Posted by troy88 > 2024-05-20 09:51 | Report Abuse

Uptrend still intact to eventually join the RM30+ elite group..

Posted by observatory > 2024-05-20 15:43 | Report Abuse

@wsb_investor,

I looked up the last 12 month results of a few Bursa insurers.

Company, Net Profit, Latest Equity, ROE
MNRB, 428m, 1334m, 3%
Manulife, 77m, 1270m, 6%
Allianz, 731m, 5141m, 14%
LPI, 341m, 2211m, 15%
STMKB, 347m, 1679m, 21%

They are in different sub-segments - P&C, life, or both; some conventional, some Takaful. But regardless of sub-segment, ROE measures how efficient the company is in deploying shareholder capital.

Not too surprised to find that Allianz and LPI are “better” than MNRB and Manulife.

But STMKB remains a puzzle. Post IFRS17, ROE declined a bit, but still above 20%, the highest among peers.

Is STMKB really the most efficient insurer when it comes to the use of shareholder equity? Do takaful operators need lesser capital as compared with conventional?

Any idea?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-05-27 01:33 | Report Abuse

In fact, in a way yes, for single premium product, there is 0 capital upfront. For ILP (regardless if conventional or takaful), there will be a strain, and a limit of how much can sell at a point.

So, in theory, say if we got 1.4bil population, STMB can immediately sell 45x of MRTA, but Allianz probably can only sell 3x of ILP before being restricted by the capital.

However, this is not meaningful at all. And similarly focus on ROE is not meaningful as well. MRTA is good, profitable business, but in the end, still restricted by how many new house loan by your bank partner.

Posted by mesoan > 2024-05-27 08:37 | Report Abuse

wsb_investor please share how 3X ILP is calculated?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-05-29 11:33 | Report Abuse

just a hypothetical number, could be 3x 5x, could also just be 2x.

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-06-03 13:42 | Report Abuse

@wsb_investor you worked in mgmt at insurance company or were you an actuary?

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-06-03 15:16 | Report Abuse

@observatory you are a very pro investor indeed. But you got one thing wrong: Some insurance companies have low ROE due to their riskier underwriting and markdown on investments. Especially re-insurers. So let's say you have one year of higher claims and cat losses, the combined ratio will shoot up, and ROE stays flat if investment returns also remain flat.

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-06-06 14:09 | Report Abuse

Switch to Allianz

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-06-06 15:10 | Report Abuse

Holding both MNRB and Allianz. Not worried at all

Posted by wallstreetrookieNEW > 2024-06-14 14:07 | Report Abuse

Entire forum suddenly became quiet. What the heck is wrong with yall

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-06-14 23:25 | Report Abuse

Income Insurance, Allianz in talks on tie-up, seeking regulatory approval

Posted by observatory > 2024-06-16 01:33 | Report Abuse

If it goes through, how might it affect Allianz Malaysia?

Posted by mesoan > 2024-06-25 08:04 | Report Abuse

@observatory I guess there's no impact. the tie up would benefit the mother company Allianz SE

Posted by observatory > 2024-06-29 14:22 | Report Abuse

800k of ICPS have just been converted into ordinary shares.

ICPS provides 20% extra dividend but harder to sell. For 800k volume, if they cannot be sold in blocks, it’s better to convert into ordinary shares rather than sold at a discount to ordinary shares.

Based on shareholding information, I guess the shareholder is either EPF, or one of the Public or AHAM funds.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-06-29 18:16 | Report Abuse

New RBC framework just out yesterday, effectively 2027, but will have immediate impact on product mix starting next year.

Posted by troy88 > 2024-07-02 10:56 | Report Abuse

Uptrend to resume soon after some consolidation for insurance stocks

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-09 09:56 | Report Abuse

Many hoo-ha with co-payment medical insurance recently. Insurers are already moving away from cashless, yet some doctor association/consumer group jump out and said, cashless is better. Many people don't see the point that, the saving in premium, will higher than the deductible in just 2-3 years time. You might need to fork out RM500 or RM1000 for admission, but you save back premium (and hidden commission) in 2-3 years. There is no free lunch, for everyone, but dropping the cashless feature, will introduce a great saving immediately.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-09 09:59 | Report Abuse

For many white collar office job, you (and maybe your family) already covered by your employer's group insurance. There is no real need for you to have a cashless medical insurance.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-17 17:27 | Report Abuse

Allianz has announced a pre-conditional voluntary cash general offer to acquire at least 51% of the shares of Income Insurance, subject to regulatory approval. Allianz intends to offer $40.58 per share for a total transaction value of approximately $2.2 billion (approximately EUR 1.5 billion) for 51% of the shares in Income Insurance. The offer price represents a premium over Income's NAV of $29.55 per share of 37.3%.

Posted by observatory > 2024-07-17 20:35 | Report Abuse

The business could be supported by the newly set up shared IT services in Malaysia. But any possible synergy with Allianz Malaysia?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-18 08:23 | Report Abuse

Allianz already has some existing shared service in Malaysia, but in a very weird arrangement.

