Noted, hope can secure more solar power plant in future, thin profit margin but steady income over 21 year concession.

Local solar power plant profit margin is very thin, single digit only, but still far better than loss making mall.

Jaks still have about 6 to 9 month meet dateline to subscribe 10% additional stake. If JV need higher reserve cash as buffer in power plant, then, jaks cannot use all its retain profit in JV to use for subscription for 10% stake now.

However, any short fall of RM 200m is rather limited due to strong cash flow in JV every quarter. A fraction or even half of requirement fund to subcribe equity can easily source from short term banking bridge loan

Hope for betterment forward as further downside is limited now

Recent private placement should raise fund RM 22m, at least meet 2 quarter cash flow needed. Next month when 50MW reach COD, should give some positive cash flow to jaks. Within next 2 quarter, jaks should meet milestone to increase stake to 40% after put aside some reserve cash in JV.

Thereafter, jaks should start record positive cash flow onward through quarterly cash dividend declaration.

however, jaks may need another quarter or 2 to accumulate more profit in JV if JV require some reserve buffer cash in JV.

Under Jaks JV assest, RM 610m back by its 30% equity stake in power plant assets in JV, another RM 220m in JV is jaks retain profit accumulating more than 2 year operation. Therefore, Jaks can use its retain profit to subscribe its option to top up additional 10% equity stake now.

Please take note, Jaks JV asset account for its own 30% equity stake, exclude its china partner asset in JV

Why cannot??? every quarter jaks record share of profit from JV and these profit is accumulating under its JV assest. Since COD, jaks JV asset already increase by more than RM 200m from RM 610m to RM 830m which is correspond to jaks share of profit in 2021 RM 135m and 2022 ( RM 145m), nett of dividend payout RM 71m back to Malaysia.

The reason Jaks cannot opt to cash out all its retain profit from JV is to working to subcribe additional its 10% equity stake in JV.

Vietnam power plant is operating positive cash flow, in which is aim to declare maximum all profit to JV. Jaks is free to cash out from its profit in JV anytime if wan after meet minimum reserve cash buffer in JV.

Jaks currently is operating in negative cash flow due to mall loss making, therefore, it need private placement to meet shortfall, which should last till of these year. Upcoming 50MW solar, once reach COD next month will give some free cash flow to Jaks too to offest partly current negative cash flow.

All now awaiting jaks to subcribe its additional 10% equity stake via its retain profit in JV which should be very soon as retain profit now is now more than enough to subcribe RM 200m 10% equity stake now. Announcement should be make very soon.

Once these key milestone reached, 40% equity stake share of profit will boost up jaks free POSITIVE cash flow significantly through cash dividend declaration quarterly or semi annually forward

Only after jaks complete it milestone after more than 2 year operation to fully reach its equity stake from 30% to 40% via JV retain profit, then, jaks will be able to declare cash dividend to shareholder as 40% equity stake will enable jaks to pocket RM 160-180m share of profit annually, more than enough to offset local loss making RM 40-50m mall,

Just be patient, wait for another month for Jaks to reach COD for its 50MW solar power plant, and then announce subscription additional 10% equity stake for RM 200m through retain profit in JV.

jaks already working on to use profit from JV to subcribe its additional 10% equity, therefore, it cannot declare higher dividend back to Malaysia.

Once, the retain RM 190m profit + ongoing profit sharing is use to subcribe its 10% equity, boots up its stake to 40%, higher profit RM 40m/quarterly and higher dividend is expected to declare forward back to Malaysia, which is easily meet Malaysia negative operating cash flow -RM 10-15m due to continue loss making in mall operation.

Going forward, jaks have 3 catalyst factor

1. Tailing end local loss making construction work
2. Subscribe additional 10% equity stake RM 200m through retain profit in JV worth RM 190m + ongoing accumulating steady quarterly profit
3. Additional 10% profit sharing is more than enough to offset recent 10% private placement dilution
4. COD solar power next month provide another stream of profit, offset partly continue mall loss making

The RM 71m dividend payout is corresponding to reduce JV asset in last Q4 2022

Please do some home work by calculating Jaks JV assest since COD 2 year ago, which show the JV assest have increase from RM 610m to current latest RM 829m after nett off RM 71m dividend payout

IPP is NOT paper profit, but is real profit as shown by Jaks last Q4 2022 result which indicate RM 71m dividend payout from JV power plant. Bear in mind, RM 71m payout is 25% retain profit payout after 2 year operation. The balance cash profit in JV still have about RM 190m, which is sufficient to capitalize for additional 10% equity funding which require RM 200m to subcribe

After 2 year Vietnam power operation, Jaks investment in 30% stake in JV have increase from RM 610m to RM 820m, mainly due to 2 year of share of profit about RM 280m (2021: RM 135m and 2022: RM 146m). Jaks have opt to receive first dividend payout RM 71m from share profit last year, therefore, the balance share of profit retain in JV investment is about RM 190m.

Jaks have another 1 year due to opt to subscribe additional 10% to up its share of profit from 30% to 40%. The cost to increase 10% is RM 200m. Therefore, Jaks no need to raise additional cash to subcribe these 10% portion as jaks retain profit in JV about RM 190m is sufficient enough to self feed its top up 10% equity, boots up its share to 40% now.

