QES QR is better than Mi, but the share price is about 4-5 times cheaper....with the similar total issued shares. This QES is really under value

MSC（5916）业绩、企业分析
不知道市场因为在这个月内会有较多的假期，我们看到 5 月份的套利活动继 3、4 月份至今加剧了 – 不过，在红彤彤的市场中，有部分的公司业绩以及股价是双双超越市场预期的；那就是大宗商品相关的公司，就好比种植股、钢铁股或运输等等。
但是，我们看到市场上鲜少有投资者讨论锡（“Tin”）的相关企业；要知道从去年 5 月份至今，锡矿石的价格已翻倍，而同时从中被冶炼成品的锡也在 52 周内从 USD 15,297.00 / MT 左右上涨至今天（10/05/2021）的 USD 33,562.00 / MT，呈现了高达 119.39% 的涨幅。而本地这家与锡有关的公司 – MSC 股价却在近期回调，与其亮眼的业绩表现呈现出反差。为了确认 MSC 是已反映价值还是依然有成长空间，我们在本文中将会浅谈锡的应用、MSC 的业务背景以及该公司的业绩表现等。
1. 锡领域浅短分享
锡，因为其较其他金属具有更柔软、低熔点、高粘性、重塑性强以及无毒等特性是早期工业最广泛使用的金属类型之一；其主要功用在于制成焊锡 – 而焊锡在大家最喜欢的电子工业、家电、汽车领域等等都具有非常重要的地位。
比如说，锡可以加工成为焊料（“Solder“）；熟悉半导体业务的读者可能见过用于 BGA 封装中 ”Solder Ball“ 的词汇，由于其金属特性，在加工后作为芯片封装以及连接电路板是目前半导体业务内较为 ”热门“ 封装方式 – 从这点看来，锡的需求量也在逐步提升中。
作为参考，我国的出口量在三月份激增 31.0% 的主要因素之一就是电子产品，尤其是半导体相关的产品在在这期间呈现强劲的需求量；如智能设备、汽车等暴涨的需求间接也带动了锡方面的需求。
以细分产品用处而言，在 2020 年内焊料占了总锡消耗的 49%、化学品占了 18%、镀锡板占了 12%、电池产品为 7%、合金属为 9% 以及其他用处为 9%。
2. MSC 企业背景分析
回到 MSC 本身而言，MSC 的业务包括了锡的开采并加工为锡精矿（“Tin-In Concentrates“）的上游业务以及将锡精矿冶炼为精锡（”Refined Tin“）；即通常为锡锭（”Tin Ingot“）的中游业务。据我们了解，目前 MSC是马来西亚最大的锡矿开采商；在 2004 年前公司完成 Rahman Hydraulic Tin（“RHT”）的收购前，公司的锡精矿开采的产量为 750 MT / 年 – 而在收购后至今为止，在 2020 年公司的锡精矿则上升到 2,350 MT / 年。
不过，在今年来 – 即 FY 2017、FY 2018、FY 2019 以及 FY 2020 而言，公司的锡精矿开采则分别是 2,226、2,355、2,288 以及 2,350。虽然乍看之下并无明显的增长，但是考虑到 2020 年公司的业务部分被疫情影响却依然可以达到 2,350 MT / 年的产量，可见公司的锡精矿生产效率有所提高。
而资深的读者必然会问到下一个问题 – 既然是矿业的公司，MSC 的锡矿还能有多少产量？若以先有的的主要 的 Main Pit 而言，剩余的产量大约为 26,687 MT、而未开发的 Western Slope 根据查询，预计也有潜在的 21,716 MT 的锡矿。不过，目前既然公司还未开发 Western Slope，并且也暂时没有实际的产量作为参考，我们就不多作评估了。但可以确认的话，公司开采锡精矿以目前的锡矿量而言，确实足以支撑公司多个财政年。
其实以锡矿而言，公司在 Sg. Lembing 锡矿场的土方工程以及基础的挖矿设施也已经准备好，目前也已经开始挖矿的活动，但暂时来说平均每天的产量应该只有 0.1 MT – 0.2 MT 之间，但若是展开实际的生产的话，有望达到 1,200 MT / 年的产量。
