@geary, so, if I want to buy and keep in 30 years, what should be my entry level? as i said, i think RM5 would be a decent entry level price.
... Ah, in october a bunch of warrants mature and their exercise price is around RM2. c66 =RM1.50, c67= 1.67,c68=2.07.
If those crazy IBs push TG below RM3, I definitely agree with you, it's pretty much a no brainer to just buy everything you can get and hold it like crazy!

Oh not just the IBs... we can buy from that TPrm2 guy as well.

@morpheus61, keep for how long?

anyhow, yeah, so RM2 seems pretty ridiculous, even RM3 is way too low.

RM2 seems pretty ridiculous price for TG. Remember that at pre-covid period, TG was, what, RM5? so that would be RM1.66 post BI.
However, it is a pretty safe to say that TG post covid is stronger than covid pre-covid. I would say that it is pretty safe to value TG post covid at 2-3 times higher market value than it was pre-covid. (rough guess)
so, my personal valuation, RM3.50 to RM5.

I'm not talking about valuation DURING covid, btw. Only the market valuation of TG pre-covid and post-covid.

RM10 valuation means that you think that TG post covid is worth 6x that of TG pre-covid.

I'm sure that TG is going to make huge windfall gains during this covid period, and these gains have been used to erase their debt on their balance sheet (very smart), share buybacks, investment into raising production. So TG post covid is surely worth more than TG pre-covid, even IF/when glove demand drops back to pre-covid levels.

The question is simply "how MUCH more is it worth"

If you were to do EXTREME low-balling and simply treat their covid windfall as a one time windfall, similiar to winning the lottery:
TG market cap pre-covid = RM13 billion.
Assuming TG earns 11b windfall gains during 2020-2022,:
TG market cap post covid = RM24b
so that would imply TP of RM3
Of course, that would be EXTREME low-balling, as noted. adding an 11b windfall gain woudl add a LOT more than 11b to market cap.
how much more? I have no idea.


Again, all of these are just my own estimates and valuations, feel free to ignore.

gghaha. i think 10c too low. if mtr close shop tomorrow, pay off debts, and sell assets at half price, shareholders will get 7c back. 9c if assets sold at market price. (not including their lawsuits, which ARE significant!)

also, depends on whether there are any big news or announcements upcoming. A 5G project would be a big boost.

@investsuccess, did you get any at 0.050? I was queueing at that price for last 2 weeks, I didn't get a single unit. so many millions were queueing ahead of me...

ngs98 you have a point there. ALSO... there is quite a lot of money riding on the PUT WARRANTS for those IBs... and so, you can expect some upwards price pushing when those put warrants near expiry date

look look look, for just... for just one moment, can we put glove speculation aside? I know is the TG board, but can we not just for one moment, put aside the TG and it's calls and puts and all the speculation, and just wholeheartedly wish for an early end to covid, for a better future?
...
ugh, I'm pretty sure that will fall on deaf ears, and my statements above will get twisted into some simple "gloves will fly! BUY!" "gloves will crash! SELL!" childish back and forth.
...
Well, whatever. Whether thru vaccine, or whatever, I just hope for covid to end by early 2021. That is all.

but i don't think that increased glove wearing will actually be enough to end the pandemic. ... I'm sure that increased glove usage has saved many MANY lives during this period though!

@jn88 sure thing. As I said, I just want pandemic to end as soon as possible. If everyone uses as much gloves as possible and pandemic ends in early 2021 because of that, I will be very happy

That is not "anti glove" statement.

As someone living on planet earth, as a citizen of the world, of course I pray and hope for all the vaccines to be swiftly approved, distributed, and for this pandemic to be over ASAP. Pray for an end to covid by early 2021, everyone!

let us all pray and hope that as many vaccine candidates get swift approval as possible!!!!

further clarification on vaccine: The timeline of november vaccine release and april availability means that, based on PFIZER ONLY, the pfizer vacine will begin to be available by october novmber, and by apirl 2021, everyone in america will be vaccinated. That assumes PFIZER ONLY is approved.
As for the russian and chinese vaccines, it is a FACT that various countries are already pre-ordering their vaccines. Again, this is a "will it happen? Will it fizzle out? not sure" situation.
There are many other vaccine candidates in development which have varying dates of approval planned out. Many of those will not get results for several months to come, and unlike pfizer, they have not decided to do early vaccine production, and will not have ready stock upon approval.

