As of now, invoking the law seems to allow Selangor Gov to take over management only, without needing to acquire assets.
If asset acquiring is NOT involved, then its not a good news.
If asset takeover somehow bundled in later, then it good news.
It seems more of no asset takeover as of now.
I think anyone not invested in Puncak don't get in.
Anyone invested should take profit/loss.
Sold mine ~3.08 when the 1st take over was spurned in early Dec.
Was early on the boat before election.
Btw, there is a puncak-ca. Buy if its less than 5 cents if want to punt.
Good Luck guys.

Hi Mr Koon,
I bought Jaya Tiasa way back in 2006. Bought as timber was among the last commodity to go up after iron ore, crude oil and palm oil.
Had relied on International Tropical Timber Organization newsletter to monitor log prices in Japan & Sarawak (so that i would know the price before it being published by any brokerage houses). Bought it because log & plywood prices was beginning to creep up, & around Sarawak State Election in which Sarawak counters tend to rally.
JT was selling for RM3.2 per share (before the year or 2 ago split/rights issue). I sold it for ~RM3.8 and netted me my 1st 10k from the market.
I did notice that in their annual report at that time, of them owning 80k hectares of land (plantable ~70k hectares). They were planting at the rate of almost 10k hectares per year back then. No other Malaysian company that i know of were planting at this aggressive rate.
However, I also noticed that JT should be producing more plywood and logs as compared to Ta Ann. But JT always makes lesser profit as compared to Ta Ann.
Also there were lots of related party transactions in JT operations.
Also, JT's annual profit is volatile as i can recall at that time.
That is the main reason i sold in 2007/8 ( can't recall exact year).
Only just before its rights issue, did the profit perked up and then it fell back after that.
Also, a year or two back, there was this occurrence of large quantities of logs to got out of log ponds up stream that flowed into the sea.
But it was not reported the logs were from which listed timber company.
None of the listed timber companies (that i know of, but i never did an exhaustive search) booked the loses.
Plus (with apology) who knows exactly how much timber that is really extracted in the jungle ?
That doesn't help when JT's annual profit was not consistent at that time. Never really checked JT recent quarterly announcement.
But if JT's profit is more stable, plus dividend then only its stock price will go up.
Also, isn't it that there is just to much additional acreage being added by plantings from 2006/7 ? Each year there would be more acreage added in Indonesia ?
Also, Sarawak land is mostly peat land ? It is less fertile ? Is this the reason (aside from transportation) why Sarawak land is the last to be developed into palm oil estates ? Sabah shares the same problem of transportation, but IOI chose Sabah as its land is fertile and hence a lower cost producer ?

Jerry, My current job requires me to be in front of the notebook screen 90% of the day.
The only different is that, i am not required to be ready in front of the notebook by 9am.

Hng33, okies. Let me check Public Mutual.
Philip Capital and UOB Kay hian have postings for traders in Jobstreet currently. Have submitted it online. Hopefully i get it ;)

Hng33, Thanks. Let me read more of the blog and gauge for myself ppl's experience and path taken.
Thanks !

Hng33, heheh.. thanks. Am thinking of joining as a trader with any bank willing to take me. Wanting to meet ppl as I am 33, still too young to retire.

May the best price to be with u ;)

hng33,
I am getting the hang of it. I can feel its doable. I started making money since 2009. Proton was my 1st big break. Was able to get about 2 years of my annual income. But had to hold on from 2009-2012.
Then made about a year of my annual salary through Puncak ( end 2012 - Now).

Not sure if its luck.. ahaha..

Okay Sir. Have read bits and bits.. u were doing some unit trust thingy and then boughts lots of GAB .. I was looking at it in 2002.Read that in surf88.com those days. That attracted me into fundamantel based investment. Those days still in uni. No $$.
Let me check the website again.
Btw, I am an Engineer. But rather interested in trading. Am thinking if i can do this too.

** off topic on ytl power **
Hng33, U are doing this by profession.. meaning investing full time ?
Can strike out on own ? How much minimum capital needed ?

