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2015-11-12 00:13 | Report Abuse
Also, since u are a believer of DCF, you might want to look into perstim with high margin of safey and really solid fundamental (fulfill all coldeye 5 yardsticks; ROIC & EY >15%) + monopoly business. Intrinsic based on my DCF computation is about RM7.8 :) Irregardless of how high its intrinsic value is, the most important is how its value to be fully unlocked :) Its publicity is low and not many ppl know about this gem :)
2015-11-12 00:06 | Report Abuse
Coolio, the 1st and only rule of DCF model is to be conservative...your assumption is too wild and optimistic by assuming that they are able to sustain 12mil of FCF. We must remember that cash flow is always lumpy and its industry is very cyclical. To me, i would rather take 3 years average FCF (which is about 8.84mil), assume flat growth rate @ 3% p.a. with discount rate of 10%, its intrinsic value would be around 0.915. Margin of safety (from 0.915) is 21% and upside potential is 28%. :)
2015-11-11 17:25 | Report Abuse
Trees cant grow to the sky. :) take profit around 2.90-3. Happy ending :)
2015-11-10 00:15 | Report Abuse
hitnrun? how you know? you got a crystal ball? or real shit insider news? :)
2015-11-06 09:39 | Report Abuse
Creeping up bit by bit everyday :)
2015-11-05 17:49 | Report Abuse
Cold rolled steel n tin price dropped >20% compared to last year. Means that their operating cost is lower. N they have 30% revenue in usd. All in all, usd strengthening will lower their operating cost as well as improve their margin. :)
2015-11-05 16:09 | Report Abuse
Perstima is the sole manufacturer of tinplate in msia. Tinplate raw material = cold rolled steel + tin. Monopoly business. With moat. Dont miss this gem :)
2015-11-05 08:37 | Report Abuse
Its fundamental is superb. Margin is wide. Depend how its intrinsic value to be unlocked. :)
2015-11-05 08:36 | Report Abuse
Expensive in term of? Absolutely or relatively? :)
2015-11-05 01:37 | Report Abuse
Cftrader, plz take a look at perstima and flbhd when you are free..:)
2015-11-04 20:03 | Report Abuse
Rosmah mansur, plz take a look at perstim! You will love this stock :)
2015-11-02 10:43 | Report Abuse
Tksw, you must be very rich. Buy sell buy sell. Must have made a few millions every few cents up. Salute :)
2015-10-30 14:12 | Report Abuse
Tree cannot grow to sky :)
2015-10-30 14:12 | Report Abuse
Switch kesm , flbhd, gadang :)
2015-10-30 10:04 | Report Abuse
Patience is not only a virtue, but a necessity. U cant produce a baby by making 9 women pregnant in 1 mth :)
2015-10-30 10:02 | Report Abuse
Long way to go to rm3. Can reach by quarter release next mth? :)
2015-10-29 17:32 | Report Abuse
When is our respected mr otb going to push up this laggard?
2015-10-29 17:27 | Report Abuse
Haha. Very amusing looking at the comments. U all must be making few million bucks with few cents up down. Salute. :)
2015-10-27 19:50 | Report Abuse
Q report coming soon. Any surprise? :)
2015-10-26 08:44 | Report Abuse
Lol why talk about support so soon? Funny lol. It will break new high! :)
2015-10-23 19:05 | Report Abuse
Lol. What cock are you talking? 1.70? Haha baseless number :)
2015-10-22 01:59 | Report Abuse
alpha trader, how do you justify your "sell" call? please shed some light :)
2015-10-22 01:56 | Report Abuse
very solid company with good fundamental. high roic, excellent fcf, healthy balance sheet....too attractive...IV is RM3 based on 3% growth & 9% discount rate....still very attractive at this price with 30% margin....just wonder why directors keep selling? the more they sell, the higher then price goes? HAHA
2015-10-21 15:48 | Report Abuse
East wind not strong enough yet :) patience is a virtue :)
2015-10-17 17:28 | Report Abuse
Lol. Plz justify your "overpriced". :)
2015-10-17 16:53 | Report Abuse
Rm8 is a very reasonable fair value. Its pe would reach 15 if it hits rm8. Any corporate exercise or quarter report release would push it up further. Sifu icon8888, mind to share at what price you would consider to exit? :)
2015-10-17 16:44 | Report Abuse
If we refer to dcf model, assuming discount rate @ 9%; 4% growth rate for next 5 years; terminal growth rate 3%; IV would be rm7.60. I am being very conservative already considering its solid order book. If i were to be more optimistic, assume 10% growth rate for next 5 years, IV would be RM9.5. :)
2015-10-15 12:00 | Report Abuse
Its cash flow is superb in recent 2 years. High roic. Solid balance sheet. Why still stagnant since other techno stocks like elsoft n kesm already surged up? :)
2015-10-14 12:52 | Report Abuse
Once you are in stock market, you are gambling. anything associated with risk is gamble. Thats why we have intrinsic value and margin of safety :) am i not right?
2015-10-12 16:37 | Report Abuse
Sifu icon8888, what is your view on mmsv? Another high roic company. Turned over a new leaf in 2013. High fcf/revenue. Ada hope keh? :)
2015-10-12 11:03 | Report Abuse
Hahaha. Smartass paperplane. You have raised a good point lol. But still rm6 i am out.
2015-10-11 00:24 | Report Abuse
Not easy man. Some good fundamental stocks take a very long time to unlock the value...
2015-10-11 00:23 | Report Abuse
The share price will fly high whenever i see rosmah. He/she must have a magic formula to pick good fundamental stocks with momentum.
2015-10-10 11:32 | Report Abuse
Cik rosmah, i am interested to know your basis of iv calculation too...dcf? Earning power? Pe? :)
2015-10-09 22:13 | Report Abuse
Chill la bro. On its way to rm7. :)
2015-10-09 22:09 | Report Abuse
But iv with margin of safety is the best reference that we have. Coupled with some financial metric like roic, ey, roe, pe, fcf/revenue etc plus looking at its revenue/profit cagr + profit margin. Very quantitative in a sense but...the only reference that we have...history doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it does rhyme. Am i not right? :)
Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BERHAD
2015-11-12 17:46 | Report Abuse
Can it hit rm3 by mth end? :)