Posted by iafx > Jul 31, 2013 12:35 PM | Report Abuse
saved your "of course", kick one time response one time, what heck of ass-bug... simply talk cock one, never able to substantiate a thing, beside BS BS BS and BS from others' writting

Read your posts and my posts. Who has substantiation of what he says and who doesn't.

Really I haven't seen one single post you have substantiation of what you say. Merely copy and paste links and talk cock.

of course there are many stocks with more than 300% return in 4 years, or a CAGR of 38%. Definitely! But do you have anyone? I bet you don't even know how to compute.

You only know how to talk cock only.

"si-tipu-roti-canai" again? I remember you wanted to save every post of mine and analyze and expose my tipu. So I have posted 2182 posts now in i3. Found anyone already or not? So long already oh!

38% return for me? Tell you want, if I sell now, it would be 320% already. 10 times more man. 38% is the compounded annual rate of return since 4 years ago oh! You know what is meant by CAR?

"hmmm... still very ultra low liquid, looks like gotta wait for a while to dispose ;)"

Really ah? I thought I saw the bid-asked spread has been just one sen most of the time. Why gotta wait for a while to dispose ah?

Yeah man, 38% in six months, not including today's rise yet!
Remember, no liquidity, no analysts follow, not followed by equity tracker, useless cash sitting in balance sheet, not good dividend, etc macham macham.

Hey you have not responded to my queries yet woh!

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 31, 2013 09:41 AM | Report Abuse X
stagnnant crap? 4-years of waiting?
Before this announcement of bonus issue, the 4-year total return is 318%, or a compound annual rate of return of 38% compared to 10% of KLSE! i challenge you to find another one as good as Pintaras in Bursa and shows us.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 31, 2013 11:06 AM | Report Abuse X
"target fully hit"? what do you mean? What are you basing on? PE, EV/Ebit, dividend yield, price-to-book, price-to-FCF? What is it? Can share ah?

Hey now investment bank also starts to provide analysis for Pintaras already loh.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/34075.jsp

ah lei, simply talk cock one, of course besides acted like a ghost in deleting posts. Never able to substantiate a thing.

"target fully hit"? what do you mean? What are you basing on? PE, EV/Ebit, dividend yield, price-to-book, price-to-FCF? What is it? Can share ah?

Fundamental analysis from an individual investor.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/34039.jsp

stagnnant crap? 4-years of waiting?

Before this announcement of bonus issue, the 4-year total return is 318%, or a compound annual rate of return of 38% compared to 10% of KLSE! i challenge you to find another one as good as Pintaras in Bursa and shows us.

Pintaras 5.01 12/06/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Price 3.68 3.14 2.80 2.35 1.60 1.20 1.40
Return of stock 36.1% 59.6% 78.9% 113.2% 213.1% 317.5% 257.9%
CAR 304505% 154.6% 78.9% 46.0% 46.3% 42.9% 29.0%
Dividend 2.7% 4.0% 6.8% 6.4% 6.3% 10.0% 7.1%
Stock price appreciation 304503% 150.6% 72.1% 39.6% 40.0% 32.9% 21.9%

Finally? What finally? Even before this surge, the price has already appreciated by 63%. With the surge this morning, it has appreciated by 67% since 6 months ago! Six months too long to wait for 63% gain?

Remember, no liquidity, no analysts follow, not followed by equity tracker, useless cash sitting in balance sheet, not good dividend, etc macham macham.

Posted by TeckChuan Lee > Jul 30, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse
KC can you please explain to me whats the actual meaning and purpose of us calculating ROA, ROE, Current Ratio, EV/Ebit & EV/EbitDA??

TeckChuan, please read the posts at the top of each of the following threads where I try to explain the significance of some of the metrics for investment.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900285510.jsp

What is brewing in Kretam?

Another palm oil company with palm oil mills. With palm oil prices still in downtrend, what is so special about this company? Never pay dividend until the last two years. No I don't have the faintest idea.

Very poor operation efficiencies with ROE and ROIC at 2.7% and 1.5% respectively. I don't even want to pay any attention to it even if it is selling very cheap.

what more it is selling at a PE ratio of 56 and a very low earnings yield (ebit/EV) of just 4%?

inwest88, I don't know why you want to ask about whether Kretam is worth investing or not from a investor with fundamental approach.

"The stock has moved up almost one ringgit in the last month or so."

Did you direct the question to the right person? As you know, I am not an investor basing on momentum of price volume action.

steve, PE of 4.4 was based on previous earnings the previous price of 1.61. At the latest annual earnings of 36.6 sen per share and its price now of 3.14, PE is 8.6.

RM2.8 is just an estimate of its intrinsic value, a subjective evaluation. Not engraved in stone.

steve, this was what I talked about Hua Yang 5-6 months ago. The problem is its price was just RM1.61, but it is already RM3.14 already now. So as the price already doubled in just 5-6 months, don't you think that people have chased the price too far after its bonus issues declaration?

