icst1975

icst1975 | Joined since 2014-12-15

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2020-06-24 18:52 | Report Abuse

Comparison of REVENUE with GHLSYS :

Revenue should perhaps be compare with a much bigger and longer listed peers, GHLSYS.
1. REVENUE’s net profit margin is a lot higher, about 15% of its gross revenue than GHLSYS which had a low profit margin of only about 8%. In past years.
2. REVENUE’s return of share holder equity (ROE) is also much higher at 10 – 15% compared to GHLSYS whose ROE has been rather low at 6.0% - 7.5%
3. GHLSYS had been trading at a PE of 50x to 85x in the last 5 years whilst REVENUE, listed in 2018, had been trading at PE of 20x to 50x
4. REVENUE is a growth company. Future profit is forecasted to grow significantly. Below is analyst forecasted profit and future PE.
Year 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F
Profit forecast,mln 6.8 8.7 10 13.9 15.9
Profit Growth p.a. 28% 11% 39% 14%
PE at shr price RM1.21 50 36 31
5. REVENUE is growing and innovating to provide a new generation online payment platform whereas GHLSYS seems to be lagging behind basing largely on old generation EDC’s .

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2020-06-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

Green Packet Berhad, an investment holding company, researches, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes wireless networking and telecommunication products, networking solutions, and other technology products and services in Malaysia and internationally.
Forecast Cash Runway: GPACKET has sufficient cash runway for 1.2 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 11.8% each year.
RISK ANALYSIS
1. Earnings have declined by -57.25% per year for the past 5 years. GPACKET is currently unprofitable.
2. Very large share dilution due to WB conversion. Still another 350m WB that would be converted into ordinary shares.
3. GPACKET has sufficient cash for 1.2 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at past historical rates of 11.8% each year due to losses.
4. Among the top shareholders, Kendall Court Capital Partners Ltd was the only Institutional shareholder. However, Kendall Court had also completely sold out its 10% share-holding . No announcement was made in Bursa Malaysia as Kendall Court was disposing Gpacket shares in May- early June 2020. Note: This would appear to be against Bursa regulation.
VALUATION
1. PE Ratio: GPACKET is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Communications industry average.
2. Price to Book Ratio: GPACKET is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.4x) compared to the MY Communications industry average (0.9x). That is base on Price to Book ratio valuation, Gpacket it is about 2.7 times as expensive compare to an average profitable company in the same industry.

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2020-06-24 13:25 | Report Abuse

"errrrr tencent just partnered with them?"

We need to ask ourselves the following questions .

(1) If there is an important business partnership which had been formally sealed, a partnership which is going to transform the Company's future business performance, why was there no formal announcement in Bursa Malaysia? Why were there no announcement at the official Gpackage Berhad Investor relationship section as an important Announcement ?

(2) Why were so many exciting business announcements in April and May that were actually paid news advertisement announcement that appeared in News media like Star where all non subscribers can see them? Many other news media like Sun Daily, etc , read the advertisement announcement which are not copy right and then report again and it appears in many other news media.

In respect of tencent, I think it might be a deal which is at no loss to tencent. Many other companies may also be able to sign up a deal with Tencent to use their technology. I guess the more the better for Tencent. Why not ? Question is can Gpacket turn into a profit making business.

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2020-06-24 12:43 | Report Abuse

Would it be likely that big projects worth tens or even hundreds of millions come to company which could not even manage its finance properly over a decade ? Can such company win big gov't projects?

I think if you are in charge of selecting a suitable company to partner with or to execute your project, you would choose a financially strong company?

Such a Company would have to prove from smaller projects and gradually perform better and better. This will take years even if they can transform themselves .