All in all, there are far too many variables here. Far too many vaccine candidates that may or may not be approved, even if approved, it is unknown WHEN they will be approved. Unknown what their production capacities are. Unknown what their PRICING and thus their AVAILABILITY will be.

The possible scenarios vary IMMENSELY.

It ranges all the way from "worst case scenario" (for the world, but best case for glove makers), that the majority of these vaccines turn out to not work, in which case, covid will be around for a LONG time.

Best case scenario, however, all the vaccines get approval very soon, and begin production at top speed, and are cheap and easy to produce. ... in the best case scenario, my estimation is worldwide vaccination could be more or less complete by May 2021, and we can all put covid behind us.

And there are all the scenarios in between the best and worst case scenarios.

hahalolwtf, please stop spamming. zzz

Post removed.Why?

from what I gather, Trump said that the vaccine would be "available to public" in october November. Not that "everyone in the public would be vaccinated" by those dates. There is a huge difference. According to Trump, Pfizer has already begun production of the vaccine, "taking the risk" that the vaccine may or may not be approved. if it's approved, they will have some ready stock immediately available. Not enough for everyone, but enough to fulfil his promise of "the vaccine will be available to the public" ... of course, if the vaccine is NOT approved, all those vaccines they manufactured will be scrapped, wasted money.
That's what he claims anyway.
https://time.com/5864690/pfizer-vaccine-coronavirus/
"Bourla is so convinced his $52 billion global pharmaceutical giant is on the right track that he has decided Pfizer will start producing the vaccine before receiving approval from the FDA. It’s a move as risky as it is unorthodox."
"In terms of scale, if you got FDA approval in October, what kind of shipments do you anticipate?
We are planning to have up to a hundred million doses for this year. We’ll be fewer in October, a bit more in November, a bit more in December. And then we will have approximately 1.1-1.3 billion doses in 2021."
yeah, confirmed, trump was telling the truth about that. For once.

....

.
now, whether this is a wise idea? I'm not so sure about that. According to that, I estimate that they will have less than 50m doses in November, which is when they think the vaccine will be approved.
...
IT WILL BE CHAOS.
America is a country with 300m people and 2.5m active cases. ... can you imagine the chaos when Pfizer announces. Hey we have 50m doses! ... so, who is gonna get those first 50m doses?

so... guys... want to take bets? hahalolwtf bought TG put warrant... and he bought on margin. :) ... either that or spreading fear here is his hobby.

@mkt_watcher. AFAIK, margin calls are done at descretion of the exchange you use. afaik, usually, margin calls are based on the CURRENT price. which is the exact reason why cascade margin calls occur, where 8.40 triggers a bunch of margin calls force sales, which drives price to 8.35, which triggers another bunch of margin force sells, which again feeds the chain reaction.
As I said, it is not something new. Look up the history of such incidents.
It doesn't just happen for margin trading either. I've heard of sharks intentionally aiming at people who pledged a ton of shares, and then drive down the price to cause force selling.

eh. did this actually happen? guys? I don't remember glove prices "falling steeply" in june. Was I just not paying attention, or did this actually happen?
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/06/30/glove-prices-soften

@humongainz. It is indeed a possibility. WRP's 6 month ban is the shortest ban on record by the CBP, but it is entirely possible that TG will break that record.
Honestly, I have no idea.

@mktwatcher. actually, now I think about it, I have a guess about what happened there. When QR was released, a lot of punters were screaming "TG going to limit up now!!!"... and the market was flooded with punters who bought as much TG as they could get... ON MARGIN.
These people realized that, and forced the price down... and all the punters got margin called, triggering a wave of forced selling that rapidly drove the price down from 8.40 all the way down below RM8. At which point, the sharks happily scooped up their ill gotten gains.

