Soley based on shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24 will give topglove boost up revenue by RM 45m.

If these shipment delay cost have been booked in 3QFY2024, upcoming 4QFY2024 will purely book these RM 45m as 'extra profit'

Lets breakout RM 3.00😁

💪

Top glove continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in Sept 2024 and expects customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding by distributors, indicating that demand recovery had further gained momentum. Presently, its sales volume had strengthened 25%-30% MoM, bringing utilisation rate to 65%-70% vs. our assumption of 55% in FY25 (based on 64b pieces capacity) compared to 45% in 3QFY24. Recall, it has previously highlighted that the bulk of a shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24.

2. It is optimistic that ASPs are expected to inch up gradually, potentially by 5%-15% or USD0.80 - USD1.50 per 1,000 pieces due to the uptick in demand and mitigation against the appreciating MYR against USD.

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/08/20/ncia-secures-rm31-38-billion-in-penang-investments-for-h1-2024/#:~:text=The%20Northern%20Corridor%20Implementation%20Authority%20(NCIA),%20together%20with%20the%20Malaysian

Why US 115 billion or RM 492 billion is possible by 2030, cumulative 6 year period translate to about 85 billion per year.

Just first half 2024, Penang already secure RM 31 billion investment.....

GEORGE TOWN: The Northern Corridor Implementation Authority (NCIA), in collaboration with the Malaysian Investment Development Board (Mida), has secured RM31.38 billion in investments for Penang during the first half of 2024.

NCIA chief executive Mohamad Haris Kader Sultan said that this substantial investment demonstrates strong investor confidence in the long-term prospects of the Northern Corridor Economic Region (NCER), particularly in Penang

NCIA and Mida secure RM31.38 billion in investments for Penang

Penang is looking to attract US$115 billion (about RM492 billion) in investments by 2030 by tapping into the front end. However, it needs to upgrade the current infrastructure to meet the rising demand for water and electricity first.

A massive overhead power transmission line is expected to be ready by the end of the year to help meet the growing electricity demand. This new transmission line, part of a 275 kV project, will deliver a capacity of 2,000 MW from the mainland to Penang Island.

Currently, the island’s peak demand is around 800 to 1,000 MW. The new capacity will also support upcoming developments, such as Silicon Island and the industrial area expansion.

Besides needing more energy, the state is tackling a critical water shortage. The spike in water demand between 2019 and 2023 has strained resources, coinciding with the semiconductor boom.

The state has committed RM1.18 billion to water infrastructure projects to address this issue and ensure a stable supply until 2030. A stable supply of water and electricity is vital for the semiconductor industry, as even brief outages can lead to millions of dollars in losses.

KWP accumulate more harta share

KWP accumulate more topglove share

major shareholder accumulate more kossan share

breakout RM 2.00

Beware, major shareholders continue trim down his stake

Malaysia’s gloves export volume surged 66% MoM and 105% YoY in Aug, outpacing the growth in July (+12% MoM; +43% YoY). The latest export volume is even 34% higher compare to pre-pandemic 2-years monthly average number indicating that the recovery momentum of global gloves demand remains healthy.

Malaysia’s gloves export volume surged 66% MoM and 105% YoY in Aug, outpacing the growth in July (+12% MoM; +43% YoY). The latest export volume is even 34% higher compare to pre-pandemic 2-years monthly average number indicating that the recovery momentum of global gloves demand remains healthy.

USD strength further to RM 4.27 due to global tension and fed hint no rush to cut rate.

topglove earnings recovery is strongly supported by increase volume loaded, plant utilization rate and higher ASP forward

USD strength further to RM 4.27 due to global tension and fed hint no rush to cut rate

War in fact will spur higher demand for healthcare, glove is needed

healthcare services are often considered defensive, increase volume sold, plant utilisation and ASP hike are main catalyst to propel earning recovery back to prepademic earning.

