Will buy if it touches RM1.66 again. Right now Namcheong on SGX gives dividend of 9%, and lower PE, a better buy.

After reading through the above exchanges I have more appreciation for analyses (though sometimes too short) by ks55. And I have a headache now.

gt91: Probably pressured by big shareholder to do that. As N00b said, not a good use of cash. And you are confident it will grow to RM2 in 2 months? Then what is your prediction on USD/MYR and FBMKLCI?

TAH: Coastal weathered through 2008 successfully, most likely no problem this time.

As long as crude oil price is on downtrend, does not make sense to buy in yet. Even it's competitor Nam Cheong listed on SGX is on downtrend, with sell call by analyst. If competitor report poor profit for the quarter, it is very likely for Coastal to report similar results too. Now include the factor of weakening MYR and FBMKLCI, quite bearish sentiment.

Echoing N00b's sentiment, I would put more faith if it was a direct open market acquisition under Directors' name, not company. That is a better signal of confidence, not a mere attempt to support share price.

gt91: KSL PE ratio not so low. If it is indeed so low, of course it would be an outright buy, no questions asked. It is currently at 5.1x (ttm), similar to its peers of similar market capitalisation.

But, EPF might continue disposal? They still hold 7%.

Norges bank just entered, and KWAP top up, before results announcement. Since 2Q results already finalized or near finalized, must have gotten good indication from management. With GTB and MPI having higher PE, there should be room for price to increase. But in volatile market, it is anyone's guess on whether price will continue to slide down.

Hi kenneth89, not quiet, just patiently waiting for cheaper buy in price. Check out N00b's comment above.

N00b, I'm bearish on the market and MYR too. Buying some USD. If market strengthens further will start shorting.

Nam Cheong on SGX is on downtrend, wonder why Coastal up, maybe good news ahead?

Have not analysed in depth into their quarterly statement. If it is significant enough to draw your attention it is most likely due to launch timing? You want to share more?

That's where your views are slightly biased. There are companies on Bursa that are highly valued because they are transparent and consistently deliver their promise. Especially during missed forecast, they are the first to inform the analysts and explain to them their next step forward. Matrix is going that way, have been doing that since listing so far, you can see this through the analyst report that always have a second report after the first report, it means mgt spend time to explain their queries.

Well, if you're not keen, you can always check the analyst reports on the sales data. That's as close to predictability as you can get. This is all verifiable by yourself if you don't believe so.

If you didn't know, analyst forecast are frequently based on some 'guidance' and 'hint' from mgt, bordering on grey area of legal public dissemination. So far, if you check the reports dating back to listing, Matrix has consistently met public/analyst expectations, which represent the broader market perception, that's why they benefit from a premium (investor confidence) for their transparency and ability to deliver results. If you read through the comments in this blog since the first sell off, you can see a clear storyline and explanations on what happened to KSL.

You can view last year's figures, but they are too outdated. If you insist on using old news, then for property counters, you need to tally with the latest sales to be able to have an insight into upcoming profitability. To verify what I have mentioned, you can check back FY2013 sales reported and roughly tally back with the profit for FY2014 actual performance. Similarly, FY2014 sales will determine FY2015 profit. You can see this in the analyst reports, where they say 'management guided XXX amount of sales' / or / we are revising down sales' / or 'sales came largely in line with consensus expectations'.

As I mentioned KSL is setback by a confidence issue. Firstly, they did not meet profit forecast. After that, they did not meet sales forecast. Then came Johor oversupply sentiment, then property market slowdown due to GST sentiment, then here comes major uncertainty in Malaysia equities market and potential capital control. What do you expect investors to do?

upsidedown119, sustainability is a non-issue in this case because we are using TTM. As guided by mgt in analyst report the quarter spike is due to pre-gst completion (brought forward), and guided that next quarter profit will be lower, and all analysts are saying they on track to meet profit. This is also verifiable as normal and sustainable with their increasing property sales. Using FY2014 is old news, why would you want to do that when you have latest performance. The least you can say is wait for KSL to have 2Q results to have clearer picture from Johor sentiment, but not revert to old news. Investors want to see current performance, not old news, that's why you see Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo, S&P etc. all analyst reports are using PE and EPS (ttm) and also forward PE.

Yes hellowkiety, it is a good buy. If you have holding power, can keep. I will wait for lower, or at least some sign of Malaysia market stability.

