Sm...so hardcore me...

Philip wife got 100m supermax haven sell ? Then she really can bear super fruit like bear child.philip already sold tg she haven sold supermx.no wonder philip so angry. Everynite she count supermax profit then philip very lonely?

Our 30 yrs legend might b stanley himself...dun underestimate anyone.

But at least 400 mil is acchievable if not by this qtr,next qtr can get.

If super max at 8.00 make 400 mil profit.market cap only 10bil..tg at 16 make 350 m, market cap 42 bil.. Ib can rerate already or not.

July is here...n stay alert ..if result is to be anouced in july...insider movement will starts by next wk. If annouce in aug. Start after 2nd to 3rd wk. U will roughly know the profit of supermax.

If result is 400mil as per 30yrs legend. The price shld be above 10 in 2 wks time.
Lets hope it comes true.

charlest...dun say like that...he is the legendary 30 yrs in ...jail...sorry ...glove master.

yfhew1...400 m= 30sen + 9 sen = 39 sen = rm16.00

202023...good insight. i am very happy they giv us a chance to buy glove stock while cheap for being consevative in the first place. i can only say covid development is fast enuff to catch most anlayst by surprise. if not they wont use so many tactics to bring down the share price so that they can jump in after they rebalance their portfolio. they would hav cut majority of their portfolio b4 9 jun collapse. and busy collecting glove stock thereafter.

20202023..thanks for your support..but wat will happen between 2020 - 2023 ?

@freetospeak I guess your TP RM16 is too conservative as you counts estimate PAT of Q4 & Q1 only. Normally, TP derives from 4 rolling quarters earning estimate. In this case seems like zero PAT for Q2 & Q3.

Based on your projection the appropriate TP should be double @ RM32 !!!
30/06/2020 1:13 PM


20202023... i think ppl will say i too optimistic ...so only take 2 qtr lo...ppl will say high asp will not sustain lah..so i only take 2 qtr lo...

all the ib show exceptionally low projection(except for uob )for supermax becoz they haven buy enuff. they purposely understate so that they can buy in more b4 it fly high.
u think they dunno the huge earning potential for supermax when even with limited info , i also can come up with much higher earning than them. bak in h1n1 flu virus.supermax is one of the top pick among all glove counter becoz of obm. but when come to covid. not many covered deeply. u know why.

pang72 sifu..long time no c..!!!!

Charlest sifu ...sama sama...jus curious where is the link for alien attack on supermax factory...lol

All supermax glove in us majority gone into gomen agency hands n hospital for stockpiling...not much on retailer side already. There are many pirated gloves on website selling fake fda certified gloves. Reputated obm distributor is the reliable channel now. So only trust the obm distributor of major glove producer for reliable price.

According to supermax analyst report. Oem weitage will decrease from 30 to 5%. This additional 25% is about 100mil sales (400m/4). Lets assume it will be free up for majority spot trade n obm sales.
The precovid oem price is 23usd.
The price for april to jun spot n obm price is 150 to usd190.
About 6 x increase.
100m x5= 500mx0.7 = 350 m pat.

The above is only the oem convert to obm portion which commnads the highest growth.
Lets assume the 300m remaining sales to hav 50% increase in sales due to asp increase.
150m x0.7 = 100 M PAT

TOTAL = 450 M PAT

IF 20% increase in sales volume due to max out production.
450 x1.2=540 mil pat.

Eps for qtr 4 = 40sen
Eps for qtr1 = 40sen
2 qtr eps already =80 sen
Pe 20 = 16.00

TIME FOR SOME OPTIMISTIC PROJECTION.

today supermax kena play until spoiled already...lol

july result gonna out ma...now dun buy ..when buy...

in a few wks time, Supermax pe will drop below 30 if still stay at rm7.00.So logically , how can big 4 glove counter pe be so low at present moment when COVId is still incresaing n ASP is still increasing. Even KOSSAN PE also hav 40+.

effective 30 jun...

but after QTR 4 result...they will know The true value of supermax.

only supermax n TG is more than 2 x increase in margin..shows that even IB knows their profit is very high n current valuation is fair.

Thanks newplayer286 for posting.

Previously, Maybank has capped the share margin valuation for
Hartalega at RM8.97, Top Glove at RM9.41, Kossan at RM7.87, Supermax at RM3.38 and Comfort Gloves at RM2.29.

