This payback share distribution via capital reduction of about RM794 mil will promisingly push the share price to up to about RM6.20 in a month based on similar history of other counters. Cheer !!

EPF and KWSP have been buying this Company shares recently. Why ?

Actually, there is a simple reason for the buying: In 2017,UMW is focusing on its core businesses such as Auto and Equipment that contributed RM414 net profit for FY2016. This is a firm evidence that UMW will back to its previous business glory like RM 657million net profit for FY 2014 where its share price hit RM11. Happy investment !!

Core businesses remained profitable. Excluding the RM1.3b O&G asset impairments and an additional RM900m provision for a financial guarantee for its Indian operations, UMW’s core businesses i.e. autos / equipment / M&E would have registered solid pretax profit of RM671m and a net profit of RM414m in FY16, with autos contributing the bulk of this (72%) at RM300m. UMW’s earnings turnaround will be two-pronged, driven by the O&G exit and growth in the core segments, especially autos and aerospace.I

There is no need to wait for 2 months. 2 months later, it would be RM1.00 based on my estimate.

EPF has not finished selling shares; cease person of interest is telling you that EPF holds less than 5% interest in the Company and no more further announcement in coming selling as the interest is less than 5 %.

Whether up or down depends on fund managers confidence and support level with fundamental figures but not you and me to decide as retail investors ; we only based on fundamental to invest not on speculation. Otherwise, you are speculators.

The losses from UMWOG is nothing do with UMW anymore as UMW have fixed UMWOG share prices to be sold that is why UMW is focusing on its own main business like cars that will be generating good profit in FY2017 based on accounting term and fund managers are not stupid in the case.

The most impartant is whether the capable execution of the 4 projects by Armada management have restored financial institutions confidence to buy lower share price range of Armada i.e RM0.65 to RM0.80 as they know that about Armada very well with their own expertise resources and have foreseen coming promising net profits in quarters of 2017 onwards.

The buying trends have indicated so oblivious that they have recognise the management capable execution of the projects ;Fund managers are only interested and confident in those companies which is able to generate" reliable" future profits for their single cent investment.they buy shares for future but not for history.

Conclusion: capable execution of projects bringing promising profit, improving financial performance and dividend yield as well that definitely build up confidence of fund manager as its share dropped to RM0.50 for instance but real share price is about RM1.00 over future promising income. There is no charity concern of fund managers in their investment. Otherwise share price will not be up as expected and retail investors are not able benefit from the share price uptrend of the MNC.

Maintain Buy call with an unchanged target price of RM0.91 with FY17 EPS pegged to a target PER of 15x. We think the premium PE valuation is warranted given its huge orderbook and long term prospects in FPSO which could keep the company busy for the next few years.
Going forward, Bumi Armada is eyeing several new FPSO jobs, namely ONGC Kakinada (India), Eni Zaba Zaba (Nigeria), Hess (Ghana) and Petrobras Sepia (Brazil).
Source: JF Apex Securities Research - 1 Mar 2017

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5354465

Hi, FYI in addition to Eni and Kraken projects which contribute approximately RM660 million for Q2 2017 onwards, Malta FSU contract worth USD300 million for 18 years tenure and Indonesia Madura FPSO contract worth USD1.3 billion for 10 years plus 5 years extension will totally generate about another RM113 million (FX rate:4.4) per quarter which likely are taking place in Q2 2017 as well.

So, just imagine the 4 promising projects contributing approximately RM773 mil in Q2 2017 ( my estimate plus existing source of income) , will Armada be able to achieve RM150 mil net profit in Q2 2017 onwards :) ?

This is for your reference only and any of your single cent investment should be under your control ( knowledge) and at your own risk. Happy investment !!

Hi, How it worth RM1.00 of Armada share as Armada turn into normal profit such as RM150 million per quarter that likely happen in Q2 2017 with additional revenue of RM660 million per quarter from Eni and Kraken projects and furthermore the another 2 projects have been in the operational start -up where their revenue have not been stated yet.

Don't forget, fund managers and good retail investors have been buying this counter shares at lower price first before Q2 2017 as the they know the share price will hit RM1.00 soon due to the 4 promising projects; Warren Buffett said that buy those counter shares that have potential or promising profit in future where the shares at RM0.50 currently but it worth RM1.20 for instance( based on investment fundamental and accounting knowledge) in the coming year . Happy investments!!

Hi,don't forget the another two projects FSU in Malta and FPSO in Angola are smoothly in operational start-up as per announcement

I did not expect that there was a huge impairment on its vessels in Q4 2016 that I overlooked. This indicate that there are quite some vessels and other FA have not been rented out/used for certain period or have low projected cash flow as compared to their NBV based on Malaysia FRS and normal practice for year end audit as well.

Anyway, there are only impairments in the past quarters but not bad debts-written off. That mean some of these impairments accounted for in the past quarters might be recovered in future once they are rented outed again for certain rental sums which are higher-than - their NBV if there is good O&G market in term shipment.

