But the impact of higher fuel gas costs is unexpected. Among PGB four businesses, only Utilities have non pass-through input gas cost. Utilities gross profit has reduced substantially by over 70% YoY, from RM75m to RM22m.
Gross profits have also declined across three other businesses. But according to Hong Leong analyst, "PGB will be able to recoup back the higher fuel cast costs for its Transportation and Regasification segments in subsequent period"
Looking further ahead, need to watch out whether earnings will be reduced under RP2 (Regulatory Period 2) which runs from 2023 to 2025.
this stock ah if u see carefully the revenue kept increasing over and over the years but the share price kept dropping and dropping, so can u see the disconnection between the share price and the fundamental??
KUALA LUMPUR (June 9): Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is allocating about RM60 billion for capital expenditure (capex) in financial year ending Dec 31, 2022 (FY22) compared with RM30.5 billion a year earlier as the Malaysian national oil company prepares for the resumption of business activities, which were earlier disrupted by Covid-19-driven movement restrictions, and as the group sets aside money for clean energy or non-hydrocarbon-related ventures. "This year, we expect to almost double that [capex] amount which is RM60 billion, because of catch-up and the return of [business] activities. This is also the time we have to make inroads in some material steps into the non-hydrocarbon side of things," Petronas chief financial officer Liza Mustapha said on Thursday (June 9) at the MIDF Conversations event, which was held virtually. MIDF group managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani was the moderator for the event. Liza said that out of Petronas' planned RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22, about RM40 billion has been earmarked for the oil and gas business besides non-hydrocarbon–related operations while the balance of the capex allocation has been earmarked to finance Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd's (PetChem) wholly-owned subsidiary Petronas Chemicals International B.V. (PCIBV) proposed acquisition of the entire stake in Sweden-based specialty chemicals group Perstorp Holding AB for €1.54 billion (about RM7.02 billion) from Financiere Foret S.A.R.L. Petronas owns a 64.35% stake in PetChem, according to PetChem's latest annual report. Looking ahead, Liza said non-hydrocarbon-related income is expected to account for about 30% of Petronas' revenue. "[About] 30% of our revenue should be coming from something which is not related to hydrocarbons. "We have to factor in [business] growth, otherwise, we will not be able to manage the energy transition and we will miss our target of achieving [net] zero [carbon] emissions by 2050," she said. According to her, about 10% of Petronas' RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22 will be earmarked for non-traditional businesses such as specialty chemicals and solar energy. "Previously, I think there was never a plan on what rate it should be [for the clean energy segment] because there was no allocation from the top. So, it didn't really take off. "So, we need to rethink our decision on the capital allocation [for the clean energy segment] and put it aside, because if we leave it at that and let them go with the flow, we are going to be a year behind the target again," she said. Petronas' financials improved in 1QFY22. In a statement on May 31, 2022, Petronas said profit after tax rose to RM23.44 billion in 1QFY22 from RM9.22 billion a year earlier while revenue climbed to RM78.75 billion from RM52.55 billion. "Despite favourable [first quarter] performance, the high oil and gas prices are expected to remain vulnerable with increased volatility due to geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainties. "Petronas will continue to strengthen our operational excellence to maximise value creation whilst intensifying our growth and sustainability agenda in Malaysia and internationally,” the company said.
price should LU n gauged demand when regasification facility (converting liquefied natural gas to natural gas) in Melaka commenced after September '22.
RGTSU (Regasification Terminal Sungai Udang) is known as the world's first-of-its-kind regasification unit on an island jetty, according to PetGas.
Tommorrow once the Donbast referendum being passed, then Russia will annexed those 4 Donbast regions from Ukraine, then will start war between Russia and Europe, then oil price will spike up to above USD $120 again !
Then all the O & G counters will spike up to sky high especially Petgas's price will break above RM25.00
KEY POINTS * OPEC and non-OPEC producers, a group often referred to as OPEC+, will meet in Vienna, Austria on Wednesday to decide on the next phase of production policy. * The oil cartel and its allies are considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, according to OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters. * "The OPEC ministers are not going to come to Austria for the first time in two years to do nothing. So there's going to be a cut of some historic kind," said Dan Pickering, CIO of Pickering Energy Partners.
