Finally some IB willing to peak over the Q4 horizon to give a more justified analysis

if you track the fund house report in terms of their top holdings of Supermax equity

AffinHwang = 30th Apr 4.1% while in 31st Mar 2.3%, up by almost 1.78x

RHB = 31st Apr 8.23% while in 31st Mar 5.71%, up by almost 1.44x. Back in Mar, their top holding was MBB but by Apr, it is Supermax on number 1 spot

That speaks a lot

The Sign... 8.88....increased by 0.68sen

the predicted prices by KYY and other IBs are based on the estimates of Q4's outlook which will be tested when its results are out and also those of TG's nxt we.............but beyond that Q4 horizon, it is a LOT LOT BIGGER .....so dont give up hope!!

i think another proxy might buy today to make it +positive....

@freetospeak I m hoping Epf and foreign funds acquiring. I hope foreign funds are coming back in after many months of net outflow

@Chief99... The earlier director that bought is his nephew... No need big volume oso signal strength loud enough already lol

@chief999... The sign is already very clear... Just that it cannot be too revealing or else will seek trouble

Dato Seri himself buying via proxy

@chief999 @freetospeak..... DSST's proxy helping him to
buy

Unfortunately sbb has always been the Cinderella amongst the other 3 siblings..... just hv patience.

@total7...you dont need to have gut feel for this...just check the facts....when they started holding the SBB shares in their portfolio, when the their fund report was made, and when they released their analyst report of the target price....

Also look at Affin Hwang's report on the target price, and also what quantity % quantity they are hoarding. Check Kenanga's report and see what they hold.....

@freetospeak... The funds in Singapore in SGD like eastspring,lion, is holding TP and Kossan in their top 10 portfolio... they hv even bigger resources than those here to average up

Nikkei is up... Get ready

@chief999, will message to you a copy

this 20% spare fund is around 50mil in cash back in Mar/Apr....for them to continue investing. I believe other fund houses too are holding a lot of extra cash not knowing what to do.

I am not sure of EPF....very quiet lately

the 3 big fund houses Affin Hwang, BIMB, and RHB that his holding SBB in their top 10 portfolio still hoarding around 20% cash in Mar/Apr. I believe they still got capacity to continue buying.....

Total7, can find with the Fund houses

Here is some additional infor

Since Mar~April onwards, Affin hwang, rhb, and bimb have accumulated Supermx reaching until the top 10 spot in their portfolio

Others like Kenanga, MBB is holding mostly Kossan.

@yahoo128...Thanks for the info. Usd 0.06/pc or per pair is something of a contention for now... The glove industry seldom refer gloves qty in pairs... as it is ambidextrous.

Taking into consideration gradual increase in production per qtr, with Q4 = 85% capacity, Q1 and Q2, Q3 full with capacity increase....the simulated EPS/qtr is something like this

Q3 '20 = 20.11
Q4 '20 = 26.65
Q1 '21 = 30.51
Q2 '21 = 31.41

Good morning

@probability, thanks for your earlier inputs and corrections.
I believe the Q4 PAT% estimate of [775/320 = 41%] is a bit too high. Previous qtrs, it was only around 16.2%. So will use the figures by @FreetoSpeak less 0.4%, 23.57%, as there is a slight difference with PAT and PAT attributable to Shareholders

However, ASP of 0.13/pc is logical and that brings SBB's Q3 capacity utilization equivalent to about 58%. A reasonable and justifiable number.

The ASP of 0.22/pc is also good. So will use this figure to simulate the following qtrs.

Just tried applying FreetoSpeak's PAT Q4 estimate at 24%..then the Q4 simulation figures are as such;

75% utilization EPS 20.53
95% utilization EPS 26.01

If we take 85%, eps 23.2

I think the accuracy of this simulation is accuracy gradually improving. thanks for the valuable inputs and sharing....

@probabilty...thanks for correcting the info. USD 0.03/pc looks better qualified to justify Q3's production utilization estimate for SBB. This means that Q3 production equivalent is about 45~50% instead of 20~30%. If this is so, they can easily ramp up to higher than 75% within Q4.

However doing so, assuming ASP now at 0.23~30sen and production at 75%~85%, the eps will be at 13.5~16.0.

But if they can reach 90~95% within Q4, this would mean eps circa 17~18.

Here i am using the PAT% with reference to Q3's. So I think FreetoSpeak's PAT% forward estimate will be more accurate.

summarizing the EPS estimate for Q4....

@FreetoSpeak analysis 20.0~34.2

@Wok analysis 22~24.7

Historical reference, based on 2003 capacity and today's, 34.6 sen

@Probability..actually incoterms factor for CIF is not much, usually 2~5%. However at DDP and OBM, that can be big depending on country.

@Proabability.....now we are quite sure that OEM Ex Factory ASP is USD 0.06/pc .... this makes it around MYR 26.5sens/pc at Ex Factory.