以锡冶炼的业务而言，公司是全球第三大的企业，其排名是在 Yunnan Tin 以及 PT Timah。其冶炼的产量分别为 80,000 MT / 年以及 54,000 MT / 年，而 MSC 的冶炼产量则是 40,000 MT / 年；而在 2020 年内的实际产量则分别为 74,800 MT、45,700 MT 以及 22,325 MT。不过，公司在引进了新的 ISASMELT 技术后，未来产量可达 60,000 MT – 但公司在 4 月 26 日提及公司的产量可能不及疫情前的水平，而锡冶炼是公司最大的营收贡献业务，因此接下来的营收或许会被影响。
顺带一提，目前公司在 Pulau Indah 新的厂房的使用率只有 30% 左右公司，MSC 也预计在年末会将其在 Butterworth的厂房的产线运到 Pulau Indah 上，而完成的时间点则预计是在 2021 年末或 2022 年初 – 据我们所知，若是完成后因为新的厂房整合除了会提高冶炼成的锡锭产量，同时也会降低公司的成本 – 就以劳工人数而言，新的厂房只需要 300 人，但旧的厂房则是需要 550 人。
3. MSC 业绩分析
伴随着锡价涨到了 10 年的高点，公司在该季度也交出了相当亮眼的业绩。但不知道是否是否不满意公司的业绩 – 公司的股价在今天单日下跌了 9.02%；虽然市场也有传言提到 MSC 内有人受到 COVID-19 的感染，但更可能的是全国 MCO 的消息传出，配合上部分的投资者套利之下导致公司股价大幅下滑。
先不罗嗦，我们先客观的分析公司的业绩表现。
• 公司营业额在该季度（“FY 2021 Q1”）的营业额为 RM 275.9 Million；对比 FY 2020 Q1 的 RM 205.3 Million 以及 FY 2020 Q4 的 RM 232.6 Million 分别增长了 34.38% 以及 18.63%。
• 管理层在季报内提到，公司的业绩增长主要来自于更高的锡冶炼数量以及锡价格的上涨；作为比较，锡的平均价格在 2021 Q1 为 RM 100,115 / MT（可转换成美元计算），而 FY 2020 Q1 锡的平均价格为 RM 69,675 / MT、FY 2020 Q4 的锡平均价格则是 RM 76,870 / MT。
• 以净利而言，公司的净利在该季度为 RM 22.1 Million；对比 FY 2020 Q1 的 RM 13.2 Million 亏损业绩改善了 267.74%、而对比 FY 2020 Q4 的 RM 15.9 Million 净利则是增长了 39.39%。
• 公司的净利率由于随着锡价格涨跌而出现非常大的变化，因此参考价值不大。
• 除了因锡价格以及产量提高导致公司净收入改善之外，公司其实也有通过旗下控股 40.0% 的 Redring Solder (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.（“RSMSB”）以及控股 30.0% 的 KM Resources, INC（“KRI”）联营公司的盈利贡献；在该季度内，公司的联营公司盈利贡献为 RM 1.0 Million – 而 FY 2020 Q1 以及 FY 2020 Q4 则分别是 RM 0.3 Million 以及 RM 4.1 Million 的亏损。
• 因此，仔细看的话若是提出营收贡献不大的联营公司盈利贡献的话，其实 MSC 的盈利在该季度增长比想象中小。
• 从经营现金流来看，公司在该季度净经营收入为 RM 1.0 Million；而 FY 2020 Q1 则是 RM 12.2 Million 左右，不过这是鉴于公司的存货以及应收账款增加，除非全年依然呈现低经营现金流的情况，否则的话实属正常。
• 公司在该季度并无宣布任何股息。
4. 总结
从多个角度来看，MSC 确实会持续受惠于锡价格的增长 – 而下个季度如无意外的话，伴随着在近期锡价格超过 USD 30,000 MT 来看，MSC 的业绩仍然有望持续成长。以前景而言，除了半导体领域需要焊锡之外，目前市场风风火火的电动车领域所需要到的锂电池其实也需要用到锡。因此，公司在某个角度来说可以说是受惠于半导体以及汽车领域的成长 – 而锡价格的上涨也证明了这一点。
以过去平均 5 年的数据来看，MSC 的平均 P/E 估值为 28.0 倍 – 而目前加上公司新的业绩后，MSC 的 P/E 估值以 RM 2.420 的价格计算则是 18.83 倍。剩余的就交给大家自行判断了。