Better invest in defensive healthcare related stock, glove is essential and stiff China competition is easing due to upcoming 50% tax levy in 2025 and 100% tax levy in 2026

ASP gradually to increase 20% from current USD 19/k to USD 23/k

US port workers and operators reach deal to end East Coast strike immediately
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729015

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/04/ringgit-weakens-against-the-greenback

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/04/recovery-in-sight-for-top-glove-despite-challenges

Top glove always follow its rule to announce date of release Q result by given 1 week ahead notification in bursa. These practices is also similar happen to SUNWAY and SUNCON

ASP gradually to increase 20% from current USD 19/k to USD 23/k

Utilities stock particular PBA is safe heaven in time of market volatility due to essential water, while still enables investors to enjoy both dividend yield and EPS growth due to water traffic rate hike and unstoppable increase water consumption

Indications are pointing to a strong demand recovery moving into 4QCY24 and CY25 that will exceed our previous assumptions, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors. Specifically, there has been uptick in orders over the past two quarters. The rise in demand comes as the inventories of major distributors across all regions have returned to normal levels. Case in point - HARTA expects to hit sales volume of 2.2b pieces/month in 2HFY25. Already, HARTA has seen 1QFY25 orders hitting close to 2b pieces per month compared to 1.5b-1.8b pieces per month in 4QFY24 and 3QFY23. TOPGLOV is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in June 2024 and expect customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors, indicating early signs of potential recovery in demand. It has seen sales order rising 25%-30% MoM. Tell-tale signs of predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period of time to eliminate competitors) have diminished. Specifically, glove players under our coverage have seen their ASPs rising over the past two quarters, potentially implying demand is on the path to a recovery boosted by order replenishment.

Indications are pointing to a strong demand recovery moving into 4QCY24 and CY25 that will exceed our previous assumptions, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors. Specifically, there has been uptick in orders over the past two quarters. The rise in demand comes as the inventories of major distributors across all regions have returned to normal levels. Case in point - HARTA expects to hit sales volume of 2.2b pieces/month in 2HFY25. Already, HARTA has seen 1QFY25 orders hitting close to 2b pieces per month compared to 1.5b-1.8b pieces per month in 4QFY24 and 3QFY23. TOPGLOV is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in June 2024 and expect customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors, indicating early signs of potential recovery in demand. It has seen sales order rising 25%-30% MoM. Tell-tale signs of predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period of time to eliminate competitors) have diminished. Specifically, glove players under our coverage have seen their ASPs rising over the past two quarters, potentially implying demand is on the path to a recovery boosted by order replenishment.

bought harta at 2.81

Bargain Hartalega & Kossan
Hartalega will need convincing strength above the 100-day ma (RM3.06) to fuel further upside towards RM3.30, the 123.6%FP (RM3.43) and 138.2%FP (RM3.68) ahead, while downside risk is capped by the 76.4%FR (RM2.66). Kossan need a confirmed breakout above the 200-day ma (RM2.06) to enhance upside momentum towards the 100-day ma (RM2.19), RM2.33 and 123.6%FP (RM2.42) going forward, while the 61.8%FR (RM1.79) and lower Bollinger band (RM1.71) cushions downside.

Bargain Hartalega & Kossan
Hartalega will need convincing strength above the 100-day ma (RM3.06) to fuel further upside towards RM3.30, the 123.6%FP (RM3.43) and 138.2%FP (RM3.68) ahead, while downside risk is capped by the 76.4%FR (RM2.66). Kossan need a confirmed breakout above the 200-day ma (RM2.06) to enhance upside momentum towards the 100-day ma (RM2.19), RM2.33 and 123.6%FP (RM2.42) going forward, while the 61.8%FR (RM1.79) and lower Bollinger band (RM1.71) cushions downside.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank is not in a rush to rapidly cut rates.

Better invest in defensive healthcare related stock, glove is essential and stiff China competition is easing due to upcoming 50% tax levy in 2025 and 100% tax levy in 2026

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank is not in a rush to rapidly cut rates.

Better invest in defensive healthcare related stock, glove is essential and stiff China competition is easing due to upcoming 50% tax levy in 2025 and 100% tax levy in 2026

healthcare services are often considered defensive, increase volume sold, plant utilisation and ASP hike are main catalyst to propel earning recovery back to prepademic earning.

healthcare services are often considered defensive, increase volume sold, plant utilisation and ASP hike are main catalyst to propel earning recovery back to prepademic earning.

It need to breakout RM 2.60 to resume uptrend toward RM 3.00 and thereafter before next upcoming Q3 EPS 15sen

Very funny, what so happy about strength in RM? Go check whether if there is any consumer price decrease in the market? Check whether properties price decrease? Check whether any car price decrease?

