currently, this counter is extremely undervalued from both P&L and balance sheet perspective. A lot has been said about the ridiculously low net book value for Sungai Long land and how the NTA will shoot through the roof once Sungai Long has been revalued. Hence, I will not reinvent the wheel.

These guys have written well about SymLife:
http://equitydiary.blogspot.my/2015/09/symphony-life-deeper-look-into-its-deep.html
http://bonescythe.blogspot.my/2014/04/symlife-symphony-of-life.html
http://www.symphonylife.my/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/PDF-Symlife-August-2016-AGM-COVERAGE.pdf

Let us talk from the P&L perspective:

The main game changer here is the Star Residences project at KLCC. Profit margin is kick ass given that the land cost is ridiculously low at RM500 per sqf. I believe even with a high sales commission paid to attract overseas buyers, margin is somehow preserved at the high twenties owing to the extraordinarily low land cost.

Let us take a look at RT2 and how it impacts unbilled sales.
According to Q2'17, unbilled sales hovers at about $950M (close to $1B). This is based on 50% take up rate at RT2. According to
http://star-residences.com/assets/img/news/starnews-03.pdf
sales for RT2 has achieved more than 70%. With this announcement, I believe that unbilled sales will easily increase by additional $45M to $995M.
(Why $45M? = 300 units per Retail Tower x RM1.5M each (cheapest unit @ RM1.5M and max @ RM3M for penthouse units - being conservative, we take RM1.5M across the board) x 20% delta (between 50% vs 70% take up rate) / 2 due to 50%-50% JV) = $45M).

Of course, if they finished selling RT2 - then, unbilled sales should increase by a whopping $67.5M (same calculation per above), thus bringing it to $1.06B.

To keep things simple, unbilled sales can easily surpass $1B mark once RT2 is completely sold.

Well, can management achieved this feat? Well, they just raised the selling price at Sep'16. When a developer raised the selling price especially in such a soft market, they are confident they can complete selling the remaining units for RT2. If not, it is just suicide.

During AGM2016, management has revealed there are in the initial stages of discussion with a service operator to sell 70% of RT3. Of course, this deal is still shrouded with uncertainties. What is certain is that RT2 is now 70% sold and I am confident they can finish selling RT2 by the middle of 2017. Then, unbilled sales should hit RM1.06B.

Now, the next project in the pipeline is Union Suites with a GDV of RM0.4B. One of the takeaways from AGM2016 is that Datuk Azman Yahya has hinted that he is pretty confident the sales for Union Suites will easily surpass 80%. Why is this important? Datuk Azman Yahya has emphasized that for a project to be cashflow neutral, sales need to surpass 80% and they will not launch if he is NOT confident if sales cannot hit 80%. Now, whether his team can deliver those numbers? This is a big question mark.

Assuming if he can, then, total unbilled sales can easily hit RM1.4B (a very conservative number) for 2017. This has a big impact on share price. Assuming if Star Residences, TWY and Union Suites takes about 4 years to complete, then,

RM1.4B (unbilled sales) / 4 years x 20% net profit margin = $70M net profit / 310M shares = $0.22 EPS.
Assuming if a conversative P/E of 5 is applied = 5 x $0.22 = RM1.10.

We should be looking at a share price of RM1.00 (to be conservative).

Hence, from the current share price of $0.65, there is a potential gain of 50%.

To all Gadang loyal supporters, happy new year 2017!! Huat arr..

@ brother BlueFun, let us introduce ourself next year at Gadang AGM....

My prediction is that the share price will slowly rise in anticipation of a better quarterly result. The next 3 quarters will be extremely good to at least match last year's performance. If proven true that next quarterly result is good, then the share price will fly north. My previous experience with Gadang is that Kok Onn is honest and once he has committed openly to the press, he will follow through. Indeed, it has been a few times that management has commented that FY17 results will be as good or even better than 2016. The share price will definitely rise from now on. After 2017, then 2018 will be supported by the project wins in 2017 such as an MRT package, hospital win in cyberjaya and just maybe, the LRT project. Then , this will be bouyed by Capital City and Cyberview. With such high earnings visibility and management competency and honesty, this share will rise north. You will win only if you dare to bet big and believe.

