investor presentation
http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/6a7e03_dc26697945b147c6a7bd5b4bab798bf6.pdf

Hi teoct, very good article. TO clarify, Hibiscus only owns 50% of Sabah oil production right?

Anyone knows the status of their new plant in Banting? Fully operational?

THE refinery expansion of Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd. could be finished in two years, its top official said.

“If it is a go, it will be finished in year 2020,” Petron President Ramon Ang said. “The Malaysian expansion, if we will add 90,000 barrels per day [bpd], then it would cost $3.5 billion.

Petron Malaysia operates Petron Port Dickson refinery, which has a capacity of approximately 88,000 bpd, producing a range of petroleum products, which include gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), industrial and commercial fuels and aviation fuels. Its fuels are distributed from approximately eight depots and terminals.

The company also operates over 560 retail-service stations across the nation.

It offers Blaze 95RON, Blaze 97RON Euro 4M and Diesel Max. Its LPG brand, Petron Gasul, provides energy in over 12 kilograms (kg) and 14 kg for households. It also offers a range of industrial fuel products, including Automotive Diesel Oil, Mogas, Kerosene and Jet A1. Its service stations also provide convenience stores with amenities, such as shopping marts and fast-food restaurants.

Ang said Petron Malaysia is “No. 3” in terms of market share.

In 2012 Petron announced its acquisition of a 65-percent stake in Esso Malaysia Berhad. It also signed a deal to buy subsidiaries ExxonMobil Borneo Sdn Bhd and ExxonMobil Malaysia for $404 million, bringing the total transaction to $610 million. Rebranding and upgrading programs commenced in the same year.

“The business in Malaysia is going well. We bought it when its Ebita [Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] is $20 million. This year [2017], we will end at $270 million in Ebita,” Ang said. “With the expansion, it should give us $600 million a year, from $20 million.”

In the Philippines Petron is also planning another expansion of its refinery.

Petron will start the first expansion program next year, bringing the capacity from the current 90,000 bpd to 180,000 bpd. This will cost the company $1.5 billion.

Ang recently announced another expansion that involves expanding the capacity by another 90,000 bpd to a total of 270,000 bpd. He said the second expansion may cost $3.5 billion and could be finished by 2020.

“We can add another 90,000 barrels per day later on, we can ramp up the capacity or to produce more petrochemical,” Ang said. “If we’re going to add another 90,000, that would be $3.5 billion because the first expansion is just a debottlenecking project of the existing refinery,” he added. “The next expansion will be like a totally new refinery.”

Last year Petron commissioned the $2-billion Refinery Master Plan 2, allowing it to produce more high-value fuels and petrochemicals. It said costs have gone down since its 180,000-bpd Bataan refinery can now process cheaper crudes.

The upgrade is expected to foster Petron’s profitability toward end-2016 and this year due to improved margins from the upgrade of its refinery, despite the continued drop in global crude prices.

Petron expected another banner year in 2017 due to robust sales volume, operational efficiency with increased crude run at higher product yields, and effective risk management.

At end-September last year, Petron reported a consolidated net income of P11.8 billion, up 58 percent, from P7.4 billion last year.

Local and Malaysian operations sales volumes hit 80.2 million barrels, slightly higher than the 79.3 million sold in the same period last year.

In 2016 Petron’s net income amounted to P10.8 billion, up from P6.3 billion in 2015.

https://businessmirror.com.ph/petron-refinery-expansion-seen-completed-by-2020/

Crack spread is making new high?!

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-92-unleaded-platts-swap-futures.html

thanks zexon!

TP RM12-16. After capacity expansion, TP 24-30.

zexon, where did you find the spread data?

false breakout?

free cash flow is so strong.

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Part 4 - 八番王的真面目: 几十万的亏损 http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114602.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp
Link to part 3 (chinese) :http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114513.jsp
Link to part 3 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114597.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Link to part 2 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114512.jsp

Link to Part 1 (chinese) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114400.jsp
Link to Part 1 (english) : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp
Link to part 2 (chinese): http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp

In case you miss it:
Part 1 (chinese) - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114381.jsp
Part 1 (english) - http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp

Full story available here (chinese) - http://www.investalks.com/forum/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=36039&extra=&page=1

Link to english version: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/114384.jsp

there will be english version soon

From 2016 Jun report: The IFO division had a record year in 2015 and it will not be able to match that turnover in the current year as the number of lumpy projects available in the market has contracted.

superb article with fact-based projection, very convincing! well done WealthWizard master. Looking forward to reading more of your articles!

Bro Superman, thanks! Are you participating?

SuperMan 99, do you have any idea why Dec 2015 sales drop so much from month to month?

Okok, thanks SuperMan. Will wait for your figure to update in the model. :)

[SuperMan 99 Hi bukithot, my calculated figure should be much higher, but definitely less than 900. Still working on the figure. Will try to publish my homework & calculation by today for discussion.
10/01/2016 09:50]

If only 650-700, then is it dropped a lot from previous month?

SuperMan 99 bro, do you know how much vehicles sold in December 2015 alone? Is it around 650-700 ?

Freebies coming really soon? :)

Icon, if TECGUAN wants to give bonus issue, it should come from Reserves or Accumulated Profit?

