probability: you have until Feb next year to worry about it :)

rizerlee, my view is no:

1. china has allowed aluminium ingots and billets to be exported out with duties exempted as its economy isn't strong enough to absorb the excess aluminium. This will continue to contribute excess aluminium into the market.
2. lme is gradually reducing its warehouse queue issue which had caused high premium. Hence, aluminium producers won't enjoy premium of US$400-500 anymore. Today, they probably receive less than half of that amount.
3. aluminium production overcapacity is still an issue worldwide.
4. The growth of aluminium demand has been slowing down.

Source: my 2 cents