gt91, what special dividend? It is first interim dividend, and only 13% of net profit, very far from meeting the 40% dividend policy.

gt91, Revenue down 30-33%%, net profit down 13-16%. Better than expected? What was your worse expectation? You did not even mention.

Today, we will see if ks55 was right or wrong. He has been missing for some time, maybe lazy to entertain simon333/martin555, just waiting patiently for the today announcement.

If only. I hope so too, then can buy in. That's if market is open on Tuesday and no emergency state declaration, haha.

I don't chase high. In terms of PE and dividend yield, KSL is still not late to enter and much upside if results & sales numbers are good. The big money will only pour in during stability and clear outlook - right now there is none of those. Will wait for clarity from quarterly results and sales update from analysts.

Today whole market up, peers up. But Ringgit continue to slide, macroeconomic indicators continue to worsen; what does it tell you? Window dressing? :)

red_85 my friend just alert me, tmr quarter report is good and better than expected..ask me chase this ksl..will be a big gap next monday
27/08/2015 14:09

kenneth89 BUY NOW BEFORE IT REACH 2.50
28/08/2015 09:45

gt91 QR better than expected, fly to 1.5 today =) 1650 klse
28/08/2015 10:12


red_85, gt91, kenneth89. You all post like have insider info on the results, so what is the new forecast, and what was the original 'bad' expectation?

RM1.38. Not comfortable with KSL.

Sold. Will buyback when it touches <1.35 again.

N00b, that is a very optimistic short term TP.

RHB DOWNGRADES Coastal, cuts TP from RM4.30 to RM1.89 (-56%)

Kenanga cuts TP from RM3.74 to RM2.31 (-33.4%)

But overall positive report. Let's see whether their clients will reduce holdings. Then can collect some at RM1.65 hopefully, then it is more reasonable as it becomes closer to NamCheong's superior valuations.

In 1Q15 press release:

"While ongoing market uncertainties may pose a slowdown in new OSV orders in the year ahead"

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=186402&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

It was a caution, and we see revenue and NP drop 30% in 2Q15!

In 2Q15 press release:

"While the Group is witnessing slower OSV orders due to weak sector sentiment"

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=187947&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

So the company already receive slow orders since Jan-Mar 2015 (1Q15) or maybe even as early as Oct-Dec 2014 (4Q14).

So market sentiment (OIL PRICE) caused the poor results in Apr-Jun 2015 (2Q15).

Now, the oil price is even worse than during those six months.

And we are already 67% finished with Jul-Sept 2015 (3Q15).

So what do you think 3Q15 revenue and net profit will be? ;)

Check out analyst reports on NamCheong and their cautionary forecasts.

Sapphire: At least and the minimum..this black gem will back to usd110!
25/08/2015 18:39

Sapphire:

Even Wall Street brains have been consistently wrong (too optimistic) about the price your black gem so far: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/optimistic-oil-experts-still-see-rally-as-crude-nears-6-year-low

And you are predicting even higher than them?

So are we going to see a drop tomorrow? Revenue and NP down 30%!

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4842193

This will push up Coastal's PE to be even further from NamCheong from what it is right now.

And don't forget NamCheong's dividend yield of 10%, Coastal's of <4%. And it's on SGX, not as bad as KLSE's uncertainties.

Tomorrow's TP?

Any comments on Hua Yang? Lower PE and higher dividend yield.

pisanggoreng, any comments on KSL and Huayang? PE similar/lower than Matrix (ttm), and 7% dividend yield.

Thanks for your insight, pisanggoreng. Maybe I am still young and inexperienced, and believe in combining fundamental + technical.

Picked up a little at RM1.33 as it is already slightly reasonable based on the high dividend yield.

upsidedown119 ggg123. Why do you think Matrix's so stable? Care to share?
25/08/2015 15:47

As I shared in earlier posts, my view is that it is due to investor confidence and sentiment on:

(1) High degree of certainty of outperforming FY2014 profit. First half profit already >50% of last year. Backed up by consistently strong sales record in past few quarters, which will be converted into revenue and profit for next few quarters until 2016.

(2) Based on analyst reports, buyers from KL/Selangor are increasing due to spillover from expensive and unaffordable homes.

(3) Dividend yield of 6.5% based on FY2014 profit. This excludes special dividend, which would lead the yield to be higher. As FY2015 will be higher profit, so the yield should be higher.

In short, FY2015 and first half of 2016 is certain to have good results. After that, not sure anymore, it's anyone's guess.

(4) Consistent performance by management to deliver results and reward shareholders since listing, which leads to the company have many strong supporters. KSL does not have this benefit since they missed results guidance, this can be seen in the first wave of massive selloff after adjusted TP by Kenanga.

(5) Diversification into high-rise KL properties.

(6) Although overall property sector sentiment is down and has hit Matrix's share price, KSL is further hit by the second sentiment on Johor oversupply.

Also as I posted on Matrix page:

ggg123 Note: The first two dividend payments for FY2015 are only 30% of net profit, which is below the 40% policy. Also, the 2nd interim dividend ex-date has not yet passed. So you will be getting 2nd interim dividend, and also 3rd & 4th which will be higher in order to meet the 40% policy. Good deal. 25/08/2015 10:14

Yes, already bought in at lower range of 2.10 this morning. Now considering KSL.

