Past facts n figures are all there to see...but most people still want to cheat n create conspiracy theories. Future of course nobody can predict the outcomes!
No need to troll here, if TopGlove is lousy, then find a good counter n invest loh...n see what the future hold for u...very simple...but many make it so... difficult...!!!

TopGlove IPO was #2.70...after 20 years, at present 1,000 units, equivalent to #576.00.
Go n do your own analysis n find yourself such counter lah...n invest loh...!!!...Or u have the foresight to predict... TopGlove will be #45.00...after 5 years...then it's worth to invest at #4.70...Now...???
U do your own calculated risk n reward to decide for yourself.. !!!
Mind u nobody point a gun at u to invest n hold...!!!

https://youtu.be/4N385vKhXYQ
Devil in Disguise!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q9R7ac0B9w0&feature=share

pjseow Two days ago , i did a projections for earnings in. FY 2022 , 2023 and FY 2024 based on projected expanded capacity and eroded ASPs , I derived the followings earnings and EPS.
FY 2023 8000 millions EPS 84 .2 sen
FY 2023 5306 millions EPS 55.9 sen
FY 2024 3766 millions EPS 39.6 sen

Assuming FY 2024 is in stabilised state where demand and supply is in.equilibrium and ASP also at stabilised state, what is the PE multiple to be given to the EPS of 39.6 sen ? The average historical PE of pre pandemic FY 2015 to FY 2019 was 27 . Should a PE of 27 be given to topglove since Topglove in.2024 will be a much stronger company with 3x.capacity.and huge net.cash ? If we assign.a conservative PE of 20 , its price.will be RM 7.92 . If we assign a PE of 23 , its price will be rm 9.11 . If we assign.a PE of 27, its price will be 10.69. i did not add.back the dividend ot earning per share of 2021, 2022 snd 2023 yet which is expected to be more thsn 1.50 even if we discount them to present value. I welome any comment.
22/03/2021 8:37 AM

TQ for all the data n reasoning...but we never know the actual future earnings...just like many here Invested the past few years. They didn't know this year has such supernormal profits n dividends. Stay invested n add on weakness...good luck...!!!

geary ANITA GABRIEL
JUN 28, 2016 11:30 AM
TOP Glove, the world's largest glove maker, opened at S$1.62 on the maiden day of its secondary listing on Singapore Exchange (SGX) on Tuesday.

HKEX listing will have the same earnings growth prospects...as in SGX listed since Jun '16...5Yrs:#540%/#108%{YOY}. Return On Invested Capital.

Disclaimer: Just do your homework n decide what u want to invest, Mr. Market will decide your destiny...with all those noises. Investing is an Arts, it's your own temperament, that decides your failure or success...Mind U...2001 listed in Bursa...was much more higher risks, than SGX 2016 n HKEX 2021...Now...All three listed shares are dual or identical n fungible...!!!

pjseow Today , comfort.has released its latest qtr result with 12 x yoy and 1.5 x qoq earnings. The section which draw my intention is on.the section on future prospects。The latexx gloves exhibited strong demand which is consistent with what Topglove see. The ASPs continue to go up for these cheaper latexx gloves. The demand could have come from those countries with lower per capita. Topglove still has a big chunk of latexx glove capacity and its leadtime is still high at 240 days indicating.strong demand. Last year the strong demand comes from mainly Nitrile gloves .Now these companies are seeing. strong demand from the cheaper latexx gloves. These higher ASP s from latexx gloves may mitigate the gradual drop in ASP.s for nitrile gloves next and subsequent year.

Yup... Biodegradable Natural Rubber Latexx Glove...!!!

Stockisnotfun Kyy say one not my report. Gloves demand not matter how will reduce after covid ended. Or you wish covid never ended? Just the matter how much the demand will drop or capacity expansion soon will reach a break even with surging demand.

The increase cases of Europe is within expectation. Fighting with pandemic might take years.