In contrary, when RM on weakness, all price increase effectively to so call reflect increase input cost, so happy so what. Bursa mostly down as most companies is exporter, only small fraction is net importer, so, their earning will be lower next.

Newest but emptiest mall in Selangor? Why like this? KSL Esplanade Mall Walking Tour [4K]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8tIxEWCy-Y

ESSB foreign translation gain RM 147m mean ESSB have big exposure in USD account during April-july period. These translation will become loss as USD exchange rate tumbling after July from RM 4.70 to RM 4.12 now. ESSB export 83% of its product in USD denominated

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/09/30/soft-steel-prices-a-challenge-for-hiap-teck

Additionally, the scheduled completion of ESSB’s hot rolled coil plant – expected by the fourth quarter – will enhance the group’s product offerings in both domestic and export markets.

Remark: HLB research failed to recognized that HRC selling price is at multiyear lowest level, HRC product price is in severe winter
https://htgrp.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Analyst-Presentation-4QFY24_31-Jul-2024-Final.pdf

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/09/30/soft-steel-prices-a-challenge-for-hiap-teck

HLIB Research said the results had beat its expectations. The showing accounted for 114.5% of the research firm’s estimate, due mainly to a better-than-expected contribution from joint-venture firm Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd (ESSB).

Remark: Extreme bias HLB research to omit ESSB profit is mainly due to UNREALISE foreign translation gain RM 147m, which could reverse in next Q result due to significant weakness in USD currency.

Next month topglove will likely record maiden turnaround profit

Topglove highlight
1. The Group is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in Sept 2024 and expects customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding by distributors, indicating that demand recovery had further gained momentum. Presently, its sales volume had strengthened 25%-30% MoM, bringing utilisation rate to 65%-70% vs. our assumption of 55% in FY25 (based on 64b pieces capacity) compared to 45% in 3QFY24. Recall, it has previously highlighted that the bulk of a shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24.

2. It is optimistic that ASPs are expected to inch up gradually, potentially by 5%-15% or USD0.80 - USD1.50 per 1,000 pieces due to the uptick in demand and mitigation against the appreciating MYR against USD. However, due to the lag impact, ASP increases will only be felt gradually starting from Nov-Dec CY24. We believe predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period to eliminate competition) have diminished as Chinese players’ utilization hit >90% While TOPGLOV is silent on existing ASP, we estimate every USD1 change impacts earnings by below 2%. We conservatively assumed ASP of USD20/1,000 pieces in our earnings model.

3. The group highlight that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement which currently accounts for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix. As an indication, TOPGLOV has seen its volume sales from the US market raising 20% YoY to account for 15% in 9MFY24 compared to pre-pandemic average of 20%-30%.

Topglove highlight
1. The Group is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in Sept 2024 and expects customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding by distributors, indicating that demand recovery had further gained momentum. Presently, its sales volume had strengthened 25%-30% MoM, bringing utilisation rate to 65%-70% vs. our assumption of 55% in FY25 (based on 64b pieces capacity) compared to 45% in 3QFY24. Recall, it has previously highlighted that the bulk of a shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24.

2. It is optimistic that ASPs are expected to inch up gradually, potentially by 5%-15% or USD0.80 - USD1.50 per 1,000 pieces due to the uptick in demand and mitigation against the appreciating MYR against USD. However, due to the lag impact, ASP increases will only be felt gradually starting from Nov-Dec CY24. We believe predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period to eliminate competition) have diminished as Chinese players’ utilization hit >90% While TOPGLOV is silent on existing ASP, we estimate every USD1 change impacts earnings by below 2%. We conservatively assumed ASP of USD20/1,000 pieces in our earnings model.

3. The group highlight that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement which currently accounts for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix. As an indication, TOPGLOV has seen its volume sales from the US market raising 20% YoY to account for 15% in 9MFY24 compared to pre-pandemic average of 20%-30%.