Lee: Is there no comparison needed in stock investing?

upsidedown199, let's get the calculations straight:

KSL net profit (m)

1Q 2015: 82.5
4Q 2014: 43.8 (after audit and fair value adj.)
3Q 2014: 70.1
2Q 2014: 79.2
= 275.6

Market Cap @ RM1.40 @ 17/8/15 = 1392.7

PE (ttm) = 5.1 x

Matrix net profit (m)

2Q 2015: 29.9
1Q 2015: 115.4
4Q 2014: 56.2 (adj.)
3Q 2014: 45.1
= 246.6

Market Cap @ RM2.22 @ 17/8/15 = 1220.6

PE (ttm) = 4.9x

At this point, while Matrix is slightly cheaper, both valuation are very similar to each other. We can also probably say that KSL had to be discounted to match market sentiment and become closer to Matrix. Not only that, you can see other counter with good track record, like Tambun, also at this price level.

Drago Tian: Hope I don't miss the boat then.

upsidedown119: Firstly, P/NTA is not a contributing factor for stock performance, in fact it is frequently a lagging indicator on how well the market likes and values the stock. Profitability + confidence is the main factor. As you can clearly see how P/NTA continued to decline for KSL.

Secondly, based on latest quarterly announcements, Matrix at RM1.67, and KSL at 1.93, not as far off as you have mentioned.

And yes, KSL owns more land than Matrix, but as mentioned, profitability, future sale, track record, and investor confidence are key. Location too.

Also, if you know the history of Matrix, they don't own the land of their main township, the state government owns it. That means very low holding cost.

Drago Tian: Not yet. I am parking at RM2.10. MYR higher probability that not to continue weakening. Save some bullet for bank stocks also.

NP from Bursa, Market Cap from Bloomberg.

upsidedown119: Most analysts would use Bloomberg terminal. So easy way, and also to be consistent, is to take the Market Cap from Bloomberg website and divide by the company's NP for last 4 reported quarters.

How do you calculate?

Based on PE (ttm), Matrix 4.9x, KSL 5.1x (less fair value gain of 88m).

One with certainty of outperforming this year, one still uncertain.

Also, KSL property sales missed expectations in Q1. Investor also buy on sentiment. What is the sentiment on the whole property market and Johor right now?

I don't know where you refer, but Matrix PE (ttm) is 4.9x based on yesterday closing price of RM2.22, and 4.8x as of now RM2.20. Dividend of 6.8% based on FY2014, with a 40% payout policy. Right now they are paying 20+% only for the first half of the year, that means next two quarters dividend payout will be much higher as this year is best ever profit.

Not trying to promote Matrix, but it is a darling in the market, and if it is going down, and its peers are also going down, why KSL up? Just trying to add another perspective to the discussion.

Handal 2Q net profit comes in 3.6 times higher at RM2.5m: Expects to sustain performance for FY15, in view of its business' niche market, and its continued servicing of existing long term contracts, despite current depressed oil prices - http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/handal-resources-2q-net-profit-comes-36-times-higher-rm25m

Wow. marin555 can sleep better now with Masteel up 15% at opening. Wonder why, is it indication of improving 2Q financial?

The sell down started since Kenanga revised TP when they missed profit forecast last year. The perception on trust and confidence is very important to a stock. KSL will rise if there are two things: (i) value buying by new entrants, & (ii) meet analysts concensus. For now even Matrix at a value-buy (cheaper than KSL PE) is sliding due to market sentiment, I see no reason for KSL to rise.

The main reason matrix benefit from the stability you just highlighted is because of its track record in delivering growth, hence fueling investor confidence. KSL does not benefit from that, remember how there was a massive sell off after they missed their profit? And you can't use fy14 for matrix PE, which is currently 4.7x (ttm), because they already surpassed substantially more than half of last year profit, with almost certain probability to outperform, also check out amount of new sales which is also very high and would last for next two years.

Handal 2Q profit solid rebound: +263% yoy +376% qoq !! A buy for tomorrow? http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4830781

Excluding RM88 million fair value adjustment, FY2014 profit = RM254m. FY2014 P/E is now 5.3x at current price. This is similar to its other peers, see Huayang, Matrix, Tambun, which are still showing uncertainty.