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2020-06-24 12:31 | Report Abuse

Only less than 2 months ago, the Kendall Court story was one of the boost er stories for GPACKET share price and now 新加坡私募基金Kendall Court·卖完绿驰10.8%持股 !
In late 2018, GPACKET issued 450million FREE WB on the basis of 3 free WB for every 1 right share subsribed. The exercise price of WB is 40 cents.
GPACKET share price was pumped up from around RM0.60 in early May to around RM1.60 in 3rd week of May2020. WB price naturally rose correspondingly from around 30 cents to about 50 Cents when GPacket shares were at about RM1.50. Many public investors (to diffentiate them from the “wolves”) thought that warrant B would be worth about RM1.50- RM0.40 (which is the exercise price) and so they keep buying warrant B. Very high volumes of warrant B were transacted at increasingly higher price as the mother share was pump up. Owners of the warrant B who were given 3three (3) free warrants for every right share they had subscribed in late 2018 must be happily dumping to the innocent public investors. Imagine 3 free warrants B selling at RM0.45 = RM1.35 !
Some public investors rushed to convert the free warrants to ordinary shares at RM0.40 but the mother shares dropped back to RM1.0 in less than 1 trading day on 19 May and then over the next 5- 8 trading days down to 90 cent, 80 cents 70 cents...
Did any insider “wolves” convert their warrants to mother share? I think the answer is NO. I think most, if not all their free warrant-B had been dumped to the innocent public investors at RM0.40 - RM0.55. By 3 week of May 2020, the wolves were probably richer by a few hundred millions, money from the innocent public investors who had great hopes and much rosy imagination of owning the shares of a soon to be great company in the making with all the great business news (actually paid advertisement by the insiders in the news media).
Having creamed tens (if not hundred) of millions from the public investors in a matter of a few weeks, are the wolves not able to buy back some shares which have dropped back in price to below RM0.70 now ?Sure they can ! it will give the public investors a good impressions. The key question is did they converted any Warrant-B or have they dumped to the public ? If the substantial share holders (5% or more ) have converted their warrabt-B, it would be announced in Bursa. The answers is very clear. None of them have !
So watch out. Public investors, please take good care of your hard earned money when dealing with companies with very poor past performance and the future performance is yet to seen. As the CEO said not too long ago when asked point blank by business reporter, they expect to turn around in a couple of years. This was not the first time it was said over the last 10 years.

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2020-06-24 10:47 | Report Abuse

GPACKET share prices were pumped up to around RM1.50 in April - May. The WB price went up from around 20 cents to around 50+ Cents when GPacket shares were pumped up to RM1.50. During that period , many investors thought that warrant B would be worth about RM1.0 (RM1.50- RM0.40 exercise price ) and so they keep buying Warrant B. Very high volumes of warrant B were transacted. Original holders of warrant B who were given 3 FREE warran B for every right share they subscribed in late 2018 must be dumping like mad to the innocent public investors. Imagine 3 FREE warrants B sold to you at RM0.40 - to RM0.55 = RM1.20 to RM 1.65 ! What else could be more profitable ? It is not easy to make profit in a listed company let alone outstanding profit performance as you can dee in Gpacket financial performance in the last 10 years. - losing some RM650m in 8 years and some minor "profit" in 2 years.

Many public investors rushed to convert the free warrants to ordinary shares at RM0.40 but the mother shares dropped back in price to 80 cents - 70 cents.

Did the insider convert their warrants ?? I think NO . I think most, if not nearly all their warrant-B had been dumped to the public at RM0.40 - RM0.50. Now they are probably richer by a few hundred millions from all the innocent public investors. Are they not able to buy back the shares which have dropped back in price to below RM0.70 now. Sure they can ! it will give the public investors a good impressions. The key question is they have not converted any Warrant-B. The public would be contributing their hard earned money to the company.

So watch out. Public investos, please take good care of your hard earned money when dealing with companies with no proveb past credentials and whose share prices were pump up and dumped to the public.

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2020-06-24 09:21 | Report Abuse

Most of the great exciting " news release " they made in late 2019 and before mid May 2020 were Company written articles for which they had to pay advertisement fee s to be published in popular news media (e.g. Star Businees). Everyone can read these articles, not just those who subscribed to STAR , because they were paid advertisement which were opened for everyone to read. Articles investigated and written by STAR reporters are not opened for reading unless you are subscriber. YOu can only see the title and the first 2 lines.
Why do't Gpacket announced the "deals" in Bursa Malaysia or at Gpack Co. Website ? I think the reasons are obvious. Once announce in Bursa website of Company Website, they are permanaetly there are legal implications.