Don't forget, Eni and Kraken projects have USD3.9 billion contract worth ( for 12 years tenure) and USD 2.2 billion contract worth( for 8 years tenure) respectively which will contribute approximately RM660 million ( based on FX rate 4.4) in revenue per quarter from Q2 2017 onwards. Another two projects, FSU in Malta and FPSO in Angola have been in operational start-up. Just imagine how good the revenue in FY2017 and furtheremore generate good free cash flow as well( Kraken project will generate free cash flow of RM170 million per quarter and other 3 projects have not been stated) . These will promisingly turn Armada into profit track from loss from Q2 2017 onwards.

I think these coming additional revenue have been under financial institutions' consideration for their target price of Armada shares;These revenue will strongly support Armada's share price. Since there is a huge impairment of RM1.1 billion in Q4 2016, I guess there will be supporting level of RM0.67 ( Armada Share price) tomorrow and gradually stablise and rebound to RM1.00 in next two months mainly due to the 4 projects. Don't forget it's order book stood at RM39 billion in Q4 2016 . Good luck !!

Many people concern about Whether Amarda share price will drop to below RM0.70 if Armada announce Q4 2016 result. .. If the result is net loss of about RM50 to 70 Million (my estimate due to certain factors). So, will the share price drop below RM0.70 ?

The question is, have you looked at financial institutions' ( who bought a lot of Amarda shares recently) investment point of view instead of your speculation point of view ( if you are speculators ) ?

This is my "two cents" on why this counter share price will not drop below RM0.70 after Q4 2016 announcement soon if it is loss of roughly RM 70mil and its share price will be even higher to RM1.00 ( based on 2 year ago Amarda share price with normal profit) in next two month as follows:

1) Most of the impairment on FA and others (that caused huge loss in the past quarters) have been reflected in the past quarters following very low oil price and low utilisation rates. Therefore, Auditors essessed in the past quarters that some low utilised Vessels or FA have low projected future cash flows and lower market values as compared to their NBV. Therefore, these FA were impaired based on accounting standard. So, impairment for Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 .... will be much lower or least.

2) Financial institution believe that the low oil price is over as OPEC and Non-OPEC oil cut compliance is reliable that will support more O&G downstream activities that will benefit oil & gas companies indirectly.

3) Recently, Armada share price was up as highest as RM0.79 was mainly due to buying support from financial institutions over Eni and Kraken projects were completed smoothly that has made the institutions have more confidence in this counter for long term but not for 3 to 6 months.

4) Just imagine, the Eni and Kraken FPSO contract for USD 3.9 billion for 12 years tenure and USD2.2 billion for 8 years tenure respectively. So, how much the revenue of Armada per quarter in future like Q2 2017onwards ( based on the tenure effective dates) ?; Armada will account for RM170 mil free cash flow generated by Kraken FPSO from Q2 2017 onwards and other 3 projects are expected to make contribution to Armada this year as well following Kraken contribution.

5 ) I believe that low utilisation rate for OSV segment and completion of conversion projects and partially offset by higher income from other business segment over Higher oil price that might cause net Loss about RM50 to 70 mil ( my rough estimate only) for Q4 2016.

Conclusion: more institutions are more confident about revenue and cash flow from the two projects ( Eni and Kraken) for Q2 2017 onwards and have more confidence in Armada due to capable execution of the projects that will turn Armada loss into good profit for FY2017.

If you think these are irrelevant, please ignore the above-mentioned statement. Good luck !

Sin Chew Daily: 沙地国王周日访马·将签署边佳兰炼油协议 (about USD 21billion). Good luck !

2017-02-25 | 14:20:46

hi guys,I noticed that EPF disposed of a lot of shares in many counters including Armada for raising huge fund over approved IPO from Eco world International, a subsidiary of Ecoworld

I agree with you bizzybone that the result for Q4 2016 is more or less the same as Q3 2016 i.e loss : however, Q2 2017 result will be improved significantly as per my estimate following a new FPSO vessel income.

Unfortunately, somebody does not has investment perception and knowledge ( including accounting and analysis knowledge) and blindly made judgement on the report provided by analyst. Stanley Sim had mentioned that the past bad issues have been factored in Amarda share price but future factors have not been factored like KRaken FPSO out of the 4 future projects. Good luck !

Hi Stanley Sim, I did agree with your report following my personal study and analysis as well. Thanks

The simple is that DRB has to sell " majority interest- 51% in Proton" to a foreign partner for reducing its yearly huge loss that had caused DRB fell into financial crisis. If the interest in Proton is disposed of, so the remaining business segment of DRB will be good profit- making business that will polish DRB to be darling counter to shareholders. Hopefully, the proton deal will be done soon and Good luck.

Hi Guys, Amarda Kraken FPSO vessel is recently rented out with USD 440K to 450K per day as "free cash flow"or about RM170 million free cash flow per quarter ( started from middle of Feb 2017). Other three vessel will be completed soon this year for generating new income !! Just imagine, how good the cash flow of Armada and improvement in Armada's financial performance and position ( Profit and loss and balance sheet as well as cash flow performance) from Middle of February 2017 onwards; oil price stability will further support oil downstream activities of Oil & gas companies as well. Good luck !!!