Posted by observatory > 2024-07-18 11:32 | Report Abuse

What do you mean?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-18 12:38 | Report Abuse

If my understanding is correct, Allianz will loan out its internal staff (under a single entity), as shared service to other BUs, and get to profit from it. A more common way is, shared service will operate as a separated entity (might or might not under local BU, typically not under local BU, but directly under Group).

Posted by observatory > 2024-07-18 14:44 | Report Abuse

I see. Maybe for non-IT staffs. For IT they transferred the majority of Malaysian staffs to the new regional delivery center Allianz Technology Sdn Bhd

Posted by mesoan > 2024-07-21 19:12 | Report Abuse

but shared service is very small business, unlikely to improve Allianz mas earning

Posted by observatory > 2024-07-31 16:16 | Report Abuse

Only after reading yesterday news that I realize Prudential parent company owns just 51% * 50.99% = 26% of Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd.
If Prudential can’t obtain greater control as per Federal Court’s decision, wouldn’t it discourage Prudential from growing its Malaysian market?
How would Prudential agents react?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-31 17:11 | Report Abuse

No，Pru plc owns 51% of PAMB. If bumi proxy can just anyhow songlap foreigner share, I think discourage Prudential from growing MY market is the least concern.

Before 1998, Pru plc owned 30% of PAMB, Berjaya owned ~69%. In 1998, Berjaya divested in PAMB, and supposedly sold all ownership back to Pru plc. However due to insurance act 1996, Pru plc cannot, on paper, own 100%, hence the Detik Ria (30% @ 1998) as bumi proxy. Vincent Tan personally also hold 19% of PAMB share at this point, only later (unknown when), sold the 19% to Detik Ria. Pru plc has signed some put and call options on the ownership of Detik Ria (i.e. fixed price) that it will repurchase back the ownership at later time.

Later in ~2017, BNM (or government) started to want to enforce the foreign ownership (now 70%), Pru plc then planned to get back the 49% and then disinvest accordingly. This Tommy, used the excuse that not getting MoF approval, but ignoring that BNM has given the approval. Next time how? listen to who? MoF or BNM?

Who is enforcing the 70%? BNM. From the article, BNM also ok with Pru plc approach, to get back 100% of share, and proceed with disinvestment accordingly. Then suddenly, VT and Tommy, come out with this idea, to songlap Pru plc ownership.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-07-31 17:21 | Report Abuse

Prudential is not the only company that foreign owns 100% via bumi proxy. GE has gotten exemption. AIA has approval from white house, probably no one dare to touch. HLA and Etiqa are local. Allianz/Manulife are listed. Sunlife/MCIS/Generali/FWD/AmMetlife all have local partner. Zurich and Tokio Marine probably still 100% foreigner own, with proxy.

Posted by observatory > 2024-07-31 18:18 | Report Abuse

The Federal Court ruling cannot be further appealed. Wonder what can Prudential do. Negotiate and pay?

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-09-24 10:42 | Report Abuse

Comments on AMIB report:
i. mandatory coinsurance, on long term, is good for everyone (except private hospitals)
ii. market risk charge under RBC2 will be higher, yes, but overall risk charges might not be higher. Also, comparing CAR change from RBC to RBC2 is completely meaningless. There are new risk charges (or new components), but there are also diversification.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-10-14 16:22 | Report Abuse

Allianz's proposed acquisition of a 51% stake in Singapore's Income Insurance for US$1.6bn has been called off after the Singapore government intervened, stating the merger "would not be in the public interest."

Posted by wsb_investor > 2024-10-16 16:59 | Report Abuse

Expert Foresees ‘Full Privatisation’ Of MOH’s FPP Service

Posted by wsb_investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Allianz is currently priced at around 1x BV for GI, and 1x CSM + NAV for Life.
PBB is offering to takeover LPI @ ~1.74x BV.
In Singapore, Allianz offers to takeover NTUC @ 100% EV (failed), GE offers to privatise @ ~70% EV (not going well).
Regionally, Prudential and AIA are still trading at near record low, and FWD IPO still keep delaying due to weak market sentiment.
If GI is fully priced (based on Lonpac 1.74x), share price should be ~28.
If both Life and GI is fully priced (based on pre-covid era, life insurance valuation), share price should be ~40.

Allianz FY2023 total expense is ~650mil, while PBT is 957mil. I understand that Allianz is currently undergoing some cost saving measure, say if materialise, a 10% cut in expense, can increase PBT by 6.8%.

Immediate catalyst will depend on Anwar's healthcare reform.
Currently, Malaysia healthcare expenditure is ~50bil, of which 17% by private insurance (~8.5bil).
Allianz has ~1.5-2bil/yearly (and rising, with loss ratio ~80-90%) in medical premium/COI alone (>17% market share).
Anwar is pushing for rakan-KKM/FPP in government hospital, and supposedly in his ideal world, only B40 can enjoy RM1 healthcare, in the crowded government hospital. M40 can go for full pay gov hospital, and T20 can go private hospital. A lot room for medical insurance, if Anwar's plan success, of course, at the expenses of rakyat, and make greedy private investors richer.

