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3. BUT…. We do not think it is all doom and gloom
3.1 Poor sentiment but buying is resilient
During the last economic crisis, although the consumer sentiment dropped to
70 pts, retail sales still registered 0.8% growth. This time, although consumer
sentiment has fallen below the 100 pts threshold level, it is much stronger than
the levels seen in 2008-09. Hence, the impact on consumer spending will be
much smaller. We are expecting consumer spending to continue to grow but at a
slower rate of 5.5-6.5% in 2014-15 vs. 7.2% in 2013. If the government were to
increase electricity tariff every six months, consumers will adapt to it gradually.

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2.4 Higher OPR rate increases loan payments
The recent rise in OPR rate will raise property loan repayments as property
loans have floating interest rates. Based on our analysis, a 25bp increase in the
interest rate would reduce consumers’ disposable incomes by 1.5-2.1%,
depending on the tenor of the property loan. Our economist thinks that there
could be another hike in 2H14 which would further increase loan payments.

2.2 Subsidy rationalisation will continue
Even after many rounds of subsidy cuts for various items, we believe that the
government will continue its subsidy rationalisation programme to reduce the
country’s budget deficit. Our house view is that there will be another fuel price
hike in 2H14, while the electricity and natural gas prices will be increased
sooner or later as electricity tariffs have to be raised to close the gap between the
true cost of generating power and the current subsidised tariffs.
2.3 Inflation to stay elevated
Due to the anticipated further cuts in subsidies, our economist believes that the
inflationary pressure will remain elevated. Aside from the further cuts in
subsidies, the introduction of the GST will also induce temporary spike in
inflation, once it is implemented. All in, our economic team is forecasting the
full-year inflation to average 3% this year and 3.5% in 2015 versus an average of
2.1% in 2013.

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1.8 But F&B companies continued to deliver strong results
F&B companies, however, did well, notching up double-digit earnings growth
except Nestle due to the timing difference of A&P incurred. The strong
bottomline growth is no surprise given that F&B is deemed a necessity and will
be the last item that consumers cut back on.

1.7 Breweries and tobacco companies did not do well
Breweries and tobacco companies were not spared the weaker consumer
spending.
Double whammy for tobacco. In 2013, the tobacco manufacturers were hit
by both slower consumer spending and an excise duty hike. Due to the excise
duty increase in September 2013, the companies were left with little choice but
to raise selling prices although sales volume has already been hurt by the slower
consumer spending. This caused 4Q13 sales volume to fall by double digits yoy
though it recovered qoq in 1Q14 as (i) the government cracked down on the
illicit market in March by launching the “Ops Outlets” operation, and (ii)
smokers adapted to the new pricing. Net profit however continued to show
growth in 2013 as higher selling prices more than offset the volume decline.
Brewers saw weaker consumption. Both Carlsberg and Guinness were
affected by weaker consumption in the past few quarters. Though Carlsberg
reported better earnings yoy (+3.6%) in 1QFY14, it was not due to the stronger
sales volume but was boosted by better pricing and lower operating costs.

1.6 Retail sales still growing but at a slower rate
In tandem with the poorer consumer sentiment, retail sales growth slowed
down in the past 12 months although it was still registering positive growth.
Aside from this, we found out that a few of the suburban malls in Selangor and
malls in other cities experienced lower traffic in FY13, which the companies
blamed on the softer retail environment.

1.5 But consumer sentiment has weakened
Although the unemployment rate remains healthy, the high inflation rate has
dented consumer sentiment as the higher cost of living has crimped disposable
incomes. MIER’s consumer sentiment index now stands at 96.8 pts. It fell below
the threshold level of 100 pts in 4Q13, the first time in five years after the plunge
in 2008 during the Asian financial crisis. While the index rebounded in 1Q14,
the confidence level remains below the threshold of 100 points, indicating that
confidence has yet to turn the corner.

1.4 Unemployment rate remains healthy
The unemployment rate remained healthy at 2.9%, below the threshold of 3%,
in Apr 2014. The number of persons employed and unemployed remained
steady at 13.5m and 407k, respectively, in Apr 2014.

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1.2 Headline inflation on the uptrend
Due to the ongoing subsidy rationalisation, headline inflation rose from Sep
2013 to Mar 2014 when it peaked at 3.5% yoy. It has inched lower to 3.3% yoy in
Jun 2014, but remains above the long-term historical average of 3%.