... it's not a new tactic at all, actually. Trigger a forced selling cascade of margin calls. One of the classics.

@mktwatcher. Yeah, I also thought that those ridiculous sell numbers were just there to frighten people off, and I was mentally eating popcorn and laughing about it, waiting for them to pull those off the queue.
2:28 ticked by, and I was laughing and joking here and on whatsapp, snapping photos, and saying "it will be hilarious justice if their computer freezes and they can't cancel their queues in time"
2:29:30 and I was like "you... you can't be serious" as quite a large number of those sell queues were deleted, but there werre still over 600k remaining queued to sell at 7.17
2:29:59 ticked into 2:30, and I saw the flashing numbers of trades done, and I was like "oh... oh my word... they actually left in it queue."
BTW, the 10.94 x23,200 lots also remained up, and triggered.
I forgot what the algorhythm for pre-market opening decided on as the MID price, but it was a heck of a lot lower than 8:71. ... 8.40? hmm, ok. thanks.
yeah, normal pre-market opening, you would see sellers trying to get the highest price possible while remaining at the top of the sell queue, and buyers trying to bid the lowest price possible while remaining at the top of the sell queue.
The fact that the MID price was 8:40 means that there were definitely plenty of bids between 8.00 and 9.00.
Absolutely no legitimate reason for people to queue to buy at 10.94 and q to sell at 7.17.

liquidity, uncertain.

Whatever people say, there is a good chance of early vaccine. There is also good chance of vaccine failing to materialize. And, even if vaccine materializes, what will production and distribution be like?
If after dec 19, it turns out that china and russian vaccines are untrustworthy, pfizer fizzles out, etc, then yeah, gloves gonna have really strong outlook.
If 1 or 2 vaccines get approval, but supply chain is low, hmm, not sure.
If after dec, pfizer gets approval and starts mass vaccinations in USA, AND chinese and russian vaccines all start mass production and distribution, AND the various other vaccine candidates get good data... well, yeah, that's not going to be very good for glove outlook.

I have no idea nor control over any of the above, just saying that, it could be good, or it could be bad. It depends on what happens.

A bulk of warrants expiring:... INDEED, i think that will take a fair bit of downward pressure off.

US Elections... eh. someone told me that TG ban was because trump told them not to keep raising prices and then got mad when TG said no. I have no idea about this one. Maybe Biden will lift the ban if he gets in, who knows.

post malaysian budget: always be careful of malaysian politicians making some crazy stupid announcements. Glove windfall tax seems to be unlikely, but you can never fully trust these guys not to do something outlandish.

"IPO are usually issued during bullish market...so many are probably...Initial Public Overpriced or Overhyped...Be careful."
Totally agree! ... see my above scenario lol. Apply 10 IPO, and half of them go BUST. ... well, that is true of not just bursa but some other exchanges as well, to be honest.

Yeah I remember back in the old days, during big bull run, EVERY SINGLE IPO, everyone applied for maximum share allocation. Because it was almost like getting free money, the opening price on 1st day would always be quite a fair bit up, and people just took money and ran after owning the share less than 1 day. ... actually, many of them less than 1 hour lol.

Still happens a bit nowadays to be honest, but it's a lot less of a "guarantee" than it used to be back in the day.

... if you are willing to do the research though, and you really really investigate whether a company doing IPO is actually a solid company that just needs start up capital, vs some goreng counter that is run by crooks, you can make AMAZING returns.

@humongainz. I got lucky on Forbidden Foods (aus), handling my mum's investment's and our remisier (MACQUARIE!!! yes, I know lol) told us they got a special offer since they were handling the pre-IPO, and we got in on it. hahaha.
my previous remisier was a family friend, and she used to tell us when there was big news, like IPO or company being taken private. Or, like some of our stupid bursa companies which flip back and forth between listed and privatized, good grief.
There are announcements on Bursa and various exchanges when new IPOs are upcoming, but who wants to watchdog that all the time?
Easiest way is to make friends with someone in an IB, maybe your remisier, and ask them to keep you updated for any new offers. Sadly, our malaysian market is full of terrible con-job IPOs. ... still, on the whole, if, for example, back in 2001 you had invested 10k into 10 different IPOs, 1k each, and topglove was one of them, and 5 went bust, and 4 had average growth, your portfolio would probably be worth over 400k, so that's a 40 bagger in 20 years. Not too shabby. (and, yes, having half the IPOs you invest in turn out to be worthless isn't unlikely)
You would need to apply for IPO shares thru your remisier anyway, AFAIK? That's how I've always done it, but maybe you could just request an application form from the offering company? Not sure, to be honest. Easiest to just go through remisier.
Man, I remember when Astro and Maxis first listed... such hype, such hype.