Covid19 will end or don't end, nobody knows, it's humanity causes n effects, everywhere humans, n even cats n dogs also Kena Covid19. Everyone suffers in certain degrees more or less. It happened we invested in gloves, then it's history.
Even without Covid19, top 4 gloves also have #15/20% sales n earnings growth. Good dividends n bonuses, why uncle kyy, never noticed it n invested the past ten years at least.
For younger generation, I hope they learn from mistakes n invest correctly.
Those who want to swing trades also can, but u will earn kopi money only, that's your own temperament, n u might miss a wonderful business to invest.
Always learn from others n your own mistakes, n be a better investor.
Good luck...!!!

beginner new ESOS 75,300 at 6.55 and boss also keeps on buying back, this is strong hint the price will eventually back to 6.55 above. logic thinking the company will reward the employees with esos. is just matter of time only and i have the time to wait for this to come, along the way just happily collect the good divvy
15/03/2021 6:43 PM

Patience I say many times, even though Hartalega earned more than TopGlove, the past ten years, the latter still paid more dividends n bonuses. How about the next 2/3 years of supernormal profits...how LWC going to reward our faithful Investors n also their employees...Just Sit down n Wait...!!!

Stockisnotfun This can only mean that there are more investors who believe the share price will not go up again because the demand for gloves is reducing due the reduction of new Covid 19 cases. The Americans have been the largest buyers of medical gloves. Since the number of new Covid 19 cases is reducing the requirement of medical glove is also reducing every day.

Moreover, all the glove manufacturers have been expanding their production capacities and there are many more new manufacturers. Even Mah Seng, a property developer also has ventured to make gloves.

In fact, besides Top Glove shareholders, all other glove stock shareholders should be in a dilemma.

Are you in dilemma? If not please persuade kyy to buy gloves again.

If Uncle KYY knew how to invest in gloves, any top 4, he is a billionaire by now...No need to keep on searching to goreng here n there...wasting time n energy. He should enjoy life by now...Aiyoo...!!!

elbrutus geary bro ...u can say that again
15/03/2021 6:26 PM

Just invest n hold it...unless TopGlove don't care for minority shareholders. No need to read all that don't benefit u...stay on course...n believe your own data n reasoning... good luck to u.

Dividendplayer Begging ? Beg to who ? Beg from anonymous stranger on Internet can get money or what. Desperate? How will posting here save us if trapped ? Just like all your negative posts did very little judging by the retail buying volume today.
15/03/2021 6:12 PM

Don't worry be happy...time will show u the way...even those bought above #9.00...Patience will be rewarded handsomely...!!!

elbrutus geary bro ...most of those negative ppl so free no kuku play ma ...so come here to make many posts earning 0.50 per post ....how sad but never mind ...they deserved it somehow ...hahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Oh! I see it now...they are paid...0.50 for it...they know it...but still want to do... that's the mistakes become 3X...ʘ‿ʘ

geary pjseow Coolbull, you can google in both Chinese and English . On you golden.rule of reciprocasy, I learned 500 years after Confucious that a Saint said 凡已所欲 皆施於人 which means " Do unto others what you wish others do unto you ". If these two sayings are practised by human race, the world will be peaceful .
15/03/2021 5:47 PM

Unfortunately many aren't... because of too much greed n hatred...plus ignorant. The truth is impossible to speak nowadays. Those who are most cunning will be very famous n rule the world...those who are following the rules...will be banish into deep caves...!!!