So take care.

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2020-06-24 09:09 | Report Abuse

Refer to "Gpacket is for medium to long term..."
Don't think it is a good idea to invest in a company which had made huge losses 8 out of the last 10 years. The management team had not changed much . It is better to wait till they turn around before considering whether it is worth investing.

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2020-06-23 22:38 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/06/23/kendall-c...

This one is a true news reported by STAR. You will find that you cannot read the whole written article unless you are a STAR subscriber.

Many important Gpacket news in past months were written articles and paid for publication as advertisements by the concerned people in STAR. Such articles (which were effectively advertisements) were not locked and can be read by anyone.

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2020-06-23 22:26 | Report Abuse

So be very careful when considering investing in company that has no proven results but "promise" rosy hope which may never materialise.

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2020-06-23 22:25 | Report Abuse

Gpacket had been losing money in eight out of the last 10 years, cumulatively losing more than RM 550 mln over that period ! ! Not so long ago, CEO said that Gpacket might be able to turn profit making in one to two years time. There had been many releases of important business News which I think were written and paid by concerned people for publication in news media (like Star Business). They definitely had played a major part in exciting the market, helping to pump up the share price in past months before the fast drop later. Many investors unfortunately had been led to butcher house.
It is time to ask the question why such important business news were not officially announced at the Gpacket Company website, under news media release section, nor were they announced in Bursa Malaysia website. Could this avoidance of potential future legal liability ? We all know that News released in News media were " forgotten" pretty soon by public.

So be very careful when considering

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2020-06-23 22:23 | Report Abuse

Gpacket had been losing money in eight out of the last 10 years, cumulatively losing more than RM 550 mln over that period ! ! Not so long ago, CEO said that Gpacket might be able to turn profit making in one to two years time. There had been many releases of important business News which I think were written and paid by concerned people for publication in news media (like Star Business). They definitely had played a major part in exciting the market, helping to pump up the share price in past months before the fast drop later. Many investors unfortunately had been led to butcher house.
It is time to ask the question why such important business news were not officially announced at the Gpacket Company website, under news media release section, nor were they announced in Bursa Malaysia website. Could this avoidance of potential future legal liability ? We all know that News released in News media were " forgotten" pretty soon by public.

So be very careful when considering investing in company that has no proven results but "promise" rosy hope which may never materialise.

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2020-06-23 22:04 | Report Abuse

Refers to " My Eg & Gpacket like abang adik lots of news .." above.

Gpacket cannot be compared in the same boat as MYEG.

Gpacket had been losing money in eight out of the last 10 years., cumulative losing about RM 550 mln of share holders money over that period ! ! Not so long ago, its CEO said that Gpacket might be able to turn profit making in one to two years time. I think it is more like a "Goreng" . Multiple release of News written and paid in news media (like Star Business) served to excite the market leading many investors to butcher house. We need to ask the question why such important business news were not announce at their
official Gpacket Company website , under news media release, nor they announced in Bursa Malaysia. I think it has to do with avoiding legal liability. News released in Newsmedia were " forgotten" pretty soon !

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2020-06-23 21:02 | Report Abuse

Base on current share price, EFORCE's PE is about 42 times. This very high PE is only justified if company has a very high and consistent profit growth. However,EFORCE shows little to no growth in its revenue and profit over the last 10 years.

EFORCE is a software solution company. Examples of other software solution companies include OPENSYS and SCICOM which are selling at about 20x and 15x PE ratios. These companies have have consistent high profit growth over the years . OPENSYS share price has increased by more than 100% in the last 1 month, but the PE is still only about 20x.

So is EFORCE current share price cheap ? I think at its current share price it is way over value !

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2020-06-23 12:38 | Report Abuse

Base on current share price, EFORCE's PE is about 42 times, whereas MYEG 's PE is only about 21 times. Base on PE multiples, EFORCE is twice as expensive as MYEG.