@newbie8080, well, that's the thing about IPOs (which is one reason that I like to invest in IPOs). If you bought maybank at IPO, it'd be worth some ridiculously huge number today. If you invested a simple $100 in Amazon's IPO in 1997 that investment would have been worth $129,186 at the end of the trading day on Feb. 20, 2020, more than 129,000%.

... of COURSE, if you invest in an IPO, and it grows from some tiny startup company, into the largest company in it's field, in 20 years, your investment will have grown by some ridiculous amount lol!

However... once your company is ALREADY the biggest company in it's field, it's going to be a lot harder to achieve such mind blowing growth. ... to be honest, the fact that TG has such an amazing growth track record despite being the biggest glove supplier around says that their management is truly good at their job.

I have no doubt that the glove industry will grow significantly over the next 20 years to 2040 as you said. ... Whether it will grow faster or slower than other industries? I do not know.

@morpheus61, I'm actually autistic (high functioning), so I accidentally offend people VERY often. And don't talk about when I try and date. Ugh. Trying to understand "social interactions" is very VERY hard for me. (tested and certified autistic, not just calling myself autistic). If I offend anyone, I apologize, tell me what i did wrong and I will try to correct my behaviour.


Honestly, right now, there are so many rumors and conflicting news out there that it is really REALLY hard to figure out which one is true!
And, even if I know something is true... for instance, this screenshot is confirmed absolutely true.
https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv
(I'm guessing lots of other people would have screenshotted this... I hope so anyway)
...
what does it actually mean?
Is it the IBs? Is it ETFs? Is it big sharks?
Are they selling stocks in hand? Short selling? Permitted short selling?
were they trying to drive down the price? Trying to make money from short selling? ... some large shareholders were expecting 5b revenue and 3b profit and decided they needed to desperately sell?
So many possibilities, and I can only guess at what is actually happening... sigh...

so RM140/1000 = RM14/100pc = USD3.40 per 100, and still rising, thanks so much man!

humongainz, that explains a lot... that's a heck of a lot cheaper than the prices quoted on FB, lazada, etc etc etc. of course, the price differs a lot according brand name, material, etc etc etc, so I get further confused sometimes.

I took a look at TG website to try and get a read, but their quoted prices seem to be retail not wholesale. ... good strategy of their's to cut out the middleman and sell directly from website, which is possibly one reason for that ridiculously huge increase in revenue from the previous quarter.

humongainz. yeah I see some people selling on FB, lazada, alibaba, etc. But those are mainly just small fishes who have no negotiating ability and can't do bulk delivery. I know there is definitely some small scale hoarding and profiteering, but that is REALLY small scale. like, they sell individual boxes of 100 gloves ROFL.

Morpheus61, sorry if I'm not smart? mmm. anyhow, again, thanks for your info, and again, it'd be awesome if you could ask your relatives what the spot prices and forward prices are right now! thanks!

@morpheus, if you don't mind, could you ask what the spot prices were for August, September and October? ... that's pretty much the ultimate proof, cold hard numbers. If every month is still increased ASP, (and it'd be nice to check how big the increases are), then you are absolutely correct, the demand is still strong, and glove quarterly reports will just keep getting better and better.

@morpheus, thank you for the info, what you say does make sense.