The true winners are the ones who bought at low prices, went through the corporate exercise and still holding until today.

Steady build up in anticipation of a better quarterly result announcement in Jan 2017. If this materialised coupled with a few mega projects win, then Gadang will head north.

The warrant is already in the money ....

Happy merry Christmas everyone

Happy merry Christmas everyone ...

why share price increase when the overall market is down?

The worst part is that he bought Gadang at RM0.89 when he asked others to sell....how unethical is that ??!!

Hi all, can share the RHB research paper that mentions TP is RM1.40?

Sostupid....true to your ID, please rant elsewhere ....this forum is for sharing useful information about Gadang !!

Sostupid...if you are against Gadang, just get the hell out of here and park your money else where.

i stand behind Mr OTB

@ OTB, how do you get the fair value of RM4?

If Gadang wins the $0.5M CyberJaya Hospital project, then, its order book can easily surpass the $1B mark. Then, add on the MRT2 package - give and take - $0.8M.

Existing order book; $0.7M
Add: CyberJaya Hospital project: $0.5M
Add: MRT2 package: $0.8M
Total: $2.0B

GIven management's expectation in selecting projects, all the above should have high single digit profit margin.

@ alvinkua, I noticed that you only have 2 counters in your portfolio...Gadang + Symlife...hehehe....same like mine....

once the take up rate is translated to firm up sales, then the unbilled sales should easily surpass RM1.2B.

Let us not forget about Union Suites. Management has hinted that they are confident the sales for Union Suites will easily surpass 80%. Knowing Tan Sri Azman Yahya's style, he will not launch the project if sales does not surpass 80% since he wants each of his project to be cash flow neutral.

A gleaming year ahead for SymLife. Unbilled sales can easily be at RM1.5B.

hehehe - you won't find an issue with me...i am a die hard SymLife supporter

Back in 2015 AGM, management had promised that they will deliver record profits for 2016 and they did stand by their words. Then, in 2016 AGM, management has promised that 2017's profit will not be worst off than 2016. For me, I would place my trust with Kok Onn. Even with the poor share price (at RM0.95), I am still making a fair profit.

http://www.theedgeproperty.com.my/content/984833/symphony-life-launch-union-suites-sunway-and-wharf-mall-puchong-come-2017

@ Si Min Tan....where to get more information about their The Wharf Residence ?

I was there at the AGM. Now, most of you have heard how KYY lectured Kok Onn on how to manipulate or window dress or blow up (or whatever terms you want to use) the Q117 accounts. For me, it is pointless to shift the profit from FY16 to FY17 just because KYY wants to ensure Gadang is making profit this year compared to last year. Why should Gadang do this accounting manevour ? Just to appease the great KYY so that his golden theory of share selection can be fulfilled ? And that he stands to make more money from Gadang ?

I don't think KYY is really an investor....but more like a speculator ....a hit and run sort of speculator. KYY actually ask Kok Onn to distribute more dividends because he wants to cover the cost of his fundings. It is like he wants Kok Onn to literally Finance the cost of his borrowings so that he can borrow more to buy Gadang .

Just my conspiracy theory . I think somebody is busy collecting Gadang since it is now at RM1. Wait till they announced a significant project win and then, they will sing to a different tune .

Buying interest has returned to SymLife.

the recent drop is surely manipulated by both KYY and OTB....those without independent thinking is akin to sheep lead to slaughter...

@ 8wpwtmt8 : I don't understand your reasoning ..

can anyone share RHB write up on Gadang?

Congrats to Pisang Goreng door getting it at RM2.50

Amen to SJSoon and Victor Tan

@ hng33, are you still holding Symlife ????? What do you think of that company ? Unbilled sales of RM1B is gonna kick in...

Aiyohh...I don't wanna bad mouth anyone...but independent thinking is very important .
Once a upon a time, a prominent investor recommended Xing Guan . Between Xing Guan and Gadang, I will choose Gadang anytime of the day.

Moral of the story is : trust yourself.

I don't think Mr Koon is a terrible man. He is just suffering a typical dose of seller's remorse. I suspect he will be back at Gadang with a vengeance .

