JAKS current price @ RM0.645

PE VALUATION :
Both Jaks and MFCB have notable similarities in businesses and risk profiles, hence, they should have similar valuation.

MFCB is currently trading at 11.5 times earnings of Don Sahong. Given the same PE ratio, Jaks should be trading around RM1.70 after it has acquired additional 10% interest in JHDP and the power plant achieved full potential.


DCF VALUATION:
A stream of FCF of between RM300m to RM400m to Jaks for the next 25 years is worth between RM2.15 to RM2.85 per share in present value. The 25 years of FCF is more than just cash, they are sources of capital to more business opportunities !

* Data from DK's articles

当地时间11月28日1时59分，公司承建的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂项目2号机组汽轮机冲转一次成功，各项指标均达到优良标准，为2号机组336小时整套试运行打下了坚实基础。

　　经检测，汽轮机从低速检查到暖机、冲转、平稳定速过程中大机真空、轴瓦振动、轴承温度等各项指标均符合技术规范要求，定速运行中各系统设备运行稳定，顺利达到额定转速3000转/分。期间，项目部统筹安排，各个部门配合协作，全体员工齐心协力，日夜奋战，优质高效的完成汽轮机冲转工作。

　　越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂项目位于越南北部海阳省京门市，是中国企业在越南单笔投资金额最大的项目，也是中国能建在海外以投资拉动全产业链“走出去”的第一个火电投资项目，项目建成后将大大缓解越南当地电力空缺，有力推动越南当地经济发展，有效改善当地就业和人民生活水平。

越南海阳项目2×600MW燃煤电厂工程 "二号机组" 汽轮机3000转冲转一次成功

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/11/28/art_8423_2349040.html

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad
Reiterate BUY, with a TP of RM0.80
Dated : 30/11/2020

https://messenger.i3investor.com/res/msg/file/25087/2020/11/affinhwang_20201130_jaks_rn_20201130091741.pdf

Hi DK66
Thank you for your time for giving many valuable free research and opinions. Appreciated very much. Please add me, thank you.

LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 04-Mar-2020 Disposed 83,300
LEMBAGA TABUNG HAJI 03-Mar-2020 Disposed 100,000

The thin film PV maker reported solid year-end 2018 results, with future bookings extending out four years and the fourth of five Series 6 factories already online.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/02/21/first-solar-is-sitting-pretty/

Latest AR 2018 showed cool eye topped up shares from 600k to 1.5m shares.
Good luck to all shareholders ^_^

This Qtr the Company written off goodwill amounting to RM8m. If without this expenses, QoQ and YoY result should be very encouraging ^_^

A very good article from DavidtsLim. Please check it out from headlines :

HIAPTEK: A Turnaround Steel pipe Player (Accounting loss in Subsidiary: What happen to cash flow?) dated 27/09/2017

Possible for chart pattern breakout. HIAPTEK’s share price moved and formed into a bullish cup-with-handle formation in the past four months. Bullish RSI and improving MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in near term. Should resistance levels of RM0.355 be broken, it may continue to lift price higher to the next resistance level of RM0.390. However, failure to hold at support level of RM0.310 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal

Source: PublicInvest Research - 8 Mar 2017 = Achieved target price !!


Possible for further upside. Breaking out of a descending triangle, the upbeat movement of both price and volume of HIAPTEK is interpreted as a positive sign, amid weak market sentiment. Bullish RSI and MACD indicators currently signal reasonable entry level, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in near term to lift price higher to the subsequent resistance levels of RM0.435 and RM0.460.

However, failure to hold onto support level of RM0.370 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence trigger a cut-loss signal.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 7 Sept 2017 = Can achieve target price ??