If DDP, CIF, and OBM factor.....MYR 40sen/pc is quite realistic

@probability...another angle to test this is based on historical results during the SARs period of 2002 until 2004. Of course today's Covid is a lot worse, but back then, SARs was the most terrible.

That time, SBB's EPS for 2003 alone was 38sen p.a. Depending on which 4 trailing qtrs...it range between 30~40sen. At that time, their production capacity was 3 billion gloves p.a. and dato announced claimed that by mid 2004, they will have 5 billion.

Today, their capacity is at circa 21billion+10%...an increase of about 4.7x of their production back then. Lets assume it runs at 75%, by proportional estimates.....the EPS per qtr is already 34.6 sen. Of course there are other variable factors too such as inflation, economies of scale, severity of this pandemic etc.

What this comes to based on historical estimate, Q4 EPS above 20sen is realistic. With this, i assume many good investors here can easily deduce its real value.

@Probability....nice.

It only mean one thing here....that q4 will be another bumper and the @FreetoSpeak's eps estimate of 20sen and higher is really achievable....with a more than 50% probability i think.

My estimates were based on realistic production capacity [bottom up calculation]...but the utilization level is based on a justifiable assumption of 75% and the ASP within a rational range..which is also justifiable and not too unreasonable. From the results of this range, we can see that the mean is around 22~24sens in Q4. The max is around 50sens which i think would be unrealistic for Q4, but not for Q1 '21 and Q2 '21....

i think the fund houses might be making another correction again ....lets see

Freetospeak... Yes... And also difficult to be precise... What was the asp u applied?

Wok probability....there can be a lot of contention with this ASP.

There are different FOREX, and glove types.....but my check from sales sites, estimates from friends, indicate a range between 20~70sens. However, this data is not the forward information included w price increase. if we play around the ASP based on min, max, and median....can get a range. This range can be wide...from min eps10sen/qtr...to max almost 50sen/qtr...

at 50sen/qtr, I dont think it would be so realistic. But at worst, 10sen/qtr it also wont realistic too as we know Q4 will be sure to be higher. But how high? So at mean, 22~24sen/qtr [..after including the +10% capacity increase].

This jives well with FreetoSpeak's earlier estimate.......Also it supports the directors act to buy at such a high price.

What is certain in this forward estimates is their number of shares, and roughly their production capacity +10%. The rest...are variables that would require testing.

freetospeak...there will be a time lag due to logistics/inventory if we base the assumption from production output. My estimate around 4~8 weeks lag but, eventually it will catch up and average out over the Qtr.

I am not so sure if they were really running 75% capacity utilization in the past qtrs especially Q3. With the revenue at 447.247 billion, using ASP either from min 20sen~max60sen, over max capacity of 21.75 billion +10%....it wont come to 75%. Assuming ASP 10/pc, at max it comes to around 49% utilization per qtr in Q3.

i guess they might have stated the utilization at a point in time, or at its peak of the month. I can send you the excel file to test the assumptions

yes i have read the report....some information is obtained from it. However, it doesn't indicate much on Q4 production utilization and ASP...this we still have to make a guess.

probability...pls feel free to correct if there are some wrong assumptions made...

31Dec 2018, reported production capacity at 21billion p.a. So per qtr production capacity circa 5.4 billion pcs

Q3 Sales Rev/asp/5.4biliion. Depending on how much the asp is used, ranging between 23~60sens, you can find the utilization level. It should come to about between 20~30%...which means that they have a lot of room to raise production output in Q4.

They may have drawn down their inventory, but production will still have to run and fill it back. Right now, i don't think they can fill it back.

I just take 75% production utilization for q4. no plant can easily ramp up production from 30% up till 100% within a week or month. Furthermore, we are averaging over 3 months. Thus, 75% is rather good if not excluding capacity expansion.

75% x 5.4billion x asp = Q4 rev. Of course, the contention here would be the ASP which can range based on FOREX and individual buyers.

For their profit, i don't think they can be much change. So if we refer to rev Q3/Prof %, at 15.9%...this we can est their Q4's profit. They have 13,109,963 shares...so it comes to be about 22.51 sens

I hope i did not make a mistake in the calculations....if so, please feel free to correct. thanks.

Coming from an operational angle of estimating. Based on Q3's report, their production capacity utilization is only around 20~30%. This is based on a production capacity of 21 bil gloves p.a. reported in dec 2018. Regardless of inventory draw down, production will still have to run and have it's level will have to be replenished.

Q4 alone, on average i think they can achieve production utilization of 75%. I don't think there is room to stock inventory judging from their order pipeline and also draw down made last qtr.

With 75% production capacity utilization, asp at circa 40sen, and Profit% based on Q3's, my estimate comes to around EPS 22~23sen for Q4. This is very close to those made by FreetoSpeak and it is conservative.

I guess the director's buying back is not only to show support, but have basic fundamentals to it. By now, they would have already known their production run and utilization levels as it is report accurately weekly and monthly. Also they would already have known their forward production schedule to make such a call to at 6.42 and 7.73.