I) quota cut TP 3.60 - 3.80
II) compliance TP 3.15 - 3.30
III) no action TP ipo price - 2.50

my 1/2 cents, : )

Morgan Stanley assigned an equal 33-percent likelihood that OPEC will cut its target to 29.5 million barrels a day, announce tighter compliance with the current 30-million limit, or take no action. A quota cut would spark a rally, a pledge of compliance cause a temporary “modest rally,” while no action would trigger a sell-off, Longson said. The group’s 12 members pumped 30.97 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Citigroup Inc. is among banks taking the opposite view. The bank considers OPEC action on Nov. 27 a “remote possibility” because so many members are unwilling to cut their supply, and Saudi Arabia won’t implement the required reductions alone.

Even without an accord at next week’s gathering, OPEC is likely to cut production in 2015 as the group’s own forecasts show declining demand for its crude, Longson said. OPEC projects it will need to provide an average of 29.2 million barrels a day in 2015, according to its Monthly Oil Market Report on Nov. 12.

If the group refuses to pare supply at all, prices may collapse to $35 or $40 a barrel, Morgan Stanley’s Longson predicted.

Maybank new TP 0.57

Shale Drillers Keep Output High Despite Oil Price Decline

Shale drillers are planning on production growth with fewer rigs despite a worldwide glut that has sent crude prices to a four-year low.

Companies including Devon Energy Corp. (DVN), Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) and EOG Resources Inc. (EOG) said they expect to pump more from their prime properties while cutting back in their least productive prospects. That puts the onus on OPEC nations, led by Saudi Arabia, to cut output if they want to stem the slide in global oil prices.

“There’s a lot more production coming online this year and in the first half of 2015,” said Jason Wangler, an analyst at Wunderlich Securities Inc. in Houston. “This isn’t a machine that you can turn on and off with a switch. It’s going to take months, if not quarters, to turn it around.”

Airasia will be affected seriously if AAX collapsed

印度確認首宗伊波拉病例

印度衛生部週二（11月18日）晚間發佈聲明說，一名26歲印度人經檢測確認感染高度危險的伊波拉病毒，這是該國首次發現伊波拉病例。這位從利比里亞回國的男子目前被隔離在新德里國際機場。

據印度媒體報道，該男子於11月10日乘機抵達新德里，隨身攜帶一份由利比里亞政府出具的伊波拉“治癒”證明。印度醫療機構指出，其血液樣本曾多次檢測為伊波拉病毒“陰性”，不過其精液樣本檢測為“陽性”，可能透過性行為傳染，官方最終確認該例病患。

trade, don't invest

AirAsia X Bhd is facing a tough cashflow problem following its rapid expansion amid keen competition among regional airlines, says CEO Azran Osman-Rani. He said rising operating costs and increased competition for the sector were serious enough. Azran said the airline is in a tough position but that it is not in danger of closing down.

Iraq’s biggest oil refinery at Baiji is set to restart processing in about three months after government troops forced Islamic State armed militants away from the facility.

Brent crude fell for a second day as investors weighed the likelihood that OPEC will reduce output when it meets next week amid signs of weakening global demand. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York.

i hv to agree with upsidedown119, trade skp, for investment, wait n see, :)

pity, Vin Cullen

亞航X（AAX,5238,主板貿服組）傳陷財政問題，恐飛不起來了？

但亞航X首席執行員阿茲蘭奧斯曼在接受《彭博社》電訪時否認公司面對財務問題 ，並將在明日公佈飛機融資計劃。

消息人士向財經日報《The Edge》透露，亞航X除遲遲無法轉虧為盈外，現還陷入更大的財政漩渦中，可能無法支付員工薪資和津貼。

報道指出，亞航X的員工接獲通知10月的薪酬和津貼將以交錯方式進行支付，其中基薪、固定津貼、生產率津貼（Productivity Allowance）和加班費將在10月24日進行支付，而飛行津貼、領域津貼、停飛過夜津貼（Night Stop Allowance）和佣金等可變津貼將在10月31日進行支付。

包機的崗位津貼（Posting Allowance）則將在11月5日進行支付。

亞航X管理層認為，延遲付款問題只是“暫時性”，並將問題歸咎於“資金未能及時到位”。

但消息人士補充，除員工薪酬問題外，亞航X也因現有財務狀況難以覓得金融機構為飛機提供貸款。

AirAsia X Bhd, the long-haul, low-cost affiliate of AirAsia Bhd, appears to be encountering greater turbulence. It is said to be facing payment problems relating to staff salaries and their fixed and variable allowances, sources close to the company said.

