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2019-11-15 11:15 | Report Abuse
不同时代的人,认知层次,水平出现不同,科学技术的条件不同,自然会有不同理解和解读。
2019-11-15 11:12 | Report Abuse
whenever gooshit make call to sell, you better buy, sure money. numerous experience confirmed this.
2019-11-14 21:15 | Report Abuse
gooshit is nothing but a doom addict. variance of drug addict.
2019-11-14 11:49 | Report Abuse
people is immuned to this gooshit negativism.
2019-11-14 11:44 | Report Abuse
gooshit is just low IQ, ignore him completely.
2019-11-13 16:49 | Report Abuse
Woes to the Wicked,and he exposes a sinful act, is righteous.
2019-11-13 16:10 | Report Abuse
trump in charge , wall street hits all time high.
2019-11-12 17:12 | Report Abuse
this is what now called ,parts of large indutrial- supply- chain.
2019-11-12 13:59 | Report Abuse
pity this gooshit , his naive theory could brought him to holland , many, many times,he could be a bankrupt now,..
2019-11-12 12:16 | Report Abuse
the communists wanted to takeover hong kong, and freedom loving hongkong civilians are resisting with great courage.
2019-11-12 10:38 | Report Abuse
fcpo for february reached 2660 per tonnes. and going strong..charateristic of a real strong demand.on low production and low inventary.
2019-11-11 15:53 | Report Abuse
many alternative opportunities still around in semi-con, for example UWC, climbing very well,lower cost , well established.
2019-11-10 12:27 | Report Abuse
construction is abit slow, bank loans hard to get, Semi-con still a hot area,make available by trade war, recently Thailand specially provides large whole province in the north ,for investors/players for developing semi-con industry. Dr.m government , with azmin as economic minister ,is rather slow in attracting investors, these people are out dated.Guan eng should be better, if given the power to develope country's economy.
2019-11-10 09:32 | Report Abuse
we must try our best to share good info to guide fellows investors to make sound decisions, not mislead them into financial disasters. my current stock picks is SOP and gcb, need to monitor further, and carefully. SOP would rise only when cpo price can break out and reach 2700 per tonnes for reasonable long period of time, and B30%(biodessel) policy in Indonesia is well implemented, this policy goes effective by January 2020.For GCB, if the company quarterly profit can reach 60-70 millions, currently 60million per quarter,that would shows the growth path is excellent.
These stocks price currently are reasonably low, so little risk, growth potential is enormously well,provided those factors pointed out ,could turn out as expected.
2019-11-09 18:39 | Report Abuse
Gooshit ,you made call to sell , while penta was priced at 2.80,yealling your papa and mama, to justified, now 4.78, you got no shame one, retarded moron. did you papa and mama ever told you different stock at different circumstances behaves differently. Not everyman with beard is you father, not every woman with skirt is your mama., right???
2019-11-09 18:07 | Report Abuse
Investor9999's approach may be more reasonable, and he based the valuation on the past performance, but some people are seeing the future, which is totally different from the past, that is made possible by the trade war between US and China,and US consumers are sourcing new origins of supply.vietnam ,thailand ,and malaysia are said to be benefited
2019-11-09 17:53 | Report Abuse
@unicorn ,you talk cocks.nobody in the world 100% sure what will happen next, or confidence about what is going to happen , we are not God himself., gooshit is just providing shit and nothing else. and you are just the same kind like Gooshit.
2019-11-09 15:00 | Report Abuse
no body believe this Goosai,due to current period of uncertainty , it is psychologically disturbing.
2019-11-08 23:45 | Report Abuse
don't be silly , gooshit knows nothing about US market,"roll back tariffs " is fake news, so what , US economy still strong , and stock will stay high. Gooshit is just a know- nothing- moron.
2019-11-08 18:16 | Report Abuse
klcpo today settled 2605 per tonne for february.delivery up 50 ringgit. not bad.
2019-11-08 17:02 | Report Abuse
Gooshit ,you are just a clown,showing extreme stupidity,and giving much entertainment to many investors.
2019-11-08 14:17 | Report Abuse
Gooshit ,you are just a clown,showing extreme stupidity,and giving entertainment to investors.
