Take note that this Akia block is still at the very early stage of Geological and Geophysical study. How far away from first oil/gas? One example; 3DS, an associate of Hibiscus was awarded T/49P block in Tasmania back in 2012. Today, 11 years later they are at the stage of exploration wells. Even if the reserve are proven viable, there are still FEED studies, then FIT and actual EPCC before getting the first oil. Be aware however that one example can hardly be representative of the O&G exploration industry. And probable reserve is not comparable with proven reserve as the case of Sapura OMG.

All USD dollar bonds mature only in 2026 & beyond ($0.52b 2026, $1.5b 2027, $1.0b 2029, $0.4b 2030, $1.35b 2031). Casino business is largely cash-based; net cash flow from operation of RM7.3b in 2022 has exceeded pre-covid levels and will only grow further from here. Huge capital expenditure are largely completed with probably Singapore and New York (if secured new license) as exceptions.

Armada Kraken was the problematic FPSO that nearly brought Armada down back in 2018. A litany of problems from project delays, cost overblowns, penalties and nearly endless production issues had literally caused investors pulling out their hair. So, Armada Kraken + Shutdown naturally trigger those nightmarish memories. Hence, the reactions today..

An one-off ~RM100m hit from current shutdown would be painful but not fatal. It would be a grave concern however if the shutdown is the beginning of a series of problems that is not unlike what plagued Armada Kraken during the commercement of the FPSO. Yet, before the latest problem, Armada Kraken was running optimally for the last 3 consecutive years. Whatever technical issues during the initial stage should have been throughly fixed.

It should be noted the current problem is related to transformers. Just requote from Robert Waters

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Nowhere I saw transformer failure as a MAE (Main Accident Event). Most pumps are in sets with1 online and 1 on standby. Surely if critical, not just 2, there may be 3 to be safe side by side. So are the transformers. And you can always get a new transformer from warehouse, fly it with helicopter and have it installed by electricians that just wire it in. No need to break containment.
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On balance, the shutdown is more likely an one-off freak incident than a precursor to something more sinister down the road. Our fear is our natural defence for self-preservation or in this case, capital preservation. With the risks capped by the return to production later this week, is the market far too fearful than it deserved?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/rigs-vessels/506725/kraken-fpso-offline-after-critical-equipment-failure/

...however at its AGM on Monday the company said it expected production to resume later this week

However it affirmed at its AGM that its production guidance for the year would remain unchanged.

Key points
1) Production will resume later this week. It would be < 3 weeks (from 23 May) if production resumes later this week. Impact would be RM54m (RM18m/week x 3) plus repair cost.

2) It is not stated if the prodution will resume fully or partially. Armada may not recover full BBC cost if it is the later case. Assuringly, Enquest affirmed its production guidance for the year. Kraken is substantial to Enquest's production, yet Enquest did not make any announcement to LSE, implying the impact of the shutdown is immaterial.

3) During the offlines, Armada will bring forward maintenance originally intended for later this year.

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My comment...

The 6-months moratorium on bank loan repayments due to MCO will expired end of September. The very purpose for this moratorium is to ease the financial strains on individuals and companies during this unprecedented time. We are sure that with majority of shareholders being Malaysian, it is fairly reasonable to assume that most of the shareholders too are finacially stressed. Yet, this is around the time when the right issue will be due and payable. Under original proposal, each entitled shareholders holding 1,000 shares needs an estimated RM200 to fully subscribed his entitlement. The required capital layout nearly doubled to RM360 under revised proposal. And we have not yet factored in the nearly 20% in unrealised captial loss from RM1.03, the closing price of JAKS before the first announcement.

We understand the company's difficulties in getting bank loan currently. We also fully agree that it is proper and essential to increase the effective economicc interest to 30% in JHP as per adviced in the original propasal. Now, let's be fair to the shareholders. Do JAKS really need to increase RI RIGHT NOW to pay for future (2 years? 3 years?) business projects or investments (RM20-80m) or expenses to venture into new construction projects in Vietnam (RM10-25m)? Or why can't JAKS raise bank borrowing to roll over maturing loan (RM31.6m)? Eliminating those "extra items", there is simply no need to revise up RI. Fairness here means propotionally sharing the burden of funding between equity and loan market. Fairness also means not forcing shareholders to reduce their shaerholding especially so in the trying times immediately after loan moratorium is over.