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Belt-tightening times
Given the inelastic demand for F&B products, we expect the sector to
outperform the brewery, tobacco and retail sectors. Brewery and
tobacco will be the worst hit as consumers cut spending or downtrade
to cheaper products. We remain Neutral on the overall consumer
sector and recommend a switch to F&B or REITs for better yields.

OLD CIMB TARGET 3.72,,,NEW ONE IS 3.94 FROM ABOVE REPORT

Sector top pick

QL enjoys economies of scale, thanks to its large size in the industry.
The company’s ongoing expansion and turnaround of its new
businesses will drive its FY15-17 earnings growth. We believe QL’s
earnings will remain resilient despite the slower consumer spending.

We lift our FY15-17 EPS forecasts as
we update our FY14 numbers. We
keep our Add rating and target price,
still based on the consumer sector
average of 23x CY15 P/E. We continue
to favour QL for its: 1) uninterrupted
27-year earnings growth, 2) strong
potential earnings growth due to its
aggressive expansion plan, and 3)
resilient demand for its products.
Marine product business
Even though its largest MPM plant
has only just started operating, QL is
looking to acquire another piece of
land for expansion in Johor due to the
strong demand. Its total expansion
capex in 3-4 years is estimated to
reach about RM50m. This new plant
which has a higher production
capacity will slowly take over its old
plants' capacity in Johor to boost
operating efficiency. In Surabaya,
Indonesia, the group is still waiting
for the approval of the authorities to
venture into surimi-based product
manufacturing. Currently, it has only
fishmeal and surimi manufacturing
plants in the country. As for its new
prawn-farming venture, the first few
ponds will be ripe for harvesting in
Jun/Jul 2014 and the group expects
to harvest 1,100mt by FY15 and
2,200mt by FY16 when it completes
80 ponds.
Livestock farming
QL’s egg production in Indonesia hit
800k eggs per day in FY14 and it
targets to hit 960k eggs per day by
end-Dec 2014. With the increasing
sales volume, we believe that the
poultry business in Indonesia could
turn profitable with the completion of
its own feedmill in 4QFY15, which will
help reduce the cost per egg by at least
half a sen per egg. In Vietnam, eggs
produced per day hit 500k in Mar
2014 and are slated to rise to 600k by
Dec 2014. For the next phase of
expansion in Vietnam, it has
identified a piece of land near its
existing plant.
Palm oil activities
After a long gestation period, QL is
expecting its palm oil activities to
break even in FY15 due to the
increasing maturity of crops. As at
end-Dec 2013, out of the total 20k ha
landbank in eastern Kalimantan, QL
has planted 10k ha – of which 50%
has matured.

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sometimes devils do receive garlands

AhMoi Yo Johnny, my man, my main man

I am 100% sure there will be a firing by end July.......
21/07/2014 08:44

AhMoi,, your name you look female, is that true?? hope u do not mind,,just asking only

Hovid (HOV MK)
Technical BUY with +13.6% potential return
Last price : RM0.440
Target Price : RM0.480, RM0.500
Support : RM0.405
Stop-loss: RM0.400
BUY with a target price of RM0.500 with stoploss
below RM0.400. Following a breakout
from the “rectangle” pattern on 7 Jul 14, the
share price continued to climb higher and
established a new support level at RM0.405.
Last Friday’s rebound from the immediate
support level has ended the profit-taking
activity, thus HOV is likely to resume its
upward movement from here onwards. Positive
readings from both RSI and MACD signal a
strong momentum and may push HOV into
new territory in the near term. Moving forward,
we peg our upside target at the psychological
level of RM.500.
Expected Timeframe: 1 week to 1 month

Sentoria Group (SNT MK)
Technical BUY with +11.3% potential return
Last price : RM0.960
Target Price : RM1.00, RM1.08
Support : RM0.910
Stop-loss: RM0.890
BUY with a target price of RM1.08 with stoploss
below RM0.890. Following a correction
from the recent high of RM1.00, the share
price established strong support at RM0.875
before recovering gradually along the longterm
trendline. A breakout from the short-term
downtrendline and “cloud” on 14 Jul 14 has
placed the share price in a new up-leg. Given
the positive closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level on the back of a higher
trading volume, we expect further upward
movement hereafter. This is consistent with an
upward sloping Relative Momentum Index
(RMI) indicator which signifies stronger
momentum ahead. Moving forward, we expect
a rally toward the previous high of RM1.00 in
the near term with the 1.61x Fibonacci
extension level of RM1.08 as our next target.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

