Nikmon: I think they are finalising the restructuring plan. should be by this month.

This counter too many retailers. Need to wait for restructuring to finalise before insti comes back.

If manage to get the restructuring done, sure winner

Stockjobber/OTB/Zhangzuode

Thank you for your insight.
I personally think that the current wuhan virus epidemic may hinder oil price, but its temporary. If you plot oil price against other major virus outbreak, there were relatively minor movement.

On new job orders, eventually Petronas will still need to roll out more new contracts. Their view is not for 1 year, but for the next five year. You cant draw oil in a day. Lol

But my final take is this is for the long run, you cannot flip this in a month.

I think we have to take into account the fundamental aspect of the company performance as well.

Following the completion of the exercise, at minimum, the company will pay off 170mil in debts. Inclusive of restructuring efforts of its outstanding debts, the company will save up to 18mil in interest savings. Based on latest annual report, this would translate into around 22mil int exp per year.

Now, if the company manages to increase utilization this year, they will return to the black by end of the year.

Any inputs?

The company has really turnaround. But with current balance sheet, it takes another 2 years atleast fort them to have a positive RE.

Until then, institutional investors wont even look at them.

my personal take, missed out on the fact that they added 40% capacity, they should give crazy discount on those new capacity.

In total happy with their Operating cash flow, from negative to mammoth RM340m YoY.
Shrinking debt also a good sign.

Looking at core profit should be around 270m on write-off and impairments. looking good.

orang kuat - full year or quarter?

ks55 - he needs money for leasing company lor, AA injected 2bn recently wat/support market price/code sharing U.S.

it doesnt really mean he's bearish on his own company

Thanks for the heads up Rahza.

JJChan - Why after 4?

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=193631&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

where got koyak? You sure? see the link.

both net profit and OCF positive 9M16.

Funny la you. Hahahaha, like seriously.

Howard498 - I know, just bouncing the idea. thought this forum is for that.

can push 0.80?

Good profit from plantation business maybe?

steven20 - Ok ok

Rahza - again its a turnaround story, which implies improvement in company's operation. Even if AAX have enough cash to pay dividend i dont think they can, since RE is in the red. Unless classified as special dividend. Better for the company to pare down its debt first rather than paying dividend. If they inject their planes into the leasing company even better.

Did you track CIMB TP? Price shoot up to 40sen also still maintain 19sen, last report was in mid December, they still havent adjusted the current ASK/RPK figures. Without adjustment, I dont think the figure is still reliable. Your argument on possibility of aircrash cant be justified, why AirAsia is doing fine then? even when QZ/GMT report happen, see the price now? IB tend to adjust price according to current share price just to take care of their head, even if they felt otherwise.

JN88 - why Holland is bad? can you explain?

Rahza, This year core net profit will be positive. infact. 9M16 net profit already RM192m, the company need to lose RM200m in 4Q16 to make a loss which is highly doubtful. USDMYR in 4Q15 was at 4.28, 4Q16 is about 4.32, insignificant impact, plus they already hedged for their USD exposure. Jet fuel at 62 in 4Q15, 4Q16 is around 65, combined with hedged should be close to 4Q15 figures. You can check my fact, please correct me where im wrong. Now the only downside to 4Q16 is the margins. The fact that 4Q is the best travelling time, airlines wont have a hard time selling this ticket which in turn wouldnt affect its margin too much if any. Plus, MAS isnt that stupid anymore even with added capacity pricing shouldnt be as crazy back in 2014-2015.

And ofcourse, they couldnt pay dividend with previous kind of cash flow generation, is a turnaround play, want dividend play bluechips counter.

Year Price %
2013 1.250 NA
2014 1.010 -19.2%
2015 0.645 -36.1%
2016 0.185 -71.3%
2017 0.370 100.0%


On average numbers quoted is at early january.
You see, AirAsia and AAX have a different ball game, i bet all sifus here knows that.

Reckon price level similar to Jan 15 wouldnt be a problem this year.

Newbie here, my two cents.
1. The company has been able to turnaround quite drastically since Ben helm the CEO seat.
2. Compared FY15 and FY16, top line grew by on average 25%, just a rough figure I got.
3. Though cost increase about the same no thanks to MYR and Fuel cost.
4. What amazes me is that the company have been paring down its debt from its OCF! So what it does for Equity holder is that it magnifies equity. (A: L +E), Liability gets lesser would lead to bigger contribution to equity.
5. I say this round FY16 net profit would be around RM350m –RM400m. (9M16 already RM192m). and 4Q16 performance wouldnt run to far from 4Q15 since Fuel and Ringgit would likely increase its cost.
6. RM3.7m too litlle though for 4Q, dont you think so?

english please.

I think based on the seasonally good quarters (1Q &4Q), Cheap oil, and Better Ringgit (Albeit at the end of 1Q), AAX would record a positive OCF. I would say price should run up quite a bit in the next few weeks. this provide opportunity for a short term play.

But the long term play also looks good as well, ringgit improving, oil relatively stable, plus no capex this year! (no additional plane in 2016, 2 slotted in 2017). Correct me if im wrong.

I'm confident AAX would perform this year, pray no more airlines disaster and ISIS remains minimal in our region.

by looks of it this counter gone ady. bye

Dont be too optimistic on this counter, they have always been leveraging on
MAS. On other concession business, What other concession that you are referring to? Mind to elaborate STUPIDPUNCAKKPS? The 110m plus they got is just to clear they debt. so ya not much left for acquisition.

brahims catering is the major earners for brahims holdings, brahims will lose 49% of the company, get the picture? earnings will be bleak going forward (irregardless of larger income) from brahims catering.

Rizerlee. sugar refinery dead.

I think they are banking on their Halal brand, watch this space

Forex loss on borrowings going to be around 350m - 400m (Vs 650m qoq) this time. Nonetheless, its gonna be net profit, pretty sure of it. Revenue gonna be lower (lower fuel surcharge revenue, albeit higher revenue from ticket sales due to higher average fare). Cost wise, since fuel expense cut by almost 20- 30% to around USD80-90/bbl, pretty sure fuel expense gonna drop to 450m - 500m (Vs 620m qoq). Do the math.

i think core profit will surpassed last year! anticipating more than RM140m. sure rocket high after result. Buy Buy Buy

Contract discussion extended, but think Brahims will still get reasonable margins (albeit lower). Good time to accumulate.

The land deal completed before 1st April la. so your arguments is not relevant. Please get your facts right. @ks55

yes, true, 20% out of net operating profit would bring out around 0.03 sen this year.

I think they expecting dividend. historically, AA give dividend after 1Q

AA is Moving its aircraft to its leasing house, AA will have a leaner balance sheet soon. So you can see AA debt drops as the transition progress. AA have close to 130 aircraft in its balance sheet, so all you sceptics can count how much AA balance sheets can improve.

On the jet fuel play, its a no brainer, last year jet fuel contributes to 60% of operational cost @USD122. this year effective cost @USD88, ~30% drop.

On yield, do you guys noticed Tony is anticipating load factor going down? this is not due to QZ incidents alone, this is due to AA trying to increase its yield (they have to) since they remove surcharge already.

Net net basis, AA is still the best play to Jet fuel drop. In regards to USD appreciating against Ringgit, they already hedge their USD loans, so no issue. The only immediate problem is AirAsia Indonesia, consumer sentiment is still severe.

Going forward, with all the capacity cuts to let existing capacity mature, dont you think it will be good for AAX?

AA is planning to list their leasing arm, any thought on what will that bring AA balance sheet?