新年快乐。多多指教。

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总结一句，你的论证是想要证明什么？有上升空间？还是没有？
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有还是没有，有了数据，自己决定。哈哈。
个人觉得还是有的。大不大，因人而异。

谢谢Superman！

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你说：CCB如果恢复派息，Merz的新模型受市场欢迎的话还是可以有比较高的PE。

回答：这句话是后语跟前言无关，而且跟你前面说的话没有整体性的逻辑。前面说low PE, 上升空间不大，所以卖。现在说如果派息加新模型受市场欢迎，可以有较高的PE，那不是说有上升的空间吗？

再问一句，Merz的新模型不是已经证明受市场欢迎了吗？总销量成长70%，BMW同时跌1%，你要怎样才能判断新模型才是真正受市场欢迎？

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我的补充：
我说的新模型是2016年要推出的新模型。我的意思是如果受欢迎，才有机会突破每月1000辆啊。
每月>1000辆的话，2016的yoy revenue 和 profit growth % 就有爆发力啊。
我个人觉得profit growth %越高，越有机会享有更高的PE。

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你说：由于明年的业绩成长的爆发力难以超越今年，所以成长空间很大部分取决于市场是否要给予PE rerating。除非明年每月平均卖>1200辆车。

回答：
这句话是前言不对后语。业绩需要靠市场的re-rating? 非常奇怪的论调，让人难以明白。也许我可以这样看，明年的业绩成长爆发力肯定无法重复今年的成长(+70%)，可能只是是10%，也许是20%，也许可能可以是30%-50%，但这个并不需要看股票市场的脸色。

如果每个月能有1000辆以上，就能马上有至少10%了，何须1200辆？

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这是我个人的揣测，你可以不必认同啊，没事的。
我只是随意设一个指标是1200辆，意表Merz的销售更上一层楼。
如果明年每月卖900-1000辆的话，成绩还是好，但是profit growth % 就少了爆发力。
所以我随意设1200辆，因为有这样的销售额，盈利一定爆。

我个人比较喜欢看profit growth %。我个人觉得profit growth %越高，越有机会享有更高的PE。

“业绩需要靠市场的re-rating? ” 谢谢你的指点，我不是指业绩，而是指股价。我相信如果你细读也许可以明白我要表达的。不过没关系，这是我没写清楚。

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你说：之前看到Merz的销量已经按月下滑，个人感觉明年难以保持像今年一样的高成长（今年的高成长%很大成分基于去年的low base effect），所以觉得上升空间不大了，就暂时卖出。其实CCB的本益比对比其他汽车业同行还是偏低的。

回答：
当你认同六倍的本益比是比其他汽车业同行偏低的时候，你可能不晓得六倍的本益比(PE Ratio)是远低于历史平均水平(13.94倍)。如果其他同行都享有更高的本益比，但为什么还能同时觉得CCB上升空间不大？盈利的成长远高于股价的成长，安全边际(Margin of Safety)不是更强稳更深厚吗？股票上升的空间不是也相对的更大吗？

另外，盈利成长493%, 全年应该更高，很大的成分其实并不是基于去年的low base effect, 比照过去八年的盈利记录，今年肯定是能创造八年来最高盈利记录。

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我的补充：
“你可能不晓得六倍的本益比(PE Ratio)是远低于历史平均水平(13.94倍)”
我认同。
我在文章里已经说了“之前。。。觉得上升空间不大”，表示是前些日子，因为专注于其他股还没有好好研究CCB所以“暂时卖出”。
股票上升空间大不大是很subjective的。
况且，我正考虑要不要重新买进呢。

你说盈利成长493%，这493%不是以去年盈利为计算基础吗？去年没有11mil的MBMdividend，造成去年盈利是近年来偏低的一年啊。如果把11mil dividend拿掉，就没有493%那么高了吧？我说的是这个。

至于盈利(RM，not growth%)，盈利创纪录是几乎肯定的。

Hi Superman, happy new year! Thanks for your valuable comments above.

Bro murali, good result is because much higher number of mercedes sold this year - coz their introduce some new models that are well received by market this year

Mr Tan, I would like to participate in stock pick for year 2016:
Kesm 20%
Cheewah 25%
Petronm 25%
KIMHIN 10%?
CCB 20%

201509 qtr:
Profit before Tax (“PBT”) increased substantially to RM 6.56 million compared to a Loss Before Tax (“LBT”) of RM
1.05 million during the periods under review. The significant increase of PBT was substantially contributed by a one
off gain of RM 8.55 million arising from the disposal of the following wholly owned subsidiaries as detailed in a circular to shareholders dated 22 May 2015

Hi Mr Tan,

Please credit dividend for DLADY (110sen per share) RM770:

Entitlement Details:
A Single-tier Standard Interim Dividend of RM0.50 per ordinary share ofRM1.00 each and a Single-tier Special Interim Dividend of RM0.60 per ordinaryshare of RM1.00 each for the financial year ending 31 December 2015.


Entitlement Type: Interim Dividend
Entitlement Date and Time: 03/12/2015 05:00 AM
Year Ending/Period Ending/Ended Date: 31/12/2015
EX Date: 01/12/2015
To SCANS Date:
Payment Date: 18/12/2015

anyone knows why PENTA is not paying dividend?