OCK Group (OCK MK)
Technical BUY with +12.4% potential return
Last price : RM1.53
Target Price : RM1.72
Support : RM1.43
Stop-loss: RM1.42
BUY with a target price of RM1.72 with stoploss
at below RM1.42. OCK’s share price has
consolidated within the “rectangle” formation in
the last 2 months. However, last Friday’s
strong gain has placed the share price in new
territory amid the breakout from the “rectangle”
and the previous high of RM1.52. Given the
higher trading volume recorded, we expect
renewed buying interest has kick-started a new
up-leg. Additionally, the bullish crossover in
both MACD and Stochastic should boost the
share price higher in the near term. Moving
forward, we peg our next target at the 1.61x
Fibonacci extension level of RM1.72.
Expected Timeframe: 1 week to 1 month

1.20 CIMB TARGET PRICE

T(oo) H(ot!)
Undervalued and under-researched, THHE is set to chart a blazing,
sector-beating 3-year EPS CAGR of 106%, thanks to a bigger yard and
fresh forays into FPSO and T&I. Look no further for a stock that offers
a tantalising combination of highest growth and cheapest valuations.
We begin coverage with an Add call. A
growing order book and successful
FPSO and T&I ventures are the
potential re-rating catalysts. We value
the stock at a CY15 P/E of 16.4x, a
30% discount to the average P/E of
the oil & gas big caps. THHE replaces
Perisai as our top pick among the oil
& gas small caps.
From fabrication...
Formerly known as Ramunia, TH
Heavy Engineering (THHE) has its
roots in fabrication, where operations
are carried out at its 57-acre yard in
Pulau Indah. To compete better with
its bigger rivals, the company is
upgrading and doubling the yard's
capacity to 20,000 tonnes p.a. by
end-3Q14. Furthermore, THHE's JV
with US-based McDermott allows it to
tap on the American company's
300-acre Batam yard and engineering
capabilities.
...to FPSO and T&I
To reduce its dependence on
fabrication contracts which tend to be
lumpy, THHE has made inroads into
the floating production, storage and
offloading (FPSO) and transport and
installation (T&I) businesses whose
income is longer term in nature. In
May 2014, THHE secured a 9-year
US$372m FPSO contract, with
extension options of up to 10 years.
Its key FPSO asset is 80%-owned
Deep Producer 1 (DP1). The company
has exposure to T&I through its 30%
stake in McDermott's pipelay barge
DB30.
RM1.6bn record order book
The US$372m FPSO contract
catapults THHE's order book to a new
record of RM1.6bn. The only way for
the order book to go is up following
the ongoing yard expansion. The
company also plans to add three more
FPSO vessels over the next five years.
106% 3-year EPS CAGR
We are the second research house to
cover THHE, which has been largely
overlooked by the market. The stock
presents the most attractive growth
story in our oil & gas portfolio,
offering a 3-year EPS CAGR of 106%,
significantly above the sector average
of 34%. Yet, its valuations are the
cheapest, at 8-12x FY15-16 earnings.
Earnings visibility is solid given the
FPSO contract.

VT is a real donkey, does not know who are his real loyal investors, or long time investors...this are the investors who had bought BJ CORP,, about a few years ago when price was more then 2... VT should do something for them...sell a portion business of BJ CORP and return back the money to the loyal investors... why this donkey is so CROOK n GREEDY

AhMoi Tuajaya is gonna fly. First target 2.8+

Per Mr K Indian power plants will start firing END JULY

Today 20-7-14, 11 more days to go.....
20/07/2014 17:39

are u sure AhMoi my lady ??

