this counter so so slow in moving up.

seem the company earning back on track. Great result during period of uncertainties

never up and keep in consolidation, sell on news? i think the trend is coming now for construction theme play, lets see current and coming week how kerjaya and gamuda perform

yes, largest ever contract

ACCEPTANCE OF LETTER OF AWARD AMOUNTING TO RINGGIT MALAYSIA SEVEN HUNDRED TEN MILLION EIGHTY THOUSAND (RM710,080,000.00) FROM NIKMAT MERPATI SDN. BHD

source: https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/1667337.jsp

Tee added, amid the challenging environment caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the group has managed to secure RM907.6 million worth of contracts so far this year.

"We are confident of continuing to win more contracts for the rest of the year and achieve our internal order book replenishment target of RM1 billion for the year 2021.

So does it mean that in coming months to come, there are at least project worth 100 million due to announce soon ? if yes , hope the market is favourable for the construction industry

Fuyoh, new project on hand again

Kerjaya Prospek secures RM258m job for building works in Johor

Source : https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/kerjaya-prospek-secures-rm258m-job-building-works-johor

did you factor in the dividend payout over the period ? The company may found their optimum cash flow at this level while those excess cash used as dividend distribution ? Just curious and might need to check in detail.

keep dropping even no bad news. Hopefully it will stabilise soon

When the boss is buying in own share, and with FCPO future is at 3,919.00 for Feb 21, and 3,618.00 for March 21, strong believe that the price setback is just temporary.

Sigh, quite a huge drop compare to the CPO future. I am accumulating more and treat it as the opportunity for bigger gain.

It is coming again to challenge the new high. Target to break thru and may break RM1.70 before the dividend ex-date!! Gogogo.

Beside, lately spotted 2 gems, one is petgas and amway. May discuss in the respective group.

added PetGas with average price of RM16.98 for my portfolio. Right now, it is about 50% of the portfolio

Trader808, great sharing. Indeed it happen all the time for those stock with many call warrant, like tnb, takaful etc. So trader808 hypothesis could be correct, and if we able to trade it factor in the risk, the reward could be very good for short period of time.

Malacca Security latest analysis:

我们重申“买入”评级，目标价从1.74令吉上调至1.91令吉，相等于明财年16倍本益比；一般中型种植股的本益比介于14.5倍至17.5倍。

Malacca Security reiterate buy call , target price revised from RM1.74 to RM1.91 with target PE of 16. The PE range for mid cap plantation should be within PE range 14.5 to 17.5.

Source: https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%A1%8C%E5%AE%B6%E8%AE%BA%E8%82%A1/%E3%80%90%E8%A1%8C%E5%AE%B6%E8%AE%BA%E8%82%A1%E8%A7%86%E9%A2%91%E3%80%91%E9%94%A6%E9%9A%86%E8%B5%84%E6%BA%90-%E4%B8%A4%E5%B9%B4%E8%B4%A2%E6%B5%8B%E4%B8%8A%E8%B0%83

agree with trader808. the expected annualize EPS will be within 12cents to 13cents, as the high CPO price is offset by the huge fall of FFP and CPO output. Considering high CPO price, good dividend payout and prudent management, based on historical PE, i believe it deserve fair PE between 15 - 18, using forecasted annualize EPS 12.5

PE 15x = RM1.88
PE 16x = RM2.00
PE 17x = RM2.13
PE 18x = RM2.25

With consistent dividend payment for this fiscal year , (4 cents + 3 cents + 3 cents (forecast) ), i believe it is could be sustain PE of 15x or 16x.

too bad. My estimation seem too optimistic, but overall the performance is still impressive. Sigh, got to improve on prediction.

Hope that today the company will release quarter result to see if it match my estimation. Seem a bit late for this quarter

@ooihk899, yupe.i agree but so far they did consume and use back their own FFB, so there will be some consolidation in between. In fact, what i try to trying to put here is actually as a remarks to see how close my expectation versus the reality.

Oya.. thanks newbie2y for pointing out it is the biogas than solar that in return earn some 6 million in revenue.

No problem. We share, learn and earn together.

for the OER, it is one of the best and above the national industry average.

In fact, check on quarter release on september, there are few key metrics that lead to the believe that coming quarter will be flying color one.

Page 8 of the quarter report, its CPO production (MT) is 82,260 with average selling price of RM2336. (for May, June, July).

However, the CPO production for (August, Sept ,and Oct ) = 24,610 + 25,254 +25,633 = 75947, which is about 8% drop from the May, June, July.

Source from MPOC suggest that the average of May, June, July = RM2335, which is as per listed in Kimloong Quarter release. So we use the same benchmark for August, Sept and Oct , it is RM2906.

For the CPO itself, for May, June , July (RM'000), it is 192,159 revenue, while for August, Sep, Oct (RM'000) is estimate of 220,702. This is about 15% increase of revenue on the CPO part only. So i believe the revenue increase for coming quarter will be +-3% of 15%.