2019-11-08 12:21 | Report Abuse
我想简单地介绍一下背景,我们之前和当前的状况。我们在过去两年经历了熊市,熊市超过两年之后,我们这时候就有点危险了,因为他们会形成一个非常强大的低价的基础,低价值积蓄了大量的需求,这一轮的上涨确实是来自于强有力的基本面因素。它确实结合了产量降低、消费升高两方面的因素,同时我们也不得不问,因为这种现象,看全球的市场当中,大部分的大宗商品如果经历了长期的熊市之后好像大家都走到了熊市的尽头,所以马上我们就要问,是不是整个世界的大宗商品价格都将进入普涨的阶段呢?我觉得我要回答这个问题,应该在2020年的时候我们在吉隆坡的价格展望大会上可能更好地回答。
现在讲到棕榈油前景,2018年是在马来西亚这个棕榈油都是丰收,马来西亚生产1950万吨,印尼产量为4200万吨,棕榈油的产量比2017年足足增加了500万吨,2019年就没有那么好运了,最新的产量预测,当然其他有几家也在报告,马来西亚是2030万吨,印尼我倒觉得是在这个区间的低端,只有4300万吨,去年是4200万吨,也就是说2019年印尼他说好惨,我们只是增产了100万吨,但事实上在这样的情况下,我觉得我们现在这一个价格上涨是有扎实的基本面支撑的。
总的来说2019年世界棕榈油的产量只会最多增产不超过200万吨,马来西亚因为它的树龄比较老,因为2018年高产而面临压力,它要休息,它就会进入小年,大概5到8月的小的状态。低价格和高产量的后果就是小农户他们就可以减少化肥使用,特别是2018年8月开始减少化肥用量,2019年出现了干旱。不光是在马来西亚,主要发生在印尼,干旱比较严重。
2018年7月开始,马来西亚的棕榈油迎来高产周期,这个周期的时间比分析师包括我本人预测的还要长,知道2019年8月高产期才结束,它是持续了13个月,非常不寻常,但9月份的产量让人大失所望,这就说明棕榈树的高产周期终于结束了。实际上在马来西亚8、9和10月的产量几乎完全持平,如果产量连续3个月持平的话,它就是一个平台期。这个平台期是一个不好的迹象,预兆了未来6到9个月产量低迷。现在出现了新的一轮低产的阶段了,主要有生物学上的高产周期和低产周期。为什么会进入低产期?因为干旱天气加上化肥用量减少或归零。
再看印尼,印尼在棕榈油生产的问题比马来西亚还要严重,首先今年的化肥使用大量减少,甚至有些人根本不施肥了,所以基本上他们是一轮一轮施肥的,一般是一轮、两轮、有时候三轮,小农户根本买不起化肥,然后又出现了干旱,2019年上半年出现干旱,8月下旬又出现干旱,而且降雨量一直没有跟上来,实际上印尼大部分都会说今年不会出现产量的峰值,一直会保持在一个平台上。
在苏门答腊和加里曼丹部分地区2019年的降雨量甚至低于2015年,从11月开始我们预计我们的产量将会出现连续的同比下降。目前我对于2019年印尼棕榈油的产量我是非常谨慎的,我觉得最多增产只有100万吨,达不到100万吨我觉得也是合理的。
我预计2020年马来西亚的产量将低于2019年。我之前的预计是2020年上半年产量减少100万吨,下半年保持不变。所以,2020年马来西亚的产量可能仅为1930-1950万。印尼我最初预测是4400万吨,只会比2019年增加100万吨。2019年上半年化肥用量减少或归零,加上2019年干燥的气候和新增种植面积减少,产量将仅增加100万吨,增产将仅出现在2020年下半年。
我给大家讲了棕榈油库存,马来西亚的库存比较可靠,印尼的库存量不太可靠,我们想看一下12月的期末库存和2019年12月的库存相比,2018年的12月库存是321.5万吨,2019年12月我们预计是250万吨左右,如果我们走运的话。市场正在告诉你,市场已经做好准备了,把价格也算进去了,它早就预算好了期末库存会大幅减少。
我们再看需求,印尼有一条B30法令,这个是完全会让行业改观的法规,所有现在对于怀疑B30的声音都被打消了,B30受到追捧,B20有了这样的成功,B20宣布以来大获成功,今年印尼已经进入B22,已经超过了B20了。而B30也就是1月2月开始就要强制执行,不执行还要罚款。对于CPO他的需求量会直接增加250万吨。
全球的生物柴油的需求,2019年约有4600万吨植物油用于生产生物柴油,将近1700万吨棕榈用于生产PME,巴西的生物柴油法规将从2019年的B11扩大到2023年的B15。
棕榈油不是说价格是不是高,而是说会不会太高?印度是一个进口国,我去问了非洲的国家和亚洲的国家,孟加拉国他们几百万人需要棕榈油,他们需要用棕榈油满足营养需求,棕榈价格按照我们的预测上升的话,印尼怎么能够对他出口税自圆其说呢?印尼有没有自我纠错机制来延缓或减少B30的影响呢?如果价格因为B30快速上涨,印尼有没有相应的措施呢?