CIMB TARGET RM 2.03

Liquidity quadrupled!
Bonia’s one-for-one bonus issue and two-for-one share split have gone ex
today. We are highly positive on this corporate exercise, as we believe that it
will improve the stock’s trading liquidity and generate larger interest among
investors. We adjust our FY15-16 EPS for this. We have made an adjustment to
our valuation method. We now apply a 15% premium over the retail sector’s
average P/E of 16.8x to incorporate Bonia’s stronger growth outlook,
resulting in a target P/E of 19.3x of its CY15 EPS (previously 19.3x) which we
believe is a more accurate method to value the company. Accordingly, we
adjust our target price to RM2.03. We reiterate our Add rating, expecting this
corporate exercise to provide a re-rating catalyst.
What Happened
Bonia’s proposed one-for-one bonus issue and two-for-one share split have
gone ex today. Its bonus issue involves the issue of 201,571,850 bonus shares,
doubling its outstanding number of shares to 403,143,700 shares. Its share
split involves the subdivision of every Bonia share into two shares, again
increasing the number of its ordinary shares to 806,287,400.
What We Think
We are highly positive on this corporate exercise. Although it does not alter the
company’s fundamentals, we expect a significant boost to the stock’s trading
liquidity and marketability. Its bonus issue and share split have quadrupled its
number of ordinary shares, while its ex-rights price is only 25% of its
cum-rights price. We believe that its higher number of shares and much more
affordable share price will generate larger interest among investors. This
should improve the stock’s trading volume, which we expect to lead to higher
valuations.
What You Should Do
Accumulate the stock. Even though Bonia has rallied strongly of late, increasing
20% for the past three months, it is still trading at a discount to its intrinsic
value, in our estimation, with upside still substantial due to the company’s
strong growth outlook. Its bonus issue and share split should provide further
re-rating catalysts

thanks for sharing

how about dsonic, no hope ha, or got hope??

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=822628474415097&set=np.88363422.100002496753938&type=1&theater

Will KESM (9334) retest RM2.68 support level ?

PLEASE LOGIN TO FACEBOOK FIRST

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=822632067748071&set=np.88363422.100002496753938&type=1&theater&notif_t=notify_me

HUNZPTY (5018) forming bolinger band squeeze...

please login to facebook first... CAN SOMEBODY FROM THIS SITE EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT IS THIS BOLINGER BAND SQUEEZE????? IS IT A SUITABLE TIME TO GO IN ?? PLEASE GIVE OPPINIONS

http://www.stocktrendcommander.com/

have a trial first ma,, then customers can decide if want to subscribe.. just blindly subscribing is also not right

Ancom (ANC MK)
Technical BUY with +20.1% potential return
Last price : RM0.645
Target Price : RM0.74, RM0.775
Support : RM0.61
Stop-loss: RM0.60
BUY with a target price of RM0.775 with stoploss
at below RM0.60. Following a failure to
surge past RM0.68 on 2 Apr 14, share price
has consolidated lower and established a
strong support at RM0.53. Share price has
gradually recovered and made a new higher
low. Yesterday’s gain looks set to kick-start a
new up-leg, given the formation of a “bullish
engulfing” pattern on the back of higher trading
volume which indicates a reversal from the
earlier pullback. Positive readings from both
the MACD and Stochastic signal a stronger
momentum and this may push share price
higher. We expect an upward continuation and
peg the upside target at 1.61x Fibonacci
extension level of RM0.775 over the medium
term.
Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

Asian Pac Holdings (APH MK)
Technical BUY with +19.4% potential return
Last price : RM0.31
Target Price : RM0.35, RM0.37
Support : RM0.29
Stop-loss: RM0.285
BUY with a target price of RM0.37 with stoploss
at below RM0.285. Following our BUY call
on 1 Jul 14 at RM0.29, share price is
approaching our initial target price RM0.32
after climbing along the steeper trendline in the
past three weeks. APH has also established a
new support at RM0.29 with yesterday’s gain
set to kick start another up-leg. Positive
readings in both the RSI and MACD indicated
a presence of stronger momentum which
would boost share price to retest the
immediate resistance of RM0.32. A breakout
above this level should ensure an upward
continuation. We peg our medium-term target
at 1.61x Fibonacci level of RM0.37.
Timeframe: 1 week to 2 months

VS Industry (VSI MK)
Technical BUY with +14.4% potential return
Last price : RM1.88
Target Price : RM2.06, RM2.15
Support : RM1.80
Stop-loss: RM1.79
BUY with a target price of RM2.15 with stoploss
at below RM1.79. Share price has
established a strong upward trend after
breaking out of a 3-year high on 8 Jul 14 to a
new high of RM1.92. It also has established a
new support at RM1.80. Given yesterday’s
gain, VSI has formed a bullish reversal
“engulfing” pattern on the back of higher
trading volume, thus suggesting the pullback is
over. We expect VSI to resume the uptrend
amid an uptick in the RSI, which implies
growing momentum. We peg our upside target
at 1.61x Fibonacci extension level of RM2.15
over the medium term.
Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

MAS got another slap

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ALL ABOVE ARE KENANGA REPORTS, SOME ARE CLEAR SOME NOT SO, BECAUSE I COPY N PASTE,

Post removed.Why?