More n more mutated bacterias n viruses are created by humanity immoral mind.

pjseow Coolbull, you can google in both Chinese and English . On you golden.rule of reciprocasy, I learned 500 years after Confucious that a Saint said 凡已所欲 皆施於人 which means " Do unto others what you wish others do unto you ". If these two sayings are practised by human race, the world will be peaceful .
15/03/2021 5:47 PM

Unfortunately many aren't... because of too much greed n hatred...plus ignorant. The truth is impossible to speak nowadays. Those who are most cunning will be very famous n rule the world...those who are following the rules...will be banish into deep caves...!!!

pjseow Investmalaysia8, Topglove is not only world number 1 in.capacity only. It is world number one in revenues, profits and number of customers world wide. It supplies 25 % of world gloves demand for many years. It is true that Topglove mfg lines are not as automated as Harta because Harta was a late comer compared with Harta. With the huge earnings ,Topglove is committed to improve its mfg lines with state of the.art automated equipments in the next few years to be on.par or better than Harta. Topglove glove selling prices are higher than Harta is a fact. Harta is still doing the catch up. You can confirm by readind the IB comments in.their reports.
pjseow Investmalaysia8, Topglove is not only world number 1 in.capacity only. It is world number one in revenues, profits and number of customers world wide. It supplies 25 % of world gloves demand for many years. It is true that Topglove mfg lines are not as automated as Harta because Harta was a late comer compared with Harta. With the huge earnings ,Topglove is committed to improve its mfg lines with state of the.art automated equipments in the next few years to be on.par or better than Harta. Topglove glove selling prices are higher than Harta is a fact. Harta is still doing the catch up. You can confirm by readind the IB comments in.their reports.

Past ten years, Hartalega was better, still good at present...but the next ten years...TopGlove will be better...trust your instincts n LWC...!!!

pjseow Investmalaysia8. Imagine you like.Toyota car but you go to Honda forum where peoples are promoting Honda. You keep pouring cold water on.Honda cars saying all the negative things about Honda car like too expensive lah, lousy factories lah , etc and try to promote Toyota car in.Honda forum. What will the Honda supporters do to you ? Learn some very basic ethic 。Do not do unto others what you do not wish others do unto you as.what Confucious says.
已所勿欲 勿施於人。

Hahaha...｡◕‿◕｡

geary FELI1305 @beginner , this counter is keep for long term onnly can see result right ? i also top up 5.19 this morning.. 100 lot only la..

to get much dividend for april ma ..

Retirement Portfolio...those who bought Mar, '20...@6.00...already...#150% Return On Invested Capital...plus those who bought higher price...should believe their own analysis... those noises from the crowds must not bother u. Stay invested on weakness...good luck!

Just hold as long as u can...take your dividends every quarters...plus probably bonus issue every 2/3 years...or maybe more... because of TopGlove supernormal profits for at least 2/3 years. Be Patience...!!!

pjseow Investment8, I am talking about IPO . Topglove IPO is 2001 whereas Harta IPO is 2008. By the way, I never talk bad about Harta unlike you keep talking bad about Topglove in.Topglove forum. I have my right to support Topglove in.topglove forum . If you support Harta, go ahead to support Harta in.Harta forum. I will not be like you talking bad about Harta in Harta forum just because you like Harta. As I said.before, I also bought Harta and I felt Harta was.unfairly beaten down by shorties from the high.of rm 20.00 to 9.00 using the unsubstaintiated claims that demand will go down, price war , pandemic.will be over, share price will go back to pre pandemic etc.

@pjseow...salute to u...u have done your best...others want to buy or sell not important...as long u have extra cash just invest... good luck.

FELI1305 @beginner , this counter is keep for long term onnly can see result right ? i also top up 5.19 this morning.. 100 lot only la..

to get much dividend for april ma ..

Retirement Portfolio...those who bought Mar, '20...@6.00...already...#150% Return On Invested Capital...plus those who bought higher price...should believe their own analysis... those noises from the crowds must not bother u. Stay invested on weakness...good luck!

"This, i yet to factor in "what if Top Glove maintain at around RM4.50 - 5.50 for the next 3 years and won't drop any further".