So to make assumption of the breakeven cost of CPO with other income remain constant,

Revenue from milling = 231,651, profit = 32,042, so it is about 14%, backward tracing, we assume that the cost of milling per mt = RM2000

If the assumption is correct, mean coming quarter profit will be very impressive as RM2900 - RM2000 = Nett RM900 extra profit per mt CPO.

Well , if that's the case and other things remain constants, possible it's eps to be around 9 -11 eps

As i do this calculation in rush and might make wrong assumption, so reader to analyze yourself. If any mistake, appreciate the feedback and will make revision. I am still learning in investment.. cheers!

MPOC source: http://mpoc.org.my/monthly-palm-oil-trade-statistics-2020/

@trader808, few points that you may have missed.

1. Plantation land acquisition that expected will increase total FFB and CPO production yield by 10%, which in progress to settle soon.
2. The contribution from the solar in mill that contribute additional income, which i think will increase and achieve better cost saving and revenue.

1Q EPS : 2.45
2Q EPS : 3.55
3Q EPS : between 4 - 5 (Forecast) (Factor in high CPO, but not post acquisition)
4Q EPS : between 4 - 5 (Forecast) (Factor in high CPO, but not post acquisition)

At the low side , total EPS for 4Q maybe 2.45+3.55+4.00+4.00 = 14 cents.
At the high side , total EPS for 4Q can be 2.45+3.55+5.00+5.00 = 16 cents.

Assuming the FAIR PE for KMLOONG is 15 due to its excellence yield and nett cash position and using low side EPS = it should worth RM2.10

Fair PE : 15 , EPS 14 cents, Price = RM2.10
Fair PE : 15 , EPS 16 cents, Price = RM2.40

Do not forget, it also has the nett cash position of about RM0.33 per share (at this moment, but i could be wrong). (Total share: 933,607,000, Current asset (Mostly cash , inventory and receivable): 398,679,000 , Current liability : 94,094,000 )

Formula : (current asset - current liability)/ Total share


Information from latest quarter release:
The Acquisitions are expected to be completed by the end of the year 2020 and management forecasts the FFB production for the financial year ending 31 January 2021 to be about 10% higher than the quantity achieved in the financial year 2020 after taking into consideration of the impending completion of the recent acquisition of landbank and the impact of ongoing replanting programme.

The management expects the milling operations to achieve 10% higher processing quantity as
compared to the financial year 2020. The performance of the milling operations will also be
supplemented by revenue of about RM6 million from supplying power to grid.

Based on past year records, the production of Fresh Fruit Bunches (“FFB”) from our mature estates is normally low during the second quarter of each year and will rise in the third quarter, peak in the fourth quarter and then slowly decline in the first quarter of the following year.

However, the Group’s FFB production for the current quarter had increased by 7,900 MT or 11% to 79,600 MT as compared to the preceding quarter. The increase in production was mainly on the
account of continual peak crop season started in the preceding quarter in the Group’s mature estates in Sabah where about 75% of the Group’s plantations are located.

Not a buy/sell call, but just to share more informed information.

Dec 2020 fcpo move to new high, time to break the new high and move all the way to RM2.00 ? Gogogog!!

come on, please break the new high and fly high as much possible.

@101st_airborne, you may still keep for a while. Myself only bet is KMLOONG, so i unload 20%, then rest of it wait for the pullback next week. I believe it can break into RM1.60 by early next week, and consolidate a while before it move higher.

@101st_airborne, i strongly believe it will > RM1.6x based on the current momentum and volume (Weekly volume is the top compare past 3 years). It's first resistance will be RM1.53 and i believe it can break it today. Then it will try to challenge the next resistance of RM1.6x.

There are few major catalyst, increase dividend payout soon, acquisition of palm oil estate complete soon that will contribute 10% more FFB, and ongoing strong demand for CPO due to bad weather, soybean oil surge and crude oil surge, plus coming fantastic quarter report release by Dec.

Just be patient and collect the gems.

Wow, FCPO jump above RM3500.

Tomorrow shall see the break through the resistance of RM1.53 and move forward. Based on today weekly chart, it is perfect. Weekly MACD golden cross, High volume, and Stochastic crossing up.

The time is here for Kimloong. GoGoGo.

source: https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices?code=FCPO

yes , the timing is just nice , RM1.52 now.. Gogogog

fasten the seatbelt and enjoy the Kimloong ride. Hope to see it break new record high soon.

Based on Kimloong Weekly chart, RSI in the comfortable area of 50+, and Stochastic %k blue crossing up, with expected highest weekly volume this week, predicted it will go north and break the new high of RM1.62 by or before the next quarter report announcement. Beside that , fundamental wise, it is believe that management will improve on dividend payout and the announce the completion of the land acquisition. Let's ride on the strong trend.

