MizieXX
Just relax, utility stock is recession proof business, more so after traffic rate hike, PBA water concession have now become super lucrative utilities stock. As PBA just post first maiden Q result after rate hike effect, knee jerk effect have sent PBA stock hitting historical highest level, following later now by volatile taking profit activities.

As we all known traffic rate hike impact will valid for next 3 year, therefore, PBA coming EPS will be sustain above EPS >15sen for cumulative over next 2 year before due another review on non domestic water rate in 2026 and following by another due on domestic water rate in 2027. Thus, keeping for long term and enjoy eventual fair PE valuation 10x for target price RM 6 is viable investment strategy now. In the meantime of waiting, just continue enjoy dividend as passive income which should getting higher following PBA improve profitability.

Aside, increase profit margin due to water traffic hike > 180%. Increasing water sold as Penang water demand continue growth also will contribute higher revenue forward which Penang gov project water demand will increase from current 870MLD to 1350 MLD by 2030 or about yearly 6% yearly increment water growth.

Take note, the proportion between domestic and non-domestic water consumption have gradually change from 62% domestic : 38% non domestic to current ratio 57% domestic : 43% non domestic will also increase PBA profit margin forward as non domestic water consumption in Penang is spur by increasing foreign investment in manufacturing, semiconduction, hotel and mall which their water consumption is >35m3 at higher water traffic rate RM 2.10/m3.

He always to claim he recommend supermax stock at low price for first time recommendation to claim multimillion profit margin, but he never claims he keep continue recommend supermax on the way up for second time, third time……at different high-level price for late comer with reset new even higher target price. Likewise in YTL

He himself always ignore what he Philosophy: TA come first, FA second

Technical chart is very bearish

YTL frog project under RM 4 billion 1 BestariNet despite claim successfully, but, in actual never successful implement now in any school

The problem now is general public believe Muhyiddin, opposition PN leader is corrupted politician. Muhyiddin awarded 1bestarinet to YTL even through open tender but during phase of implantation, a lot of work didn't complete or partial complete and a lot of fund missing and YTL was also given FOC to set up 4g communication tower in school compound for YTL Yes mobile commercial use. A lot of school are complaining at that time and yet education Ministry give endorsement that 1bestariNet successful completed

Still in consolidation mode to solidify recent share gain. PBA should regain more momentum to breakout RM 3 decisively before heading to next Q result

RM3 billion missing from the 1BestariNet project, claims Former Minister Maszlee

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2024/09/1294225/sprm-siasat-projek-1bestarinet-apa-yang-kita-tahu

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/bahasa/tempatan/2021/09/06/muhyiddin-sangat-marah-desak-peletakan-jawatan-saya-kerana-kontrak-ytl-kata-maszlee/

Generally, if river run across different state, only downstream state will
complaint upstream state draw water upstream water which can affect downstream river water level.

NOT, the opposite like kedah which is upstream river complaint downstream in Penang.

These kedah MB is indeed a real clown to twist fact. So, no point Penang Chief argues to clown mindset people, lets settled in court, let judge rule based on law

Instead of Let these clown MB satisfy his ego hero publicly, Penang Chief is asking Kedah to settle these unfounded water dispute in court as Penang view these is best way to stop dispute through law

No matter what happen to market that prompt retail investor profit taking to enjoy on recent PBA share price spike., PBA next coming Q result will still enjoy recurrent water traffic hike billing income that valid for 3 year.

Therefore these lucrative profitability, EPS > 15sen per quarter will continue for next 3 year,

No worry, let the dust settle in court few year later.

In Malaysia, water supply services are regulated at the Federal Government level. Federal regulation includes
the regulation of water rates that are set, approved and gazetted by the Federal Government. Individual states
and water supply operators (such as PBAPP) may not arbitrarily introduce new water rates.

Hence, for Malaysian water supply operators, new regulated water rates are the most important factors that
generate the biggest impact on financial performance, revenue and profitability

Penang water traffic rate hike indeed resulted water consumer paying average 180% more higher, increase PBA revenue translate direct bottom into profit.

Ok, noted.👌

MizieXX

Just for clarification, May water consumption is 105m3, according to new water traffic rate, the bill payable should be RM 132.35

bimonthly water: 105m3
monthly water: 52,5m3
0-20 = RM 0.62 x 20m3 = RM 12.4
20-35 = TM 1.17 x 15m3 = RM 17.55
>35m3 = RM 2.07 x 17.5m3 = RM 36.225

Total monthly bill = RM 66.175
Bimonthly bill = RM 132.35

Kindly check whether May bill is correct or not?