@ hng33, you nailed it !! And now is the best time for him to buy because of the shares going ex and that management is motivated to suppress the shares for the 1 week weighted average.

This is good news because the warrants exercise price is going to be filthy cheap.

Koon Yew Yin is not a simple man..in his heart, he may wanna buy even more. From both his articles, he is very impressed with what Gadang has achieved with the property division such as winning the KwasaLand deal and Laman View JV. Recall that he himself states he is confident that Gadang, being an experienced contractor, can secure a few more projects. That was written clearly in his first article after the AGM. Then, yesterday, he threw a spanner into the work and wrote that he decided to dispose because he is not confident that Gadang can maintain the profit this year FY2017 as compared to FY2016.

Well, during the AGM, management has reiterated that the profit this year FY2017 will not be worst than FY2016. This is further echoed in The Edge publication. Indeed, if you attend the AGM last year FY2015, it was mentioned that both FY2017 and FY2016 will be better than FY2015. In addition, market is expecting Gadang to win the MRT 2 package.

So, the question is :
(1): who do you believe ? Gadang's management or Mr Koon ?
(2): if Mr Koon 'S objective is cause panic sale, he has achieved his objective. He maybe quietly collecting now. Indeed, this is the best time to collect now to get the bonus warrants and bonus shares. Don't forget, Mr Koon did praise Gadang for a few times in his article. Maybe Mr Koon wants to buy more and purposely capitalise on the poor Q1 results to cause panic ??

Whatever it is , please recap on Gadang's fundamentals. It is a conglomerate with all the seeds for future growth being firmly planted .

Why the F*** it is dropping like bird shit for no good reason ??

mmm....why today Gadang drop suddenly??? i thought dividend ex-date is tomorrow??

About Mr Koon's change in his disposition...Mr Koon likes the long term growth story for Gadang but then, he is not satisfied that current (and future quarters ) EPS may not be better than prior FY2016. However, management's assurance that FY2017's profit may not be worst than FY2016 is sufficient for me.

Let me share with you my personal experience. I made losses in another counter known as GOB, a company linked to Tan Sri Desmond Lim. The phariah company goreng the shares until RM1.16 and then, let it crash. Thereafter, the company made a cash call at RM 0.50. Now, the company has sold its Batu Kawan land (crown jewel) at RM40 per square feet. That piece of land is "Wong Kam Tei"/ Golden land and is located at the exit of Penang Second link. Batu Kawan will be Penang's first mega city. EcoWorld, Paramount , Mah Sing and numerous other big boys have huge landbank at Batu Kawan . To sell this golden land at RM40 per sqf and making a gain of only RM10 per sqf (book value is RM30/per sqf) a huge insult to the shareholders especially after you have made a cash call. Furthermore, quarter in and quarter out , GOB is making huge losses. Now, the share price is languishing at RM0.30.

so, who should I blame ? I learnt alot from GOB even though it is a bitter pill to swallow. No one likes to cut losses. That is why i never got excited about WCT due to the fact that you can never make a good partnership with a crook. GOB is linked to Tan Sri and the way he destroys shareholders wealth does not make me feel excited over WCT.

also, i learn one very important lesson, that is the entry price is very important - it must be low enough to hedge against three things :
- incompetent or dishonest management,
- getting the future growth prospects wrong, and
- wrong valuation at current market price .

I am happy to report that despite rolling the losses for GOB into Gadang, overall, my entry price is still very low and I am still making profit at the current market price . and the good news is that post share split, bonus issue and bonus warrants, the overall cost will drop and it will provide me an even larger margin of safety.

So, if you can get these three things right and coupled with a low entry price, you have already won 80% of the investors out there.

Just my 2 cents take. With GST, it should be 1.2 cents take.

@klee, pisang goreng sifu have bought Gadang since it was below RM2....no matter what, even if he sells now (before bonus issue and share split and bonus warrants), he is making huge money dee.....at the end of the day, nobody can ask you to buy or sell . the decision is ultimately up to you. At the recently concluded AGM, the directors have mentioned that Gadang is for the long term. If you buy at current price, you window to sell should be at the end of FY2017 or 2018. Your money, your call. Don't resort to private attacks. This is what losers do.