Brent Crude Drops as Japanese Recession May Curb Demand

Brent crude dropped, extending eight weeks of declines, amid concern that demand will fall after Japan, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, unexpectedly sank into a recession. West Texas Intermediate also fell.

一般上，上市公司在IPO後的1、2年內，資金應該相當充裕，大多不會好意思再向股東伸手要錢的，但近年來卻接二連三發生上市公司上市不足1年就打算再發附加股籌資的事件，令不少股東看了直搖頭。



就好比今年初才上市的IOI產業（IOIPG，5249，主板產業組），日前宣佈擬以6配1方式配售5億3千983萬5千787附加股，預計從中籌資10億2千570萬令吉作為資本開銷與投資等用途，讓令不少股東嚇了一跳。



聽到市場質疑聲浪，IOI產業管理層急忙跳出來解釋，這是因為公司IPO並未籌措任何資金，而是作為IOI集團（IOICORP，1961，主板種植組）股息派發給股東，因此自然需要籌資來支撐基礎建設和投資產業建設工作。



這樣聽來，發售附加股計劃似乎合情合理，但股東需瞭解IOI產業的負債比少於0.15倍，分析員以0.5倍最高淨負債比為準，IOI產業即可籌措高達39億令吉，舉債空間巨大，何需向股東攤大手板要錢。



也許是管理層考量國家銀行明年可能升息，為節省利息支出，甚至是為未來併購或發展提前儲備銀彈，但上市不到1年，股東還沒看到甚麼成績，就需再掏錢出來，於情於理似乎說不過去。



根據公司說詞，此次以高折價1令吉90仙（時市價約2令吉60仙）發附加股，也算是讓股東可以進一步“廉宜地”參與公司的機會。



其實，上市公司表現好，股東自然心甘情願掏錢出來，但甚麼成績都沒看到，就急著向股東拿錢實在太沒道理。

Sleepless in Singapore

The IOI group which went there early still has a number of projects that have yet to be marketed fully. It may face some challenges there. Relisted in January this year, IOI Properties Group Bhd has several projects there on a joint venture basis.

Although it is not a late entrant there, it had a different strategy from other Malaysian developers because it wanted to use Singapore as a platform for its overseas ventures. Also, unlike other Malaysian developers who concentrated on one project at a time, it has several on going simultaneously. Checks with several sources provide some indication of IOI Properties’ exposure. IOI Corp Bhd group public relations department did not answer questions emailed to them.

Says a source: “On Jan 16 2012, Singapore’s Housing Development Board (HDB) released a 262,828 sq ft plot in Jalan Lempeng. IOI Corp secured the site with the highest bid of S$408mil, winning against eight bids, with a second placed bid of S$360.97mil and third placed bid of S$333.78mil.

“That worked out to a cost of S$554.4 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr). Analysts had estimated a break-even cost of S$854 to S$974 psf ppr.”

While there was good response in the earlier marketing of that project - The Trilinq - interest wanned. Developer Clementi Development Pte Ltd, an entity held under IOI Properties, marketed the 755-unit project between S$1,190 and S$1,850 psf. The project is under construction and is expected to be completed in 2017. It is less than 30% sold.

The group also partnered with Ho Bee Investments Limited on a 50:50 basis to develop Seascape, comprising 151 exclusive waterfront homes with seaviews to the Southern Islands and the South China Sea. Ho Bee, established in 1987, has built a portfolio of residential, commercial, industrial and mixed-use properties. It is also a key player in the Singapore property industry and has been listed on the Stock Exchange of Singapore since 1999.

