UPA the new GEM??

the new planned production data rather similar to Notion.

at RM2.00, Notion mkt cap shot up by rm1.20 x 505m shs = rm600m

UPA rose from 2.0 to 3.30 level,
mkt cap increase rm1.30 x 77m shs = rm100m

what a huge gap. Notion deserves a premium for its head start.. but what is a fair premium ?

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this could be 1997 crisis all over again if this health pandemic is not resolved in the next few months.

mana ada PER 3-4x?

do you know what is 2020 EPS?

if we have 2 or 3 quarters of sharp growth contraction, what do you think EPS would be?

how about the company's ability to service debt interest and principal?

what if oil price stay below Petronas break even cost for prolonged period of time?

Yeah. Cash is King!

this could get worse. lets hope there is solution for this health pandemic soon.

we have not seen the worst in terms of economic newsflow yet. what if we go into more than 2 quarters of contraction? now, a lot of economists forecast global recession.

a lot of companies would go bust. sales and profits drop. Bank balance sheet got hit with bad debts.

it could be 1998 all over again.

anyway, just my 2 cents thoughts. stay safe and trade with money you can afford to lose!

Go check the Balance Sheet.

Its net debt. check the annual earnings and cash flow. Even at last years oil price, you can have an idea of the company's ability to service its debt obligations. Interest expense is in the income statement.

at today's oil price? if it does not recover soon ,,, well, ...

a lot of stocks are relatively inexpensive now.

look at the balance sheet. Is the company net cash or net debt? if company is net debt, can it service its debt if revenue and earnings plunge? what if this pandemic last for months and economic contraction last for more than 2 quarters , which is now becoming more likely as technical recession is 2 quarters of negative growth rate.

lets put into perspective

2018 EPS 17.2sen
2019 EPS 24.3sen

2018 share price 0.90 to 0.50 end 2018

EPS +41% from 2018 to 2019

share price increase by more than 300% (assuming 0.90 to 2.90)

clearly this is momentum stock.

what is 2020 EPS? how much is Dayang really worth?

based on 2018 EPS of 17.2 sen,
in 2018 , based on share price of 0.50 to 0.90, Dayang traded at 2.9x to 5.2x!!

maybe we can make a case that this undiscovered gem surfaced in 2019. hence, 2019 traded as high as more than 10x PER.

just take a look at Tesla. Loss making , share price gone from usd200 in 2019 to a peak of usd900 this year. Clearly a bubble. As we write, it is trading at usd430.

what do you think? more correction? or time to buy??

you decide.

Nasdaq post 2000 bubble collapsed 70%. 2008 correction 40%.
Now, Nasdaq correction only less than 30%.
This time it is different. Global central banks have run out of ammunition because this is a health pandemic.

is it really cheap?

if this crisis prolong for months, a lot of companies globally would go bust. Oil price has to recover. Else, we would face a lot of bad debts. Banks balance sheets impaired. If u look carefully, AMBank has almost always been trading at discounts to NAV.

I think we are almost there..some quality companies close to very distressed valuation. Go for cash rich companies. Surprisingly you would find a few net cash, semi blue chip companies in Bursa.

We are almost there..