https://www.google.com/search?q=straits+trading+share+price&oq=straits+tra&aqs=chrome.2.0i355j46i175i199j0j69i57j0l6.13394j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Straits Trading is holding MSC a slightly above 50%, it is better to buy MSC directly which is 100% in Tin, while Straits Trading got a significant segment in Hotel which seriously impacted by Covid-19.

james, great calculation...when Pulau Indah plant ready, your figures above need to multiply by 3....as the capacity will increased 2-3 times

This is a blue chip counter like PMetal, if you missed PMetal 10 years ago, then this is a golden opportunity for us to hold 10 yrs. 1000% return is not a dream!!!

Fantastic QR, next QR confirmed lagi bagus, then followed by year end when new plant up 100% then rm10!!!

2nd reason to convert the prai land into commercial land which is similar to F&N Sg Besi (KL) which was very sucessfull to make the extra value to the company

Port Klang emerging as a major LME warehousing hub:

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/28/port-klang-rapidlt-emerging-as-a-major-lme-warehousing-hub

1 of the key reason MSC moving its Prai plant to Pulau Indah which is near to LME Port Klang to save the transportation cost.

The MSC Straits refined tin brand - registered at KLTM and LME - is accepted worldwide, and has purity ranging from the standard Grade A to the premium grade electrolytic tin.

the Group began a tin trading and marketing arm under the smelting division, which provides hedging, pricing and marketing links to the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market/London Metal Exchange (KLTM/LME)

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/21/malaysia-smelting-corp-fires-up-as-tin-demand-shines/

https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Tin#tabIndex=2

As what I know, MSC is using LME price which is in Port Klang. The price for LME is USD32,397/ton on 4/5/2021

don't bonus issue, please chase Nestle price and became no 1 most expensive share in KLSE!!!

What a crazy single order!!! This exclude all other businesses

1Q=15¢
4Q=60¢
RM0.25/RM0.6 = 0.417 PE

This epcc contract Luster profit is guarantee and also got something like profit sharing of glove..what a wonderful contract.

PE less than 1

This is a 10x counter from RM1 to RM10.....hold tight tight!!!

Kenanga raised its FY21 and FY22 core Patami forecast by 31% and 20% to RM131.4mil and RM145.8mil respectively in anticipation of heightened demand for automotive LED.

WAU!!! PAT: RM131.4M FY21 VS RM46.5M FY20

Is anyone here experienced the roadtax delivery delay for more than 3 weeks after renew online? I made calls to them few days also no pick up. What happened to myeg???

yOU STILL CANNOT GET WHAT i MEANT!!! After fired all the foreigners then our local can enjoy high salary by naturally, this is not talking about TG, is for whole Malaysia!!!

upgrade more IR4.0, iot and etc automation machines, reduce foreign workers, hire more local to take the those automation jobs which local can perform much better

Can you see the jobs like waitress, cleaners, guards, and etc in Korea & Japan are foreigners!!! No such thing!!!

of course those big companies they can invest oversea lah to get cheaper labour!!!

Construction, factory workers 99% are local, for Korea and Japan!!!

invest_malaysia @dalpinia, do you know what products Japan and Korea manufacturers? They are high tech manufacturing. They need high skill workers.

Korea and Japan also got many low tech companies lah, I visited there many manay times, bro!!! Even the rubbish collectors are local people!!! Friend, open your eye!!! Freind, Study more!!!

Can be done, 1 local must take up multitasking jobs and more effecient than Bangla 2-3 times then worth it!!!