That site was purchased in March 2007 for S$459mil, or at about S$1,360 psf on per plot ratio.

Completed in 2010, it is estimated about a third of the 151 units have been sold since its launch in 2011 at an average price of S$2,600 psf, a source says.

In January 2008, IOI group also purchased a site - known as The Pinnacle Collection in Sentosa Cove, where the current Cape Royale is located - for S$1.097 bil, or S$1,822 psf per plot ratio. IOI has a 65% stake and Ho Bee, 35%.

Sentosa is currently selling at between S$2,000 and S$2,200 psf, which may not be attractive for a developer like IOI Property.

A property consultant estimates that IOI Properties may be looking to sell at about S$3,000 per sq ft. Breakeven will be around S$2,500 psf. So IOI should target to sell near S$3,000 psf. However, Sentosa, at the moment, cannot command this type of price level.

“Recent transactions for similar luxury condominiums in Sentosa are trading at S$2,000 to S$2,200 psf. Cape Royale was completed last year and is currently in the market for rent only,” says the consultant.

IOI Properties also had a joint venture mixed development with City Developments Ltd on Beach Road known as South Beach, a RM4bil mixed development designed by renowned architect Sir Norman Foster which includes commercial, hotel and residential components.

Its venture with Kim Seng Heng Realty Pte Ltd to develop Cityscape @ Farrer Park, a freehold 30-storey development comprising 250 units in District 8, with close proximity to Orchard Road and the Central Business District, had a happier ending.

In a statement to Bursa in 2008 when it purchased the Cape Royale site, IOI Properties Bhd (the entity that was delisted a year later), had in mind to diversify its existing land-bank, which was then all located in Malaysia (save for the joint venture with Ho Bee for Seaview) in 2007.

In a 2008 filing, IOI Properties said they had chosen Singapore as a platform for the Group’s regional diversification as Singapore properties are presently one of the most sought after in the region.

“In particular, IOI Properties has chosen to focus on development lands within the renowned Sentosa Cove area as IOI Properties’ association with luxury landmark developments ... will enhance the company’s brand name and reputation as a luxury quality homes developer not only in Malaysia and Singapore, but also in the larger South-East Asia region, which in turn can be used to the Group’s advantage in its regional diversification plans,” the filing said.

That acqusition would also enable the property group to diversify its property development earnings - which were mainly derived from the group’s township developments in Puchong and Johor - to include a myriad of smaller-sized niche developments in choice locations, the filing said.

The group rationalised that these smaller-sized developments would also typically have a faster development timeframe or ‘turn-around cycle’.

IOI group’s property division, with assets total

商品对冲基金RCMA Capital投资长达克金预测，就算石油输出国组织（OPEC）减产，油价仍可能再跌10美元，下探至每桶70美元。

他说：“整个情况还不稳定。”

他接受路透社专访时说：“即使OPEC每日减产100万桶，未来六个月油价，亦可能交投在较低的区间，以美国原油来说，区间大概是65至75美元。”

因供应庞大但需求却不振的冲击下，美国西德克萨斯中质油今年已重挫23%，目前已去到每桶不到76美元的三年低位。

沙地或减少出口

他认为，布兰特原油将低见70美元。因为就算需求不错，且OPEC减产，预料明年上半年油市中，每日仍有100至200万桶的供应过剩。

他说，全球最大石油出口国沙地阿拉伯或许会减少出口，但可能是因为该国国内加工业需要更多供应。

达克金估计未来六个月内，沙地阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国合计，每日将增加约100万桶炼油产能。

他相信，如果OPEC在11月27日的会议中无法达成减产共识，油价将进一步下滑，且跌得更快。美国原油甚至可能低见60美元。

Brent crude rose for the first time in a week amid speculation that the drop in prices below $80 a barrel increases the likelihood that OPEC will cut production. West Texas Intermediate was little changed in New York.