SCC Holdings Last Price RM1.55
Kenanga New Premix Catalyst Non-Rated RM1.68 Consensus N.A. N.A.
By the Kenanga Research Team l research@kenanga.com.my

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About the stock:
Name : SCC Holdings Berhad
Bursa Code : SCC
CAT Code : 0158
Key Support & Resistance level
Resistance : RM1.67 (R1) RM1.88 (R2) RM2.00 (R3)
Support : RM1.50 (S1) RM1.40 (S2) RM1.35 (S3)
Outlook : Bullish

Comment: SCC has been consistently trading in an
uptrend since the start of 2014. Chart-wise, the share
price looks like it is taking a breather with volume seen to
be waning and MACD crossing below the signal line.
Momentum also seems to be slowing down slightly with
Stochastic and RSI indicators hooking downwards.
Notwithstanding, share price appears to be well supported
at RM1.50 level, which is its 50-day SMA and this might
be a good level for traders to “Buy on Weakness”.

INVESTMENT MERIT
· An unheralded gem. SCC Holdings Berhad (SCC), a modest company
which was listed since 2010, primarily operates under its vision of ‘going
green’ with two core divisions: (i) Animal Health Products Division
(AHPD) and (ii) Foodservice Equipment Division (FED). Under its
AHPD, the Group primarily conducts sales, marketing and distribution of
non-antibiotic animal health products for livestock feeds. On the other
hand, the Group acts as a one-stop-solution distributor of food service
equipments in the F&B industry under FED, which includes provision of
installation, service and maintenance and supply of ingredients.
· Food supplies segment as the new catalyst. The Group ventured
into food supplies manufacturing in FY13 under its in-house brand
name Cook Master and recorded turnover of RM1.3m in five months.
The segment has since seen rapid progress as the Group’s R&D team
worked closely with customers to develop various new food recipes and
premix ingredients, which eventually could lead to expansion of the
retailers’ food menu. Currently, the Group is partnering with a reputable
food retailer to ride with the latter’s aggressive marketing development
plans, where management believes could be the earnings driver moving
forward. SCC has also secured the Halal certification for its premix food
ingredients and this will help facilitate the Group’s venture into the Halal
Food market.
· Exploiting opportunities in the new ruling for green feed solution.
The Government has the intention to enforce a new ruling on farmers to
only use green feed solution. This is to prevent livestock from
consuming animal feed that potentially contains overdose of antibiotics
which residual could affect the immune system of human on over
consumption. In tandem with the Group’s vision to bring green and
wellness products to the industry, SCC could greatly benefit from this
new ruling as they currently work closely with leading biotechnology
companies to develop non-antibiotic and natural feed additives, which is
better and healthier for the growth of livestock.
· Healthy balance sheet with unused IPO proceeds. SCC is currently
sitting on a net cash pile of RM15.7m, implying 36.7 sen/share or 23.4%
of the group’s market capitalisation of RM67.1m. Besides, SCC also
has unutilised IPO proceeds of RM2.3m, which the Group has allocated
for capital expenditures and working capital purposes. Backed by the
strong balance sheet, we believe that the group will be able to finance
its new food supplies segment expansion with ease.
· An attractive minimum dividend payout policy of 35%. In line with
its minimum dividend payout policy of 35%, SCC has been rewarding its
shareholders by declaring 1.0-16.5 sen annual DPS since FY10,
translating into 1.0-11.0% dividend yield. In view of the good prospect
and healthy cash-flow, we understand the Group intends to maintain its
minimum dividend payout policy moving forward. Based on a targeted
dividend payout of 35%, we expect the group to distribute 4.9 sen-5.7
sen DPS in FY14-FY15, translating into dividend yields of 3.2%-3.7%.
· Non-rated with a fair value of RM1.68, based on a targeted 12x CY14
PER (in line with the FBM Small Cap forward PER of 12.4x). While the
group’s valuation appears to provide limited upside from here, its strong
balance sheet and attractive dividend payout remain are favoured by
investors. We will relook the stock when the group’s valuation falls to a
more attractive level.