Force selling. I may buy to average down before closing

Good news for AirAsia

Subang Airport flights suspended due to haze
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015/09/26/Subang-airport-closed/

After acquiring 6.5 million shares on 11/9, Wellingtion dispose 8 hundred thousand shares this week. I am not alarm with the small disposal however, i will buy more if it fall further.

IAA will announce debt equity requirement next week. And egm for buyback proposal. However, i am holding for the next 2 months where the next quarter will be announced in middle of November. I am anticipating 13cts eps. Within 3 months, i think 1.70 is not a problem but i am looking at 2.00

Today, volume is quite big. I think Wellington or epf is the main buyer.

I have re enter AirAsia at 1.35 today. I will be holding for medium term. The margin of safety with net asset position of 1.70 will be my guidance and of course the propose buy back by AirAsia will definately be main motive.

Investeye. That is a very interesting artcle. I remember AirAsia use to hit the lowest at 2.20. Now at 1.31, there is a difference of almost 90cts. With latest proposal, I hope institutional funds will not rush to buy now. Give us retailers chance to accumulate first?

Somewhat I regret selling AirAsia after making 30% returns as latest announcement from AirAsia is very pleasing. AirAsia propose to buy 10% of it's shares in open market. I find this news very encouraging. I won't mind at all buying back my AirAsia at higher price come Monday as AirAsia will buy back from us at much later date once buyback is approve.

Muhammad, you should invest in Bimb and Takaful now. The only 2 syariah compliant finance shares and they are both doing very well too compare to non syariah banks and insurance.

I am getting dividend for both Takaful and Bimb. And both are the only syariah compliance.

Dividend plus DRP at RM3.00. Not interesting enough for retailers and institutional. Bimb should propose bonus issue and I believe they will.

IAA yet to come with any action on debt equity requirement by Indonesia authority. Until concrete action, it is best to avoid AirAsia
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600082991.jsp

zamzam22. Yes, actually i already read the latest quarter report and decide to buy immediately. I think bonus issue will be propose soon.

I start to accumulate Bimb as recent announcement of 20 billion to Valuecap. LTH is Bimb biggest stake and definately be one of Valuecap prime investment.

Less than 30 million shares traded against 81 million T4 shares. Tomorrow another 120 million shares on T4. It is very risky to hold.

IAA has only 2 weeks to compile with positive equity rule. So far IAA only come out with proposal to covert debt to equity. I don't feel good about this. Can IAA convert proposal to implementation in time with complying to rule? I doubt it. Better to dispose all my AirAsia first.

If I am not mistaken, too many contra punters are going in during opening. I feel it is time for me to take profit

I am considering taking profit first. AA going up too fast.

AA debts are hedged.

Fuel cost has drop over 50% while currency drop 18%. At current exchange rate and AA market price, Wellington and Epf are buying back at bargain.

I will not be surprise if AirAsia reach 1.70 next week. It is extremely undervalue. And with EPF and Wellington buyback, uptrend will be very quick

I will start buying Bimb if quarter report is encouraging.

gt91. Intrinsic value to me is fiction. Based on rhb-osk, AirAsia intrinsic value is 1.07.

Now that I average price are 0.95, I haven't decide what price to sell them. Since the tangible asset valued at 1.70, perhaps I shall start selling them at that price.

Tony need to be thankful with Malaysia government. Unlike India and Indonesia, Tony was not force to pay bribe and future profit to certain politician. Until today, Tony still paying heavy price for India and Indonesia routes

It's true. Tony Fernandes paid certain politician just to get approval for India route. And the same goes to Indonesia. It's open secret that the only reason Indonesia new capital ruling for airlines are cover for certain Indonesia politician asking bribe from Tony Fernandes. Only Malaysia in Malaysia Tony need not do so, it's quite surprising that Tony making so much noise for operating without need to pay bribe here.

I bought AirAsia at 1.10 and 0.79. Once hit 0.95cts, I will add more since my average buying price at 0.945 cts

Tony Fernandes used to be world 100 most influential people, no more.