Actually for the past years, TopGlove is around present market valuation, unless there are dividend plus especially bonus/split issue. Happy investing, u will sleep well, if u know what u are doing, those crowds noises, doesn't matter u at all...｡◕‿◕｡

AdCool I started to buy in at rm6.90, then rm6, then rm5.30 and i am waiting for rm4.80 if any. Then my average would be around RM5.75. If Top Glove drop to 3.50, i will withdraw my Isinar and buy even more to average down below Rm5. next, i will just keep and hold and receive dividend. given Top Glove could reduce 70% of its current dividend payout in 2023/2024 due to lower ASP, conservatively that would be around RM300 per year. For a 4% return, the share price should worth RM7.50. Alas, since the market doesnt value such a way, personally as long as I manage to keep anything within the range of RM4-5, that would be 6-7.5% dividend return per year. Dont forget I would have received rm2000++ dividends from 2021 - 2023 per share. As long as Top Glove doesnt drop further below RM3. I would have breakeven by then and subsequent dividends would be net profit to me. This, i yet to factor in "what if Top Glove maintain at around RM4.50 - 5.50 for the next 3 years and won't drop any further? Then my dividend of 2000++ would be net profit while the subsequent dividends would continue to add on to my profit. This is why I said now Top Glove is a dividend play. not goreng goreng. that would be bonus if it happens

Value Growth Investor...Wise guy... probably your return on investment...around...#110%, YOY...average #5 years Invested period... that's dividends plus bonuses...Just trust your own gut n judgement... good luck to u...!!!

pjseow Albukhary , thanks for the sharing . Supermx was the first company which collected deposit last.year when the leadtime was stretched to more than 9 months. Supermx had repeatedly stated in their financial reports that the high ASP was not relected yet in. current qtr result. The best is yet to come. When you buy a house at a certain price and you sign an agreement knowing fully.well it will be delivered 3 years later, you cannot ask the developer to reduce the price when the market price drop 3 years later . Likewise, when you buy a car.with a leadtime of 6 months . the car seller cannot increase the price after 6 months when the.car is delivered even if the price has increase. I do not know why.none of the IB s mention this lags when many glove makers had stated the long leadtimes of 12 to 18 months last year. and assume that when the price drop it will affect the.earnings immediately.

#18 months is the right timeframe, less margin of error...above that all nonsense analysis...big margin of error...!!!

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 26, 2015 11:49 PM | Report Abuse
The 4R,
"The biggest challenge for long-term investor is to find d Right business with d Right Understanding run by d Right People n selling at d Right Price! So in d long run u can sleep well n live longer. No need to look out for good or bad news. No news n stock quotation is even better bcz u r free from worry caused by others mistakes of judgement. D important point is to have a portfolio, like u don't have any portfolio!, because u sold some of your holdings when d price increased #>100%. U took back all your capital! So value n growth are joined at d hip, it is called value growth investing. Be Wise, n average up on weakness."
Past #<15 years of Pandemic n Endemic:
1.H5N1 Bird Flu (1997)
2. Nipah (1998)
3. SARS (2002)
4. H1N1** (2009)
5. MERS***(2012)
6. H7N9 Bird Flu (2013)
7. EBOLA*(2014)
8. 2019-nCoV2* (2020)
9. NCoV3***???*(2024)

>TOPGLOV=Retirement Portfolio®<
'Probably the best Return On Invested Capital, among its peers, and all companies in Bursa".

Disclaimer: Do your homework n decide for yourself.

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Mar 2, 2021 3:27 PM | Report Abuse

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 26, 2015 11:49 PM | Report Abuse
The 4R,
"The biggest challenge for long-term investor is to find d Right business with d Right Understanding run by d Right People n selling at d Right Price! So in d long run u can sleep well n live longer. No need to look out for good or bad news. No news n stock quotation is even better bcz u r free from worry caused by others mistakes of judgement. D important point is to have a portfolio, like u don't have any portfolio!, because u sold some of your holdings when d price increased #>100%. U took back all your capital! So value n growth are joined at d hip, it is called value growth investing. Be Wise, n average up on weakness."
Past #<15 years of Pandemic n Endemic:
1.H5N1 Bird Flu (1997)
2. Nipah (1998)
3. SARS (2002)
4. H1N1** (2009)
5. MERS***(2012)
6. H7N9 Bird Flu (2013)
7. EBOLA*(2014)
8. 2019-nCoV2* (2020)
9. NCoV3***???*(2024)

