At the current rate, should be seeing mother share hitting 0.47 while son hitting 0.140 sometime during tomorrow trading session.

Was anticipating the reversal by Friday and looks like it has higher chance right now to be 0.45-0.470 before Friday, downside risk towards 0.350 has been invalidated.

With a staggering open interest of 300k currently DJ Commodity Index GSCI (by Goldman) is going to roll ALL their CL June contract before end of 29th April . How much? 30.5% weigt. (and here I thought Goldman should be clever enough to do it last week)

Which sucker is going to catch it, doubt any insane institution traders are going to take the other end. Perhaps another water fish like China bank ICBC that recently blew the client's account.

Undisclose oil storage companies might be catching deal of the centuries within these turmoil inflicted two months timeframe.

Been having a good month hence I am willing to share some tips.

Let's just talk about US:
- Basically, the oil producers can't afford to cut production capacity below say 60% as it's either 60% or 0% (in which capping the well incur higher cost than not producing, and there is additional cost to revive it at later timeframe when price gradually increases due to consumption)
- To simply construct a six oil storage tank let's just say max 16million bbl each (super size oil tank with reinforced steel) take about 360 days (excluding labor strike)
- To simply add-on additional oil storage on existing site you will be looking at around 2 months max (no joke)

So, what's basically will happen in the following weeks: (I am still talking about US)
- option A: USO related ETP will be forced to go bankrupt to curb the losses due to oil producers keep selling front-month(S) [MNQUVXZ:June->Dec] in hoping to mitigate the burden to the sheep buyers (in this case, most probably will be retail traders coz why not?)
Catch: However, since it involves huge amount of money which the big guys do not want to see hence these ETP related products going bankrupt is really low. So they will look into option B
- option B: Buy enough time by bailing these funds out by sucking it up to become the buyers while increasing the country emergency reserve capacity. However, since the storage capacity is enough for 70+ million bbl, what can they do?
Answer = while sucking up the overflow contracts on the market, they build additional oil tanks on existing storage at massive scale (creating temporary workforce coz why not? saving energy industry by diverting the workforce). That's the time that they need to buy in order to restore the price and avoid financial turmoil in the coming months (Mid May, June and etc).

Hell, they might even finding solution to turn those massive retired airplanes graveyard into potential oil storage containers.

TLDR: if you are extremely worry about this stock, don't. You will be able to see miracles in about 2-3 months time.

Happy trading.

As expected, due to the spread getting wider as of right now (-5.81 up from -4.57 on Sunday, a 27% increment!).

Continue selling pressure of WTI and Brent into Friday, with highest volatility (of the week) on Wednesday.

Trade safely when averaging down / catching the falling knife despite the fact that this counter has the best cash to debt ratio.

Posted by kata888 > Apr 26, 2020 2:17 AM | Report Abuse X

CL MN spread is so wide that you can fit a bus through the channel. Anyway crude basically will resume some selling pressure early morning. HIBI has been showing great risilent amid recent selling of WTI/Brent. Interesting week ahead!

CL MN spread is so wide that you can fit a bus through the channel. Anyway crude basically will resume some selling pressure early morning. HIBI has been showing great risilent amid recent selling of WTI/Brent. Interesting week ahead!

How did they come up with VWAP (5days) of 1.49?
According to the chart:
Volume Close High Low Average VWAP 5-day VWAP
14.038 1.780 1.870 1.770 1.807 25.362 1.648
22.672 1.680 1.820 1.680 1.727 39.147
36.894 1.570 1.640 1.530 1.580 58.293
15.456 1.590 1.630 1.510 1.577 24.369
10.79 1.620 1.640 1.580 1.613 17.408

My bad, misread, 10% discounted value of 1.65 = 1.49

How did they come up with VWAP (5days) of 1.49?
According to the chart:
Volume Close High Low Average VWAP 5-day VWAP
14.038 1.780 1.870 1.770 1.807 25.362 1.648
22.672 1.680 1.820 1.680 1.727 39.147
36.894 1.570 1.640 1.530 1.580 58.293
15.456 1.590 1.630 1.510 1.577 24.369
10.79 1.620 1.640 1.580 1.613 17.408

There isn't any sensible POC generated between available timeframe. Anything below 1.79 is a good shorting opportunity, too bad no short selling. Le-Sigh

cash conversion cycle 98 days... ERM

and of course, just looking at the past 5 years financial result you can instantly spot the similarity in comparison with Dragon country's covid19 official result. What a "beautiful" pattern

You need to beware what's happening here. The company from China doesn't even have it's own face mask. It is selling baby products. It's from the same province.

Not retrenching any existing employees simply means AA group is using the employees as the bargaining CHIP for negotiating with respective countries' government.