So don’t know y the CPO rally out of steam

Nah, windfall tax was there since last yr

Reuters corrected- Increased from USD175 to USD375. Not USD375 to USD635 as previously stated. Delta vs domestic sales is USD400 not USD500 (incl export tax). Appologies.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-hikes-palm-oil-export-levy-maximum-375-per-tonne-2022-03-18/

Sslee, the reference price is for levy calculation, not price capping… it’s similar to how Malaysia export tax of 8% being determined. Once it’s determined, the tax/levy will be fixed for the subsequent month…the sales price still fluctuates

And Kak Z, pls don’t open ur mouth, u shall meet ur KPI

Does Indon seller wanna sell to them at current price is another story

What Indon gov does it’s good, India wants more supply? They got it… so they can’t complain much…

Sorry to missed out that on top of export duty, there is existing EXPORT TAX of USD200, hence the price delta of domestic vs export is USD675+200=875, which is 58% lower than domestic price

Hence, local sales price and export price got big diff

Sorry Sslee, price cap for local sales removed… replaced with subsidy…

“ The government this week removed price caps on packaged cooking oil, while providing subsidy for bulk cooking oil.”

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/indonesia-takes-uturn-replace-palm-oil-export-curbs-levy

Sslee, unfortunately based on the above article, ur statement on Indon Subsidy is inaccurate

“ COOKING OIL PRICES SURGE

The government has said it would use proceeds from levies to subsidise bulk cooking oil sales for the next six months, estimating about 202 million litres would bedistributed each month. The subsidy allocation was set at more than $500 million.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-hikes-palm-oil-export-levy-maximum-375-per-tonne-2022-03-18/

Btw, on more extreme scenario… Sunflower oils reduction in coming months will cause shortage in supply, CPO price might increase further due to short supply… Indon domestic price will be up as well, guess what Indon gov will do? Will they subsidise more by increasing levy further? I don’t know…

Corrections- Scenario 1, Indon CPO don’t move, planters will sell more domestically as export levy takes up almost half of the sales price, they can bungkus (if CPO price does not go up, better sell locally)… whn tht happen, less stock for export. Indo CPO price to increase.

RJ, DMO was meant to protect Indon ppl, with hope of price controlled whn domestic supply is more. Why Indon wanna care about foreign buyers? BUT, domestic price shoots up in line with export price, so DMO fails.

This levy is more effective coz it lets market forces comes into play. Buyers can’t complain much coz Indon is protecting their interest. If they keep the DMO, buyers will curse them…

Both scenario, Indo gov and Malaysia planters win

Scenario 2, Indon CPO goes up, Indon planters and gov win win

Scenario 1, Indon CPO don’t move, planters will sell more domestically as export levy takes up almost half of the sales price, they can bungkus. Less stock for export. Indo CPO price to increase.

Kindly note, at USD1.5k, levy of USD675 is 45%. If price stagnant at USD1.5k, they will rather sell domestically as their sales price is without levy. So, market forces will take place whn Indon planters prefer to sell domestically… my 2 cents

Sslee, Indon sales price will potentially move accordingly to the levy movements

Just do ur own studies on all info shared here n be aware that market might not be correlated to reality… if predictions can be so accurate, all will be right by 16 mar… just be careful to those only tell half of the story

Calvin’s analysis, though is not as long winded as urs, but his hits bullseye…

KYY, valuation based on land size might not be comprehensive, unless the company goes into liquidation, thn yes, u will own part of the land value, for a actively operating company, do look at profitability outlook instead…

Btw, everyone can debate, but don’t call names like sinkalan or con or prostitute… healthy debates are productive…

USD300 potential upside

Whn the Indon CPO it’s USD1.5k, the max/cap levy is USD675 as compared to USD375 now… so the delta is the potential upside of Indo CPO, else their margin will erode

Short term, I don’t know impact to Indon planters, but it’s for sure a positive to Malaysia planters… just hoped more stability to the policy as positive or negative, investors wants stability in terms of policy…

Whn Indon gov set DMO 30%, the intention is to increase supply with hope to control the price. Think this has failed coz price still go up. So they push the stocks to export n earn levy, use levy money to subsidise local price instead… yes it is smart as they are net exporter… but Malaysia being net exporter too yet they plan to review the subsidisation scheme…

RJ, levy is on sellers, I m not saying it’s against buyers, but naturally the levy will passed to buyers. Whn Khairuddin reintroduced export tax of 8%, remember? Price of CPO shoots up to cover the tax.

CPO today will be tracing huge Crude Oil gains yday

Chekai newbies only mention DMO remove without export levy hike

Tht is why FCPO is pointing up in the after market yday night

Why so -ve? DMO removed, yes, international supply increase, BUT TOTAL WORLD demand n supply is same. YET additional levy will make Malaysia CPO more attractive…

Wow, based on the above article, he is 89 yrs old now…

Read the article carefully. Remove DMO, up export levy. Remember what happen the last time export tax being implemented in Malaysia? Remember, world supply does not change. But Indo CPO become expensive.

Do u all noticed since Z open her mouth tht CPO will hit 9.3k, CPO immediately on reverse gear? But whn she say CPO to hit 4k, 4 days before tht n it goes higher? Sial

Ah, FCPO is back up with huge vol for Jun

To be honest, the FBMPALMOIL index does not fall that much

Just look at the dividend yield, assuming 60% payout, at current level the normalised div payout is way better than reit, just buy n keep, any land sales will be bonus

Tehcping, today it’s ur day to restock. Seems operators is sien pushing down this counter coz lack of sellers d

50k seller at 995, pls go away

Well, if u don’t mind, u can buy back some. myself regret got frighten did not stock in yesterday, missed yesterday cybersales

Aiyah

These 2 weeks are so brutal!

I did not manage to see it, was referring to maestro85 comments above.