Lots of thing to consider
1) What are the merits of combining YTL and YTLPower. If the answer is yes. Then no need go through 2 & 3.
2) Need to consider YTL Power earnings, balancesheet and most important asset quality. Their broadband business is a drag. The rest are great. 1 Bestarinet can turn around broadband ? If yes, YTL Power is still great.
3) If dividend yield to continue outperform future FD rates and with earning increment, then not a problem too.

Just having a thought.
What if Yeoh family disposed of big blocks a few months back to a friendly party.
Then by pushing up the YTLPOWER BHD using SBB. Then the friendly party can offload the warrants at a higher price.
'No announcement' needed by now.
Long shot, say YTL Warrant is expected to be worthless as they have some reason to believe YTL Power is worth less than RM1.22.
Its like turning 0 cents to 60 cents. This would make more sense than the gain on conversion ?

yong: no one will know for sure. Thats why i never try to sell and buy back later. Nor do i buy when it gaps up.

The last gap up, was from around 2.39 -> 2.6+ -> 2.8+/2.9 in 2 days.
I can only guess that the market maker had planned to push it up to get ppl to buy around 2.7-2.8. The could have planned to push it down regardless of broader market being up. They want ppl sell back at cheaper price. So, don't buy when it gaps up.
They are not afraid if someone sells them the shares at 2.8 when it gaps up, only if they are of opinion that it is worth more.
So, both ways ( selling to them or buying from them ) will be okay for them.
But doesn't mean that market maker will win all the time. They will lose if the deal doesn't go through.

So, I am of opinion that ppl need to know fundamentals, knows macro economics -Dow, politics and try to read market makers mind. Only with this that u can have a better guess in buying before it moves.

If Dow is down in immediate future, they can assume there will be less buyers, and they can push down until they think someone will buy from them at a cheap price.

If the deal is for sure to go thru, their constraint is time.

Lots of bullshit here, but i can never answer for sure. No one can too. Its a best attempt from me to guess based on logic. It could still be wrong.

Before election thoughts :
If market maker holds lots of Puncak shares. Market maker is likely to push it up. Before election market maker can still sell story of Puncak going up if BN wins. After election, and BN loses market maker cannot use this excuse and have to wait 5 years to use this reason again. Market maker will not waste this window.

After election :
BN lost Selangor. Major shareholder no longer has incentive to wait another 5 years. Granted, Selangor Government does not want to sit on status quo. No water capacity added for 5 years. If water capacity start today, will need 2-3 years for new water capacity.

So, both sides have incentive to talk.
Seller will want to close deal before Umno election. Seller has bargaining power before Umno election.
Also seller might be able to negotiate for good assets to be bought after disposal of water assets.

Just an opinion by reading newspapers and trying to figure out the possible scenarios. No one knows for sure. One can only attempt to make a calculated guess.

I am not suggesting Puncak is no hope. I am keeping mine, not gonna sell unless Khalid says the deal is off. I am stressing the point of don't chase when its up.

Support for kudakilat. Ppl, if u look at price moving upwards and buy, then its a casino. If u care about its profit, asset, and what the company wants to do next, then its investing. What you say about being an investor and speculator doesn't change your actions. Your actions defines if u are an investor or speculator. Don't think being a speculator is smart unless you have millions to move the market.

*in

hn33 is doing a service to the society with a neutral and honest opinion.
Ppl can only do so much to provide a guide with current information.
No one is 100% sure of the outcome, including Khalid or PM.
Short term movement is due to market maker's moves.
I will also be affected by the price movement.
But pls do remember, value (or valueless) will prevail.
No one noticed that 2.6 - 2.8 run up was in a space if 15 mins.
Go figure. I don't know too.

Jul 5, 2013 11:16 AM - 2.60/2.61 already
Jul 5, 2013 11:27 AM - wow this tren 2.70...
Jul 5, 2013 11:29 AM - already RM 2.80

aside from doing math calculation to derive intrinsic value as hng33 mentioned, no one would knows unless your have lots of cash and lots of Puncak shares.

