok but boring

ICPT was meant to be neutral for TNB but it was delay for the last 2 years. Govt only allow starting Feb 22. -ICPT will be review every 6 months to all offset any difference in the generation prices, especially Coal.
This is part of the strategy to protect the national energy infrastructure by allowing enough profit to reinvest in the national grid .
Separate Point:
EPF has been selling of from a high of 17.03% in Feb2021 to date of 15.8 % in Feb 2022 of total TNB shares.
This is couple with the recent shorts activities that can be seen the last quarters. Usually they work hand in hand . This matters as intrinsically TNB has not change as the business model (ICPT and monopoly as part of national infrastructure protection) is still intact . No one can predict how low will it go but we can see the shorts sell down has been very well supported at 9.00
I am eager to wait for the Qtrly report tomorow to show us where the money really is.

---Full Excerpts----
<---The ICPT implementation for period 1 February 2022 until 30 June 2022 is as follows:

DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS NON-DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS
The ICPT rate for Domestic customers is as follows:

a. The ICPT rebate of 2.00 sen/kWh from the last ICPT implementation period is maintained for all Domestic customers.

The ICPT surcharge for Non-Domestic customers is as follows:

a. An ICPT surcharge of 3.70 sen/kWh will be applicable to all Non-Domestic customers.

----------->

Excerpts from TNB website on ICPT:-
<------------------------------
Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) implementation for the period of 1 February – 30 June 2022 are as follows:

The Government has decided to maintain the current electricity tariff schedule for all customers in Peninsular Malaysia for the 3rd Regulated Period (RP3) from 1 February 2022 to 31 December 2024 under the Incentive Based Tariff (IBR) mechanism.

Higher fuel and generation costs for the period of 1 July – 31 December 2021 has resulted to additional generation cost of RM1,672 million.

To cushion the impact of high fuel and generation cost to customers, the Government has agreed to utilize available funding from Kumpulan Wang Industri Elektrik (“KWIE”) amounting to RM715 million.

The ICPT implementation period 1 February 2022 until 30 June 2022 has been approved.
--------------------------------------->
Q4 earnings might be high 14 Billion but the PBT might be capped ~1- 1.2billion again. However good news the ICPT has been approved starting 1 feb 2022. Expact better Q1 onwards, provided Russia/Ukraine does not escalated further

Eventually shorties has to buy back, they won't get caught nearing dividend payment. Strong support at 9.00 . Qtrly end of the month with dividend announcement soon after. GDP growth at 5-6.5.
Shorties will shake out the weak holders before any uptrend is expected. How low we cannot predict.

Qtrly report coming end of the month. At the end of the day is the earnings that really counts, the rest are noises. Any ballpark prediction anywone? Based on trend/Daharki plant sale can be around 14B Revenue. PBT can be above 1.2 B hopefully. EPS of 20+ . If any negative accounting surprises will pull the stocks further down, which i don't see any at the moment.

Only the Qtrly reports will show us the direction . How cost is maintain and the 230 mill divestiture of the Daharki power plant and better Q4 revenue will increase the cash flow for the qtr. Should be able to increase the eps to 20ish pending no further surprises on how cost is maintain. Wishful thinking of Revenue nearing 14 billion and PBT of above 1.2 B. But year end accounting can be very tricky , lots of impairments loss vs the divestiture.

It has been a long one year wait. With the dividend yield of~8-9% at least we have peace of mind. Not much of a concern everyone deserves to be happy and richer but patience is key. Didn't expect the covid recovery to take more than 2 years. But omicron should b a savior variant base on the medical response not political or economic response from the ministry.
Good luck 2022.

Important is the increase revenue in Q3 amid the long MCO period. Q4 we can expect an even higher revenue 13billion ~+10% if the current economic opening is sustain. Cannot predict what EPF strategy is but they have to buy more sooner or later. Hopefully soon.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/epf-takes-profit-gains-seeks-better-timing-reenter-market

Sept data on EPF. Still selling across the board. Not sure for how long more. Hope the sun shine soon in December. Good luck everyone it has been a long wait this year.