A White House statement following the OPEC+ decision to defy the Biden administration with an output cut for November vows to find new ways to temper OPEC’s control over energy prices. Earlier on Wednesday, members of OPEC+ said they would cut November production quotas by 2 million bpd, citing the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks”. The decision immediately led to a more than 2% increase in Brent crude and WTI prices and goes directly against the Biden administration’s attempts to lobby Saudi Arabia for higher production to bring prices down. Shortly after the release of an OPEC+ press release detailing the output cuts, the White House said, “In light of today's action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC's control over energy prices.”
Petronas Gas Bhd’s (PetGas) defensive earnings capabilities remain an attractive investment theme with analysts, while the opportunity to supply gas to new clients offer growth moving into 2023.
The company’s gas processing business’ earnings will largely sustain into quarters ahead protected by existing long-term contracts with PETRONAS while the gas transportation and regasification segments long term prospects are protected under the regulated asset base structure.
HLIB Research, however warned PetGas’ short term earnings remain affected by higher internal gas consumption and increasing fuel price before possibly recovering in the subsequent review period for RP2 (2023-2025).
The research house maintained its “hold” call on the counter with a TP of RM17.85.
“While we expect PetGas to continue maintaining its dividend payout given its high current net cash position of 89 sen per share, we expect earnings to remain affected by the increasing fuel costs in the near term, on top of the Prosperity Tax impact for the year as well as uncertainty on new tariff structure under RP2 2023-2025,” it said.
Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), Eni SpA and Euglena Co Ltd are jointly studying the possibility of developing and operating a biorefinery in the Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC).
The biorefinery is also expected to have the capability to process about 650,000 tonnes per year of raw materials to produce up to 12,500 barrels per day of biofuels.
The biorefinery is expected to have a flexible configuration to maximise the production of sustainable aviation fuel for aircraft as well as hydrogenated vegetable oil for on-road vehicles, diesel-powered trains, and marine transportation
The raw materials to be used will not compete with those in the food chain such as used vegetable oils, animal fats, waste from the processing of vegetable oils, and other biomass including microalgae oils to be explored in the mid term
PUTRAJAYA (Dec 23): The government has decided to reduce tariff for gas facility charges for the regasification terminal owned by Pengerang LNG (Two) Sdn Bhd and gas distribution pipeline owned by Petronas Gas Bhd between Jan 1, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the first year under the Second Regulatory Period (RP2).
RP2 should be good for Petronas, however if you take forex impact and gas price into consideration, it's not really lucrative to invest in Petgas right now. For a risk-averse investor however, Petgas should be a good defensive stocks as dividend yield is still high, though lower than its peers. Special dividend might come up in March, as they are increasing its gearing level.
Like typical utilities, PetGas business is capital intensive. It's annual capex in recent year is about RM1.2 billion. In the latest quarter, capital commitment is RM5 billion.
In PetGas regulated business (transportation and regassification), Energy Commission calculates the allowed return based on certain assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The figure is not disclosed. But it's probably close to Tenaga's WACC of 7.3% under RP3.
Let's assume cost of debt (CoD) is 5%, and cost of equity (COE) is 9%. Let's further assume PetGas increases net debt to equity ratio to 50%. Its WACC will be (0.5*5% + 1.0*9%) / (0.5 + 1.0) = 7.7%.
With a net debt to equity ratio of 50%, PetGas can still comfortably run its business and earn the same return as today because its operating cash flow is very stable. PetGas can then return its the excess cash (made available through increased borrowings) to shareholders. Shareholders can invest the extra cash elsewhere to earn more return.
But PetGas has chosen to remain in net cash position. It runs its business based entirely on the more expensive shareholder's capital (9% in our example), wherease the EC only allows it to earn returns based on lower rate (about 7+%).
Obviously PetGas management plays it very safe. But it means shareholders earn subpar return.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
unicornbird
103 posts
Posted by unicornbird > 2022-05-20 08:50 | Report Abuse
observatory what do you think of the recent quarter?