Comfort @ RM2.29 -> RM3.42
Harta @ RM8.97 -> RM10.52
Kossan @ RM7.87 -> RM7.87
Ruberex @ -> RM2.21
Supermx @ RM3.38 -> RM7.41
Topglov @ RM9.41 -> RM18.00

Posted by Newplayer286 > Jun 29, 2020 1:58 PM | Report Abuse
*Maybank IB Share Margin Valuation (Latest Revision)*
_The ceiling price for rubber gloves counters effective 30th June 2020_

Comfort @ RM3.42
Harta @ RM10.52
Kossan @ RM7.87
Ruberex @ RM2.21
Supermx @ RM7.41
Topglov @ RM18.00

**_The valuation will be based on the ceiling price or last closing price, whichever lower._

*Maybank up margin valuation of gloves counter* !!! ☝️

Seems OTB sifu very confident FY 2021, PAT should be at least RM 1.2 billion.
Tp 22.38...then is my dream comes true...lol

Posted by OTB > Jun 29, 2020 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by yfhew1 > Jun 29, 2020 12:18 PM | Report Abuse

Its 280million to 360million profit.
------------------

Good news to me.
FY 2021, PAT should be at least RM 1.2 billion.
EPS = 1200/1360 = 0.88
PER = 15, the target price = 13.23
PER = 20, the target price = 17.60
Any of aforesaid PER, we are laughing all the way to the bank.

If Covid-19 lasts for 3 years, please read the below link.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-06-29-story-h15...

Most brokers in town use PER = 26, the target price = 22.88.

Thank you.

for those who hav missed comment by OTB sifu:

OTB Dato Seri Stanley Tai had been informed to expedite Q4 2020 results of Supermx to be released in July 2020.

The management of Topglov can release its Q3 2020 results in 11 days, I hope the good management of Supermx can be as good or even better than Topglov to release its Q4 2020 results earlier in July 2020.

I strongly believe Q4 2020 results of Supermx will be very good, this will help to enhance the share price of Supermx to rise further.

You must have high confidence on the excellent Q4 2020 results of Supermx.

I hope the good management of Supermx will not disappoint you.
The excellent Q4 2020 results of Supermx will be out in about a month.
Can you wait for a month to win big ?

I believe Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 results of Supermx will be super good.

Forget about the rumour of windfall tax and vaccine.
WHO will not believe there is a vaccine to be out in 2020.
Rumour of windfall tax and vaccine are faked news in this Supermx forum.

The government of Malaysia will give all glove manufacturers a special pioneer status of 15 years if they continue to invest in Malaysia.
I read this news in Malaysia many times, I never know any news to have windfall tax on glove manufacturers.
Thank you.
27/06/2020 8:46 PM

Dynasty...very boring ma..so come here talk kok...lol

if u think the asp now is high...wait til us goes into fall with millions of spreader base. the asp will likely be more than doubled of now. South America , India ,Africa all already lost control becoz they are too poor. the virus will spread faster than the vaccine can be available.

When malaysia export will hit limit in june. The shortage will get serious in July onwards as more explosive numbers of vrius infection makes buyer keep increasing price for spot order. Super forcaster estimate worldwide 168 million infections in 2021. now is jus the beginning.

https://time.com/5848271/superforecasters-covid-19/
https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1398

thats why so many rubber glove company want to dispose their factory.if so good why they wan dispose. only the best can run a glove fatory with profits. those newcomer who took over the old n inefficient glove company will be in time bomb.

china production is for domestic demand. their export had no market.
When in good asp time ,they can make profit. in poor asp time all these glove company will go bust as usual for the past 30 yrs which left the few big company like the big four.

Anyway supermax got obm they can always compete with china players in price. They can never win obm with huge margin in internatinal market with long term customers.

Malaysia is also fighting for manufacturing investment like glove industry with other country.if they wan to attract more ppl to invest or continue to invest here like the big 4.they shld provide incentive instead like the pioneer status.becoz now glove is hot more company might be interested to invest in malaysia due to the strategic location. In that perpective, the gomen will not impose tax.intead they would provid even more incentive to propel the industry to stay in competition.of course, may b the gomen prefer to kill it becoz they need money.

A windfall tax only earned peanuts for gomen for short term becoz total glove sector profit is so small. Why would they do that while other country never impose tax on their glove company.somemore they give incentive to attract glove company to build factory there like thailand.rest assured tg n other glove company will move new plant to thailand if gomen do that.