Hiaptek result is almost due to ESSB UNREALISE foreign translation gain RM 147m (remark: these foreign translation gain is due to ESSB trading USD account which is at highest strength against RM during April-July period. As much as 87% of ESSB steel are export oriented, therefore, most of earning are USD denominated, only 17% is local sale in Msia.
https://htgrp.com.my/corporate-presentation/

Added more topglove at 1.00

Penag Perak treated water transfer is wake up call for all Penang to face reality that treated water is expensive, water traffic need higher hike

Yup, Penang rich, PBA shouldn't give subsidy to Penang domestic water anymore. Water traffic rate cannot be national second lowest anymore. It should earn mote profit in order to built more water treatment, built more dam to conserve rain raw water, replace old pipe to decrease 26% non revenue water

1. The Group is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in Sept 2024 and expects customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding by distributors, indicating that demand recovery had further gained momentum. Presently, its sales volume had strengthened 25%-30% MoM, bringing utilisation rate to 65%-70% vs. our assumption of 55% in FY25 (based on 64b pieces capacity) compared to 45% in 3QFY24. Recall, it has previously highlighted that the bulk of a shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24.

2. It is optimistic that ASPs are expected to inch up gradually, potentially by 5%-15% or USD0.80 - USD1.50 per 1,000 pieces due to the uptick in demand and mitigation against the appreciating MYR against USD. However, due to the lag impact, ASP increases will only be felt gradually starting from Nov-Dec CY24. We believe predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period to eliminate competition) have diminished as Chinese players’ utilization hit >90% While TOPGLOV is silent on existing ASP, we estimate every USD1 change impacts earnings by below 2%. We conservatively assumed ASP of USD20/1,000 pieces in our earnings model.

3. The group highlight that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement which currently accounts for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix. As an indication, TOPGLOV has seen its volume sales from the US market raising 20% YoY to account for 15% in 9MFY24 compared to pre-pandemic average of 20%-30%.

Penang launches incentives to attract chip design firms, engineers

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 28): The Penang government on Saturday launched an incentive programme to attract chip design firms and engineers to the Bayan Lepas Industrial Park and designated surrounding area.

The ‘Penang Silicon Design @5km+’ zone will provide annual subsidies worth up to RM2 million over three years, according to a statement from Invest Penang. The incentives will be available to both local and foreign integrated circuit (IC) design firms based in Malaysia.

“As Penang continues to attract more strategic investors, there is a need to establish conducive facilities that can accommodate high-value activities in Penang,” said Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.


Penang is home to some of the largest global electrical and electronics companies, including semiconductor giants Intel and Infineon Technologies, as well as major electronics manufacturers such as medical device maker B Braun and power tool company Bosch.

The state also already hosts 28 local and foreign companies related to IC design. To lure more investments, Penang had also previously launched the IC Design and Digital Park and Chip Design Academy, both in May.

Penang has committed RM60 million to propel the latest initiative forward, and the state government is asking for a matching grant of RM60 million from the federal government, Invest Penang said.

The incentives include up to full subsidies for rent, utilities, and parking at state-owned properties, as well as for the use of certain equipment and tools at shared incubation spaces and stakeholder facilities.

To ensure the success of the Penang Silicon Design @5km+, the initiative is governed by an executive council. An advisory panel, consisting of industry representatives, academia and government agencies, will advise and provide recommendations to the council.

By the end of 2024, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is expected to officiate state-owned GBS TechSpace, a 36,000 sq ft facility designed to accommodate up to eight IC design companies and at least 300 IC design engineers.

“At the very heart of our digital economy growth are the chips that power digital technologies,” underscoring the importance of the semiconductor and IC design industry, said Digital Minister Gobind Singh Deo. “We must take concrete steps to maintain our mark in this sphere

"In view of the Honourable High Court's findings of the breaches by the defendant of Section 317A of the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007, Section 213 and Section 218 of the Companies Act 2016, the company shall consult its solicitors on the next course of action in relation to lodging complaints to the SC and to SSM respectively," it said.

Hartalega and two of its subsidiaries, Hartalega Sdn Bhd and Mun Health Product (India) Pvt Ltd, filed the civil suit against Danaraj in Dec 30, 2020, alleging that he set up a competing business using Mun Health Product's resources during his tenure with Hartalega.

According to Hartalega's 2019 annual report, Danaraj, held the position of executive director from July 4, 2011 until July 1, 2020.

He was in charge of the subsidiaries in China and India, where he was also an equity partner.

HIAPTEK result in actual was boosted by unrealize forex gain RM 145m, which if without these gain will only record small profit only. Take note these unrealize forex gain is till end July which USD is still holding strong above RM 4.70.

Eastern steel currency gain may reverse to loss as USD have tumbling from RM 4.70 to RM 4.12 now