Futures gained as much as 1.4 percent in London. OPEC producers have stepped up their diplomatic visits before the group’s meeting in two weeks, potentially seeking a consensus on how to react to oil prices that have plunged to a four-year low. Prices could slide further in the coming months as the market enters a period of weaker demand, the IEA said today.

“I think the market is basically coming to the conclusion today that this latest price drop has actually increased the likelihood of action from OPEC,” Ole Sloth Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank A/S, said by phone from Copenhagen. “If there’s anything that can motivate some action, it’s these oil prices.”

oil will down to 70 etc, skp will down to 2.80 etc, so many expert here, ha ha, really made me laugh, thanks for the joke !

WTI headed for the longest run of weekly declines in almost three decades and Brent was set for a record losing streak amid speculation that OPEC will refrain from cutting production to ease concern of a supply glut.

Futures were little changed in New York and poised for a seventh weekly drop, the longest stretch of decreases since March 1986. Falling prices reflect a widening consensus that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain output, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, increased to the highest level since May, a U.S. government report showed.

this round weak O&G companies will be eliminated

if excluded from syariah compliance, i don't think middle east funds will invest in skp

Crude Oil (Brent) 78.79 USD/bbl. -1.59 -1.98%

brent crude oil below 80 now, panic or not ? : )

90% confirm, :)

nordi, can share K&K report, :)

thanks, fortune and upside, enough !

Brent crude extended losses from a four-year low, trading near $80 a barrel amid signs that OPEC remains unwilling to reduce output to ease concern of a global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York.

brent crude oil 80 now, panic selling possible below 80, cautious

emmmmmmm, look like Q result not so good

selling pressure slightly reduced

wait and see..................

emmmmm, not that easy to break 3.15 at the moment, : )

immediate resistance at 3.15, if break, next 3.20

The oil industry is over-committed to capital expenditure and will probably need to reduce spending on exploration and production next year, Wintershall AG Chairman Rainer Seele said yesterday at a conference in Abu Dhabi. Oil at $80 a barrel won’t stop BP Plc or Total SA from exploring for and developing crude, BP Chief Executive Officer Robert Dudley and Arnaud Breuillac, Total’s president of exploration and production, said Nov. 10 at the same conference.

Many companies made investment decisions over the past three or four years on the premise that crude would sell at $100 a barrel, Al Mazrouei said.

“There is a concern, but the long-term investors will continue investing in those large projects,” he said. “Some who are producing at a higher oil-price assumption, they will suffer.”

The oversupply of oil “didn’t come from us,” Al Mazrouei said of the U.A.E. and OPEC, which provides about 40 percent of the world’s oil. “We kept the market balanced. So we need to wait to see. Now OPEC members are meeting to discuss.”

The group exceeded its official target of 30 million barrels a day by 974,000 barrels a day in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“No single country can give you an indication of the result” of OPEC’s decision before it meets this month in Vienna. “We’ve been wise in much more difficult times than this. Let’s wait for that meeting,” Al Mazrouei said.

The collapse in oil prices may deter investment in exploration and production projects predicated on $100 crude, according to Suhail Al Mazrouei, energy minister of the United Arab Emirates.

“What worries us is that some investors will not continue to invest,” Al Mazrouei told reporters in Abu Dhabi. “Not us, others, are not going to continue to invest. And in a few years, we’re going to face difficulties finding enough investments in the market.”

Oil has fallen into a bear market this year on increased output of U.S. shale and other supplies. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the U.A.E., will meet Nov. 27 to assess the market and production. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have resisted calls for the group to cut production, while Libya, Venezuela and Ecuador have asked for action to keep prices from falling lower. Brent crude has tumbled 29 percent since June 19.

“This isn’t the first time that we see a drop in the market,” Al Mazrouei said yesterday. “If this is a phenomenon that’s going to last, it will affect some future investment, especially in the more expensive oil developments. If this is a short fluctuation, we’re not going to be panicking. And we never panic.”

wah, two head snake, ha ha

3.07, all matched, : )

Brent crude fell for a third day amid signs that OPEC members are reluctant to reduce supply even as prices slumped deeper into a bear market. West Texas Intermediate dropped in New York.