>TOPGLOV=Retirement Portfolio®<

kltower1 "We are working on bringing a further 36 million vaccines for the citizens of Israel," Netanyahu said in public remarks. "The vaccines we have, no one knows how long they last...We need to prepare for the worst scenario. The worst scenario is that we have to vaccinate every half year."

That would mean as many as 36 million doses in the coming year, if all 9 million Israelis require two doses every six months, he said.

"The entire world will compete for those vaccines ...I am again determined to bring Israel to the top of the list."

What to do...Humanity at one of the lowest attitude, character n morality...It will get worse if all countries never cooperate n solve it...Causes n Effects is very fierce...!!!

Stock: [VS]: V.S INDUSTRY BHD
Mar 11, 2019 4:24 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyah...limit down only...@<5%...I taught going to be...@20%...Sold half of my portfolios...now only have...1. VS, 2. TopGlov, 3. Inari, 4. Penta, 5. Cash Flow...hehehe... Patience is the key...to Sai Lang... hohoho...!!!

Sold some #VS...#Inari...#Penta...All become zero capital portfolios...Hoot9E...#80%...#TOPGLOV...Hold free cash...#20%...｡◕‿◕｡

BTW...Must say TQ...Shorties n Hotties...!!!

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Nov 26, 2015 11:49 PM | Report Abuse
The 4R,
"The biggest challenge for long-term investor is to find d Right business with d Right Understanding run by d Right People n selling at d Right Price! So in d long run u can sleep well n live longer. No need to look out for good or bad news. No news n stock quotation is even better bcz u r free from worry caused by others mistakes of judgement. D important point is to have a portfolio, like u don't have any portfolio!, because u sold some of your holdings when d price increased #>100%. U took back all your capital! So value n growth are joined at d hip, it is called value growth investing. Be Wise, n average up on weakness."
Past #<15 years of Pandemic n Endemic:
1.H5N1 Bird Flu (1997)
2. Nipah (1998)
3. SARS (2002)
4. H1N1** (2009)
5. MERS***(2012)
6. H7N9 Bird Flu (2013)
7. EBOLA*(2014)
8. 2019-nCoV* (2020)
9. ...???

haha1234 geary geary geary thank you thank you thank you
U have the free cash just keep on adding on weakness...too irrational... Mr.Market...!!!
Supernormal EPS...#PE 2/3x...Normal EPS...#PE 10/12x.
Average normal earnings...glove counters PE was...#25x...!!!... Irrationally Priced at present...!!!

Many so-called short sellers ain't Foolish...they want to buy at much irrational price... it's how u calculated your risk n reward...your #100K... Can become #200K in #2/3 years time. That's >#30%:YOY...dividend not included...!!!

Disclaimer: Nobody take a gun and force anyone to invest TopGlove...don't believe don't buy...win or lose my own money...nothing to do with anyone here...!!!

EatCoconutCanWin When ppl scared we buy. No stock can't rebound. Buy n hold tight. Heng ong huat arh!!!
Added...!!!

Be a Value Growth Investor:
Analyse #5/10 years average Return On Invested Capital...Not present charts and price Volatilities...!!!
Academics largely see technical analysis as pseudoscientific nonsense. ... Buffett has said he “realised that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer”. To Lynch, charts “are great for predicting the past”.
Be Wise! ｡◕‿◕｡

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/charlie-munger-warns-of-market--frenzy---frowns-on-gambling-mentality--bitcoin--spacs-14274740

Present great swing traders are Soros n his sidekick, Druckenmiller, but they still have other long term hedging instruments...Be Wise n Invest Rationally...!!!