世卫组织计划2021年底前提供20亿剂新冠疫苗

当地时间26日，世界卫生组织召开新冠肺炎例行发布会时宣布，世卫组织计划明年年底前提供20亿剂疫苗。世卫组织首席科学家苏米娅·斯瓦米纳坦表示，目前中国至少有四种候选疫苗正从二期临床试验进入三期临床试验，世卫组织已与多个中国疫苗研发团队就进一步合作展开讨论。

信息来源：人民日报海外版

WHO plans to provide 2 billion doses of new crown vaccine by the end of 2021 On the 26th local time, the World Health Organization announced at a regular press conference on new coronary pneumonia that WHO plans to provide 2 billion doses of vaccine by the end of next year. The chief scientist of WHO, Sumiya Swaminathan, said that at least four candidate vaccines in China are entering phase III clinical trials from phase II clinical trials. WHO has further cooperated with several Chinese vaccine R&D teams open discussion. Source: People's Daily Overseas Edition

I tot vaccine gonna be available by august in my nearby clinic?

https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/getting-a-grip-on-malaysias-rubber-glove-industry/

Fot those who interested why malaysia can export 60% of world wide glove market.

Dear OTB sifu,

Thanks for your clarification and help.
Really helpful to those newbie n weak minded.

Dear OTB sifu,

I am not sure whether they got our message coz no reply from them as of now.
I think u r in better position n status to contact them instead.
Hope any resourceful sifu here can help too.
Thank you very much.

i already said sc replied me 2 wks ago they will annouce in due course. If wait til last minute then annouce most likely is extend becoz it wont affect the market. It is very disastrous to annouce last minute if they want to lift the idss. hope no one sold becoz of idss.

jus let the fundamental result speak for the price. the rest are just noise. we shld focus on the next qtr result to reflect the price.

If they want to predict future, we can also say wat if no vaccine, virus gonna last forever. then asp wil not come down. then bumper profit will be around for very long time.

30 mil qtr profit price is 1.80
70 mil qtr profit price is 4.50
100 mil qtr profit price is 7.00
200 mil qtr profit price is 13.50

if the result is very good n it is cheap ppl will buy. simple as that.

at current price...the market is valuing supermax qtr4 100 million profit. those who beleive qtr 4 profit is higher will buy or stay. those who think its lesser will sell.

To buy at 4.88 is possible if qtr 4 result is 80 million or lesser.
this is quite impossible coz mar profit alone is already 40 million.
so even maintaining mar profit for 3 mth will be at least 120 m.

TG current price already priced in its latest qtr result so its stagnant now. the nex qtr is too far away.

The next move will come from harta and supermax.
If both can deliver good result then both hav room to rise becoz the market does not know the result now.
If harta can deliver same or better result to TG. then harta will rise to same price as tg.
Same goes to supermax.if its can deliver very good profit like 200 m n above. then the market will be surprised n move up accordingly.

So now is the void period. All the big result are still unknown to market. so patience is required. but u can c impatient uninformed share had been slowly eaten up by the patient informed ones.

sunshine99...my 1st clculation bak in may after the analyst report by supermax...is already 200-400 milliion. But i chosen the 200 million one to be conservative.

With the latest development , asp price will further rise after jun when malaysia glove export will hit max ceiling . coincide with rapid spread of covid n the nitemarish fall coming flu season.That is when all the big 4 hav further power to raise asp again.

sunshine99..this is us data ...now us carry about than 50%-60% of total capacity. Brazil asp is also 2-3x higher compared to qtr 3 according to my source. Canada also 3x asp higher. As for others it shld be mroe or less the same.

wah..dynasty u also come with numbers liao.

Supermax Healthcare Inc import

QTR 3 1380 ton
QTR 4 2484 ton (upto jun15)( about 2x)

ASP for qtr 4 (US$ 120-150, spot rate as high as USD190) (at least 2x vs qtr 3)

profit at least 4x of qtr 3.

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-healthcare-inc

u only need a few time to show immunity to dow jone movement...glove stock will get herd imunity against the covid market crash .

probably no idss..glove rally continue...

I wrote to ask sc about idss..they say will annouce in due course. When they wait til last mintute then annouce,most probably is extended. Unlikely,will wait til 30 jun say tomlow on 1st july idss will be reinstalled.

mytwocents...my info is supermax distributor retail price x4 n it is higher becoz malaysia side raise price.

thanks to whoever provide me the info too...lol...anyway do your own research n double check. If confirm pls share.

World wide fund n indexes are shifting more funds into healthcare sector...this is a permanent structural shift. This is very important and will affect mid to long term price. So jus hav fun with short term volatility n ride the way up.

https://isp.netscape.com/pf/story/0002/20200620/KBN23Q2UK_3

Wall Street Week Ahead: London index reshuffle to give healthcare stocks a bigger profile

When the 1918 flu pandemic hit the United States, the first wave of infections occurred in March. A second and more lethal wave followed in October, when most of the deaths from the disease occurred.

Eerily similar?