Shorties technically will shake off the weak holders and good for the market efficiency. Tenaga is not overvalue at the moment and nothing to be concern about, only getting tired when the big funds will come in. They eventually will. But at least the volume is coming back. Good luck ! The sell placement volume looks like getting smaller yesterday.

Start of a new Qtr, I-Citra application ends, Ends. EPF sell off should taper and IB /foreign funds will return. Covid cases drop below 10k and recovery theme should be more sustanable in Q4, all electronics factories ramping and economic recovery looks a lot brighter now and 2022. Last opportunity to top up. Good luck to retailers.

This year EPF trend is to sell Qtrly ends and stabilized and uptrend within the next month. Consistently in Dec, Mar, Jun, sept... High potential on the I-Citra and other bantuan withdrawal . I citra ends sep 30, until furhter annoucement. It has a good accumulation month as it will rebound back above 10. This year we can only rely on the ~8-10% dividend . Still 3 months to go and this can be the last price below 9.8 ...Low risk entry. Good luck October.

Final discounted sale for the year :)

Tenaga still consistent , any retracement below 10 and looking at the price action, Good opportunity to buy. Might be the last round to hit below 10 for this year. Will top up , we see this quite often qtrly end.

~2.5 seems like a good price for SPMX. ~3.0 for TP, ~<6 for Harta?

KingKong The infamous JP Morgan price target 3.50 makes sense now. Thinking of swinging back to glove . Still cannot decide how low is low. But risk to reward gets better below 3.0

Anyone able to to provide intrinsic value based on DCF with no growth assumptions and/or 5 yrs growth from 2020? I had it at RM2.5~ to 2.8 . Still cannot decide with so many anecdotal market assumptions. Hopefully around this price to enter.

Global Third wave on covid cases is on a very steep downtrend since last week. I would suggest to wait a few more weeks before decided to go in. Ex date and drop in local cases this week onwards will also spook the market. Looking at the intrinsic value, DCF based on no growth is around ~2.50 range. Unchartered territory of evaluation. Welcome to debunk the risk vs profit , and fair price estimates.

TreeTopView , ok Will wait till 11.00 - 11.20 region, yet still have to grapple with the emotions of selling. Still learning to swing trade and sticking to the plan. We can't predict impairments as we usually don't have the privy to their accounting decisions.

Resistance level 10.42 can be easily broken next few days. Volume should be able to hold. Next resistance at 11.22. Tenaga is lower risk until the next political move. Hardest decision is when to sell
Good luck

Covid cases should be peaking this week and continue to drop after this week. Delta variant peak is around 5 weeks seen in india and UK. With the aggressive vaccination drive, 70% 2 dose rate for herd immunity will be achieve in mid sept. Now lets hope for a solution for a good transition on the political impasse. The market just need some good news and all good recovery stocks with strong fundamentals will benefit. Good luck guys.

Not bad but no cigar. Revenue stable , profit margin increases , company getting more efficient. Good buy at current price

Currently 4.40-4.43 looks low risk to go in. Strong support. Wait for reversal.

Good day to decide to go in , 9.70 good support and stable at 9.73. MACD cross over reversal potential in a few days.

How will DBS bank acquire citibank in Malaysia with only 2 branch in KL and Labuan . Will Bank Negara allow a singapore bank license to operate. If they insist on a merger which bank will be interested in ?
Affin will now owns only 30% of the insurance business. 1.29 Billion cash acquire. Citibank main profit is from its credit cards and some big banks will have issue of dual cards if they take over as usually citi customers will have another major local banks. Lets see how it play out

With DBS acquiring Citibank india commercial banking business, how will it play out for Citibank malaysia? WIth Hwang Capital (Name change use to be Hwang DBS) strong partnership in Malaysia ,will Affin stand to benefit from this. Rumours has it Hwang Captial has similar talk to take over the commercial bank as well in Malaysia. They hv sold the commercial banking business to Affin in 2014 however , Affin Hwang capital (part of affin group) might be involve as well to allow the current commercial banking assets of Affin banks to be utilized for this takeover. Time will tell.