Pioneer of Day n Swing trader=>Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 – November 28, 1940) was an American stock trader.[1] He is considered a pioneer of day trading[2] and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre. At one time, he was one of the richest people in the world; however, at the time of his Suicide, he had liabilities greater than his assets. The ending is Sad...!!!

"Be wise, and be a value growth Investor, calculate the future value you are paying now at present price,"geary.

Added...#@5.28...KISS...!!!
Hold minimum...#5 years...ROIC...#>250%. Even those bought at #9.50...ROIC...#>100%==>YOY==>#>50% n #>20%... Respectively...◉‿◉

Disclaimer: Do your homework...then decide for yourself...!!!...Wise one will invest n hold a wonderful business...smart one will trade...!!!

On normal earnings multiple...will Add more on Weakness...<10x PE multiple...◉‿◉

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Feb 11, 2021 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

Buffett, "No matter how great the talent n efforts, things just need time, u can't produce a baby in one month, by getting nine women pregnant."

Added...@5.80...KISS...!!!
Hold minimum...#5 years...ROIC...#>250%. Even those bought at #9.50...ROIC...#>100%==>YOY==>#>50% n #>20%... Respectively...◉‿◉

Disclaimer: Do your homework...then decide for yourself...!!!...Wise one will invest n hold a wonderful business...smart one will trade...!!!

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Feb 3, 2021 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

Value Growth Investor Story...!!!
TopGlove>Bought RM 8.00>Jan, 2016.
#25,000units X RM 8.00= RM 200,000.

Bonus issues:
2016=1:1 ==> 50,000 units.
2018=1:1 ==> 100,000 units.
2020=2:1 ==> 300,000 units.
*Assumption==>
2022=2:1==>900,000 units.
2025=1:1==>1,800,000 units.
*2026= RETIRED...!!!
#1,800,000 units X RM6.00= RM 10,800,000...!!!

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get," Buffett.

Added...@6.08...KISS...!!!

TOPGLOV:
If U Hold 10,000 units, today #6.18 = RM 61,800.
Assuming, as taken from past historical data:
Bonus issues:
2022-2:1=>30,000 units.
2024-1:1=>60,000
units.
2027-1:1 =>120,000 units.
2030-1:1 => 240,000 units.
By 2031, ten years from now, if same price as today, #6.18.
ROIC = RM 1,483,200.
At present #6.18...Dividend Yield: 18/12%>DY>'21/'22.
!Gong Xi Fa Cai!
Disclaimer: Believe it or not! Do your own homework, n decide for yourself. Nobody force you to Buy n Hold, it's the waiting games!

Buffett, "No matter how great the talent n efforts, things just need time, u can't produce a baby in one month, by getting nine women pregnant."

TopGlove share prices have been uptrending for the past, #20/10/5/3 years, even after those bonuses n split. If without those bonuses n split, #1,000 units, the price is around #RM750.00. The highest share price in Bursa is Nestlé...but TopGlove is still the outright winner...ROIC...Get it...!!!

Added...@6.17...KISS...!!!

Disclaimer: Do your homework...then decide for yourself...!!!...Wise one will invest..smart one will trade...!!!

*TA...is relevant for forex, commodity, maybe bitcoin, etc. Stock irrelevant...because it has a business intrinsic value... either growing, erratic or declining...u must use FA to analyse the future earnings growth prospects, plus other benefits...!!!

Happy CNY...!!!

TG was crash until 5.30..
then back above 6.90..
if do 57% swing..hold 43%..
you always win on any situation..
who swing now below 6.18-5.95
will best bet..

w after 2 week from now..
we will back TG above 6.70.
so why worry

Me too...Swing Traders...｡◕‿◕｡

Buffett, "No matter how great your talent n effort, something just need time, u can't produce a baby in one month, by getting nine women pregnant."

