Border line again, to break or not to break ^..^

Below 14 is certainty 。。。

Yamaha Vietnam should had hit the bottom on last FY and last few Quarter.
Effort should had done on Vietnam operation.
Relocation of CEO India to replace CEO Vietnam will bring results to Vietnam hopefully. India is world No 2 motorcycle market but is No 1 market to Yamaha.

Vietnam contributed about 130M ( peak ) to HLIND profit however dipped to below 100M on last FY.
For new FY, with the good run on Malaysia operation, if Yamaha can contribute 60M profit ( 15M per Quarter ), we will see a better EPS to HLIND FY2020.

Hlind
10.10
PE slightly below 10
DY above 5

FPE will be further below 10 once Vietnam recovering
FDY will move forward nearing 6 regardless Vietnam performance on huge cash in hand.

0.49 now .... Hehe the FA show begins ...
No end to the downward sliding and even without any lights after the long and dark tunnel

When the last bull sell, the bear is nearing to the end.
When the last bear buy, the bull is nearing to the end
@@

1. MFRS 9 was introduced when Kenji still around. He was with the company for long and know well company operation. Impairment provision need huge subjective judgement. So, the QR is within the range when Kenji is around.
2. The first QR new CEO took over, suddenly QR huge down by huge impairment. Reason : a) new CEO follow strictly on MFRS 9 and press hard on the brake. b) maybe to sweep away the dirty shit left by ex CEO. c) he is not so familiar with the new game rules
3. But from the Q3 FY 2020, ie the second quarter new CEO in office, the provision has cut short with 40M. He will slowly get use to company operation and make things normal again.
4. New accounting rules won't kill a company, except the company with fake accounting practices.
5. Next QR, high possibility the company will post a profit of 100M, the profit level it suppose to be.
6. When things normalised and the growth still intact, FY 2021 QR, it shall be , and hopefully, the QR will have profit of 100M level.
7. Market is irrational, short term fluctuation is by demand and supply of the liquidity. When we have desperate seller , then we need to wait till they finish dispose.
8. I still remember Allianz posted good QR last year ( or 2018 ) the market also can press the price down till 11.80. haha, a big frog jump from the sky.
9. Hope Aeoncr is also the same case.

Current pop corn show now will be :

1. How is revival plan in Yamaha Vietnam
2. How is revival plan in Honda Malaysia
3. How willing Hlind to increase its dividend payout and how much increment and how soon

The 3 factor will decide how far Hlind share price will go

Honda dominates world motorcycle industry with huge gap with main contender Yamaha. In most of the market , Honda market share is more than 70%，and some ( not many ) even more than 80%.

Yamaha, outperform Honda in some market where Malaysia is one of it ( but not many ). Honda dominated Malaysia long ago, due to its engine reliability. But Yamaha overtook Honda years ago, one of the very main reason is it's engine quality ( where Honda faced with huge quality drop in reliability. Reason for the quality drop unknown ) Another main factor that make Yamaha huge surge in Malaysia is its younger and dynamic design. Yamaha marketing and servicing effort is of another factor for the success for sure.

BUT ......

A giant won't let it's market share eroded simply without an effort to rescue them.
Eg 1. Coca cola set up own plant in Malaysia to market it's own product years ago ( divorce with F&N )
Eg 2. CEO Yamaha Vietnam was replaced by CEO Yamaha India to rescue Yamaha Vietnam. The effort hopefully can be seen after 2 quarter.

Last year, CEO Honda Malaysia was replaced by a Japanese to resurrect Honda Malaysia. ( I not sure ex CEO is Malaysian or Japanese )
Honda Malaysia market share is on the rise. We have seen Yamaha Malaysia still enjoying very fruitful profit. But this is due to enlarged TIV of motorcycle Malaysia where in fact Yamaha Malaysia is facing declining market share from over 40% to 36% now.

To be continue ....

13.50, a "close eye buy" price. Company is still growing and growing very solidly. Nothing changed except MFRS 9. Time will tell. Only uncertainty is : timing can't be predicted 。。。

15.90 DY 4.088, ex date price 15.25 DY 4.26. next year Div minimum 0.80 say 0.87, at 15.90 and actually is 15.25, DY is 5.7 and people still dumping ... 呵呵 。 This is share market 。 。。被人笑我太瘋癲 ，我笑別人看不穿 。。。

Ya, beautiful on touched 52 weeks low again @@

http://homefinder.com.my/property/news/allianz-life-wins-the-brandlaureate-industry-champion-brand-icon-award-2019/

Very soon will know, is either goreng factor or FA factor, 呵呵

江山易改，本性難移。投資的藝術，不外乎人性的evaluation 。。。

A very good and solid business, with good cash in hand + limited debt, but turned into loss making + nearing 400M debt company. With such track record, but still hoping its to turn around, is like betting on 4D or Toto or Damacai, the winning rate is very very very slim 。。。。 The management team is still the SAME few people, and this is family business 。。。。

Not too long from now, the earning is even not enough to cover borrowing interest.

Manage ur emotion before manage ur share portfolio @.@

Another bad QR and borrowing nearing 400M now !!

兩岸猿聲啼不住，輕舟已過萬重山。
猴猿瞪眼未開悟，輕舟劃過－石舞山 ( 15.30 )。
山巒環繞不適住，箭步飛向－適留山 ( 16.30 )。

QR seen improving.
Interest expense / revenue ratio up 0.81% maybe implying lower profit margin on M40 segment.

QR slowly back to normal as impairment loss narrowed down on sizeable amount.

No more downwards pressure.
Up swing ? Just see how market read the report.

The hawk is helicoptering 。。。

The beauty of FA： what should come down, it will come down. What should go up, it will go up . Share market is a sure win game, no way to lose 。。。

Border line 。。。 Welcome to team 14.XX

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/606280

HLind included in new syariah list. Rocketing !!

Dumping is over 。。。
When DEMAND is greater than supply 。。。

New MSCI index will take into effect on 27th. The dumping should be coming to the end.

Current rise purely goreng factor

The worst is over for Aeoncr

About 85M net profit

Perfect eleven again 。。。

Move up silently despite weak KLSE and weak Vietnam sales, maybe hint that :
1. Current price still deep undervalued.
2. Malaysia sales is still solid with room to grow.
3. Dividend payout to be increased.
4. Vietnam recovery is to be seen in 6 months time (hopefully) with new Vietnam CEO just in place.

Action speak louder than word. Time to buy, buy. Time to sell, sell. Time to hold, hold. 呵呵

16.40 now hehe ...
Those panic sold after QR, now new round of panic ...

16 now 。。。 呵呵呵

Flying 。。。

Dilution is nearing insignificant. If there is good dilution, u will see it directly at diluted eps. Company had clearly stated that dilution is nearing zero, so had totally ignored the diluted eps column.

Fair value at 16 to 17.30 。。。 Lets see how it move 。。。

Let's see it come to 11 and 12 level first , then slowly move 。。。

FRYING now 。。。 @.@

Something is brewing ,。。。 Next QR 85M profit @_@

Flying or crying now @_@

If now still at MFRS 139, this QR is at 110M profit vs MFRS9 49M. Everything still remains good, revenue historical high. Only different is presentation style with different accounting method.

After panic dumper finish, it will bounce back no worry.