I am never good at selling to get a good price.
Anyone from accouting background who would not mind sparing some thoughts ?
Lets have some good luck and be thankful if this thing goes through in a good way.

NRW & tariff hike is a chicken and egg thing. Selangor State Government has the upper hand now. Else, tariff would would have been hiked.
Come to think of it Puncak is a 1 billion company trying to do a 5 billion ringgit business.

actually, I am not counting on Puncak getting any money from the court battles. If Syabas is able to get tariff hikes as according to the contracts, then I will want to keep Syabas and not sell it. Puncak will turn into a very profitable utility company.
But as in this political environment, had BN won, consumers (read voters) will not be burdened by water tariff hikes. Puncak may be compensated through subsidies.
So, BN Selangor old plan is about dead and buried.

Its how much for selling water business, and what they can get from O&G matters.

Need to omit the below statement then,
Wrong statement.
In Puncak case, it is because Puncak takes into account the increased water tariff but unlikely to result in collection of the money. * unless water treatment business is able to get money in full from Syabas. So, PE is skewed from actual money collection.

I understand low PE, impending water restructuring and O & G entry is the trade in Puncak. In fact, I own puncak shares. I am banking on all 3 items above for price to move up.

But for 'education purposes', need to point out that a company trades at a low PE is usually due to a ugly balance sheet or the earnings is not sustainable due to non-continuance of current business or even extreme low growth without support of dividend. *but low growth does not justify a PE=3, usually PE=5/8.

In Puncak case, it is because Puncak takes into account the increased water tariff but unlikely to result in collection of the money. * unless water treatment business is able to get money in full from Syabas. So, PE is skewed from actual money collection.

But all in all, I think we have a trade in Puncak.

Disclaimer : not a advise to buy or sell. Just sharing some thoughts. Need to build up knowledge. Need someone to verify my logics.

warrants ex price = RM 1
warrants ratio = 1 warrants for every 10 shares

ex-warrant price =[(current outstanding/(current outstanding + warrants) ]* RM 1.8639 + [exercise price/ total enlarged shares]
*take current shares as 1, the enlarged shares of 10% must be 1.1

Hence; Theoretical ex-warrant price : [(1/1.1)*RM1.8639] + [ (0.1)/1.1 ] = RM1.785

hng33: Thanks.
ex-warrants should read as like ex-dividend. The volume weighted average price for the past 5 days up to 28th June is at RM1.8639. ex-warrant price after taking into warrant received and its dilution effects, RM1.8639 is adjusted to RM1.7854 (just like adjustment after dividend is received).
Logical math to derive RM1.7854 : [(current outstanding/(current outstanding + warrants) ]* RM 1.8639 , but it does not yield RM1.78 ??
A premium of 12% is accorded to the ex-warrant price would derive RM2.
ex-warrant price is used as a reference for pricing sukuk conversion as both issuance of warrants and sukuk is linked, and also current price is used as both pieces of information of sukuk and warrant is furnished in completion as of today.

Warrant should be trading at ~ RM 0.8 + premium determined by market = ~RM0.9 to RM1.00 if puncak share price is RM1.8 to RM1.9 when warrants starts trading.

Exercise price is at RM1 (u get only 1 warrant for every 10 shares) can be found in bursa announcement of Puncak's circular.

Issuing warrants without management intelligent actions does not increase value of the company. Hence its just like slicing your shares to more units, but summed back to the same value.

If management does good business decisions, puncak's value goes up & current shareholders is provided with advantage by the free warrants over future puncak shareholders *so this is just the advantage we got when warrants granting news is provided.

Hi hng33, Puncak recently adopted new financial standards. Both sets of financial report diffs substantially especially on its balance sheet. Applying both balance sheets will result in very diff outcomes especially on the fair value evaluation. I think the dilution effect is limited to 10-20% of the value. We need to know which balance sheet is a better representation of Puncak's financials and thus better in estimating its fair value if the takeover of its water assets goes through. I only have 'common sense' skill in reading a financial report. Have u taken consideration of the new financial standards adoption in the fair value calculation of RM6.92?