WTH, Inari is now KLCI stock not Westport

https://research.ftserussell.com/products/index-notices/home/getnotice?id=2602589&_ga=2.103719237.452206553.1638754984-1552262621.1637028126

my info says QR results for both Supermax n Harta is on 27th October, n Supermax results after mkt close.

Technically, both Top G n Supermax r potentially forming Head & Shoulder formation on 30 mins Intraday. Trigger point for Supermax is 9.20 while Top G is at 8.70 ish.

7 Glove Call Warrants (4 on Supermax, 2 TG n 1 Harta) looming next week, and 1 more on Harta Lega on 6th November, this is quite concerning.

I totally agree with you guys, it DOES NOT make sense with such high profitability potential on Supermax and other glove stocks, but we also know IBs wont play fair. But I cant blame them, because they also like every does, that the last time these glove stocks released their results, they did collapse.

Im very hopeful, but i do know if it goes wrong, I will cut loss. Just my 2 cents, not an advise to buy/sell.

SC PLEASE DO SOMETHING!!!

Heard that they gonna pull a Top Glove n release results earlier. mayb next week, mayb month end. Either way, wait for confirmation on Bursa's website today

Im surprised no one make a joke giving their 2 cent opinion

@ traderman - yes, maybe HY will drop tmrw but Im planning for future, looking at different angle.

Results is out. We will see how tmrw. Mkt will decide. However, this is what I read from Macquarie Report (Asia Refining: Time to Revisit). Im an old guy so i dont know how to attach pictures or files in this forum. Sorry. Surely some of you can find it yourselves if you are smart.

It is a 23 pages report, so I just include the part that fascinate me the most.

Gasoline price have been sluggish but set to see positive momentum (My comment: Gasoline price have been sluggish but whether it can firm up, well, tough to judge.)

From the report:

Diesel Crack Rallies

In 2018, the most notable movement in Asia's Refining industry seems to be the rally of diesel crack (the differential between the Price of Diesel & Fuel Oil), which reached levels we havent seen since early 2014. Understandably, the implications from widening diesel crack would be twofold
1. strength of diesel focused refineries
2. relative weakness of refineries with bigger exposure to fuel oil.
Unlike last year, when all Asian refineries delivered strong results regardless of their product portfolio, we now see a potential for discriminative performance among Asian Refining Equities.

Diesel crack could further surprise the market (this is the part that SHOCK ME)

YTD, the Diesel-Dubai spread has been averaging USD16/bbl, surpassing our est of USD13/bbl on strong demand from the mining industry. On the other hand, fuel oil-Dubai spread weakness (YTD US-7 vs our est of US-5) has been a negative surprise, raising the diesel fuel oil spread to USD23/bbl.


Amid China's drive for " fuel oil to gas switch", China's YoY demand growth for fuel oil dropped sharply, to -7% in December. Considering China is becoming increasingly serious on the nation's environmental reform, we think the recent widening spread between diesel and fuel oil as being structural. Out to year 2020, Global Industry Research firms, including IHS, FACTS and PIRA, expect diesel - fuel oil spread to expand even further, from current USD23/bbl to USD56bbl, due to potentially ongoing diesel strength and fuel weakness as the sulphur limit for shipping fuel by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) could switch > 50% of the current fuel oil demand to diesel.

Thus, this could be new catalysts for Refiners, not just HY. Demand for Diesel could see a STRUCTURAL SHIFT and therefore, increase Refining Margins.

Actually, Im not sure what to make out of this. Sounds believable, but let see how HY behaves tmrw. Tomorrow could be the effect of over expectation of HY's results, but within few weeks could be the expectation of Asian Refining Industry. We all buy stocks because we think it can go up, so if if HY comes to a level that is attractive and from that point onwards it can go higher, Ill buy.

Im just sharing info here. Price, will always be decided by market.

Agree. whats wrong with some people wanting to see this stock crash? What benefit do u get? Such sour grape. I myself think the result was good, but not great as some people were expecting. Their many great results on many quarters was helped by HY not having to pay tax by utilizing their tax credit. But with Taxation, their EPS should normalize to RM2.00-2.50 for 2018, which is, still single digit PER. Come on, it was a known factor. Dont tell me you think there wont be taxation. And increase cost? Well, higher admin cost. Of course la. Results so good dont give staff bonus ka. I oso quit that company if give no bonus. Higher Manufacturing cost, I dunno. Maybe higher volume?

Still, their 2cents Dividend really made me laugh. But, I think I can understand why. They need the money for their expansion and, a friend of mine gave me a report from Macquarie Title "Asia Refining, Time to Revisit" released Yesterday. What I read there really gave me a SHOCK on Refineries potential, especially Refiners who concentrate on Diesel. So good the potential if im HY ill postpone upgrading the plant haha.

Ill update later on what I read on the report. Going to eat first.

If HY doesnt close above 14 i think ill take a break from mkt n come back after next week holiday lah. Good luck guys. Keep on fighting the good fight

Read more comments asking why they need to borrow money when they got money. Erm, whats the problem? Pchem & Tenaga oso got so much cash, they still borrow.