During June is RM1920-1950/MT , 
During the first week of July stable at RM1980/MT, 
07th increase to RM2000/Mt, 
10th increase to Rm2050, 
14th increase to RM2080, 
17th increase to RM2100 
19th increase to RM2120 

On 04/08/17
Y16-32=Rm2340 
Y10,12,Y40 &R10 =RM2490 
R6,8,12,16,20&25=Rm2540 (No Stock) 

Till yesterday
Y16-32=Rm2600 
Y10,12,Y40 &R10 =RM2750 
R6,8,12,16,20&25=Rm2800 (No Stock) 

Never stop yet.....^_^

For LionInd is not as u expected, for SS is above ur expectation

Operation loss due to SHRC, this is the main losses incurred last year after doing restructuring exercises.

I am confusing...... :(

Annjoo, Masteel and Lsteel all repoted lower profit in the latest quarter result yet Ssteel reported revenue maintained but gross profit margin only 3.7% and loss before tax of 7.9m, totally unacceptable result..... :(

During June is RM1920-1950/MT ,
During the first week of July stable at RM1980/MT,
07th increase to RM2000/Mt,
10th increase to Rm2050,
14th increase to RM2080,
17th increase to RM2100
19th increase to RM2120

Today
Y16-32=Rm2340
Y10,12,Y40 &R10 =RM2490
R6,8,12,16,20&25=Rm2540 (No Stock)

Never stop yet.....^_^

Hi Edwardljhoo,
Thank you very much for the useful and up to date input. From your deep experience in the steel industries, may I know what is the break even selling price for Y16-32, Y10,12,Y40 &R10 , R68,12,16,20&25.
Thank you.

Just to share some findings :

1) Trade Receivable
AR 2016 page 73
The normal credit terms granted to outright sale customer range between 30 to 90 days (30.9.15: 30 to 90 days).
They are recognised at their original invoice amounts which represent their fair values on initial recognition.

Outright sales 2015 = 31488 (AR 2016 page 78)
Trade receivable 2015 on outright sales = 9311 (AR 2016 page 72)
Collection period = 3.5 months

Outright sales 2016 = 19460 (AR 2016 page 78)
Trade receivable 2016 on outright sales = 10818 (AR 2016 page 72)
Collection period = 6.7 months

Total sales for Q2 2017 = 16358
Trade receivable = 19469
Collection period = ????

2) Top 30 shareholders
AR 2015
Page 84-85 Institute shareholders 2015 = 8

AR 2016
Page 94-95 Institute shareholders 2016 = 1

Please check forward PE before sell.....^_^

Qtr result out :
PAT = RM31.9m
EPS = 2.48 cents
Congratulation to all shareholders ^-^

Fx Trade FinTrade Fin
Qtr Ex rate Gain/(Loss) RM USD

Dec-16 4.480 ?? ?? ??
Sep-16 4.145 288 3,226 778
Jun-16 4.023 6,910 1,632 406
Mar-16 3.922 8,735 10,112 2,571
Dec-15 4.323 (6,989) 23,971 5,582
Sep-15 4.446 (34,006) 45,523 10,235
Jun-15 3.786 (2,566) 49,906 13,183
Mar-15 3.717 (10,994) 65,096 17,515

EPS :

Q1 2016 = 24.90
Q2 2016 = 20.00 (if no provision = -10.3+30)
Q3 2016 = 17.30
Q4 2016 = 17.30 (be prudent)
Total = 79.50

PE 8 = 6.36.....boleh jadi??

9 mth'16 Rev = 3944m
Full year estimate = 4/3*3944 = 5259m
Rev is decreasing compared 2015 ie = 5572m

Yet latest Q3's inventories and receivable amount is the highest in history... :(

Qtr Rev PAT Margin

4 ?? ?? ??
3 323,125 8,835 2.7%
2 396,279 17,335 4.4%
1 408,401 20,264 5.0%

Smelting segment'16 : Rev, PAT and margin keep decreasing....Q4 still same trend...??

Cash in hand @ 31/12/15 = 106m
Cash in hand @ 30/09/16 = 9m

Bprrowing @ 31/12/15 = 128m
Borrowing @ 30/09/16 = 85m

Cash reducing 97m, loan reducing 43m, debtors, inventories, bad debts increasing..
Negative FCF....

No eye see.... ;(