So good.. I queue at 0.79 but didn't expect to match so soon. Yesterday I was a little worry but my calculation proof too be accurate.

I will wait until volume stay at 2 million shares daily before topping up my AirAsia.

I dont know how low AirAsia will go but i do know that once the volume become thin, it only means that foreign outflow has ended. So need to wait for volume to thin down

Given attractive entry price, EPF may come in.

Summary from LC Chong about GMT Research https://lcchong.wordpress.com/tag/airasia-berhad/

1. This report is a well written, but style of writing is less professional, and like “The Da Vinci Code”. Fortunately, our local analysts do not use this kind of writing style.
2. This report made some assumptions that I don’t know how to verify them. This makes me sceptical.
3. I strongly believe that based on the style of writing, GMT has its own agenda, even if GMT repeats that they are not short seller.
4. There is one Chinese proverb: “此地无银三百两”. In English: “A guilty person gives himself away by conspicuously protesting his innocence”
5. Put aside the sceptical, I learnt some new knowledge from this report too.

Actually AirAsia stand to benefit with current ringgit. Many will prefer to travel with AirAsia compare with Mas, and Mas has reduce many flights or engage price war with AirAsia. Inbound tourists from China, Singapore, Australia, Japan and Korea will only increase. We do have many advantages compare to other asian countries from world famous Langkawi, various shopping malls, convenient of travel between Thailand and Singapore. It all depends on AirAsia marketing and strategic to increase their market share. Based on current quarter, only IAA not yet profitable whereas TAA and PAA already heading towards highly profitable next year with current cheap oil. Based on world bank report, old price ideally around 57 dollar but it seems hovering much lower than expected. No reason given for Wellington selling their stake in open market when they can sell higher through direct transaction. Probable there is hidden motive doing so. My assesment is 0.76 will be bottom price if Wellington decide to sell all in open market.

Based on my calculation, AirAsia may hit 0.76 as Wellington unload their stake.

I did further research on AirAsia. Apparently for the month of June and July, Wellington was disposing and acquiring maintaining market price. However, in August, Wellington has continuously sold their shares in open market. If Wellington continuously sell their 10% and 7% stake, it will take 30 trading days.

Correction, reported sales on 19/8/2015

Wellington last reported sales of 3,317,700 shares on 17/8/2015 represent 1% of their holdings. They still have 305,958,678 shares to go. If they sell 3 million shares on each trading day, that will that another 30 trading days more.

I dont know how low AirAsia will go but i do know that once the volume become thin, it only means that foreign outflow has ended. Another counter heavy with foreign funds is Skpetro. I think only 2 counters that have 20% foreign funds. So need to wait for volume to thin down

The whole week, FF have continuously sell their stake. I expect next week will be the same considering their 20% stake in AirAsia. I will only purchase by mid of September.

It's unfortunate that AirAsia became latest victim of both short sellers and foreign funds outflow. I have postpone further purchase until FF outflow stop.

Result will be out an half from now

I think i will buy more before today's closing

I understand short sellers are pushing AAB down before quarter report announcement. They will profit. But i am speaking to those who know today's announcement is a positive one.

How many times i keep repeating AAX is separate entity.

Only AAX not turning profit. And it never will. But don't drag all other profit IAA, PAA, TAA, AAB, Tune Insurance and Tune Hotel along.

PAA also turning profit. So why spread unfound negative comments here?

Posted by STC1136 > Aug 20, 2015 10:43 AM | Report Abuse

AAB sure have profit, who said AAB will lost is really simply to make unrealistic statement here. With TAA profit of abt RM80mil ++, Tune Ins profit, almost can cover AAX lost. If really don't know, dont pretend yourself like a accountant.

Wait for report. Will be out today. Too many short sellers making round of negative comments here.

AAB nta at 1.68, market price now at 1.05. Margin of safety 30%

He is short seller in the market.

Posted by rizerlee > Aug 20, 2015 10:37 AM | Report Abuse

MMSSNew & Kakashii ,

maybe should stop argue and let today's announcement of 2Q15 speak.
report will proof who making the wrong calculation.