🙏

Dear MizieXX
Many thanks for your kindness to provide real penang water bill hike detail. Thanks again

Dear mizieXX
Can do me favor, if convenient and time, kindly post your Penang water bill detail
1. bimonthly billing from jan-aug
2. total water consumption
3. totals amount payable

Water concession business model is safe heaven in time of market turbulence. It is without short of selling treated water business, PBA is task to increase as much possible treated water capacity to meet ever increasing Penang water demand growth from current 890 MLD to 1350 MLD by 2030. With water traffic hike average 180%-200% now, PBA water business have now becoming highly lucrative profit business. Strong cash generated will allow PBA to built more water treatment plant, replace old water pipe, reduce non revenue water which is viable win win business model by increase more capex now to increase further future profit

Chow was responding to Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor’s comments on Monday (Sept 2) that the state was preparing to take legal action against Penang to seek compensation for raw water usage.

Chow said if the matter was to go to court, there would be laws and international conventions regarding Riparian water rights (an internationally recognised system for allocating water among states or countries who possess land along the river’s path).

“The court has to decide on this but there are other international conventions on water sources involving more than one country or state,” he said.

Dear mizieXX
Can do me favor, if convenient and time, kindly post your Penang water bill detail
1. bimonthly billing from jan-aug
2. total water consumption
3. totals amount payable.

It normal for market to response to news as headline is Kedah seek Penang water compensation which indirect affect PBA share performance today. lets these unlogic news settle few day, lets legal process which need many year to dissolve these kind of state gov dispute

Religious based rulings party only can rely on natural resource to develop such as mining, forest logging, water, exploit century history territory hoping to regain Penang land back

Anwar went on to explain that the position of Penang as a state within Malaysia that is separate from Kedah has been clearly stated under Clause (2) Article 1 of the Federal Constitution.

It provides that the federal states consist of the state of Malaya are Johor, Kedah, Kelantan, Melaka, Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Perak, Perlis, Penang, Selangor, Terengganu, as well as Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak.

"Clause (3) Article 71 of the Federal Constitution read with the Eighth Schedule of the Federal Constitution has guaranteed the position of the state constitution, including Penang.

"The existing provisions of the Federal Constitution are the result of agreements between the British government and the Malay Rulers to form the federation, which was the Federation of Malaya Agreements dated Jan 21,1948 (1948 Agreement) and Aug 5,1957.

"Penang is a sovereign state in Malaysia and its position is always guaranteed and has been provided in the Federal Constitution, which is the main law of the federation," he said.

Anwar emphasised that he did not want to prolong the issue which had become a debate of sorts and was leaving it to the Attorney-General to take appropriate action

https://www.therakyatpost.com/news/2023/06/02/kedah-mb-says-penang-is-part-of-kedah-but-is-he-right/

Since it become court case, let the judge decide to backfire these Kedah MB which also concurrent also seek Penang belong to kedah also

Greater Ulu Muda water-catchment area was a shared enclave between both states. Muda River, which courses through the catchment area, serves as a boundary between Kedah and Penang, and Penang draws raw water from the river at its own costs.

“The Muda River does not belong to Kedah. The raw water from the river does not accidentally flow into Penang’s Sungai Dua Water Treatment Plant.

In the case of Penang, raw water is extracted from the Muda River by way of pumping it at the Lahar Tiang Pumping Station into a 14km canal which flows either into the Mengkuang dam (funded by the federal government) for storage or directly to the Sungai Dua treatment plant

Some 80% of Penang’s raw water comes from Sungai Muda. Kedah and Perlis also rely on the same river for water, accounting for 96% and 70% of their water supply, respectively. The river serves a combined population of 4.2 million people across the three states.

In conclusion, If kedah seek compensation from penang, Penang also have right to seek compensation from kedah as both state and Perlis are draw water from same river which run across all 3 states.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/09/02/kedah-to-take-penang-to-court-for-compensation-on-raw-water-usage-says-mb

vs.

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2024/09/1100290/penang-cm-ready-court-showdown-kedah-over-water-dispute

Water traffic will have to increase on every 3 year to review higher forward, especially higher hike is needed when Perak-Penang water transfer start supply additional water to Penang after 2030

Why need to issue sukuk like RANHILL, bear huge interest expense?

PBA is very well managed company in the past as evidently by its unbroken yearly dividend and increase cash position even need to give RM110m subsidy to domestic water user. It is very efficient in managing water asset, cash flows especially after granted water hike now.

PBA will best use of these strong cash flow to meet new water treatment plant and pipe replacement capex forward.

Also take note, Penang government will start payback PBA advance loan RM88m given to state goivermennt begin next year 2025. This represents the amount due from the State Government of Penang of RM88.76 million, discounted using a rate of 4.642% per annum and carried at amortised cost. The said amount of RM88.76 million is receivable by eight equal instalments of RM10 million per year, followed by one final instalment of RM8.76 million commencing from 2025

Decision on Water traffic revision is control by Fed government agency SPAN jurisdiction instead of state
government.

