Btw, if the price of petroleum goes up, all other fuel will follow..that includes ethanol..ha ha

with the current disruption in Saudi oil production for months to come..the urgent need to procure equipment to restore supply as well as other OPEC countries urgent need to pump up to restore the world demand is real. This means that the demand for equipment for the next 12 months will be very urgent. What this means is that providers can charge a premium for expediting the commissioning of the equipment.

I foresee that the under utilised assets at KNM will be put to run ... remember during the Iraq Saddam Hussein war, some fields take up to 9 months to put out the fire. But the refineries were running as crude can be extracted in other fields.
This time we are looking at building the whole complex from scratch. This will take years ...

Whether US will take out their Strategic reserves and if so, by how much remains a question. The current stabilisation of Brent at 64-66USD/barrel can only be temporary because shipments of oil and gas for winter is about now till November. ( in the cold countries , the purchase of energy peaks during these winter months). Contracts have been locked in and suppliers need to fulfill contract or declare a force majeure ...either way, buyer and seller will suffer.
So, i am of the opinion that urgent announcements on measures taken to restore supply does not reflect the actual situation on the ground.

Whats the first reaction? Everyone will panic to store up and demand this time is real.

So, KNM may be poised to run their production at full swing for the next 24 months...

at PAT 200mio on PE 12 for Cap 2.6 billion shares = RM 0.92 per share..
at PAT 300mio on PE 12 for Cap 2.6 billion shares = RM 1.38 per share..

my 2 cents worth..

mainland China are strong in Construction but still lack niche engineering expertise.. don’t rule out a China company to be actual suitor.. amidst the decoy of using European interests to divert attention.. China lacks this area of expertise greatly

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/15/long-term-recurring-income-for-bio-ethanol-project/

Based on above 2017 article, second phase of Impress Ethanol should be contributing to the upcoming 30 June 2019 Quarterly report.. ?

it is hard to find another Company that has such expertise and proven track record like KNM. It has good management skills and ability to steer the Co out of difficult times and persevere with its longer term objectives and goals.
Now that Impress Ethanol is starting to bear fruit, Borsig, Peterborough by 1st half 2021... there is really no way to estimate its value in this current time...
I agree with Sardin..RM3 is not absolute..

Thanks Sardin for sharing the insightful explanation

Yes, I am a naive investor and I assume the German financial institutions, Peterborough Council, Borsig, the Belgium company, all of us and the investing Thai family are as naive...

lovely99, i dont need to know when you buy or when you sell, when you make love and when you ejaculate, assuming you are a guy ... it is better you keep your activities to yourself.

It is the listing of the Private Placement not a second PP.

These estimation are excluding many other contracts and most contracts won this year will have positive contributions to FY2019 /FY2020...

This PP exercise is fair at 0.16.

Anyway, this is only my view and anyone is welcome to comment .

I agree with Sardin 81 and masterkevin212.
Let me quote Masterkevin212: "In order to hit RM 1.00, KMN market cap shall be RM 2.3 Billion. Let's say, base on KNM's reasonable PER at 15, KNM shall show profit at least RM 153 million per year."

Here is one new contribution coming on stream this quarter.
KNM Impress Ethanol
Capacity 200,000 litres/day x USD1.5 (NYSE Ethanol ) = USD300,000/day or USD108,000,000 per year or RM 450,000,000 assuming margin at 30% would translate to RM150,000,000 profit.

30% margin is realistic as the plant is extracting from Cassava which is very cheap,, cheaper than corn or sugar cane used in other ethanol production.

The fact that not one but several German financial institutions have extended the facility of Euro 200 million to KNM is a great endorsement. Banks will only lend if there is visibility of future business and when they are sure of getting their monies..
"The new facility was secured by Deutsche KNM GmbH and Borsig GmbH from IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, which acted as the arranger, agent and security agent (mandated lead arranger), and other participating financial institutions." quoted from The Edge.

Sardin81, infinite and Masterkevin212, thank you for your kind sharing of logical, far sighted and wise comments. After all, we are investing for long term prospects and the future and not history..As business people, we invest when we see the potential and prospects.. keep you comments rolling in guys..or ladies..

lovely99, I have been reading your comments.....perhaps Fixed Deposits could be another option for investment..

on the other hand, if not because of Trump, KNM would be higher than the current price

with the very large impairment factored in Q4 last year, I am looking forward to better 1st Quarter 2019 results soon.

even if win arbitration payment will not be immediate. usually a given time frame to settle amount. may take up to 3 months
anyway, i think KNM have a very good case...

thank you Masterkevin212.. appreciate your kind sharing

good as it is used to finance an expansion in ethanol plant in Thailand and not for paying debt..

bursa approval needed for PP.. within 2 months..

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/sapura-energy-swings-back-black-4q-fy19-disposal-gain-pays-05-sen-special-dividend

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-ramp-fy19-capex-above-rm50b-confirms-mulling-indian-solar-firm-buy

Thank you for your explanation Sardin81.

its a gem here!

there are many companies that hoard huge amounts of cash with a passive management. It is useless for minorities..better buy unit trusts..
KNM has over the years transformed itself from a contractor into owner of utilities and industries which generates continuous income. Bank monies are meant to be borrowed and used for good projects.. nothing wrong even with over 1 billion in debt when its is put into a proven management team with experience and foresight.
Its management is definitely strong given that not many engineering firms actually own and operate huge utilities overseas...
Best part, at 0.20, risk is really minimal...

Stick to fundamentals. No need to worry...

Just be patient as there is a private placement coming up.. could dampen prices .. look at Keyasic

agree hyino..