This year ordinary dividend is higher than last year. Think no special dividend for this year. Last year special dividend is due to big fair value gain.

xgxgxh@ I personally prefer company to spin off all other non Yamaha business, and fully focus on Yamaha. If so, dividend payout maybe will come to nearing 100%. Valuation in single business and full profit payout will be completely different from now.
On acquisition, not so easy to get a good business.
HL group good performing sector is only on Banking, Yamaha, Semiconductor. The rest is performing very badly.

Xgxgxg@ maybe low liquidity is the main factor. QLC related hold about 79% if i m not mistaken

Kywoo, on last AGM, Mr Chairman said that they will expand the production capacity by 30%. Do u have the status on the expansion ?

If the expansion is completed, and still facing with tight supply, this is a very positive sign.

FY 2021, EPS around 0.73 to 0.80, dividend wise will be at least 0.42. If EPS come at 7.50, Div 0.42 ( based on FY 2020 dividend amount on bad FY, more than 0.42 is a bonus ), current valuation is PE 10 DY 5.6, no way to fail.

Q4 FY 2020 should be the worst Q so far, and company should be able to avoid the Q4 performance again on economy reopening.

On Vietnam side, profit contrIbution around 40M to 60M is justifiable based on latest competitive environment, ie. strong Honda and new E bike. ( How effective is Yamaha turnaround plan is still unknown. )

On Malaysia side, to be safe, chop off 20% profit from past peak performance ( better performance than this will be a bonus )

One of the best timing to buy a good company is when they were hitted with TEMPORARY disaster !!

SuperBrand MNC, never disappoint us ^_^

I send this group the gift 15.10 ^_^
Back to 15 level after 3 month 。。。

Allianz : 100 years Super Brand MNC
Takaful : Local GLC

Market price in future earning very effectively this time. Tough years for coming two years. The only loss for my portfolio for this 2 years. Big dent.

Not so bad QR. But on covid 19 effect, boss also said unpredictable ...
First accident, MFRS 9, second accident Covid 19 。。。

Aji, ongoing capex vs cash in hand, there is a 150M deficit.
With Aji prudent method, 3 options :
1. Bank borrowing
2. Bonus issue + right issue
3. Borrowing from Aji Corp.

Think this will incur during 2021 or 2022.

Entry price need to factor in the above.

Market is quite rational on Aji now 。。。

Be careful on this counter . Borrowing hit ceiling, but still paying quite good dividend. Dividend not justified with profit and borrowing. Unless u have insider news, if not should avoid.

Covid19 is not covered by insurance. But to fulfill corporate social responsibility, all insurance company provide some coverage.

This is a very good company. But good company need to link to good entry price.

Wah, so many hunters waiting for this babe .

Panic market. Anything can happen ...

Ya thks. I m executing my complete plan. This is life long investing journey. Of course we need to see the long and ultimate goal, and balance the immediate short to medium term impact.

"What i am looking now is "Kingdom" building SUPER BRAND, with distinctive competitive edge that not easy ( or no way ) to be duplicated by competitors."

Nobody can get at the lowest. Fund allocation is needed during bull and bear market.

Margin call were based on Margin Of Finance ratio in the portfolio. Yes , there was margin call around few of my friend this few days. So , they need either top up cash or deplete some position on their portfolio ( They can choose to sell any counter in the portfolio to reduce finance amount ). MOF varies among bank. Some bank once reach MOF 55% u need top up or force sell. Some bank will tolerate till MOF 60%, 65% or even 70%.

But based on today's volume, more chance is : the fund desparate dumping. Most likely is foreign fund. A number of counters fall more than 10% include my babies aeoncr. Carlsberg Aji Heineken ... also fall more than ten percent. Banking sector also huge fall recently . There is nothing to do with FA. Some relate this to worsening of macro due to oil crash and covid 19 and even recession.

Dumping to meet redemption demand maybe is another factor.

In economics term, when supply of liquidity ( huge dumping ) is more than demand, price will fall, and vice versa.