U got 1mill cash n u want to buy a car worth 100k. Np if u want to buy cash but u could oso take loan. Its very normal to borrow nowadays. Capital Management.

But yes, i do think HY might consider giving dividend. Please check Digi’s financial statement. They must be a horrible company coz they borrow a lot as well to do biz (sarcasm)

If you borrow money because u got no money to pay debt, then it is a problem. If u borrow money to do business (and very profitable business right now) or expand biz then it is a good thing to do.

Banks gives u an umbrella when it is sunny but ask to give back d umbrella once it starts to rain.

I suppose these banks dont consider HY as an Oil & Gas company since banks were so hesitant to lend to any oil related biz company. As usual, banks offer loans when u dont really need it. Business must b good n rates must b attractive for HY to consider refinance. Good business sense from both side.

Does this mean Shendong HY doesnt have to guarantee the loan anymore, coz they had to when they took over from Shell.

Be Patience. I like mkt action today. Volume so low, which i think is more due people who bought HY recently r not contra players. There will always be contra players in any stock but for today, just have to wait until force selling is over.

If after force selling is over mayb it is ready to move after lunch?

Coz 30mins chart looks so inviting. It is a type of chart when ill take risk. Bear in mind I say risk. Nothing is certain on stock mkt. But i like this chart, potential is high and i know when to get out if I understood it wrongly

Good news is that there was another attempt to panic mkt but it didnt work this time

Is it just me or HY 30 mins chart looks like Reverse head & shoulder, which if it breaks and close above rm15, upside is rm18???

So last week monday till Thursday evening session price went lower, Friday change d trend price went higher after lunch. If we see this again today, instead of scaring buyer, mkt behavior could change to scaring seller

Thanks moneyjohn for your links. That is useful info

IF IB really did short this week to push down HY then good luck to them next. I wont envy their headache.

But to all of you, do your part and fill in your vehicle with Shell fuel today haha

If HU close today above 13.80 and Petronm above 12.12, then both of them would create Engulfing Bull. If that happens we need to thank all the IBs if they really did short coz high chance they might have to chase all the way to cover their short position next week.

Good luck guys.

I am not obliged to inform u guys when i sell haha

If IB did short, the higher HY goes up, more painful it would be for them. Might not only lose on their uncovered Call Warrants but also on HY themselves. They might be even force to cover their short n push price way higher.

Keep in mind all these IBs have their bosses. And they can make mistakes as well. They took their risk, and mkt will decide.

Bill Ackman shorted Herbalife and I do agree with his analysis. But He also kena by mkt when Herbalife kept going higher. In the end mkt forces will prevail, especially if HY keep on showing strong results.

If HY close above 13 today with 15m volume then it changes the last 4 days trend where afternoon session close lower.

And If it close above 13 today, then short term trend reverse. If it does I hope it becomes like Jaks in November 2017. Woohoo!!!

So many IF, but thats why we love stock mkt dont we

If IB were doing Short Selling by borrowing shares, they are taking risks too. And they have to buy back whatever they shorted, and it could be themselves scrambling to buy back today. The higher HY goes up, the more desperate they will be.

Of course, assuming they do regulated short selling lah, and we dont know what average price they shorted. But, they are all human. If HY rallies u think they wont be panic with their short position ka?

Wah price up suddenly so many comments haha.

Why is this obsession with KYY? Do your research la. U mean you buy or sell base on what people tell u on Forum?

But since so many are obsessed with KYY, n he said Jaks is actually his biggest holding, look at what happen to Jaks price. If HY goes back to 19-20, it does look exactly like what happend to Jaks.

Just saying guys.

Wow volume oredi 8.2m by 11.20. If total volume today is 15m and price is around 13, high chance it will rally next week. If you are wondering what Im talking about pls check what happened to Skpres & VS this week.

If la of course, haha. Who can control mkt

I find it interesting i came back n general raider oso back. Hopefully good traders think alike hihihi

Like this change name from HY to HA la. Move like this give Heart Attrack only haha

See, die again. Not so easy mah. Have to wait and wait until these people clear their position

Chappie

Before lunch very unlikely lah, so many contra players need to clear their position. After 3pm if still strong around 12.30-12.50, then possible la.

Now take risk bottom fishing, or providing liquidity to mkt hehe

Cloudboy

Of course la, volume so high last 4 days. Wont be so easy to close above 13 today but if it does, then i know lah mkt has reversed.

All we can do is speculate. In the end mkt will decide.

Haha i dont really care lah. Like u all im taking my own risk. All I know if HY close above 13 & volume more than 12m today, i want to hold since mkt reverse.

I think I highlighted Bloomberg article that says China’s quota could depress refinery margins for refiners. And I thought i wanted to say goodbye to our beloved HY.

BUT, i change my mind this morning due to 2 reasons.

1. Price dropped almost 20% since I highlighted. It is worth considering now.
2. This is the most interesting part, though honestly i dont really understand, but i bought anyway this morning. Buy first investigate later as Soros put it haha

Yes, it is true that January Crack Spread dropped. And yes, it recovered. But what I find amusing is that if you look at April, May, June Crack Spread, it made a new high. NEW HIGH! How is that possible? Dont these physical traders know that China will flood the market? Something is not right here, and I look forward if anyone can explain this. If my assumption is correct probably could be round 2 on HY for me. But for now Im on the side believing that Crack Spread will remain healthy for 1st Half 2018, except January.

