@freetospeak sifu
Thanks !

@freetospeak sifu
这么说来4q PAT 预测少于500m 是否保守了点？

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After the bonus issues looks like the only catalyst for price movement is the announcement of q results.

Supermx’s q result will call the shots.

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今天Maybank 再提高TG目标价，
水涨船高？.....................

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Posted by freetospeak > Jul 22, 2020 7:56 AM | Report Abuse

天之道 损有余而补不足 是故虚胜实 不足胜有余.
Sometime its good to be second best or third best.

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安危在是非，不在於强弱。

存亡在虚实，不在於众寡。

质与量，孰优孰劣 ？

师傅是道中人？

哈哈哈.......................................

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业绩出炉之日，即是股价暴涨之时！

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业绩早些公布，
结果便知分晓。

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Posted by freetospeak > Jul 21, 2020 8:39 AM | Report Abuse

yahoo128...this calculation already factor in the bonus issue eps n tp.
This is a ex bonus scenario base on current market price.

If Tg 7.6 b share make 4 bil profit as estimated by cimb for fy21
4/7.6b= 52.6 sen
Tg pe 25 (5 yrs mean) = rm13.15
From (24.82/3) 8.27 to 13.15 = 37%

super can make minimum 70% of tg 4b (base on h1n1 history of 70% to 90%)
2.8b /2.6 b= 1.07eps ,pe 15(5yrsmean) = rm16
From (18.4/2) 9.2 to 16 = 74%

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What if supermx is in KLCI end of the year ?

PE 15 ?

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 20, 2020 8:13 AM | Report Abuse

To fetch a higher market cap comparable to tg n harta( 38% now),supermax need

1. Comparable proftabilty n margin to tg n harta.(70% to 90% or more )

We will c in nex qtr.

2. Comparable dividend payout policy.
This one a bit lacking.but with better profitabilty it shld improve.

3. Comparable liquidity.
Can be solve with more bonus issue incoming expected.

4. Comparable size n caps.
Super will close up the gap with harta in 2022 with further expansion.
Expanding in caps turn aggressive after bumper qtr n years of obm network expansion.

5. Better appreciation of OBM advantage.
We c more attention n value appreciation in progress now. All skepticism will be crushed with bumper profit.

6. Klci compent index.
Condition has been met and believe end of year will be indexed.

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神预测啊 !……………

这将全都一一实现………………

真的佩服@freetospeak师傅！

不得不五体投地啊！

你将造就多少个百万，千万富翁啊！

哈哈哈.....................................

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只要开场破了RM17.80 速柏马就一路狂奔............

终点在哪？

由市场先生说了算。


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freetospeak My target for fy2021 is at least 3 billion ...not 2 billion.2 billion is based on cimb humble estimation.how can supermax only earn 500m per qtr so low..lol.. If tg 2021 profit estimation is 4 billion...supermax at least 70%(h1n1 ratio is 70 to 90%) which is 3 bill. 4 billion for super is also possible.
19/07/2020 7:14 AM
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哇！

一年净赚30亿是什么概念？

PE10 RM22.00
PE15 RM33.00

一年净赚35亿是什么概念？

PE10 RM25.73
PE15 RM38.60

我这个小股民可买不起咯…………

如果年底再进入了KLCI……………

那只能由基金经理玩了……………

我这个小股民可要望股兴叹啊！

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Posted by freetospeak > Jul 18, 2020 5:58 PM | Report Abuse

Ntpboon..thank you...不敢当。您才是真人不露相.有门路记得关照小弟。

Now CIMB analyst raised q4 forecast PAT to RM356m !
本来是多少?。original is how much?

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你是谦虚的真师傅，我是小股民，哪有门路。

CIMB last report q4 PAT was RM328.9M.

In latest report q4 increased to RM356M.

But in FY21 the analyst increased PAT from RM847.2M to RM1497M.

Possible or too low? Seeking your views.

Thanks !