I am referring to the monstrous volume that is queued for selling at 1.35 and 1.34. So far the selling has been ongoing since morning, at 1.33 and 1.34.

Any comments on the monstrous volume of sell Q?

pisanggoreng, if I had went in during the first week of August due to 'reasonableness' after seeing the first wave of sell off, I would be down by more than 15% right now. And just by waiting a few more days, I saved 5% compared to RM2.23 last week. You don't like discounts?

And one more thing, in this market, the dividend yield of 6.5% I am getting is worthless if sentiment continues to fade and the price declines more. Therefore I see it as just another 6.5% buffer in case it declines further, rather than yield.

Not comfortable with the PE yet, had already bought into Matrix this morning with <5 PE. Waiting for RM1.30.

kenneth89, two more days for sell off, then profit report.

Now this is what I call a reasonable deal. Obviously not a bargain yet, but who knows.

Note: The first two dividend payments for FY2015 are only 30% of net profit, which is below the 40% policy. Also, the 2nd interim dividend ex-date has not yet passed. So you will be getting 2nd interim dividend, and also 3rd & 4th which will be higher in order to meet the 40% policy. Good deal.

PE is not 1.89, that is based on revaluation. Actual PE is 5+

Collected a little bit at around 6.5% fy2014 dividend yield during the selloff, luckily showing some stability now in early morning.

Queuing below RM1.35, dividend yield of 7%

If I set my benchmark for reasonability at FY2014 dividend yield of 6.5%, excluding special dividend, price is RM2.12. Currently KSL is already providing a 7% dividend yield and worth considering. Any thoughts?

Many companies will do sbb at this time, or when it go down further. not only ksl.

Relax man, the whole world indexes decline. KSL still have cheaper opportunity to collect.

simon333 and martin555 is the same person? You bought in with all your life savings? If you have family, suggest you sell now before too late, market sentiment bad. ks55's forecasts have been correct, and also logical. I will buy in some at RM0.30, now already not far. Also USD/MYR still on uptrend, it is very possible that this company might show losses next 2 quarters.

Queuing some below RM1.40, hope can get it :)

Grace they have until 28 Aug to announce results.

N00b, can you please link me to an analysis/forecast for this? Where are your revenue and income streams coming from? Thanks

labu83 you mean surprise 10 sen down?

haiyeyila: I doubt the sincerity and intention of your posts:

1. As at 31 March 2015, Nam Cheong only had 15 vessels (out of 35) unsold. This does not match with your statement of 'vessels rotting at their miri yards'. Also, I think Coastal should have unsold vessels too, it is rather improbable for a shipbuilder not to keep some stock.

2. If NC's vessels are mainly built in China, does it even make sense for them to store in Miri? Where did you find this info?

3. Sky high debt? NC has gearing ratio of 0.86x. Less than 1x is very acceptable. Yes Coastal is in a better gearing position, so we may see Coastal pay minimal interest costs and have better margin than NC. But don't forget that Coastal's 3 new jack up assets will have to incur lots of borrowings, will we see this in upcoming results?

3Q maybe even more loss, with the USD/MYR.

Good for you TunaSeng. Now already making profit.

You guys are optimists, you can buy first, I'll still wait-and-see.

New heights in forex reached today: SGD/MYR 2.9744; USD/MYR4.1911

This will trigger more capital flight both from your normal households and also by foreign investors.

Leechongmeng, even if one off, it is still a shocker. What will be the TP today?

ks55 are we dealing with sane personalities here?

gt91: so you are quoting articles?

Bloomberg (14/8/15): Oil analysts are, if nothing else, optimists - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/optimistic-oil-experts-still-see-rally-as-crude-nears-6-year-low

Here, some of the world's largest organisations, first two are banks that you should have heard of, and one a research house. Let's see what are their latest forecasts for the USD/MYR:

Citigroup (17/8/15) - USD/MYR 4.10 - https://www.citibank.co.uk/static/documents/recap.pdf

Credit Suisse (18/8/15) - USD/MYR 4.22 -
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:cEpyfJlz5MgJ:www.bloombergtv.my/video/morning-market-check-august-18-2015/+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk

BMI Research (19/8/15) - USD/MYR 4.20 - http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/ringgit-to-hit-4.20-against-dollar-by-year-end-says-bmi-research

How would this help AirAsia's outlook? Hehehe! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/economist-three-reasons-oil-will-surge-past-70-by-the-end-of-the-year

I don't think anyone is that silly to fall for the alphajack trap. Well, hope not.

Sapphire, why don't you post some analysis on Coastal fundamentals and sales outlook.

gt91, nobody thought it would go from 3.50 to 4.15 in one year or less. You are predicting it do go back to 3.90 in 2 months. Wow. Salute.

haikeyila: namcheong and coastal operate very similarly in terms of OSV. I'm guessing coastal has some unsold vessels too, but that's not a big issue as they are probably kept in yards overseas with their principal shipbuilders. With namcheong seeing a second consecutive decline in profit for the quarter, there is a high chance coastal would report so in this quarter too. They aren't too different in their operating model, and if you noticed the guidance given in media quotes, this year is going to be a slow year for them. It is indeed surprising that they did so well in their first quarter. Time will tell, they still have one week to announce results, by then we can decide whether to buy in.