Malaysia ambition want to be the Advance Country, failed! Then wanted to be high income country, failed!!! All these are mainly due to, too dependent on foreign workers!!! Frankly, PH failed us when they are on board without any efficient actions taken.

invest_malaysia Local people want to work inside factories with low pay? Haha you think properly la

I already thought it very properly and desire it for 60 years!!! All this can be done like Korea & Japan, increase all the salary for local, minimize the foreign workers then our country only can be advanced country!!!

if Bangla RM1k then pay local RM2-3k lah!!!!!!!

1 local is more productive than 2-3 Bangla!!!

Exactly, if I'm the TG boss, I will immediately fire 100% all the Bangla and hire local immediately!!!

masterus All the local jobless because semua kerja dirampas oleh foreigner. And then foreigner complain pula pada usa.

Exactly.....Bangla made the video and evident to USA. They betrayed us, send them back!!! As they all not happy working in Malaysia!!!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/26/president-biden-invites-40-world-leaders-to-leaders-summit-on-climate/

Bangladesh is invited!!! Malaysia, Rakyat shame on you!!!

They can live better in their own country!!!

If really TG bully all the Bangla as slave then, please send them back!!!

TG should fire all the Bangla, send them back to their country then hire local people. Since, many local are jobless. Pay higher to local 1 person can do the job for Bangla 2-3 person, it worth it!!! Just like Japan & Korea, where got hire so many foreigners as labour.

Can we ban the whole USA? As this country is originally belong to Indians. The white people also used to kill many blacks and forced them as slave as well. Even nowadays, they also bullying Black, Asian & Local Indians (Bumi putra USA)!!! Don't talk about human right when your country is manage it badly!!!!

CAN all glove manufacturers of Malaysia stop export single piece of Glove to USA!!! We must united, let USA to suffer with simply ban Malaysia products. CAn we ban USA products like Starbuck, McD, Intel, Apple, Microsoft etc as they also hire illegal cheap labours from Mexico & others countries.....

There are only three wafer fabricators in Malaysia, namely SilTerra Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Infineon Technologies, and X-Fab.

“Today, most of the major wafer fabs are in Taiwan and China, followed by Singapore, South Korea and Japan. Our prominent clients include Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) of China, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), Infineon, Seagate, and Micron in Singapore,” says Gan, adding that the group established its business presence in China 18 years ago and has a strong customer base there.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/kelington-group-ride-semiconductor-boom

Serving high-end customers
Going back to the UHP business, KGB serves mostly high-end customers, including wafer fabricators, TFT LCD players, as well as photovoltaic (PV) solar cell makers. These clients are in the upstream of the semiconductor value chain as they make integrated circuits (ICs) or chips, which is capital intensive.

FOREVER SUNRISE INDUSTRY!!!

“Semiconductor players will always be our major clients. What we love about semiconductors is that the industry has to keep expanding as technology evolves. It is not the typical manufacturing industry where you build a factory and it could last for 20 years. For semiconductor firms, they have to keep investing in new wafer fabs, which means more projects for us. It is like a forever sunrise industry, because we are always chasing them,” says Ong.

WAKE-UP CALL
The consensus is that global tin production will bounce back after a year of COVID-19 disruption, but it’s evidently going to take quite some time to refill a depleted supply chain with shipping constraints a continuing complication.

This super-squeeze looks set to continue.

It’s a major wake-up call for tin producers.

Tin is already set to be a major beneficiary of what is dubbed the fourth industrial revolution. It is also undergoing a period of intense research and development, translating into a lengthening list of potential new uses for the bronze age metal.

China is spending trillions into new Chip factories setup.....more to come in next 5 yrs.

https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3125908/smic-joins-shenzhen-government-us235-billion-chip-foundry-28-nm-node

Another big potential tender for KGB!!!

Traditional cars sales dropped and EV sales up would be the trend, and ultimately fly for D&O!!!

lexxi012........D&O LED mainly supplies to those new EVs, sales of new EVs worldwide of Q1 2021 expected to be double than Q4 of 2020. This "double" can be repeated for many QRs until 2030......sky is the limit!!!

pang72 Yes, boss is selling...

Due to their holding is nearly break the max limit of holding, if not reduce then may goes to PN17 like HLB. The family hold too much which is a positive sign!

rm28K/TONNE