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真的佩服@freetospeak师傅！

Now CIMB analyst raised q4 forecast PAT to RM356m !

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many thanks @freetospeak.for the figures)

1.80 with profit 30 million (QTR 2)
rise to
4.30 with profit 71 million (QTR 3) 2.38x
rise to
16.00 with expected profit 71 x 3.72 = 264 mil (QTR 4) 3.72x

18.00 with expected profit 71 x 4.18 = 297 mil (QTR 4) 4.18x

20.00 with expected profit 71 x 4.65 = 330 mil (QTR 4) 4.65x

22.00 with expected profit 71 x 5.11 = 363 mil (QTR 4) 5.11x

24.00 with expected profit 71 x 5.11 = 396 mil (QTR 4) 5.58x ( Q4 is expected @ 380 mil)

26.00 with expected profit 71 x 6.04 = 429 mil (QTR 4) 6.04x

28.00 with expected profit 71 x 6.51 = 462 mil (QTR 4) 6.51x

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CIMB分析员大笔一挥把目标价从RM12.80提高至RM19.60，

看来下星期一速柏马将再次狂奔啊......................................

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哈哈哈……………

神奇速柏马 一骑绝尘...................

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小心业绩随时出炉咯！

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Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Jul 17, 2020 8:21 AM | Report Abuse

Dun need worry about tg, they will take care of themselves.meanwhile others will be safe due to topglove,becoz setting an example is enuff.they wont kill themselves with further banning of other glove company. If u know the real reason why tg is targetted ,u wont worry for others. So jus relax n do some shopping today to earn money for your wife shopping soon.

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哈哈哈……………

If you love your wife, money drop from sky ！

真师傅也！

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"The Stock Market’s Great Paradox :

What seems too high in price and risky to the majority usually goes higher eventually, and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower."

--- William J.O’Nell

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freetospeak Henry..tp depends on qtr 4 result. Heres some reference.

1.80 with profit 30 million (QTR 2)
rise to
4.30 with profit 71 million (QTR 3) 2.38x
rise to
16.00 with expected profit 71 x 3.72 = 264 mil (QTR 4) 3.72x

18.00 with expected profit 71 x 4.18 = 297 mil (QTR 4) 4.18x

20.00 with expected profit 71 x 4.65 = 330 mil (QTR 4) 4.65x

22.00 with expected profit 71 x 5.11 = 363 mil (QTR 4) 5.11x

24.00 with expected profit 71 x 5.11 = 396 mil (QTR 4) 5.58x

26.00 with expected profit 71 x 6.04 = 429 mil (QTR 4) 6.04x

28.00 with expected profit 71 x 6.51 = 462 mil (QTR 4) 6.51x

30.00 with expected profit 71 x 6.97 = 495 mil (QTR 4) 6.97x
15/07/2020 7:58 PM

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Thanks sifu freetospeak for above estimation.

This numbers tell me that those who sold yesterday were expected q4 profit will be less than 300m.

Will q4 profit exceed 300m ?

Let see..........拭目以待..............

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一口气弥补了两个跳空缺口！

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尝尝.............

让盈利奔跑的滋味 ？

紧张！

刺激！

痛快！

难受！

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哈哈哈……………

神奇速柏马.............................

一骑绝尘..................................

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业绩走漏风声之日，即是股价暴涨之时！

场外观望，场内博杀，悉听尊便。

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在最新的一份分析报告中，CIMB指出2022年手套的ASP不太可能会下降。
也就是说手套股的涨势可持续至2022年？

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Hahaha.........

SGX holiday today.
Maybe Singapore based fund all coming here.

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"The Stock Market’s Great Paradox :

What seems too high in price and risky to the majority usually goes higher eventually, and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower."