Hi Toto， 你如果时常以薇差的价格买卖那只股，那就叫“投机”。相反的，如果你是以公司好的业绩，好的业务潜能 和可观的年度股息才持那只股数年。 那就叫“投资”。 希望这可帮到你。

Thank you Weng 77 for your information as above-mentioned which is quite informative.

The main point is this counter did not suffer huge loss and even posted marginal profit as well in the past quarter as compared to Armada and UNW oil & gas which suffered huge losses in the past quarter. But il this counter share price hit lowest of RM0.19. It is very to put money in this counter at this very reasonable price. Good luck !!

Strait to the main point that if cruse oil price stabilised at the range between USD 50 to 55 dollars this counter (Alam M) will turn back to RM0.30 easily on potential projects to be awarded by Petronas and overseas given that stable oil price at the range and US shale oil production cost at the range as well and the OPEC and Russia oil production deal is delivered next year January.

When oil price is breaking USD 50.00 and firm for couple of days that will make good oil and gas counters bound back significantly as they have dropped all the time low like "Alam Maritim" dropped as low as 19 cents .

Why monopolised sugar business and good Palm oil price still made the company losses in the past quarters and share price was up to RM2.5 and dropped to RM1.42 and was pushed up a bit to RM1.60 :) by who? Rational people can understand the issues around this company. The company must practice good governance and engage real capable management team; Other gain Palm oil counters made very good profits last Quarter . Why .... ? Hope u guys understand the issues . Thanks ..

Wrongly mentioned FY 16 in my previous statement. It should be FY 17 Q1 & 2 instead of FY16 Q3 & 4 that i stated. Agree with you Weng 77 over the timber price. However, much higher contribution from Palm oil division as compared to lower revenue that might have impact on profit contribution.

Hi guy, just imagine with your calculation that If the good palm oil price range about RM 2500 to 2800 per tonne remain and increasing monthly FFB about 105,000 tonne per month due to new young planted areas contribution as compared to last year FFB target about only 75,000 tonne per month at RM2,400 to 2,600 per tonne, imagine the above good news are reflected in J Tiasa book for the next second half year of 2016 and minor offset with lower revenue from low timber price.

That means J Tiasa Q3 and Q4 gross profit might increase by around 25 % to 30 % particularly for FY16 Q4 earning as a result of production cost will be lower ( furthermore compare to El Niño has made many other palm oil companies suffer lower FFB per month but not happen to J Tiasa , indicating JTiasa FFB has benefited from the increasing FFB price with new planted areas contributed FFB by estimated about 35 % this year. Trade at your own risk and Good luck !!

http://m.investing.com/analysis/tug-of-war-continues-in-beans-200160895

Good chance to buy them at 6.5 Sen with holding power and cheer :) !!!

buy 6.5 - 7 Sen with holding power due to this a manupilate counter : ) good luck !!

Try the luck to buy them at 7 Sen by being queueing in a month time !!! Cheer !!!

I have bought them at 7.5 Sen and thanks Mr P !!

Same seller and buyer :). So, let him push down the price to 7.5 Sen first :) . It is a good chance to buy them.

One seller one buyer and same :)

Hi guys, its associate, R Sawit will be up significantly soon !!

Good to buy at 7.5 Sen :) thanks !!

Woo !!! it is good to buy mother shares at 7.5 Sen . Queue first and thanks Mr P

Yup, it is a good news on plantation company value

Hi guys, don forget it's Associate," Rimbunan Sawit" that is potential to be up significantly in short term over palm oil price. Good luck !!!

Hi guys it is good to buy mother shares at 8 Sen and warran D at 2.5 sen :) !!! come on !!

Hi guys for speculation, there is "Sanichi warrant D ( expiry date is 2019 July)at 3 Sen where exercise price is 10 Sen. Good luck !

Hi guys,the Company's new oil palm area is roughly about 30% new area of the Company total oil palm area, representing 3-5 year-old palm tree start contributing fruit ( has hit above Monthly FFB 100,000 tonne - yearly FFB target is 900,000 tonne) or revenue to the Company this year. Furthermore, palm oil price is up to about RM2,600 per tonne and is expected to be RM2,700 per tonne by Dec 2016 due to good demand for palm oil from Asia particularly India and China and soybean price is high about USD960 per tonne; timber price is average.You can monitor that this counter shares is always puchased at RM1.20 to RM1.25. Target price for this counter share is RM 1.55 by this year. Good luck !!

It is hard to buy warrant D at 2.5 Sen as the manupilator queue a lot of the warrant at D. Let see tomorrow.

The manupilator is creating selling pressure, it is good to buy mother shares at 8 Sen. Thanks !!

Ok standby to buy more of mother and warrant 8 Sen and 2.5 Sen with holding power :)

bought warrant D a bit at 3 Sen and queue to buy warrant D a bit further at 2.5 Sen:). Good luck !!

8.5 Sen bought ! Thanks !!