Again, I repeat, I will not reveal whether I am short or long for TG. Heck, for all you know, I might be BOTH... as I said, some people with expert market timing can REALLY make a killing, by buying TG mother share or call warrant at RM6, selling when it goes to RM9, then buying the put and riding it back down to RM6. (I don't recommend doing this unless you are REALLY confident in your chart reading skills and market timing AND you are naturally blessed by the goddess of luck.)
Even after this whole glove drama is over, I do not intend to reveal to you guys what my actual positions were, what my gains/losses were, etc. Sorry. That's my own private info, I see no reason to share it, other than boasting or going on an ego trip, or trying to make myself sound smart/ trustworthy/ etc.
I repeat, I say a lot of stuff, but as I disclosed, a lot of it is uncertain, a lot of it is just guesswork, and some of it is just rumors with no verification at all. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. I'm pretty sure that, just out of stuff I said today, there will be some stuff that turns out to be correct, and some that turns out to be wrong!

@ikanbilis ... darnit. I was trying to be as neutral, but I evidently failed to do so. Sorry. I shall backtrack and repeat "maybe they are good, maybe they are not, I don't know for sure"

Why am I around here? To learn what other people have to say. Because quite often, I find out stuff that I wasn't aware of.

Why are you around here? If you don't want to hear anything negative about gloves, just keep buying without caring about anything else.
Same for those saying sell sell sell, it will crash. If you are not planning to discuss and share data and just want to say sell no matter what, (i suspect these guys bought the put warrants!), are you just hanging around here to try to spread fear and drive down the price?

@ikanbilis. Dude. What I've said all along is... EVERYONE, regardless of buying mother share, call warrant, or put warrant, should research properly, and accumulate as much data as possible, and then do their own homework in filtering out that data.

Even if you are fully convinced that TG will hit your target price of RM15... you should still listen to people who say negative things or share negative news. For instance, if you hear and believe that IBs will probably push the price down during the last 5 days leading to warrant expiry date, then you will know that is your chance to buy in for a good cheap price!
Conversely, if you think TG will drop like a rock, and you want to buy the put warrant... how do you decide a good entry price? Should you buy the put at 60sen? wait for it to fall to 0.5? 0.4? Is there any huge good news upcoming that will drive TG up, letting you buy the put for cheap?
And the opposite goes for your exit prices for the mother, call, and put.
Those who are buying and holding TG for the long term... do you intend to sell when covid pandemic is over? Or do you think that you should keep holding onto it? How long will covid last anyhow? (maybe there is someone on this board who has friends in china/russia/Pfizer with inside news for us)

ah I see my post was removed. I just type type type and didn't check properly I guess. Not sure removed on what grounds, but, sorry if I offended anyone.

@vc looi, so, your opinion is that glove company revenue and profit will not shrink post pandemic? Ok.
... if every couple of years we have this level of pandemic and global lockdowns, GGRIP our global economy. All airline companies close shop lor,
Not that it can't happen. More pandemics might indeed happen.
BTW, looking at H1N1, in 2009 due to H1N1, TG went from 15 sen to a high of 58 sen in 2010, and in 2011, post H1N1, it dropped to a low of 34 sen. So, +19 sen higher than it's pre H1N1 level, but -24 sen lower than it's peak price.

Of course, it might be different this time. Who can say?

Note: I didn't say "post vaccine" because I agree that covid will keep going even after vaccine is out. But for how long, again, who knows. But yeah, glove demand will stay pretty high even after vaccines are released.
I'm saying POST COVID... as in, once the pandemic is over, I think glove companies will shrink in revenue and profit. If you think I am wrong, feel free to explain to me your thoughts.

talking about fundamentals... you guys are aware that *IF* (and again, I stress IF, I don't know for sure), glove demand falls back to pre-covid levels... some time in 2021, glove supply will have increased by like +50% production capacity, right? due to everyone going berserk in raising production to satisfy current covid demand. That would lead to a massive oversupply glut of gloves.
Again, I stress... IF. Many people are saying that covid will be around for years to come, and these glove CEOs are telling us that glove demand post covid will be still be really huge. (again, true or false, make your own judgement)

How long will this pandemic last? I don't know. How will the pandemic ending affect glove demand? I don't know for sure, but I'm expecting demand to fall a lot. What will happen to ASPs for gloves IF demand drops back to pre-covid levels? I don't know for sure, but I'm expecting ASPs to fall lower than pre-covid levels, due to the ridiculous increase in supply production going on right now. ... Could my expectations be wrong? Yeah, that's definitely possible, I could definitely be wrong. I'm wrong about a lot of things.