全球中行警告：QE退場恐引爆金融震盪

美、英、日、法等全球多國中行決策官員週日在巴黎集會時警告，當中行的擴張性貨幣政策開始退場時，金融市場可能再度發生激烈動盪。

他們也強調，正努力做好更周全的準備，以避免去年的聯儲局“宣告退場”的風暴重演。


美國聯儲局主席葉倫表示：“（貨幣政策）正常化可能造成劇烈的震盪。

聯儲局必須盡全力把貨幣政策策略跟外界溝通得非常清楚且透明，以期將意外的可能性降到最低，避免擾亂金融市場。”

紐約聯儲總裁杜德立也表示，美國可能於明年升息，“無疑將在市場引發某種程度的動盪”。

Oil plunged into a bear market last month, the result of a surge in shale drilling that has lifted U.S. production to a three-decade high as well as slowing growth in global demand. The drop has caused financial pain for some OPEC members, prompting Ecuador, Venezuela and Libya to call for action to halt the slide. Nigeria’s currency slumped to an all-time low last week and Venezuela’s benchmark bond fell yesterday to 56.63 cents on the dollar, the lowest level since March 2009.

Oil at $80 a barrel won’t stop BP Plc (BP/) or Total SA (FP) from exploring and developing crude deposits.

Oil has dropped into a bear market this year, with prices falling almost 30 percent since June amid a global glut. OPEC won’t cut its collective output when it meets this month and global oil prices will stabilize once the surplus is absorbed, Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said at an oil conference in Abu Dhabi, the capital of United Arab Emirates, yesterday.

All projects under way now will go ahead with oil at $80 a barrel, London-based BP Chief Executive Officer Robert Dudley said at the conference. Total, based in Paris, can proceeed with its projects at $80, Arnaud Breuillac, president of exploration and production, also said in Abu Dhabi.

low gearing still call for right issue

well said gorengkaki

乌克兰军方称，32辆俄罗斯坦克和数卡车俄军士兵穿过边境进入乌克兰境内。若情况属实，则暗示双方或再度爆发武力冲突。

这也意味着，一旦战事重燃，可能干扰石油运送并影响供应，从而推高全球油价。

不过，北美页岩油供应也增加，导致全球油市供应过剩，对石油输出国组织（OPEC）原油的需求减少。

OPCE在上周四预计，到2018年，其市场份额将降低5%，因页岩油供应继续增加，增速快于需求增长的步伐。

OPEC won’t cut its collective crude output when it meets this month and global oil prices will stabilize once the surplus is absorbed by the market, Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said.

OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, meets Nov. 27 to debate supply. The 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has a production target of 30 million barrels a day, pumped 30.974 million barrels a day in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I don’t think there will be any cut in the production,” Al-Omair said at a conference in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. “We feel prices will settle down once surplus oil is absorbed.”

West Texas Intermediate traded near the lowest level in almost a week as forecasts for a sixth straight gain in U.S. crude stockpiles boosted speculation that rising output is outpacing demand growth.

Futures were little changed in New York after declining 1.6 percent yesterday. U.S. crude inventories probably expanded by 1 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before a government report on Nov. 13. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t cut its collective output when it meets this month

Oil has slumped about 28 percent since a June peak amid speculation the market is oversupplied as demand slows. OPEC’s largest producers are responding by cutting prices

Crude Retreats on Concern OPEC in No Hurry to Cut Output

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped on speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is in no hurry to cut output to reverse a slide in prices. Brent fell in London.

Kuwait’s oil minister said he doesn’t expect OPEC to trim production at the group’s next meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27. Crude has slumped into a bear market this year amid a global glut. The largest OPEC producers are responding by cutting prices, resisting calls to reduce supply as they compete with the highest U.S. output in three decades.

“There’s downward pressure here to the extent that we are not seeing any real signs of an OPEC cutback,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “This is what a bear market looks like, that it couldn’t sustain any of the gains.”

crude oil strongly rebound, 2morow 3.20 will be tested