PH government exercise right decisions to allow all state government increases water traffic but at different traffic rate in accord to state government proposal. Penang state proposal is second lowest among all state as Penang gov still willing to subsidy to help domestic user albeit at lower subsidy now.

However, as Penang water consumption is expect to surge 50% by 2030, Penang need a lot of cash to built more water treatment plant and reduce leakage through old pipe replacement, decrease nom revenue water. Therefore, PBA need to increase higher water rate in next 3 year review to boost up ot profitability and increase cash flow to meet these capex which in turn increases water sold later, paving win win cycle for business growth to meet futures demand

Rush hour to grab PBA before too late as public free float share is very limited (Penang gov control 69%, and balance 30 largest shareholder control another 15% )

PBA, proxy to Penang development such as properties development, LRT, Airport expansion + semiconductor hub + silicon island, Andaman island etc

We’re pleased to announce the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has confirmed acceptance of the UK Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) for hydromethylthionine mesylate (HMTM), a 4 mg oral tablet for the treatment of mild cognitive impairment (MCI-AD) and mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease.

This application is being reviewed within the scope of the 150-day accelerated assessment procedure, which is used by MHRA to accelerate the availability of medicines for patients in the UK.

We look forward to sharing further updates as the application progresses.

https://taurx.com/news-insights/mhra-confirms-acceptance-of-uk-marketing-authorisation-application-for-hydromethylthionine-mesylate-hmtm

I only can said PBA is now in very rare stock condition, possess both very high and predictable return, deserve fair valuation PE 10x or fair target price RM 6 due to sustain water traffic hike for next 3 year and yet in very low risk concession business model and as Penang solely GLC stock listed in Bursa, the only Penang proxy listed stock

Toward breaking RM 3.00 resistance level

Of course PBA have big room to growth to reflect fair valuation for its Penang monopoly concessions business model.

However, as PBA only first record maiden EPS due to domestic wa0rter traffic hike. Therefore, PAB need to record at least another consecutively similar EPS, allow market to roll forward annual EPS and affirm market that PBA earning is indeed sustainable for next 3 year.

The fair 10x valuation is justifiable for utilities stock after take into account PBA small cap and low liquidity than other bigger utilities stock like TENAGA, YTLP, Malakroff etc

Under the new rates, the first 20 cubic meters is at 62 sen (up 182 per cent from 22 sen), from 20 cubic metres to 35 cubic metres the rate is at RM1.17 (up 154 per cent from 46 sen) and for the third band of more than 35 cubic metres, the rate is RM2.07 (up 204 per cent from 68 sen).

Thanks to PH government decisive making to revive water operator. The above domestic rate will last for next 3 year before next cycle review in 2027. In the interim, non domestic rate will also to subject review in 2026 after first review hike average 50% last year.

For now though, optimism is running high, even among sell-side strategists. Nomura Holdings Inc this week upgraded equities in both Indonesia and Malaysia citing solid macro fundamentals, while HSBC Holdings plc noted that Indonesian stocks had started commanding a bigger heft in the portfolios of Asian funds.

The ringgit and rupiah are among August’s top three gainers against the dollar in a basket of more than 20 developing-nation currencies. Fed chair Jerome Powell said this month that the time had come to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that US officials will begin lowering borrowing costs from September.

Exchange-rate watchers see likely further weakness in the greenback giving emerging-market currencies more wind in their sails. With foreign currency holdings at banks in Malaysia and Indonesia near a record according to data compiled by Bloomberg, more support is seen coming when exporters convert their dollars into local currencie

Remark: HIBISCUS derive USD profit, but, it's major earning contributor is from Msia operation, which paying in RM cost. Furthermore, crude oil have decrease from USD 89 to current USD 75-78, therefore, hibiscus next earning will record lower profit.

Sslee have more than RM 5m in portfolio, peg 4- 5% dividend yield stock will convincing give him RM 200k dividends income

But can balance portfolio with certain proportion for high dividend stock and stock high growth EPS

Good for Sslee to earn passive dividend income more than RM200k pa. JTIASA dividends yields is far better than insas or call warrant.

Recent strength in RM will give great relief for fertiliser import cost in USD

The key is strong free cash flow and upcoming big increase in CPO production volume + higher CPO selling price. Dividend is additional bonus for your time to stay invested

Agreed to compared PBT fot clearer insight.

With CPO stand above RM 4000 and production volume increase more than 30%, next Q result certainly will deliver higher EPS and enjoy dividend yield around 6%

The Group expects the average crude palm oil price to be supported and positively influenced by
the stable soybean oil prices and anticipated increase in demand of CPO due to higher biodiesel
blending mandate in Indonesia

Strong cash flow, enable jtiasa to declare high dividend

The effective tax rate for the Group is higher than the statutory tax rate of 24%. This is mainly due to certain expenses not allowable for tax deduction.