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"..75% loan is taken care of by capacity payment" implies that at minimum the capacity payment would cover both interest and principal loan payment. Bear in the mind however different source of loan carries different interest rate. At low end, those loans from development banks probably cost much less than 5% interest rate while loans from Vietnamese banks have interest rate in low teens (Interest rate in Vietnam was around 8-15% during the earlier years of 2010s). Private equities loans? Probably in high teens... What does that mean? If you run a policy guaranteeing loan but not equity, you risk gamification by investors (Max loan, indiferrence to interest rate (government pays mah)). Net results is negative to government due to higher tariff rates.

The alternative is to set the project IRR to 12%. What the government want is to get investors to invest. And quickly. A project IRR of 12% in fact looks unattractive in an environment where interest rate was around 8-15% given the long gestation period. Hence, the many side incentives: USD tariff payment, guaranteed buyer, capacity payment, hedge from coal price fluctuation, etc.. Yes, the equities IRR of 27% would look ridiculously high but that is more to leverage than other things. Flip the ratio to 75% Equity 25% loan, the equity IRR drops to mere 14%...

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/covid-19-knocking-the-lights-out-in-vietnam/
Delayed investments will bring greater power crunch once the economy recovers from this Covid-19 pandemic. Economics 101 tells us when demand outstrips supply, the balance of power shifts to suppliers. Foresee parallel to the golden years for IPPs Malaysia post 1992 TNB blackout.

https://paultan.org/2020/01/02/proton-records-11117-registrations-in-december-100821-units-sold-in-2019-saga-and-x70-top-sellers/

https://www.proton.com/en/press-release/2020/january/proton-announces-top-10-highlights-for-2019
Total sales 2019 - 100,921 units. QoQ +17.0%, YoY +99.2%
Dec sales ~ 11,755 units, highest since 2015

The formula you used fails to capture the essence of WB's "owners earnings". Quoted "..simply the total of the net cash flows (owner earnings) expected to occur over the life of the business".. Equating Capital Expenditure & Acquisitions of Companies as similar to Average Annual Maintenance Capital Expenditure is comparing an orange with an apple. A new acquisition or new capex will generate new flow of revenue and cash flow while maintenance capital is simply to preserve existing revenue and cash flow. Just look at the jump in revenue and profits for the last three years... Similarly, SAPNGR and SERBADK are dissimilar as one invested at the peak while the other at the crest of oil price. Of course, you could be right if oil price drops to $30 per bbls and STAYS there....

Is debt free and net cash is RM220.9m or 58.1 sen. At RM1.00, excluding cash CSCSTEL is only valued at 41.9 sen per share.

Sept Sales - 8,934 unit; Saga - 3,994 unit (Top segment A); Total Saga booking - >20,000 unit @ 30 Sept

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/proton-reclaims-second-spot-sales-july

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-slaps-16-antidumping-duties-flatrolled-steel-products-china-vietnam

A lesson for investors: NEVER ACCEPT an offer until the offer has become UNCONDITIONAL irregardless what your remisiers/brokers say. In the worst case scenario, you may have to go through the trouble to submit the acceptance of the offer by yourself or sell it at a slightly lower price at the market.

Investors must be aware that the process of returning share of failed offer could take a week or more!!!

For those who accepted the cash offer, the share will only be credited back (means available for sell if desired) next week, no exact date given. Kindly note that this is the target date only. Information from share registrar.

Mulpha's 22.6% associate AVEO posted 2H profit after tax of A$131.6m (RM442m). Mulpha's share for 2Q2017 ~RM80m+ (after deducting RM18.8 associates share of results in 1Q2017). Other Mulpha's major associates are 33% New Pegasus (London Marriott Grosvenor Square Hotel) and 24.5% Thriven