Posted by observatory > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

GI last 12-month ROE was about 16%. If sustainable, a 1.7x P/B multiple similar to LPI is fair. The GI valuation will be RM2,611m * 1.7 = RM4,439m

I’m not sure about the fair multiple for life business.
Net CSM + tangible shareholder equity = RM4,497m.
Market leader AIA which has high growth rate in new business value, is currently traded at 1.3X EV (~62/48).
Shouldn't Allianz Life be valued at a discount to AIA?

Posted by winston1 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Come January, can expect good dividend announcement

Posted by wsb_investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

I compared AIA MY and Allianz MY NB growth, Allianz is marginally higher than AIA for 2023 vs 2022, and 2023 vs 2019. Anyways AIA HK covers too many markets, and hard to put value on them, vs Allianz MY is a lot more simple.

Posted by wsb_investor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Maybank is said to weigh options for insurer Etiqa, value @ around $4billion, ~RM 17.6bil, more than double of Allianz current market cap.

Posted by wsb_investor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

received notification about medical repricing again. probably a good year ahead for Allianz.

Posted by sheldon > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Going by past trends, next week dividend announcement.
Excellent, Good, Average, Bad or Nothing?
What do you think?

Come on - be a sport !

Posted by wsb_investor > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Could be average, or lower, due to repricing cap, and upcoming new capital requirements

Posted by wsb_investor > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Based on data, as of today, Allianz probably has the worst medical loss ratio among big 4 life insurers. However, Allianz also has youngest average policyholder age. Note that BNM restricted repricing for age 60+, but actually allowed 10% increase (for 80% policyholders) and 10+% for the rest. Short term impact, if Allianz always go for maximum allowable increase, is minimal for Allianz. BNM and MOF completely kowtow to politicians during this medical repricing drama.

The key impact on Allianz future earning is still the new regulation, a decision on whether 50% or 100% negative reserve as capital available, that could make a significant impact on Allianz future growth, but that will be 2026 onwards.

Posted by Tony Tony > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Why dividend not announce yet?

Posted by wsb_investor > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

too many uncertainties on medical repricing and capital standard where management probably prefer to retain more profit.

Posted by sheldon > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Urgh! It's the one and only event that from this company I was looking forward to.

Posted by observatory > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

@wsb_investor, what is the "50% or 100% negative reserve"?
Some analyst reports cast doubt on the feasibility of DRG implementation at private hospitals. If private medical bills cannot be contained, and political pressure is not letting up, surely insurers will be forced to absorb the cost increases? At least in the next few years.
Unless one or two medical insurers go bust!

Posted by observatory > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

“Failure to cap claims could have some negative implications for future earnings” of Allianz, Maybank flagged. If claims at its life insurance business rise by 20% and revenue only grows 10%, Allianz's earnings could decline as much as 4% in the financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY2026), according to Maybank's estimates.

Posted by sheldon > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I think the insurance companies and the hospitals will have to share the increased regulatory cost. Looks like worst case scenario of zero on the dividend front.

Posted by wsb_investor > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

To be fair, insurers can cap the GL (guarantee letter), more strict on claims, e.g. only approve a RM5000 bill, based on prior experience, instead of always increase the GL amount. Of course, this will increase operational cost, increase complains etc, but what to do.

Inflation is inevitable, and certain sector is understandable will have higher than average inflation. It is a lot better to not price in inflation in everything (not just medical insurance), and hence medical repricing itself is inevitable. It is really just common practice everywhere in the world.

Posted by wsb_investor > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

There is new capital regulation in 2026, where in general, more capital is required, but you are allowed to recognize future profit (i.e. negative reserve) as capital. As ILP is profitable by its design (not because of medical rider), whether can recognize 50% of 100% as capital will change the ILP market in Malaysia.

*only Malaysia and Indonesia (and a bit in India), sell ILP that we all familiar with in the life insurance. Other markets, say China, Singapore, or UK, the ILP can be very different. Blindly refer to introduction or Pros/Cons of ILP from other markets is just plain ignorance.

Posted by wsb_investor > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Many pro-democrats (e.g. Codeblue editor) like to give unrealistic advices, like give NCB for medical insurance, or prevention, or DRG. Even on Linkedin, many people (including "industry expert") still think medical insurance from the point of motor insurance, ignore the fact that most medical insurance are sold as ILP, and those non-ILP are supposedly have increasing premium (i.e. from age 50 to age 51, you are paying for premium as you getting older, and extra 1 year of medical inflation, note BNM doesn't not cap the premium increase as you age.).

NCB or early prevention (e.g. AIA vitality) all will come with extra cost. When government now capping the premium (i.e. profit), who will spend extra cost on these? Personally I foresee in 2025, GL issuance will be a lot stricter, insurer/TPA ground staff onsite to monitor hospitals etc. Some procedure claims will be rejected, say unnecessary scanning or blood test. Deposit for admission (charged by hospital) will increase.

Surprised how fast people "forget" things. In early 2010s, there are a lot medical frauds, where policyholders by intention, admit to hospital, say for stomach ache, stay for 1 week, to claim for cash allowance (can up to RM800/day). Even agents publicly promoted this unethical practice.