If we are in zero margin, non FA related price fall is nothing to impact us immediately. We either just keep or top up. When time move , it's share price will come back.

If we are able to hold for years as long as the value still there or company is still growing, those months long issue shouldn't be a problem to us.

Margin call force selling maybe the reason of desperate dumping

Huge fall in panic market ...

Watch on value, not eyeing on price ...
Manage ownselves risk reward ratio ...
^_^
別人笑我太癡呆，我笑別人看不穿 。。。

2007, I dispose everything on panic market. Laugh for few days. Cried for few years.
2020, I will continue to buy on dip ...... ^_^
從此笑傲江湖 幾十年 。。。。 。。( Hopefully )

EPS 1.42
Div 0.65
13.00
PE 9.22
DY 5

F eps 1.50 ( revised a bit down on Q4 QR )
F div 0.80
13.00
FPE 8.66
FDY 6.15

Just a matter of time, we will laughing to the bank

Another fishing day 。。。

看空喊空不卖空
股市跌到脸青葱

摸着裤子口袋松
炒底愿望变成空

颠簸起伏往上冲
思绪混乱难做工

负面新闻进高峰
股市还是一直冲

很多股友在放空
发达愿望变成空

Picked up the dead chicken 。。。Delicious

场面难得一见。
疯狂过后，就不会出现如此的鲜虾肥肉了。。。

Fishing amid golden rain 。。。

Current down is not on PAS. Price at 39 is a extreme bubble !! Par value is about 23_24 only. BUT, on CEO outlook comment, next FY is not going to be a good one. So, forward par value is at around 20 only. BUT, buy at par value, we have no margin safety, unless EPS is continue to grow. So, 18 till 16 is a safer bet . If not mistaken, Carlsberg is under attack by short seller too. Very bold , smart and brave move by the shark !!

Everything down but bubble burst !!

Ini King Kong kalau senang turun bagus la. Tapi, turun sikit orang makan, lagi turun orang sapu pula ...

https://motorcyclesdata.com/2020/02/05/malaysia-motorcycles/

If based on above link, it is 38.XX % VS 34.XX %.

There is a few different version of data, I dunno which is correct. So, I need to based on those come with figure. HLIND chairman said of 40% to 50% market share of Yamaha in AGM. But I was not so convinced with the chairman the WIDE RANGE answer. Seems he also dun have exact figure in hand.

马照跑
舞照跳
熊已老
牛露角

股市 派 利市
股坛 如 蜜糖

遍地肥油，口水流流
大江东流，任我遨遊
股海無涯，紀律是岸

^_^ ^_^

別人的愚蠢，我們的自律 。。。

2019 Malaysia motorcycle industry sales data : Yamaha market share 38% Honda 34%

Manage get some dead chicken.

Ya. New HULK in the making.
The panic should be over ( or at least nearing over )
FA is the KING. Stand like a ROCK amid thunderstorm

Charge up

Charge up. Big katak puru

FA always right regardless macro factor. More to come. Stay tune 。。。

Not bad current price now

despite political factor , carlsberg is indeed over valued. carlsberg at 39 is huge bubble ...and now come to 29, is still overvalued ....

Carlsberg
EPs 0.9518
Par value 23.00 to 24.00.
Future par value ? Further down from 23 to 24 as negative outlook.
It makes good sense if big shark is to short sell.
Good luck !!

Wah !! Short Sell !!

Hi kywoo, this is my email address. Sometimes my reply will be delay due to in the middle of something.

Silverhawk11@yahoo.com

Hi kywoo, this is my great honour meeting u in upcoming Allianz agm. Thank you for the opportunity given to me, to meet the KLSE legend. To me, this is the same like having a lunch with Warren Buffet. THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!
I was in the HLIND agm last year. Sit in left front row with my two best friends.

The biggest surprise ( shock ) this morning is not the political chaos, but kywoo words in Allianz. Thks kywoo. Huge encouragement. ^_^

Move towards gravity power !!

Below 13 is another certainty 。。。

Aji closed at 13.98 @@
What is next week move 。。。