I think everyone is expecting all the glove counters to drop when the pandemic ends. The question is... how much will they drop? 10%? 25%? 50%? 75%? again, who knows.
Anyone who tells me that glove will not drop at all post pandemic, huh. Maybe you will be proven right, but... I DON'T THINK SO.

Talking about fundamentals, yeah, TG and SM and all of the glove counters, they are all experiencing super high growth right now. That is a fact. Indisputably.
But, the question is, when pandemic ends? Do you think they will grow? Maintain? or... SHRINK? ... I can't be certain, but, my bet is, post pandemic? All the glove companies' revenue and profits will SHRINK for quite a while.
Fundamentally speaking 30 is good PE for a growth company. Someone mentioned 6 PE for a stable mature not growing company. ... what is a reasonable PE for a company that is SHRINKING every month?
Again, i could be wrong, and maybe ASPs will not drop post covid. But looking at what happened to all the glove counters post-H1N1... I think the ASPs will drop, sales will drop, revenues and profits will drop.

Opposite happened to me. I bought a bunch of eurospan like 15 years ago because they were giving good dividend, then I somehow forgot about them. Took a look recently and they lost 35%... haiz!!!

@loong, oh wow, the TG IPO... yeah, those REALLY multiplied in value in just 20 years eh.
quite fun to hear these stories.
I heard the legend of some guy who bought a few dollars worth of bitcoin when it was just launched, just for fun. Then he forgot about it, since it was literally just for fun. ... one day he happened to remember it, and... wow, that was a lot of money...

... when you yourself are not good at "buy and hold", but your bad memory made you millions thru accidental "buy and hold"... hahahaha...

@morpheus61. Well, that's another question. Is it definite that the IBs will lose money while shorting the market? When the big sharks are shorting stocks, they usually make money while doing so, unless they screw up somehow.
I'm just saying that IBs are even MORE dangerous if they are willing to take losses instead of only doing short trades that are profitable.
Again, that's a huge *IF*. I don't know for sure if they are doing this, or anything. They might not actually be doing this. But IF they are doing it, they are very very dangerous.

How successful they will be also depends on how many IBs work together to do this, how successful they are at passing on losses to retailers instead of absorbing losses themselves, and the actions of those large shareholders who are NOT issuers of those warrants.

Also, gloves are really propping up KLSE right now. It's entirely possible that government says "oy, stop damaging our KLCI" and gets SC to take action on them (this is what SHOULD happen, but, yeah, Malaysia boleh)

Reminder, once again, this is all just theorycrafting. I don't have any actual insider information regarding IBs. i'm not saying what WILL happen, I'm just saying what MIGHT happen.

And, honestly, there are a LOT of things that MIGHT happen, right now. Especially to topglove. Heck, any day now, USA might decide that TG is now ok, and release the detention. TG will fly if that happens. OR, conversely, UK or australia might bow to activist pressure and join in on the ban. (if you read their news, UK and australia have been making noise about TG and WRP forced labor since 2018)
What will actually happen? WHO KNOWS? ... well, if any of you have contacts in the US CBP or the UK/aussie government, please share with us lol.

I noticed that various countries are already pre- ordering the vaccines from China and Russia. Will those actually happen? And what are the actual production capacities over there? How effective will the vaccines be? I DO NOT KNOW.

Anyhow, my point is... things are not all as "perfect" as either the "sell" or the "buy" crowd are trying to push for. many many many factors in play, and that has been reflected in the share prices yo-yo-ing up and down like crazy (either that or it's those IBs and syndicates manipulating stuff)

TLDR: Be careful, and use your own judgement. Listen to various tips and points of view, and use those to form your own decisions, because at the end of the day, you can't contact anyone on this board and say "you were wrong! pay me back my losses!". or "you were wrong! I could have made so much money, but I sold too early!" ... it's all up to you, yourself...