At least local loss making construction work have reach tail end, by just eliminate these loss making business will boost up jaks profit forward. Additional profit from 50MW solar power by next month will also contribute higher profit to jaks forward.

US abort plan to incur import tax on solar panel manufacture in SEA countries will encourage more solar production and export to US. Myammar plan to ban tin export to preserve its mining and Indonesia also plan to ban export refine tin to encourage downstream value add in.

USD strengthen against RM is good for pure exporter - MSC

Tin price rebound strongly

Jaks first 50MW solar power plant should be commissioning by next month, another steady stream of income for next 21 year.

Jaks share price affected by Malakroff loss making due to slump in applicable coal price, but, the factual is Jaks is different from Malakroff as all it coal price is cost pass through and payments are guaranteed by a take or pay PPA
contract (alike Malaysia first generation IPP award by M to YTLP, the most lucrative IPP)

Capacity payment is not subject to minimum
generated electricity. The calculation for capacity
payment is based on a formula and as long as we
produce electricity, the capacity payment will be
paid

1. The coal supplied to the power plant is entirely sourced locally, via the coal supply arrangement
signed with Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Group, to ensure a stable supply of coal for
25 years.

2. Further, the coal price is pass-through to the off taker, and as such, JHDP is not exposed to the risk
on the global coal price fluctuations, and therefore, barring any unforeseen circumstances, JHDP should remain profitable.

3. JHDP will produce consistent earnings as most payments are guaranteed by a take or pay PPA
contract, therefore capacity income from the plant should remain as a stable contribution for
years to come

4. Capacity charge consists of approximately half of
the total revenue in year 2021.

4. The coal is supplied from Vinacomin on a preagreed price based on the coal supply
arrangement. We are not affected by the fluctuation as we are sourcing locally from
Vinacomin. Regardless of the coal price, it will pass through to EVN hence it does not affect our
profitability

Sold back at 70.5 - 71.5sen

Petron Corp Q1 result, the non-control interest profit is Peso 361m. The non-control interest profit refer to 26.6% non-control interest in Petron Malaysia. Therefore in total full Petron Malaysia profit should be
100% /26.6% = 3.76
3.76 x Peso 361m = Peso 1357m
Peso 1357m x conversion rate 0.08 = RM 108.6m (Q1 EPS = 40.2sen)

Estimate petronM Q1 Eps around 40sen

bought petron at 4.50

https://www.petron.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Petron-Corporation_SEC-Registration-No.-31171_Quarterly-Report-1st-Quarter-2023_11-May-2023-1.pdf

https://www.petron.com/news/petron-reports-consolidated-net-income-of-p3-4-billion-in-q1-2023/

Apple Inc (AAPL) on Tuesday said it has entered a multibillion-dollar deal with chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) Inc to use chips made in the United States.

Under the multiyear deal, Broadcom will develop 5G radio frequency components with Apple that will be designed and built in several U.S. facilities, including Fort Collins, Colorado, where Broadcom has a major factory, Apple said....bye to inari, all apple RF will be manufacture by boardcom manufacture plant in US to centralize US supply chain instead rely oversea supplier like inari

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-inks-multi-billion-dollar-131328919.html

bought wce at 50sen

bought back msc at 2.02

bought last batch at 1.09

added more at 36.5-37sen

added more at 1.10

bought back annjoo at 1.11

Flour selling price will retain elevated, while input cost wheat price is tumbling.

add more mflour at 67.5sen, average down

Wheat futures in the US fell toward the $6.2 per bushel mark, heading toward the two-year low of $6 touched on May 2nd amid renewed expectations of abundant supply among the world’s top producers. After a long period of uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan stated that Russia will extend the deal guaranteeing grain exports out of Ukrainian Black Sea ports for 60 days. Such developments will preserve Ukraine’s access to key foreign markets and increase price competition with other major producers. Adding to the bearish pressure, the USDA forecasted a drop in global demand for the upcoming marketing year due to lower feed and residual usage. Still, the body downgraded production from Russia and Ukraine due to the impact of the war between both countries, while lower yields pressured output forecasts in Australia.

Wheat feedstock price have tumbling, but due to forward contract, Mflour still unable to benefit from low input cost, lag time factor. The low input cost will likely only able to capitalize in next Q, widening profit margin.

Mflour just alike cement maker despite increase selling price but still only able to fetch small profit margin due to high input cost Mflour (wheat price) and for Cement (coal price). Recent Cement post leap up profit margin due to tumbling in coal price, its matter of time due for Mflour to post leap up profit margin due to tumbling in wheat price

bought ays at 38sen

bought masteel at 31.5sen

sold at 74sen, take profit first

PP fixed price done, time to focus on Q result, EPS growth

In Sarawak, CMSB is largest cement maker, but share price affect by power supply issue

Hume Panda cement only have small cement market share, whereas YTL cement and Lafarge cement command largest Malaysia cement market share

Hume limit up, when is YTL turn ?

YTL cement also export cement to Singapore, command higher SGD profit margin