I remove my earlier post due to big Typo error :(. Q4 net profit should be around 1.2 -1.4 Billion range due to account policy and capital allowances if other operating condition remains the same. Once the foreign and local funds managers rebalance their portfolio by march , strong earnings and if Dividends/special Dividends are declared within the same month, expect a strong turn around . Hope the US 1.9 trillion stimulus is approved in the senate in March, this will allow liquidity to flow to this region as well amid a strengthening ringgit. Tenaga is lower risk investment and (don't worry about the 2017-2019 earnings drop due to CAPEX in overseas market/volatile input cost- this is over now)

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/767925/utility-sector-earnings-expected-to-grow-11

From UOB...old news but it is good discipline to understand the business you plan to invest in. I am hoping for a special dividend declaration within this few weeks. Tenaga dividend policy is 50-60% of earnings unless the choose to donate as CSR program. All the best !

Oh I just realized Qtrly report will be delayed to March. 2021 earnings are expected to grow by 11% . Klse short term is controlled by sentimental; long term by fundamental. Volume are too small currently. Have to wait for local and foreign fund managers to make the move. Good luck everyone.

@MYWB. Thank you for highlighting the coal input price increase to about USD70 per MT. The average forecast is at USD 75 per MT based on 2020 annual report. Anything above the average pricing TNB will kick in the ICPT cost pass thru.
I am not aware of the super commodity cycle , but sure is intriguing . No cost of concern for the share holders but as customers i hate to pay higher bill. Usually coal price will increase in the winter and drop back down during summer months. No cause for alarm at the moment. MACD chart still in buy mode and no cross over signal at the moment . 9.70 was the buy signal 2 weeks back if not mistaken.
But I do appreciate all watchmen to trigger thoughts and analysis to keep us on our toes. Thank you.

@Tree Top View
So refreshing to read good honest analysis compare to the glove forum. I once tried to provide simple data advice on wrong assumptions and half truth and was compounded with expletives. I have stop giving advice to start looking into recovery stocks as a hedge. The safest bad based on key ratio ROE/PB/PE/current ratio..and overall risk return is still Tenaga. I was also looking into Yinson for oil and gas which I believe is cyclical in nature. Any observation on other recovery industry apart from utility? Cheers to you and may everyone prospers.

Coal is the cheapest at the moment however any cost increase there is a pass through mechanism. Not to debate on carbon tax but in general tnb is also committed on solar farms and gas. Anyway the part about being the government cash cow is also true but in general I do wish the government can be more predictable. Everyone deserves that. Previous issues was on the solar fit in license was given to certain quarters and technically this is a like subsidies to make money. This is known fact but not a concern now. Have a good trading week and Gong xi Fatt Choy.

MACD(Day) finally cross over during the last trading day. I think we should be on a reversal . This forum is to share to allow fellow investors to learn and earn. I personally are into recovery stocks and has move from pandemic to recovery stocks. If anyone uses other analysis pls share when leading indicators are clear. Tenaga fundamentals are not a concern. Good luck everyone.

@staedy ,
No intention to hoodwink anyone,
Supermax is still a good company to invest on at the moment, everyone is still struggling on the projection but we should balance our portfolios if we see something risky.
Important is to provide facts and figure so that everyone is well inform be it positive or negative. you can also check with US CDC all provide the same statement.
I am struggling to figure if overcapacity will happen in the industry once covid is under control.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/COVID-19VaccineGloveGuidance.pdf

1) Confirm gloves not needed when giving vaccines.
https://nurse.org/articles/cdc-ok-with-gloveless-vaccines/
2) 110 million vaccines administered to date. Efficacy report continue to be good. Many fake anti vaxxers new around.
3) Worldometer side clearly shows global rate dropping sharply. Malaysia is badly manage , no long term concern .
4) Gloves will still be needed but do not be overly optimistic about the growth of this industry.
5) The reason PE is lower for Glove/PPE industry is that it is based on special event condtion and is lower compare with PE for technology stock that is on a growth path like E-Car, Semicon or 5 G. To hope gloves will be a mainstream usage is unlikely event.

MACD indicators, crossover signal is about to merge. If today closing maintain as in the morning, very good signal to buy. Anyway very rare people look into fundamentals and technical. Many just have wishful thinking on investment. Good luck and stay safe for CNY

On a soft note. Tenaga is a retirees counter. Those looking for ~10% profit including the dividends . This is a gem, old person's stock. We cannot stand the speculative stocks. Look at the expletives in the glove counters. Last year divident at ~9% and yearly~ 5-6 % is much better then FD. :)

Based on fundamentals, low risk to buy at this price. RSI is over sold but MacD does not seems to have a cross over pattern to buy yet, very stable line. Actually only if the fund managers come back you will see a up swing. Currently retail investor are just not able to make it move

1)Us hospitalization rate : down for last one month
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-us/

2)Global Covid Cases: drop to < 400k per day, lowest since oct 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

3)Vaccination Rate : 100 million (~1 month),4-5 milliion a day
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=c...

Sharing of data for everyone to figure out if the projected ASP will hold with current scenario and will there be changes in TP projection by fund managers. Make your own correlation and challenge the assumptions and make own decisions base on data.

1)Us hospitalization rate : down for last one month
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-us/

2)Global Covid Cases: drop to < 400k per day, lowest since oct 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

3)Vaccination Rate : 100 million (~1 month),4-5 milliion a day
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&country=~OWID_WRL&region=World

Sharing of data for everyone to figure out if the projected ASP will hold with current scenario and will there be changes in TP projection by fund managers. Make your own correlation and challenge the assumptions

The wish is for everyone to invest wisely and prosper. Everyone deserves that . Very important to look at economic fundamentals that make sense and do not get burn in case the risk of your investment goes up once the pandemic tapers off in the 2nd half. Gloves demand that is not met now will not be a demand back log . The global medical fraternity has ways to reduce the usage of gloves/ppe during the current shortages. The demand will greatly reduces after Q3 and so will the ASP. Nobody should hope for this pandemic to continue. Invest wisely with clear objectives in mind.

Covid cases 389K yesterday, below 400K since early oct 2020, the down trend reversal is very clear and with current vaccine inoculation of ~100 million one shot as of 1 Feb. Roughly around ~4 million shot per day expected globally. The pandemic trajectory is on a right track and I don't see any deviation from what WHO is projecting. I do not think earnings of PPE can continue to sustain beyond 3rd quarter 2021.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

64 Million vaccinated so far. Good place to track your investment risk.

EPF interest payment will be in the funds itself. Most likely on the I Sinar withdwrawal as the extra physical withdrawal compare with the usual retirement . With current price PE ratio drop to around 15-16. Should not be overly concern. No harm going in at this price. The company revenue and earnings is still intact, unless major happens. Good Luck

Dividend around 4-5% but recent last year the payout % is very high up to 90% of their earnings, meaning not sustainable if the pandemic continue for next few years. Not likely but the risk is still there

RSI around 20 and MACD -0.04 trending, seems reversal signal is stronger. Anyway your choice .

Tenaga is for long term. Monopoly utility and with PE ratio of 18-19 for a utility sector, the downside is not a concern. Where else for Khazanah/EPF and other institution to invest for long term growth if not TNB? They will not gamble everything on glove stocks or where the industry growth is only guarantee for a year more or based on hearsay trending.

The FD rate will be at 1.6-1.8 % and projected to be low for the next 5 years. At low interest rate scenario, investing for those that is risk averse will seriously consider TNB and BAT for its dividend and low risk profile, entry to this industry will be difficult unlike industries such as gloves and other lower tech industry. I see good opportunity at this 10.00-10.50 range, hold it.