7% dividend yield, selling basic consumer product - even during recession egg is still a NEED. Looks like a good deal for now. Keeping in view.

The 2nd mall + hotel ready only in 2018 if no delay. How many more years to break even?

Their bullet not unlimited, maybe just try to show some confidence. But if market continue to slide, we know where this is going. If other counters like Tambun, Matrix, Huayang continue to go down, does not make sense for KSL with the lowest dividend among all to stand strong.

Looks like some buy back made for everything below RM0.37 today. Let's wait and see if any announcement.

Even at all time low of RM0.35, still have huge lots of seller parked to sell.

martin555 you must have bought in earlier and losing alot right now, that's why have so many comments to cover up ks55 analysis? ;)

Then what's the point of a discussion? One man does not know all, that's why organisations work as a team to draw on everyone's experience. Anyway, I just did an 'industry channel check', which imparted that the industrial sales may not be much of a concern, as foreign buyers of land + manufacturing ops would view the situation as favourable due to a few reasons. There, I just debunked my own analysis.

Seeking insight is best done when thoughts regarding objective matters are put up for critique and discussion. Why is this turning into an investing principles 101 class? I've shared some concerns. Now it's others' turn to add on to or debunk my views.

Regarding the known part that you highlighted, it is already priced in for this year - everyone knows Matrix is going to have a best year in profit. Also, all the IB's TP include a lot of profit generated from industrial sales over next three years. This is assuming foreign investors are still interested. If MYR continue to slide further and make the headline news of Bloomberg everyday, do you think they would pump in millions any time soon to buy industrial land & build a factory here? This lends weight to my viewpoint of - wait for stability before re-entering - won't be too late - if the situation is fine the foreign funds that see Matrix's track record will start pouring in again, and that will be after you have made your re-entry.

Oh my. Now we bring in Christianity? You're saying God has willed for Matrix's price to perform well? How about God gave us brains to analyse the prevailing market conditions? That is what I have raised, about sales outlook amidst ongoing foreign investor flight and major slowdown in consumer spending sentiment that has affected other industries - both are real facts - what is so imaginary about this?

Not about to google on methaphors in story book written by some men when the stock markets weren't even invented yet, unless it's something by a successful corporate figure or investor.

I am guessing what you're referring to is an investing style which is unique to individuals. For that, have a look at KYY's latest blog post on his personal criteria during this volatile market.

Now that's been a long detour, how about we stick to objective and insightful discussions such as what I've raised earlier - residential and industrial property sales outlook and potential earnings.

Why should I be Googling on metaphors? How about sharing your insight into objective issues I raised such as how to determine sales outlook for next year?

Lol. xuemen you omit the 2nd part of my 'insight' on market. Anyway matrix should do excellent profit this year because of strong sales from last year and also for the first half of this year. But for sales in the next few quarters, which will affect Q4 2016 & 2017 profit, can you share your insights on whether they can do as much sales? In other sectors such as food and consumer goods, it's already showing bad results and expected to be worse because of poor consumer sentiment. Also don't forget matrix's strong profit this year had a large chunk contributed by the high margin industrial land sales when our economy and political landscape still looked stable to international companies, do you still think they will be so keen to invest hundreds of millions in Malaysia to set up new factory for this year and next year? :-)

Shrekk would probably say value investors can hold and keep. He has holding power. Me with puny capital need to take good aim.

I'm not going to debate on investing mentality. Matrix is fundamentally good and cheap right now with among the highest dividend yield for prop counters. Also this year they should deliver the best ever profit in history since listing. You can go ahead to buy, but I will wait for market to show some signs of stability. You might end up earning more than me, if that's the case congrats to you :)

xuewen you are a typical argumentative person that spam the forum with posts like the above. Let me shorten my point: I believe Matrix may still have much room to fall given current bleak market scenario, though it is uncertain. Which is why I cleared out since RM2.30+, as shortly thereafter it tested a low of RM2.10 while KLCI was still above 1600. Today, KLCI closed below 1600 while USD/MYR reached a new high. Is it the right time to enter? No one knows. If the broader market has stabilised, re-entering even at RM2.40+ isn't too late and poses no big difference.

How do you forecast with certainty year-on-year EPS growth and say it is undervalued when the whole economic situation is uncertain right now? I agree under value investing when market is stable but share price plunge due to irrational reasons, it is a good time to top up, but right now is it the same scenario?