再讲一下葵花籽油和另外一个油种。我们已经有5年的黑海地区丰收的记录了,连续丰收5年葵花籽油极具竞争力,所以葵花籽油在世界上有很好的竞争力,中国的葵花籽油市场也在扩大。葵花籽油在当前的价格来说,2020年第二季度的价格,目前来说非常便宜,有点太便宜了。油菜籽的产量在2019年欧洲产量是有所下降,油菜籽油是如何出口和压榨量?油菜籽油还是会大幅高于豆油和葵花籽油的价格,不管有多少的障碍,油菜籽油还是会大量进口到欧洲。
而中国成为了2019年棕榈油进口的一个耀眼的明星,2020年将继续增长。大商所最早发现了棕榈油的机会,你们最早发现价格低估的机会,棕榈油的价值,没错,它不是由马来西亚决定,不是印尼的交易商决定,它的价格是被中国的交易所所决定的,压榨量会少,也会减少对油菜籽和菜籽油的进口量,棕榈油仍然有很好的机会,中国的生物柴油需求很大。
中国在2020年可能不会进口棕榈油生物柴油,原因是价格不具竞争力。但是,食品和工业需求将推动棕榈油进口增加,棕榈和葵花籽油将取代豆油。
其实讲到大豆和豆油。我们看到美国的数据,美国提出了大豆的减少到4亿多蒲式耳,我觉得没有那么多,以前是10亿蒲式耳,现在减少到4亿蒲式耳,这就说明了要么美国农场主决定不再种大豆,市场来解决了他这个问题。不管在北美,大豆目前来说我几乎是完全的确信今年南美洲的产量是能够有所增加的。
豆油的库存在我看来,它有可能会进一步收紧,也就是说如果混调商的信用在美国得到支持的话,这就有可能会得到减少,有一个美国参议员说,他希望我们能够通过法案给混调商提供信贷优惠,但是我不太相信。因为美国的参议员一般他要做正确的事情,首先把坏事做尽了再做好事,最终来说混调商的信贷条件还可能会提高。这样巴西今年的大豆出口会减少,阿根廷现在是处于危机,大家都知道阿根廷的农民肯定是不愿意卖给压榨商。而大豆油的进口需求,不管是印度和中国,豆油进口需求都激增,现在豆油比棕榈油来说更具竞争力,毫无疑问现在阿根廷中小企业一定会撑起出口的重任。所以我看来大豆油,不管它会收紧还是放宽,2020年这个豆油是稍微比较紧张的。
印度的进口量。给大家看这一张PPT,就是希望跟大家讲清楚,2012、2013年的进口量,最后一列是2019、2020年的进口量,可以看到是豆油和葵花籽油。由于马来西亚和印度的出口税比较高,所以这个变化不大。但是现在这个出口税解决了,虽然豆油和葵花籽油相比棕榈油来说是比较少见的,所以印度需要油的话,棕榈油就是唯一的途径了,所以从今年2019年开始棕榈油会继续扩大它在印度的份额。2019年里面可以看到棕榈油会达到1000万吨的大关,明年很容易会破这个关口。由于印度现在的降雨和风暴,严重影响了印度的大豆收成,但是它的收成会很好,由于世界豆粕需求疲软,可能导致印度压榨量减少,印度有大量没有经过压榨的库存会增加,印度的人均消费会增加,明年2020年印度经济和增速很可能会增长,印度政府采取了很好的措施来刺激增长。
现在我们来看看世界能源需求和供给的增加。看看需求方,世界能源需求量大概是每年增加300万吨,也包括生物柴油,2018到2019年度能源需求会增加400万吨,部分是由于生物柴油的要求,印尼的法定柴油量30%,这就意味着额外820万吨的量,所以2019到2020年度世界需求将继续增加,增加幅度不是300万吨,而是400万吨,因为印尼全面实施B30生物柴油的使用标准,所以2019年会达到700万吨。
这是世界植物油供应量的增加,我期待大豆在2020年会增加1000万吨,我唯一有信心的就是葵花籽油,葵花籽油我把它的方法到另外一张纸,我有信心相信他有百分之百的增加,其他都是我的估计,马来西亚会下降,印尼会增加,可能最后的结果跟我们想的不一样,我们可以看到世界经济供应总量在增加,增加350万吨,但是需求会增加700万吨,这和去年的情况是一样的,正好还有2017、2018年的存量,这个存量就抵消了供需的需求。2019年没有这么多的需求怎么办?现在的市场已经供不应求了。