Most people are shortsighted, TopGlove share prices have been uptrending for the past #20/10/5/3 years, even after those bonuses n split. If without those bonuses n split, #1,000 units, the price is around #RM750.00. The highest share price in Bursa in Nestlé...but TopGlove is still the outright winner...ROIC...Get it...!!!

Disclaimer: Do your homework...then decide yourself...!!!

DellLenovoHaier 3.5 leh??? Where is the 3.5??? None of you are doing the job properly, get me 3.5 now
10/02/2021 12:15 PM

Don't worry...u can get it after another ex-bonus...!!!

geary inPeace "Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off."
10/02/2021 12:03 PM

Added...@6.18...!!!
10/02/2021 12:08 PM

Retirement portfolio...More weakness add more...hopefully can retired by #50Yr.

Value Growth Investor Story...!!!
TopGlove, Bought RM3.00, Dec 2015,
#33,000units X RM3.00= RM99,000+.

Bonus issues:
2016 1:1 ==> 66,000 units
2018 1:1 ==> 132,000 units
2020 2:1 ==> 396,000 units
#396,000 units X RM6.30 = RM 2,494,800...!!!

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get," Buffett.

Added...@6.31...｡◕‿◕｡

"Patience is a friend of a wonderful business, but an enemy of a mediocre business, be wise", Buffett.

Value Growth Investor Story...!!!
TopGlove, Bought RM3.00, Dec 2015,
#33,000units X RM3.00= RM99,000+.

Bonus issues:
2016 1:1 ==> 66,000 units
2018 1:1 ==> 132,000 units
2020 2:1 ==> 396,000 units
#396,000 units X RM7.00 = RM 2,772,000...!!!

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get," Buffett.

Assuming company T is now RM4, IBs need to buy the mother share more so that the leveraged gain in mother share is enough to pay off the warrant holders. When there is no seller in the market IBs will need to bid up higher to RM5, RM6, RM7... the higher it goes the more they lost in warrant, the more they have to buy the mother shares. (This is assuming warrants 1:1 ratio).

In short, a short squeeze happens when: 1. Demand in buying the share increase, supply in selling share decrease, short sellers need to cover positions by buying back the share, this increase buying demand. 2. When there is high demand in call warrants, issuers need to hedge their positions by buying the mother share at a leveraged amount to compensate the warrants holders, thus adding more buying demand to the share price.

More buyer in mother share, more buyer in warrants, less people selling the mother share, that’s when mega short squeeze happen!

Normal flow of share purchase - insiders buy first, ask friends and relatives to buy, then institutional come in to support, give good research good report to push up, then when retails come in, institutions start offloading.

Gme is epic because they reverse the flow and make institutions cannot offload, but in fact, institutions have to buy more to cover positions!

How Does Short Squeeze Work?
Education
In the context of Malaysia, short was restricted to certain licensed institutions or traders due to the inactive local market and the small market size of RM2trillion we have here versus USD90trillion market in US. The stock market is about demand versus supply. Whatever price people buy and sell in the market does not impact the company technically, because it is a willing buyer and willing seller who value the company based on the growth story (potential). And in between the process, the institutions/IBs/funds participate to make money through broking, crossing deals, or even initiating their own positions. We call them market maker because they have huge capital and the ability to influence market sentiment.

Let me illustrate further using examples. Assuming company T issued 1mil shares to the market at rm1 in IPO, they raised RM1mil capital. After IPO, share price went to RM2, that doesn’t add more money to the company because company already taken the fund raised in IPO and whatever happen next does not contribute to their P&L (unless they have their own shares). How did it go to RM2? Investors think the company worth more, more people want to buy in and at the same time, not many investors want to sell. Thus, share price is being bid higher to entice early investors to sell it to new offerer. During this process, early investors made the gain, but who lose? The one who willing to offer at higher price take the risk of falling price. BUT, if noone want to sell, and more new investors want to buy, price will continue to go higher. Will it crash later? That would happen only when people stop buying and start selling in herd, increasing supply and lower demand.