Of course, i have no obligation to inform anyone when I sell haha. Pandai2 sendiri la trade n judge your own position. Good luck.

Well, i dont think i ever told anyone i wanted to sell. Have u?

Usually people just say sold higher n brag so smart because now price lower, AFTER they sold. Sometimes some people complained sold n price go higher. But declaring wanting to sell soon? Got ah? Need your permission ah if want to sell.

Interestingly, when i do buy, n like so many people here, somehow we want to tell people, maybe to share our excitement. Or just mayb we hope more people will join n our little investment goes higher.

In short, grow up. Reality is a harsh teacher. Learn from your mistakes, n do make your own decision in investment, because there are sooo many opportunities out there. Being bitter on this will just cloud your mind on future opportunities. There are chances on mkt EVERYDAY

There are many scenarios and ways for IB to make HUGE money from their Call Warrants even if HY close at rm15.

Jon Choivo, for any investors it could make sense to sell because they hope to buy back lower since price is so weak.

But for IB it makes a lot of sense to push it down because they issued Call Warrants. I calculated there are 13 HY Call Warrants. It is too long for me to explain how It is within IB interest to see HY goes down.

Having said that, if mkt overall call IB’s bluff and let say HY share price jump to rm20 towards Warrants expiry, all the issuers could face significant losses, since they might not hedge their position, and they did not issue put warrants.

I see KYY commented something, but i already wanted to say something anyway.

Im not trying to defend him (never met him, dont think ever will) but logically, if anyone like him who wanted to sell their shares and have that much, why throw in the mkt n crash it down like this? It makes no sense. Its better to sell it slowly.

Personally I think there are other reasons and I think short term traders why are trying their luck when the stock was going down sold it again after t3 or whenever they cannot stomach their losses n making price go even lower. Eventually it will stop dropping n I wont be surprise once that happen we could see sharp rise on HY again. But for now, obviously condition not condusive as so many retailers are in.

Finally, stop blaming people. You are responsible for your iown investment. If u make money its not like u will share it with anyone here.

If anything, there is an element of manipulation if IB needs the price to drop. Its not difficult for them to do it

Goodbye Heng Yuan. We had good fun together, but its time to say goodbye. Will always remember you

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-16/the-flow-of-unwanted-oil-from-china-is-set-to-turn-into-a-deluge

Anyway 4q 2017 definitely will b good. It is just going forward for 1st q 2018, n its only 3rd trading days. Just that mkt so good i want to look at something else oso haha. Never fall in love with a stock. Still a lot of interest on HY so it could easily go up, who knows

U dont refine everything from a barrel of crude oil n get everything petrol my friend

Oohlala, 92 is crack spread. 95 is the actual price of petrol if im not mistaken.

So yes, crack spread has drop significantly last few days, im not so encouraged to Buy HY anymore at this level. Why i think Crack Spread drop is because Crude Oil went up a lot (which is their feedstock) but end product after refined, didnt go up accordingly, hence the drop in Crack Spread.

Good luck guys.

Historical high volume for HY today. Would b very2 interesting start to new year next week

Weiiii dont close below 16.50 la, nanti jadi engulfing bear aiyoooo

Aiyoo volume almost 11m ka. If price dont close higher i dont know how to absorb force selling come t3 n t4 next week

Why lah mkt so slow to accept Heng Yuan is cheap. Mayb need to change name to English name suddenly people believe. Change to Richard Hengry lah, next week go rm20

Hmm i check n it says today is historical high for Heng Yuan. Previously highest was in September 2005, rm12.30. Correct ah?

Go up so much only 1.6m traded so far? Im implesssss

Woot! Woot! Woohoo!

I got no other useful comment. Sekian, terina kasih

Some people told me got msci rebalancing tomolo. got effect on HY ah this rebalancing?

Ah ok, got lor. I miss that detail. Good discussion to enhance knowledge. Thanks for informing me

Taiko Raider, please refer to PetronM 3rd Q results, page 13, Item 17. Loss on Derivatives, 70m.

Then please refer to HY 2nd Q results, Page 9, Item A10. Derivatives - 0

They hedge on US currency for their USD loan got lah, but no hedging or exposure on crude oil or their product. Cant be zero if they hedge. Though on page 12 of HY 2nd Q results showed they got some exposure to commodity contracts. Very small though, compared to Petronm. So, im a bit confuse.

Either way, lets wait for the results to come out lah, easier haha.

Taiko Raider, i think got one more on your summary list. If i look at Petronm results in detail they got derivative losses, which is ok, they wanted to lock their profit. Nothing wrong with that.

But HY dont hedge (i think, they got zero gain or loss base on last quarter result) so they should receive full benefit from high prices. I think lor, looking forward to what u expert think

Waaa PetronM ZERO debt! What a situation n what a company to be in now. Shareholders must be so proud