2020年3月开始,世界植物油库存将大幅减少,将导致价格上涨。我们是不是要将食用油用于生产燃料,很多地方都吃不起食用油,比如说印度和非洲,导致数百万人吃不起食用油。我的价格展望的决策是布伦特原油价格为每桶60-80美元,美联储实施宽松的货币政策。2020年世界GDP增速稍微放缓,美国会出现一定程度的政治动荡,假设美元会逐步走弱。我还没有考虑到任何需求方面的变化。由于新的燃油IMO规定,不会带来变化,我把它叫做IMO2020。
那个时候吉隆坡将召开棕榈油大会,我也觉得产量会减少,需求会增加这两点是共同的趋势。食用油需求从棕榈油转向软油的空间不大。2020年豆油和葵花籽油的产量将在2019年的基础上略有增加。所以,必须通过提高价格来配合给中国和欧洲的生物柴油需求。这个做法就是通过价格提高的方式来做。中国的进口生物燃料,生柴价格会提高,所以中国可能不会再去进口了。那么这一个安全网,我们来看看欧洲能够做出多少的替代。
软油方面,葵花籽油的卖家非常激进,葵花籽油目前很有竞争力,葵花籽油必须适时实现对豆油的高溢价。具体溢价将取决于中国的进口量以及伊朗和印度的胃口,
最后我来总结一下我的结论。首先非常感谢广州对我的热情接待,最后我要祝贺大家!你们开启了这个盛会!中国的需求推动了食用油价格的提高。
本轮价格的上涨始于大商所。我不知道印度人听了会不会高兴,但是印尼和马来西亚听了肯定会高兴。但是价格不要太高,价格虽然对于种植户有利,但是价格会抑制需求,一个好的市场,如果太过乐观反而会乐极生悲。我们要警示。
印尼要负起责任,把自己生物柴油的配比调下来,如果你把市场破坏了,要想再去获得这个市场是非常困难的,所以我们一定不要破坏这个市场。也希望华盛顿特区的人要意识到这一点,市场不容你破坏,如果你破坏这个市场,如果你破坏和中国的市场关系的话,我在美国,在伊利诺斯州有朋友,一旦破坏这个市场,这个修复是非常困难的。我的演讲结束了。谢谢大家!
2019-11-08 12:08 | Report Abuse
indo govt said ,will implement mandatary B30 by january 2020.
2019-11-08 10:20 | Report Abuse
if cpo can price at 2800, sop would fly to the sky.
2019-11-08 10:19 | Report Abuse
true, if the management run the business like najib-1mdb, everything is negative.
2019-11-08 10:17 | Report Abuse
theorectically it is under valued.no doubt about it.
2019-11-07 15:56 | Report Abuse
@ ahfad , the india threat is just came from indian business sector , not from indian government, more over ,people also know, dr.m is just talking nonsense, and he is just a transitional figure;anyway,rsawit is not well managed
2019-11-07 10:38 | Report Abuse
if klcpo can break 2600 , basis, february delivery, then next month 2700 is reachable, as production usually is the lowest in the last quarter of the year.at this time seen strong break upward.
