All politicians will always in denial mode despite all indicators of economy contraction in place.

A revision in budget is inevitable for 2 Half...

However, that's not equal to say you can't make money via jayatiasa. The sentiment of the market and the demand and supply would decide.

What i am suggedting is for the long term investment in the plantation sector, others certainly a better choice. The performance of the past 5 years confirmed that.

It's not essy to make money via this stock when cpo trending downward.

Oh i see. Thanks for your explanation.

In my opinion, the selling price for cpo is the same irrespective the location. Hence, jatatiasa inherited with cost disadvantages. I'm also equally worries about the OER, clear cut.... The low yield per hectar can't allow to compete in the industry

This is my opinion after studied the past 5 year annual reports of all plantation company in bursa.

Jayatiasa invariably the bottom performance category... and can be caliberated the underlying reasons

The explained why KLK, IOI, Genting Plantation, Tsh making good ROE and rewarding the shareholder even though their PE is higher... But making great capital gain for investors.

In essence, making money via under value stock can be only realized if the company is well managed and making operating profit constantly.

Jayatiasa is obviously under value if measure from NTA but not on operating performance.. it won't making you great money

Taan have got exactly similar structure like jayatiasa but making great return in both timber and palm oil businesses as against jayatiasa.

The stock price difference between the two explain the gap as heaven and hell!

If the company can't making money from the active businesses....the minorities shareholder will be at the mercy of the controlling shareholder. Small minorities can't expect concreate return in term of capital gain or dividend but rely on the hope to sell its valuable NTA.

But the ugly reality is the controlling shareholder will do nothing but continue enjoying fat salary packages.

Year after year.... Oppourtunity cost incurred... Small minorities continued its daydreaming..

If you believe in palm oil future, jayatiasa is not a best bet. Thus, the company hardly making good return to the shareholder for the past 5 years as against it similar peers in the industry.

Anyone who invested in the past 5 years can confirm my observation... Koon yew yin invested since 2013....losing big money.

Fong siling invested since 2017 must be carried paper loss at least 50% based on rm0. 50 cent today!!!

Although the company is under value at current price ranges, i noticed jayatiasa is not yield efficient as against other planters.

Take for instance, the total planted area has reached 69K hectar with average trees aging at 9 years but barely making small money in last quarter financial result as against the similar peer TSH With similar aging tree profile.

TSH just planted 42K hectar but making great money as against jayatiasa for the same corresponding period. The industry insider said the Operating efficiency for TSH is 23MT per hectar as against 19MT.

All these information derived from the annual report and quarterly report.

Bursa is heading to 1200 is inevitable for the 1H 2019.....

Usually, mediac pay interim dividend in Dec and final dividend in Jun

Ex7121,

They pay two times dividend a year, yielded averaging 7-8% against current price

Enough.... Good luck... Bye bye

I don't like this company simply I think if you can't make money during the past 3 years when CPO price were good.... It's rationale to conclude it's not going to be an easy investing and making money journey in the current weak CPO cycle!

He believes and behave like the controlling shareholder... Tan Sri Tiong &family

That why he keep saying that invest in company must be based on long term.......

He won't be regretes...he have got extremely strong holding power that can outweighs the prolong down cycle in CPO and wiped out all other weak panic investors

If you do you homework, there are other palm oil companies are much more attractive.....if still you insisted to jumping in now!

No other reasons... Simply because of the operating and plantation costs are much cheaper in Indonesia as against operate in Sarawak!

The similar negative factors applied to the timber sector..... Started of the new forest rectification policy imposed by the state government that hammered down the logging business, following by the reforestation requirement compliance that increases the cost substantially..... The timber segment will continue to record red in the next 2 years....

Not sure... What's other hidden negative factors yet to be quantified...

Hemmmm

I am in the opinion..... It's too early to trigger the accumulation as the valuation is not cheap at all admist the dropped in price may appear to be rock bottom on surface if without going through the details...

Follow the new financial standard requirement, the company need to write one off Rm300 millions of tangleble asset or Rm0. 30 per share and subsequently Rm50 millions of biological asset per annum ....

Hence, the dropped in price doesn't mean it's cheap now!

The current weak cycle in CPO is at half journey judging from the historical pattern....

Falling knife will be until Feb end next year... Worse still, the research house yet to downgrade the plantation sector!

As usual... They will starting downgrade in early March 2019!

The average CPO price for last quarter is Rm2400/mt.....the coming quarter ending at Dec is expected to hit RM2100......

The Dec CPO already hit Rm2000... and is expected to trade below Rm2000 soon... Lacking of visibility onward..


Surely....the quarterly to be reported by February 2019 in red!

This forecast is almost guarantee!

Can you ascertaining the position of cycle now?

Do you think my points 2 and 3 imperative for a successful investing?

I'm telling you clearly... The price of palm oil stocks is bound to retreat earlier because the earning had dropped... Valuation wise.. Is still not cheap!

I'm telling you the next quarter of earning are even worse... Falling knife.. Is in the making ...


However, you must knows when to act decisively because that's my ultimate message...