Good luck everyone.

@humongainz, those trades actually WENT THROUGH. (not all, but most of them). So they will be recorded by bursa. mind you, because there was so much buy and sell queues, the afternoon market opening price was nowhere near 7.17, I can't quite recall what it actually was though. In any case, it was ABSOLUTELY SUSPICIOUS seeing last trade done 8.71, and then 1.3b profit QR is released, and then you see madmen queueing up almost a million shares to sell at dirt cheap price of 7.17. Well, the 10.94 queue was probably nonsense too, but that was only 20k units.

To me, it's such a Malaysia Boleh thing that whoever did those trades was not brought in for questioning by Securities Comission.

@humongainz. Firstly, better late than never. Imagine if he told you in 2 months time...
secondly... wengtat, thanks for telling us this, but, everyone, keep in mind... unverified. Unless any of you know wengtat in person and know how trustworthy he is, take what he said with a pinch of salt. In any case... this is not even 2nd hand info, this is 3rd hand. This is wengtat's friend told him, even if we trust wengtat, does wengtat 100% trust his friend?

But, wengtat, thank you for sharing. I will consider your words well!

I didn't see wengtat post anything, and even if I saw it, he's not a reputable source. Therefore any trades I do with this information do not count as insider trading.
...
That's what I'm gonna tell Securities Comission if I have bad luck and they ask me to yumcha, anyhow...

@sk1008, ok that is true, that is true. ... but, ALSO, logically, the IBS would have just hedged their positions properly by buying the mother share before even issuing those warrants.
Sometimes, these guys who think they are very very smart can make very very big mistakes...

I thought they would withdraw at the last second ie fake sell queues... BUT THEY DIDN'T. ... to me, this was pretty much a declaration "you think we can only short the market down by 10% because we want to make profit while shorting? ... well... we are willing to short AT A LOSS. because, mathematically, if we lose RM50 million while driving down the price, it's still worth it to avoid paying out $400m upon warrant expirt"

@humongainz, I keep posting this, have you seen it?

https://prnt.sc/uiyiyv

wengtat "He said they underestimated glove prices when creating the warrants."

This is definitely 100% true!!!
AHAHAHAHA

no, the warrants are more expensive than the mother shares because of time premium. The issue is that the IBs have tremendously large liability riding on the cash payout upon expiry. it's WORSE because the IBs all made these warrants cash settlement. If it was share settlement, they would have hedged by buying the appropriate amount of shares and then upon expiry they just hand them over. And their gain would simply be the warrant premiums. But instead, what they did was they went for cash settlement, AND they did not hedge by buying 100% coverage of the mother shares. Hence they are looking at tremendous losses due to payouts on warrant expiries. If it was American instead of Europenan style call warrants, they'd be completely screwed.
At this point in time, for those who did not hedge sufficiently, they're pretty much screwed. Buying back the options will not stop those losses, because buying back 70m warrants at RM6 when they sold the warrants for 20sen each is over 400m loss, pretty much equal to just paying out the full 400m upon expiry. Buying the mother share now to hedge won't work either, because any gains they make on the mother share will be pretty much equal to the loss due to higher payout on the call warrant.
In other words, the only thing they can do now is pray that the mother shares fall.
... or, perhaps they can do more than just "pray"... cough cough.

yeah someone told me that his strategy was gonna be the small cap gloves stocks, because they are currently "cheap", have exposure to glove price, BUT... they don't have call and put warrants on them so IBs are not messing around so much with their price.
Then I told him "yeah, so our local big sharks and syndicates are messing around with them instead"
hahaha.

@bountyofthebourse then what are you here on these boards for? Are you here just to gather up other guys who are going long on TG and all yell "HUAT AH!", then whenever anyone comes here and says "sell!" you get angry?
For me, I'm here because I want to hear both sides of the story, and see what EVERYONE thinks. And I'm actually hoping that someone will tell me something new that I wasn't aware of. I've learnt some new things from this board some times.
If are absolutely convinced that TG is going up all the way, and NOTHING will change your mind, why spend time on this board? Just here to chitchat?