Earnings*

Actually , if you wanna know whether ColdEye have sold his holdings, a simple check at SSM for the top 30 shareholders will solve this question . when ColdEye mention Gadang is fully valued, then, Gadang is fully valued relative to what ?? Gadang will experience another warning jump towards the end of FY2017...

Personally, I view the big selloff whereby the price drops until RM2.80 as a good sign. Gadang was rising rapidly for the past few months and this sell off will relieve the pressure build up in the price. By now, all the weak holders will be flushed out. Now, we have got a strong support line at RM2.80 and just waiting to scale a new "sustainable" peak.

If you buy in at RM2.80, the most important thing to ask is whether the company can sustain it's growth momentum ? For me, growth will come in from utilities and properties - especially properties-!! It is important to view Gadang as a consortium and not just a pure construction outfit .

Gadang's remaining order book stands at $600M ++ which is sufficient to last for FY2017. Management has shared via the AGM + The Edge they are bidding for $5.2B worth of projects. The most important thing is quality (versus quantity). Management has reiterated over and over again they are very selective with their bidding - their bid price is always at a premium (in exchange for quality) because they need to safeguard their margin. They will not bid just for the sake of replenishing their order books.

By the way, future winnings for Penggerang + MRT2 + LRT will definitely yield higher margins than present. THis is for sure!!! This is because management does not need to go through all the steep learning curve (i.e.; draw from previous experience) and all the machinery, labor and equipment is at the site.

Their ability to be selective is a strong testament to their strength. Given their
- huge cash resources - about $300M cash,
- strong and sound balance sheet,
- other divisions such as property and utilities,
they can afford to be hyper selective and choose high margin projects.

An example is like WCT. Felicity recently wrote that even WCT is better than Gadang. No offense. But now, what happens to WCT? Even though it has an order book of $2.xxB, their balance sheet carries $2.xxB worth of debt. At the end, the founders sell their stake to Desmond Lim. WHo is going to suffer at the end of the day? It is the minority shareholders like you and me.

For me, the story line for Gadang remains intact.
- 7 cents dividend,
- share split + warrants + bonus issue,
- winning of more construction contracts (another area that Gadang is looking into is becoming the preferred contractor for hospital),
- material contribution from utility segment @ FY2017 (40% margin),
and the main backbone for this all comes from Capital City whereby Gadang earns pure profit~!!

And above all, we got an assurance from management that FY2017's results will at least be as good as FY2016. The story line is all set and like what BlueFun mentions in his article...."just waiting for the North wind"...

@ bluefun, nice article...hahaha - the AGM gift is a nice surprise...a DIY toolset...my friend told me - it is good quality leh...

@ Cold Investor, even in The Edge article, they are trying to imply the same thing that this year's profit should be as good as last year....

Kok Pei Long was being smart....she mentioned along the line ....that this year's profit should not be worst off than last year ....have to read between the lines abit ....

I don't think I have heard wrongly because I sat right in front ...just two rows behind the corporate bigwigs from THB investment bank and Crowth Howard external auditors

@ cold investor, both the father (Kok Onn) and the daughter (Kok Pei Long) mentions that the profit this year will at least be as good as last year ....this answer came after Mr Koon recommend that the board should window dress their Q1 financials.

I remember the times when Gadang was at RM1.50, ...apini, pisang goreng , SJSoon, icon8888 and bluefun are here to support Gadang...it was a time when great and logical ideas are discussed and there is not much personal attack ....I missed those times when Gadang forum is a platform for healthy and intelligent cross fertilisation of ideas ....then, we have TKSW frog jumping in and out from RM1.80 until RM3.30....now, we have a bunch of newcomers .....let us see how long everyone will last at this forum ...heheheh....

Just dish out RM200/- and attend the AGM and address any concerns with the directors ...it is better than taking advice from the forumers.....

The moral of the story is that th
"He who buys cheap fears no fall"... Despite Gadang falling until RM2.80, yet my margin of safety still guarantees a healthy profit. Now is just waiting until share split and bonus shares and bonus warrants. The reason to hold remains intact for the next one year.