I am only holding Kimloong at the moment and i believe it is my best bet.

Hopely wont offence others will those wording like believe, expected, predicted.. haha

Nope. Only Kimloong so far the best, for other like United plantation and Jtiasa , still trying to understand the stock pattern..

Heavy bet into Kimloong upcoming result and solid financial stand.

Accidentally deleted previous post

For windfall to charge, CPO price > RM2500 for west Malaysia , and > RM3000 for East Malaysia

FFB / MT as per 6 Nov = RM727
CPO / MT as per 6 Nov = RM3424

source: https://www.enanyang.my/node/365388

engine started and FCPO keep recording new high.

Gogogogo, go momentum, and shall break the first barrier by monday .!!

CPO > RM2900,this counter still like no action.. sigh..... poor kimloong

Finally the counter move with good quarter result release soon in Sept.

the volume for kmloong is so so low. Even with the good financial result coming soon, it still cannot attract interest from investor. phew.

GoGo hope can break RM1.50 today. CPO is extremely bullish at the moment.

the engine started. With favorable CPO price , other revenue (power source), enlarged land bank that contribute 10% more on total FFB , good utilization of mill plant, prudent management, this company is set to soar in FY 2021

Go Go go break the RM5 and move forward

Also regarding RHB bancatakaful, seem no news from RHB side, will they choose to continue with takaful instead? if yes, then it will be the good news for takaful too

fantastic QR result.. Bravo!!

buy buy buy !!

Quarter report is aligned to release together with the holding company , BIMB , as revert by the IR department when people email. This quarter release may change to next month if BIMB quarter release is next month.

@techapp, i think anything from bimb will not really benefit takaful as bimb only as controlling shareholder for takaful. Cross check with ALLIANZ , MNRB, LPI price trend for past 4 weeks, it is showing same kind of price recovery, so believe it is sector wise price movement, possible due to upbeat recovery of covid , less vehicle insurance claims due to MCO etc. Lets see if the trend can continue , but ultimately, the MCO create more awareness and the need for insurance , which long term is a positive factor for th industry

it won't be up daily, sometime a pull back is needed.

bullrun2021, are you able to justify a lot of assets charges under FVTPL in equities? Based on the latest share price movement, i think it might due to the possibility that RHB might continue the banca takaful deal with STMB, because the share price recovering even with the huge disposal of EPF in open market. interesting !

1. This is truth, but then you can see that the amway marketing plan at least can sustain. Competition is fierce , but AMWAY brand name and reputation also strong.

2. Agree. But what is the payout ratio ? to pay more to agent, it mean more scarification on either OPEX or the product costing. Other can give more , likely in binary or trinary, matrix plan because of no future consideration on sustainable business model.

3. In order to pay dividend, need to analyze from the cash flow statement part . profit down does not mean company generate less cash for dividend. It is somehow related , but not exactly. Many company in paper lost, but still able to give good dividend due to strong cash flow, particularly from cash flow generated from the operation.

Well finally, share price may up and down due to sentiment, but eventually it will track on company financial performance for long run, which if Amway not able to generate more profit and keep it MLM market share, the share price will be keeping in depress mode until there is big turnaround happen.

something bad in brewing ? why cant it just release the qr early like normal practice ? something fishy ?

Based on 1Q EPS improve 39% YoY, if it can maintained the growth, the expected EPS for coming quarter shall be between 2.4 cents.

1Q 2018 = 2.2 cents
2Q 2018 = 2.4 cents (Forecasted with 40% EPS growth YoY)
3Q 2018 = 2.4 cents (Forecasted with 40% EPS growth YoY)
4Q 2018 = 2.0 cents (Forecasted with 80% EPS growth YoY, because historical it is the best quarter, but extremely bad for 4Q 2017 due to high management cost and claim ratio )

if TUNEPRO able to achieve above, and we maintain PE of 13 for the stock , it will be 9 cents * 13 = RM1.17 conservatively.

Dividend policy is at 50% of EPS, so next year target of Dividend will 4.5 cents to 5 cents range will EPS as predicted.

Let's see how TUNEPRO perform for the next quarter

finally, after the long wait .... :) .

@Jeffreyteck , it is higher management fee, possible due to the newly onboard CEO , chief actuary and fintech background VP. In fact, if more talent is joining the company with commendable financial performance, then it is still acceptable. but right now it fail with certain key area:

1. Lousy customer service that unable to support the new and existing customer.
2. very stupid mobile apps, that unable to attract users, and worst, no sign of improvement so far.
3. The claim ratio is high for motor insurance and in fierce competition, and yet the group is focus in this segment.
4. There are more that the group is failed to enlighten the investor, especially those empty promises, there is a huge different between empty promises and feel optimistic. unfortunately tunepro seem fall under the empty promises side