2019-11-06 15:43 | Report Abuse
industrial sourse said Indonesian biodiesel domestic consumption is seen to rise from 6.2m kiloliters to 9.4m-9.6m kiloliters,EU bio-diesel is only about 1.6-2 million tonnes.
2019-11-06 12:05 | Report Abuse
汉堡10月29日消息:行业刊物《油世界》称,2020公历年棕榈油供应紧张速度可能比预期更为严重。报告称,棕榈油产量增长速度将会显著放慢。经过过去8个季度的显著增长后,2019年10月到12月期间全球产量增幅可能放慢至只有20万吨。此外,印尼政府近来将运输行业的生物燃料掺混率上调到30%,马来西亚将生物燃料掺混率上调到20%,如果该政策得到实施,全球棕榈油供应将会异常紧张。
2019-11-04 17:12 | Report Abuse
not to worry,it will. all signals point north.
2019-11-04 14:57 | Report Abuse
cpo price moved up 50 ringgit in mid-day, 2525 rm per tonnes for near months, as compares to early of the year, fetched only 2000 per tonnes.
2019-11-04 10:16 | Report Abuse
Palmoil price outlook
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/233433.jsp
2019-11-04 08:51 | Report Abuse
you forget subtract the free warrent offered.
2019-11-03 18:09 | Report Abuse
if palm oil price touches 2.700 per tonnes, sop stock price would reach 3.00 -4.00 rm, or even beyond, currently is rock bottom good price to enter. moreover with on going trade war,less import of soyabean/oil , china is experiencing rampant inflation, coupled with recession ,most chinese consumers would go for cheaper palm oil .
2019-11-01 13:56 | Report Abuse
communists are all liars
2019-11-01 11:39 | Report Abuse
geary , you think you are smarter the hongkong people who witnessed in depth and continue to witness, every single thing happened in China,and many of them actually ran out from china,decades ago. brain washed, you must be talking about yourself, who know nothing about china, except from the surface.
2019-10-31 18:50 | Report Abuse
hongkong people know exactly what is going on in china , so they risk their lives to defence old system , and reject strongly , to be intergrated into greater china communist facist totally corrupt system.
2019-10-31 18:43 | Report Abuse
you are wrong, you only see the surface,without going into the detail. america built china by allowing china products to sell in american market freely. for the last 30 years, Now ended by president Trump, so you see massive problems came to the surface in china, like massive unemployment, property market crashed, foreign reserve dried up,all the so called billianaire are fake, and delusion ;these groups mainly corrupt officials and people in property sector. now property clashed in china, all those wealth are worthless, just ghost cities , large wealth are on papers only, banks are bankrupt ,people in general can't afford even to buy pork for family consumption.Government just print paper money , soon will be like , Venezuala, with massive run away inflation.
2019-10-31 16:32 | Report Abuse
don't be silly, china must removed communism otherwise see no future. china culture contained too much metaphysics, and needed to throw away , modern time needs to be more scientific.
2019-10-31 16:13 | Report Abuse
communists had destroyed all original chinese ethics and culture, now all are communist wolves, just look at hongkong ,see how the police brutally, and barbarically treat the young kids.
2019-10-31 15:31 | Report Abuse
US government wants to delist all communist china companies listed in American bursa citing the fact that they all are cheating investors.
2019-10-31 15:14 | Report Abuse
Gooshit can't afford to pay 2.80 for Penta,months ago, wanted to chase at 5.00, you must be joking. Penta is not hengyuan,hengyuan is not Penta, don't mixed up.hengyuan has huge debt in their book,and the company run by communist.
2019-10-31 12:25 | Report Abuse
dumb,dumb gooshit is just sour grapes, he is repeating those word , when the price was 2.90., shameless, enormously thick skin.
2019-10-30 21:09 | Report Abuse
palm oil price has climb to reasonable profitable level, the future quarterly reports will show that, the worse time looks finally over.
2019-10-30 15:49 | Report Abuse
whenever Gooshit said sell, sell, you better do the opposite, may rise.
2019-10-29 23:47 | Report Abuse
"cry for mama,or baba," this is what gooshit used to do, silly low IQ idiot,a lying creature.
Blog: South Korean, Chinese students face off over Hong Kong protests
2019-11-16 15:53 | Report Abuse
south koreans must kick out all communists,chinese or other nationals,communism is evil.