EFORCE is a software solution company. Examples of other software solution companies include OPENSYS and SCICOM which are selling at about 20x and 15x PE ratios. OPENSYS share price has increase by more than 100%v in the last 1 month, but the PE is still only about 20x.

So is EFORCE current share price cheap ?

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2020-06-17 18:58 | Report Abuse

If the back door listing deal does not materialise, the share price would likely drop back to the level before which was around RM0.10 +/-

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2020-06-17 18:53 | Report Abuse

Until the terms of the back door listing deal are sealed, the share value of CONNECT is higher uncertain and thus speculative.

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2020-06-17 18:51 | Report Abuse

CONNECT, however, may be a candidate for back door listing by a viable business entity.

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2020-06-17 18:46 | Report Abuse

CONNECT had continuously made losses in 8 yrs out of the last 10 years (2010 to 2019). It only made very small profit in year 2010 (1.7 m) and 2015 (2.6m). Would government give an important business Contract to a Company which is very poorly managed financially? Worth careful pondering .
I would think it has little fundamental value. Market share value is therefore purely speculative.

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2020-06-17 16:46 | Report Abuse

A more reasonable PE of 15 to 20 can be expected. This means ARBB current share price have a potential to rise by a multiplying factor of 1.5 (15/10) to 2.0 (20/10).
17/06/202

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2020-06-17 16:43 | Report Abuse

Current P/E ratio (T4Q) of ARBB base on current ordinary shares 362m is only about 3.4. This appears to be extremely low for a technology sector stock (ARBB is now classified under Technology IT sector)

Currently there are about 713m PA which are not yet converted to the ordinary shares.
At conversion of 1PA + 19 cents to 1 mother share, it would add another RM135m of cash capital to the Company. The no. of ordinary shares would increase from 362m currently to 1075m if all PA were to be converted. This would increase the PE from 3.4 to 10.0 ( 3.3 x 1075/362 ) which is still low. If company profit grows, the prospective future PE would become lower. This implies that the current share price is probably under-value by the market.
A more reasonable PE of 15 to 20 can be expected. This means ARBB current share price have a potential to rise by a multiplying factor of 1.5 (15/10) to 2.0 (20/10).

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2020-06-17 15:43 | Report Abuse

Current P/E ratio (T4Q) of ARBB base on current ordinary shares 362m is only about 3.27. This appears to be extremely low for a technology sector stock (ARBB is now classified under Technology IT sector)

Currently there are about 713m PA which are not yet converted to the ordinary shares.
At conversion of 1PA + 19 cents to 1 mother share, it would add another RM135m of cash capital to the Company. The no. of ordinary shares would increase from 362m currently to 1075m if all PA were to be converted. This would increase the PE from 3.3 to 9.8 ( 3.3 x 1075/362 ) which is still very low. If company profit grows, the prospective future PE would become lower. This implies that the current share price is probably under-value by the market.

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2020-06-17 13:02 | Report Abuse

Current P/E ratio (T4Q) is only 3.27 base on current NOSH of 362m. This is very very low for a technology sector stock (ARBB is now classified under Technology IT sector)

Currently there are about 713m PA which are not yet converted to the ordinary shares.
At conversion of 1PA + 19 cents to 1 mother share, it would add another RM135m of cash capital to the Company. The no. of ordinary shares would increase from 362m currently to 1075m if all PA were to be converted. This would increase the PE from 3.3 to 9.8 ( 3.3 x 1075/362 ) which is still very low. If company profit grows, the prospective future PE would become lower. This implies that the current share price is probably under-value by the market.

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2020-06-15 11:43 | Report Abuse

Eelniloc
In conversion to mother share, only need to top up with 19 cents.
1 PA is treated as 1 cent ( the issuing price) . So conversion to mother share at 0.20 is satisfied by tendering 1 PA plus 19 cents..

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2014-12-15 13:27 | Report Abuse

hi stkopt'r: U r so passionate about LPI, being the only investor talking about this stock? R u collecting more at RM17.00 ?