https://singaporenewslive.com/dbs-in-advanced-talk-with-citibank-to-acquire-citis-consumer-banking-business-in-india/194872/

Malakoff was taken private in 2007 and relisted in 2015 IPO at 1.80/5bil shares It has been trading at ~0.85 all time low for many years now. With yearly dividend rate given out at 5-6%, SM Akbukary might consider taking it private again to create more liquidity/funding. Market cap of malakoff is even higher then MMC. It was either MMC or Malakoff to be taken private. Many banks/funds can provide better debt facility at lower 6% dividend payment given out. Similar situation for good companies in KLSE as liquidity opportunity is limited. Ananda Krishnan has the same problem as well.

Between MMC and Malakof Corp, they hold 40% of the total shareholders equities. Suspect there will be high activities on this counter as well. Objectives is to increase shareholding vales. Good luck guys.

I just contacted MBB. It will be credited by 3 pm today , batch by batch

Maybank trading account only bank in tnb dividend today. Slow. Checking on the forum discussion same old story naysayer vs uncertain retailers. Khazanah owns ~25% EPF +17% , KWAP/AS++ another 10% + other local funds Total ~75% . Foreign ~12.3%. Roughly 10% by u and me. Khazanah usually do not sell and EPF has reduce from high usually 17-18+ %. Sell down mainly from foreign , high of 17% to 12 % within the last year. Lowest in 10 yrs time and stable now. The current drop is at very low volume most likely by you and me. Nothing to be worry about just a low volume test.

I believe we are referring to the Group vs company. I was refering to the group

I was refering to their long term and short term debt. Current Liability will be short term debt that has to be service within the year.

Strong support at 0.84. Strong fundamentals. For risk averse investors. Yearly 10% -20% potential growth should be something old timers know how to appreciate. Not for young guns.

Total debt at 10.58 Bil. 10 yr average at 16.5 Bil. It has reduce significantly since 2016/17 report. Current ratio stable at 2.04 ~pass years. Liquidity ratio not a concern. total liability has also drop 24B to 18 Bil currently.
Divident payout ratio is near 100% of earnings...seems to be normal for utilities /IPP.
Current Stock price at 8.50-8.60 is a good bargain. Another well manage company.
Current price action looks good to enter as well.

3 white soldiers candle forming. High chance bullish trend to continue. Resistance at 5.

Foreign buyers are back...Good choice of fundamentals and technical charting will the fund managers picking. Good luck . The merger based on 2018/19 case might be neutral for Maxis. Digi/Axiata will have a good run too.

Reaching resistance level 4.49. Double bottom at this level. Very tricky situation. Will see a next few days. To cut lost if it goes below 4.45. Lets hope for the best the double bottom is the reversal.

EPF owns around 12% and PNB 10% of Maxis. KLSE is always political play. They remove Abdul Jalil from PNB (now Berjaya CEO) and appoint EPF Amir Hamzah (ex TNB CEO). Dr. M camps is still pulling the string but we will never know for certain which friends will help on the political funding's. Like it or not his business links is still strong. Now Abdul Jalil is buying Berjaya shares, not sure where he gets the money. I am confident Ananda Krishna and Dr.M son will not let Dr. M team down. Matter of timing. They even tried to give Altel 5G, just imagine that !.
Time to move out from BJ group and invest somewhere else. Will it hit Maxis soon?

The typical flag pole chart forming again. Slight Congestions before potential breakout. Above 10.84/10.88 if it happens next few days. If not wait again. Good luck and happy trading.

GE15 theme will be coming soon. Look out for the old horse business link and you will see the opportunity. Al Bulkary Group, YTL, VT, AK family and friends links. Still in the accumulation stage, look at the sudden price action and volume. By the time the news come retailers will be late in the game.