To balance the economic of demand and supply, derivatives are invented - options, warrants, structured products. We often see warrants in Malaysia market, so let’s focus in warrants. There are basically two types of warrants - 1) warrants issued by company to raise fund for capex, 2) structured warrants issued by IBs. IBs use structured warrants as a tool to bet with investors that the share price can go above/below the strike price by maturity, and they take the money raised from investors to make money for themselves before the maturity by trading in the market.

Example, Company T is now RM2, IB issued a structured call warrant strike RM4 maturity in 6 months time. Investors thought it is very possible because growth story is hyped by IBs research and people think company got potential, thus buying into the structured warrant. This tool will drop in price as time decay is factored into the premium paid, unless the mother share price go above RM4, then IBs have no choice but to buy back the mother share to hedge, so that any upside gain in mother share can be netted off the money they lose in warrants. BUT, what if “somebody” have the ability to control the share price? That would determine who win when warrants expire! That’s why there is market maker. And market maker determine who win based on the market sentiment and how much is on the table to be taken. Based on my observation in the market in the past years, my experiences tell me that normally these warrants in Malaysia expire worthless and investors always lost.

What is shorting? A conventional way is to borrow shares(scripts) from existing investors, sell them in the market to make the price drop, and buy it back at lower price to return the same amount of share to existing investors. In order to persuade existing investors to lend shares, borrower has to pay interest, and lender has to be a long term investors. Thus, lender willing to lend out shares because he doesn’t care on the short term price movement. Short sellers make money from creating fear and panic selling in the market, taking advantage on short term investors’ fear. Is this market manipulation? This is healthy in a big and active market because of huge liquidity, but in a small and inactive market, people will psychologically become unethical in order to make the huge gain.

From the above illustrations, prices always determined by demand and supply. Prices up when demand higher than supply. Short is allowed in order to balance the supply. But there are people who take advantage to manipulate the prices in shorting. When share price start moving up and against the short sellers, they start losing money and they have to cover the positions in order to return the shares to their lenders. Hence, this covering add more to the demand and push up share price. When supply is less and not many investors selling the shares, short sellers have no choice but to bid the price higher as they are contracted to return the shares within a specific timeframe. This is Short Squeeze!

Stock: [SLVEST]: SOLARVEST HOLDINGS BERHAD
Jan 26, 2021 8:18 PM | Report Abuse

Flyinghorse TP 3.00 coming......!!!
26/01/2021 7:44 PM.
(θ‿θ)

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Sep 10, 2018 11:08 AM | Report Abuse
Investors must face all these volatility, uncertainty... unforeseen circumstances... unpredictable future...Buy on Weakness...!!!

A True Value Growth Investing Story!
My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had #2,000, TopGlove shares from Mar, 2001 IP0. After checked with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issues, #2,000 shares now amount to #244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM.
Value Growth Investing, time is a friend of a wonderful business, but an enemy of a mediocre!

geary Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD
Mar 11, 2019 10:18 AM | Report Abuse
Ha...Added...@4.45...!!!...KISS...!!!

Still added on Weakness...KISS...!!!
27/01/2021 12:17 PM

Flyinghorse TP 3.00 coming......!!!
26/01/2021 7:44 PM.
｡◕‿◕｡

A True Value Growth Investing Story!
My nephew friend went back home last week in Taiping and found a statement that his Dad had #2,000, TopGlove shares from Mar, 2001 IP0. After checked with remisier , shares still valid. Guess how much now worth?
After 1 split and 7 bonus issues, #2,000 shares now amount to #244, 608 shares. At 17/9 closing price of 7.79 , now worth rm 1,905, 496 . Awesome!!!
19/09/2020 4:45 PM.
Value Growth Investing, time is a friend of a wonderful business, but an enemy of a mediocre!
23/01/2021 5:44 PM