--- William J.O’Nell

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freetospeak 业绩走漏风声之日...很靠近了啊。
09/07/2020 12:59 PM
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哈哈哈……………

如果真的很靠近了，

拥有者将欢欣鼓（股）舞，

观望者将望股价兴叹…………了！

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小心喔！

业绩走漏风声之日，即是股价爆涨之时！

随时都有可能出现！

场外观望，场内博杀，悉听尊便。

期待…………

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Posted by freetospeak > Jul 6, 2020 4:56 PM | Report Abuse

LONG TIME NO RECAP !!!! DO A RECAP FOR MY EARLY PROJECTION IN MAY for QTR 4.

PAT 242,560.52 - PAT 409,739.79 range. AVG RM326mil PAT :)
Not considering increase volume at max capacity.

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Wow ! your estimation is similar to

New CIMB forecast q4 PAT is 328.9m in latest re-rated report.

You are better than the analyst !

赞 ！

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 6, 2020 4:56 PM | Report Abuse

LONG TIME NO RECAP !!!! DO A RECAP FOR MY EARLY PROJECTION IN MAY for QTR 4.

PAT 242,560.52 - PAT 409,739.79 range. AVG RM326mil PAT :)
Not considering increase volume at max capacity.
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Forword PE single digit ?

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Kossan : 别抢我老三的位子！

Supermx 快追 ！

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Single digit is history ?

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看来投行在业绩未出来之前会再提高目标价。

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了解一下UOBKH的分析报告：

“With the surge in earnings, Supermax’s one-year forward PE could normalise sharply to single-digit PE.”

也就是说PAT每一季都要超过325M ?

有可能吗？

拭目以待.........

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WHO：29%新冠病毒样本出现D614G变异。

这将增加疫苗的研制难度！


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Handle is just to create pivot buy point. It's already too obvious that once it cross 9.30 all will rush in to buy, especially those sold earlier.........let see...

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Why cup maybe without handle ?

Speculators have been shaken out during last three weeks correction, they will only come back if price breaking new high again. They will help those tight holders to push up to even higher price. Let see........................

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COVID-19 Cup maybe without handle.....

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只四天就收复三周之失地，速柏玛太神奇了！

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It's amazing that buy rate is less than 50% but price up more than 5%.

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上个月投行压低杠杆让小投资者全吐了出来，这个月不知还有手段吗？

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Haha......

CIMB just had another write-up on Rubber Glove !

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顺势而为是上策。

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Xiao liao......................

CharlesT who wanna bet with me...

i bet this Fri will close above 6.85

one plate of chicken rice with big rice Rm10 max
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Date Wt price Volume
3 Jun 6.82 82.7m
15 Jun 7.29 58.7m
18 Jun 6.83 51.5m

You will win unless someone with more than 50m shares throw to the market.
Possible?

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Looks like some fund is switching portfolio for half year report.

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来些轻松....

听来的.........

午餐对话............


阿戆：阿呆，你好！好久不见。
阿呆：你好！好久不见。
阿戆：前些时候阿文叫我买的油气，赌博股我已止损离场，有些闲钱，现在什么股可以买入？
阿呆：现在百业萧条，生意难做。你还要投资？
阿戆：钱存了越变越小，东西越来越贵，我想买些能赚钱的股票。
阿呆：现在有一种行业，客户愿意手上拿着现金来定货，而且要等到一年后才取货。
阿戆：真的吗？现在还有这种空头？什么行业？
阿呆：医疗手..........（太小声，听不清楚。）
阿戆：不要骗.........（太小声，听不清楚。）
阿呆：自己看着办吧！呵呵 ！

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再坐过山车，系緊安全带，以免被拋下。

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Go and read the latest CIMB report
" Rubber Gloves
Too early to ‘sweat’ it "
" Reiterate Overweight, with Top Glove and Supermax as our top picks."

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CIMB initiate coverage UG Healthcare Corp with TP S$1.36.( RM 4.17 )
It rate Supermx TP 9.80.
But annual production : UG - 2.9B pcs, Supermx - 26.2B pcs
UG up 14% today.
Supermx down 0.5%

Really don't understand the logic......

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