With much of the world still in the grip of the Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing’s critics and opponents, led by the US, have upped the ante in the blame-shifting game as they line up to pursue an international investigation into the origins of the deadly virus.
The coronavirus has also derailed most of China’s diplomatic agenda for the first half of the year, with Xi’s planned state visits to Japan and South Korea postponed.
Meanwhile, China’s relations with the European Union have become more tense, though Beijing managed to dodge a bullet at this week’s World Health Assembly, which adopted a mildly worded resolution drafted by the EU to carry out an independent inquiry into different countries’ response to the outbreak at “an appropriate time”.
But a growing number of European countries have pushed back against China’s diplomatic assertiveness and followed Washington’s lead to press Beijing for greater transparency over the coronavirus.
Shelley Rigger, a political science professor at Davidson College in North Carolina, said the CICIR report, if confirmed, offered a clear-eyed assessment of the situation and did not have the usual triumphalist tone present in many papers on international relations from China.
“That’s a good thing. Everyone needs to be realistic, and not indulge in wishful thinking or overconfidence,” she said.

‘Worst-case scenarios’
The deterioration of US-China ties has clearly alarmed Xi and his top aides. On April 8, the Chinese leader issued an unusually stark warning that “we must get ready for the worst-case scenarios” in light of unprecedented external adversity and challenges, according to Xinhua.
While the state news agency did not elaborate on what Xi meant by worst-case scenarios, a recent study by a Chinese government-backed think tank offered some hints.
The China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, said Beijing may need to prepare for armed confrontation with Washington amid the worst anti-China backlash since the Tiananmen crackdown in 1989, according to Reuters, which cited an internal report.
The report warned that China’s overseas investments, especially the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, could fall victim to rising anti-Chinese sentiments, while the US may accelerate efforts to counter Beijing’s expanding clout by increasing financial and military support for regional allies.
While the think tank declined to confirm the Reuters story, many international relations analysts shared similar bleak assessments of US-China relations.
“We are already in an all-around confrontation with the US, which sees both sides at odds on almost every front – from trade and tech tensions, military, ideological and geopolitical rivalry, to political and legal battles over the coronavirus,” Zhu said. “The prospects for bilateral ties are deeply worrying and we are just one step away from a new cold war.”

Mainland authorities are usually reluctant to play up sensitive diplomatic topics during the annual gatherings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, known as the “two sessions”.
Domestic concerns, especially the socio-economic upheaval wrought by the pandemic, will no doubt dominate the week-long meetings as the country faces the deepest economic contraction in decades, mass unemployment, and a possible manufacturing exodus from China.
However, the sharp decline in relations with the US in recent months and its possible consequences are expected to loom large in the minds of over 5,000 participants at the two sessions, according to Gu Su, a political scientist at Nanjing University.
“Considering the boiling tensions with the US over Covid-19 and the resulting scrutiny of China’s global ambitions – which have dealt a heavy blow to the economy, especially at local levels, and left the country increasingly isolated – it may be hard to suppress such discussions,” Gu said.
Given the widespread public interest in these contentious topics, Xi and other top leaders may need to weigh in personally and set the tone for the national debate, especially on the future of China and US relations, he said.
But it would be unrealistic to expect major policy decisions on diplomacy, as “the two sessions are not usually known for substantial foreign policy deliberations”, said Zhu Feng, an international affairs expert at Nanjing University.

But since then, the devastating Covid-19 pandemic has driven the deeply fraught US-China relations to the brink of an all-out confrontation as a result of strategic distrust and misperception, said Wang Jisi, president of Peking University’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies.
“China and the US are shifting from an all-around competition to a full-scale confrontation, with little room for compromise and manoeuvring,” Wang said in a speech in late March. “We cannot rule out the possibility that the two powers may fall into the Thucydides trap.”
That seems to sum up the tone of recent communications from the US side. Trump has vowed to “take whatever actions that are necessary” to seek reparations and hold China accountable for the Covid-19 disease that was first identified in the city of Wuhan at the end of last year. His top aides, especially Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark Esper, have been particularly blunt.
During the Munich Security Conference in February, Esper described China as a rising threat to the world order and urged countries to side with the US in preparing for “high intensity conflict against China”.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2017, Xi said the Thucydides trap “can be avoided … as long as we maintain communication and treat each other with sincerity”.