The big funds portfolio rebalancing until end qtr Mar. Looks like supermax, tglove, maxis is in the list. Gloves will hv a 2nd wind. Good luck. Tenaga drop no concern as buying volume is very high

Maxis is in accumulation phased by insiders. Anytime it goes lower, bigger volume will mop up end of the day. Accumulation might take a few more weeks or months. Insiders wish to bring it up or further down you decide. 10 years low. They will shake until all the fruits are down before deciding.
Good trading and happy weekend.

5G devices are all ready, chip manufacturing boom and phone assembly supply chain as well. Missing is the service provider in Malaysia and its spectrum license decision. (easy money for SPV here)
In summary the infrastructure are towers and their cell base stations. For a start they will utilized the existing non stand alone station based on 4g LTE and subsequently creating more stand alone stations. The none standalone base is already ready. With software license from 5g station supplier they can run it pretty fast.(Huawei /Ericson).
I suspect the collaboration announcement by Digi/Celcom immediately after the SPV announcement was to improve the infrastructure partnership in major cities which Maxis is focusing on. This is were the priority of 5G will be. Not the rural bases station which Celcom is focusing on. (due to national interest). Maxis has the advantage on major city where 5G will be important for manufacturing and services industries.
Good luck in your investment.

Axiata and Telenor Digi merger is in the news again. When that happens in May 2019 , both shares bounce and retracted shapely when the merger got cancel in sept that year. Axiata is a govt link company and corporate governance has been and issues. Have to read up on this to understand about the impact on Maxis. It was in general negative on Maxis but the share price were stable when this news was known in 2019. Would suggest to wait a few days on how things turn out. If can get below 4.60 is already a bargain. Usually merger and acquisition is not easy and comes with lot of complexity, layoffs, controls , anti competition law among others. It was drop earlier as they cannot get an agreement.

4.60 is a strong support level, very small volume now to move up and down. Bollinger band tightened for a few weeks now. Meaning the bear is getting tired. Good luck if you can get below 4.60. I personally went in at 4.60. Willing to wait it out. EPF is a substantial share holder and currently the funds are not fully in yet. Fund managers will still wait and see as global market is uncertain , still waiting for the US 1.9 Trillion stimulus approval status by March 15 in their Senate. I think the bond yield rising and inflation risk (>2.%)are all part of the economy stabilizing.

Investor moving out due to the SPV issues . Last year the new minister (PN) awarded the spectrum to Altel,digi,celcom,maxis and TM equally , only after 3 months change of government. This was U turn after the Telcos make a huge complain. All telco share price has drop since 1st qtr 2020, and now with the SPV set up, still very uncertain on how this will work. Initially it was mention 15Bil will be from Govt and now mixed messages that it will come from the private sector. Meaning get the Telco funding's to run 5G infrastructure and least it back to them?
This is industry is screwed by the politicians. However this allows us to pick the share price at rock bottom and as at the end of the day, customers are still waiting for 5G roll out.
Who will get the best spectrum ? Maxis has the best infrastructure to use 5G with TM controlling the fiber . Altel will usually lease it out to celcom /others to get money for doing nothing.
Altel is own by Al-bukary group .The tycoon runs various monopolies based on government licences such as in the distribution of rice and inspection of road vehicles and controls the postal service, several ports and media companies and now Telco. Welcome to malaysia. I am not concern as I am willing to wait as Telco is a hot necessity in this world

Should be 4.60+- reached support level. Getting old sorry but the rest of the analysis is pet chart.

The 5G SPV will be headed by Ralph Marshall, the right hand man for Ananda Krishnan. Notorious for the corruption cases in India during the 2G business Aircel. This case is nearly 10 years ago , this is the reason why FITCH has a downgrade on telco once SPV was set up. The Govt will have to invest 15 Billion (tax payers $) to kick start 5G in Malaysia, vs the PH plan to create a consortium to fund the set up by the Telco without using tax payers money.
Anyway if no concern on morality or corruption. Maxis might have an advantage together with TM