No one will believe my write up... Because the pessimistic investors would say this time is different..... The song of falling knife keeps playing.....


Can you hear my message!

The pessimistic investors wouldn't be able to think and act rationally although the value equation far outweighs the price of the stock....

Sad! That story happened in 2008 and will certainly repeats in 2019......

The good and cash rich investor love this environment...... The season sectorial investor knows when to act patiently in stages.....

The risk aversion investor fear the most... Falling knife... Falling knife.... Price keeping lower and lower if not every other days, certainly on every week...

From my 3 points highlighted above, I would like to take the palm oil industry as a case to further calibrate my thoughts :

1) Palm oil industry is one of the 3 industries that Malaysian companies can compete beyond national boundary:apart from glove and petroleum industries.

2) Prior to the current weak cycle, the valuation in the sector is expansive incorporated item 1 above.

3) When the commodity price started dropping from below Rm2600/mt, the earning in the sector would drop in essence but might not affected the quarterly earning yet due to existing inventory and growth from new crop. Only a handful insiders knows

4) When price dropped further to below Rm2200/mt, the earning even the top league players would have negatively affected.. At this juncture.... Professional analyst and layman also notice the weak outlook... At this stage, the dropped in earning would in tandem with the equity price as reported in the quarterly earning.

5) Usually, the bad news will leading to another ...increase in minimum wages, weak price from substitute soil bean etc... The commodity price dropped further than Rm2200/mt....paving for even low earning or negative earning in the coming quarter.... Professional analyst down grade the stock citing poor outlook... Inventory history high... Investors panic...risk aversion ruled the heart and head.... Price of the stock... Hitting new low every week...

Good or bad is a relative concept... To others, I might not a good investor to others but I'm a good investor in my own terms ...the return accumulated for the past 20 years allowing me to retire wealthy enough to support my lifestyle plus 5?% annual inflation

Agreed!

Having said that, you no need the most effective strategy to produce above average result in investing. More importantly, the right guidelines still applicable forever. It is effective in the financial turmoil in 1998 and subprime crisis in 2008. Among other...

1) Ascertaining the current position in relation to the economy cycle, though the precisely timing not attainable.

2) Long holding power outweigh the downturn cycle and other weak panic sellers

3) invest in the stock that you are familiar with

Agreed!

How human being can run from the complicated nature when they are optimistic, driven by greed, chasing up the valuation and ignore the expansive risk associated with the equity in that risk tolerance cycle!

When they are pessimistic, driven by the fear, causing the price dropped like no tomorrow and ignore completely the value equation of stock when risk aversion ruled their heart and head simultaneously.

To answer this million question, I offered you with 3 further questions that might be worth ponder :

1) Do you think the current bearish sentiment is simply causing by the expansive valuation.The a dropped in earning drag down the price.Thus, the overall valuation is still expansive compared to its regional peers?

2) Do you think the risk aversion really outweigh. the risk tolerance among the investors in the marketplace right now?

3) Do you think the equity in other world particularly in the USA and Europe markets is still cheap comparative to the incoming credit cycle?

Do you think the current bursa barometer has hitting the bottom level?

If Jak carried with such good prospect as earlier prior to his acquisition, the margin call factor won't made him disposed his stake 100%...

Can you do the rational calibration between margin call and zero jak holding?

I can't!

Do you really think because of margin call only KYY had to sell 100% of jak?

Do you think KYY that poor?

Think deeply!

Just ignore the story of blind and elephant..... Perhaps, my language is hard... But my motive is pure!

Bye bye

Choivol,

For the sake of yourself, prisoned in a dark room and ponder why you made this mistake, what scenario indulging you impaired your cognitive thinking?

That would be worth a million ringgit to your journey of learning.... No points trumpet the slogan publicly but living in an opposite reality!

The thinking faculty is impaired! Only half past six newbie dare to teach veterans here'

qqq3, ...that is half past six math... That's stupid!

The real mathematician won't araggont without the essential info...

Choivol. I had got zero investment in jaks..... But that doesn't prevent me from correcting your mistake.... After all, you keep on wordship knowing mistake is more valuable than making blindly money when comes to investment

Believing in 4...with ego is suicidal!

1) acknowledging what you know is good,
2) acknowledging what you don't know is great

3) pretending what you know but actually you
don't know is bad
4) assuming scenario without substantiated by fact is stupid!

Clearly, choivol is 4.....

Please revisit your write up .. the story of blind and elephant....

With this immature mentality, you learning will be a self deceitful journey...

You are irresponsible newbie? Or worse still with bad motive?

You have made yourself a disgraceful writer... Shame!

Until and unless you access to the real contract signed between jaks and the Vietnam party, you assumption is super dangerous and carried negative value!

How can you dare to undertake valuation exercise without the essence of contract? Are you a newbie?

Choivol,

Your write carried zero common sense.... If you were right,

1) do you think the controlling shareholder in Jacks will want to venture into this losing money business in Vietnam?

2) do you think the banker will want to give out the loan, knowing the project is not viable?

Reexamine your thought again?

Dow Wii be crashing 5000 points in Dec....