Harvard professor Graham Allison raised the question in a 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? The reference being to the Greek historian of 2,500 years ago and the conundrum named after him on the likelihood of armed conflict when a rising power challenges a ruling power.

While observers generally agree that an all-out war between the nuclear-armed nations is improbable, there are potential risks for a limited military conflict.
President Xi Jinping has shown personal interest in the Thucydides trap concept, which Allison first posed in a 2012 newspaper article, referencing it on at least three occasions, including the eve of the swearing-in ceremony of US President Donald Trump three years ago.

Destined for conflict? Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and the Thucydides trap
Tense relations with the US and the question of whether armed confrontation can be avoided will loom large when China’s political elites meet
Structural shifts in balance of power have brought the countries closer to the brink, analyst says, with the South China Sea the most likely flashpoint

This is the fifth in a nine-part series examining the issues Chinese leaders face as they gather for their annual “two sessions” of the National People’s Congress and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference this week. This story looks at the sharp decline of US-China ties, and where it may lead.
When thousands of China’s elites flock to Beijing for the delayed national legislative session starting on Friday they will face a renewed debate about relations with the US. Specifically, can armed conflict between the two economic superpowers be avoided?
The question is not new, but it has taken on a new urgency as the acrimony escalates between Washington and Beijing amid the Covid-19 pandemic, exposing growing cracks in the current global order.

We heard Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday expressing interest in joining CPTPP (previously called TPP before Trump pulled USA out because it was credited to President Obama), but I suspect the members would prefer to wait out the coming presidential election which is only months away.
The possibility of a new president be he a republican or democrat coming back to revive the original TPP is great.
So let's wait and see.

First thing up on the agenda is to diversified all or most of your foreign reserve away from US treasury!

MRT OH MRT when are you coming to Ageson station? I wonder how i wonder why......and of course WHEN?!

Ageson tomolo fly...........

Actually that should have happened on Wednesday of Sheraton week. PH 92 + Tun Bersatu 6 + Warisan 10 + GPS 18 = 126. Agong would have reappointed Tun M as PM. But it didn't happen because PH decided to turn their backs on Tun M. On Tueday night at meeting at PKR HQ. They decided to nominate Anwar as PM instead. They were very confident they would succeed as they were all smiles when they met the Agong on Wed. But it turned out to be a disaster because GPS withdrew support. They only support if Tun M remained PM.

“The king said he advised Mahathir not to resign, but he insisted on doing so. And when the PM’s post is vacant, the king is obliged to fill it with a person he deems best.

“The selection was done openly and transparently as per the Federal Constitution. The king found Muhyiddin Yassin to command the support of the majority in Parliament.

“Who do you blame for all this? When there is a vacancy, it has to be filled,” he said at a press conference after meeting Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor at Wisma Darul Aman here today.

Azmin said the rakyat should not be dragged into politics “until they suffer”.

“There are individuals who are power crazy and eager to be PM. Enough, I say. Don’t blame Perikatan Nasional, what has happened is a PM has resigned.

“Now, it is time to concentrate on serving the people,” he said.

Earlier, a report by Sin Chew Daily said there would be a “coup” in July, with Mahathir requiring “just three seats” to regain power.

The daily, quoting a source, claimed that three MPs holding ministerial positions were planning to defect to Pakatan Harapan.

It said PH will have the support of 129 MPs in the 222-member Parliament.

What coup, Azmin asks over rumours of 129 MPs ‘backing’ Dr M

ALOR SETAR: Senior minister Mohamed Azmin Ali today said rumours of a “coup” by Dr Mahathir Mohamad to topple the Perikatan Nasional with the support of 129 MPs were “unheard of”.

Azmin hoped all MPs would take heed of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s advice to not cause another political turmoil.

He said they must realise that PN was in power because Dr Mahathir resigned.

“I don’t know where this 129 (MPs) came from. But let’s look at the Agong’s speech in Parliament recently.