Hua Yang is one of the fastest growth property companies in the last three years. Its main project is the One South Sri Kembangan development which has a GDV of RM920m, with other minor projects spread over in Johore, NS and Selangor. Revenue rose by a compounded annual rate of 82% and 62% respectively in the last two years to 306m for year ended 31/3/2012 and profit ballooned by almost 5 times to 53m. Net profit margin has expanded every year to a respectable 17.3% last year and ROE to 20%. A dissection of its ROE below shows that the high ROE is achieved with the high net profit margin, NI (17.3%) and skillful use manageable debts and good financial leverage of 1.7.
ROE=NI*AT*FL=17.3%*0.7*1.7=20%

With more projects expected to come on-stream, it is expected that asset turnover will increase and so is the ROE. Earnings per share increases every year, despite the issuance of bonus share each year to its shareholders. In the year ending 31 March 2012, EPS is 37 sen. For the three quarters ending 31 December 2012, net profit increased further to RM53.5m, or 28 sen per share with a another increase shares outstanding to 198m due to the 1 for 4 bonus issues. EPS is estimated to be about 40 sen for the full year. Its balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.36 (<1), and low solvency risks with current ratio high at 3.0. However, there is no free cash flow yet as Hua Yang uses all its CFFO to buy up more land for development and other capital expenses. FCF will come soon. Hua Yang gave a dividend of 15 sen for the last few years, despite the increase in outstanding shares. If this dividend persists, this will translate to a dividend yield of 9.3%, with today’s closing price of RM1.61.

Meanwhile the PE ratio is incredibly low at just 4.4. Using the simple valuation with ROE of 20%, a 12% required return,and a net tangible asset per share of RM1.69, Hua Yang should worth RM2.80 (20%/12%*1.69). Don’t you think it is a good investment?

steve,

Faber does appear to be having a good business. Good cash flows and healthy balance sheet with negligible debt now after 150m debts were paid off last year. ROE was good averaging 18.4% for the last two years.

At RM1.77 at the close of today’s market, PE ratio and price-to-book are at undemanding 6 and 1.2 respectively. Yes, Faber may be a good company to invest in.

Posted by TeckChuan Lee > Jul 30, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse
KC can you please explain to me whats the actual meaning and purpose of us calculating ROA, ROE, Current Ratio, EV/Ebit & EV/EbitDA??

In my language, buying a stock means investing as a part owner of a business. You put in say 10,000 (equity)in a business. What do you want on return of this money? Investing in a business is a high risk adventure. You could lose all your money. So for me I require a return of at least say 12% a year. So if the business only earns 500 for me a year, or a ROE of the business is only 5%, do you think I want to invest in it?

If you have invested 100,000 in the assets of this company, and the return is only 3000, or ROA, would you still want to invest in this company?

Current ratio=current asset/current liability. Current assets are assets which you can readily convert to cash and current liabilities are what you owe others in short term of less than a year. So if your current assets is less than current liabilities, or CA/CL<1, you face the risk of bankruptcy as you don't have readily available assets to convert to cash and pay your current liabilities when demanded.

EV is the enterprise value of a business which includes market value of shareholders equity and debts, less excess cash and other assets not consolidated in the financial statements of the company. Ebit is what the firm earns before interest and debts. So EV/Ebit measures market valuation of the enterprise. it is like PE ratio but PE ratio concerns only shareholders. You then can judge if if the stock is too expensive to buy.

EV/Ebitda is quite similar to EV/Ebitda except ebitda takes into consideration of non-cash item in depreciation and amortization.

You can easily goggle and there will be better and more detail explanations available.

hey steve, you asked a very relevant question. You were right. Traders relying on technical analysis base entry and exit mostly from price volume and other technical indicators. They generally don't hold those stocks longer than a few months, some not even days, because the price changes all the time. They would have exit long ago and may re-enter, exit and reenter again and again.

house, when Mega First is a substantial shareholder of an associate company A, the account of A is "consolidated" into MFCB's financial statement. In A's account, its income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement is "added" to MFCB's item by item.

So MFCB's subsidiary could be say a power plant in China. A probably pays a substantial part of its earnings to its shareholders. MFCB's dividend payout to its shareholders could have been relatively lower. Hence the minority shareholders of A could have enjoyed higher dividend than the shareholders of MFCB. You notice that most of MFCB's revenue and earnings come from power plant business?

This is my opinion as a non-professional. any accountant around to clarify?

How is kcchongnz portfolio compared to the unit trust funds invested in Bursa stocks for the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year holding period? For unit trust funds return, please refer to the following link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900334365.jsp?fp=2

Year 1 3 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 24.6% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 9.9% 9.3%
Unit trust, ave CAR 15.20% 12.10% 11.70%
Unit trust Max CAR 28.50% 22.00% 20.80%

It does appear that I did pretty well. Not only my portfolio beat the averages of the unit trusts for all the holding periods, the portfolio even out-performed the best of the 68 funds investing in Bursa! Hard to believe!

Is it a good idea to invest through unit trusts? Which local equity fund is the best?

Once I asked a forumer who has been posting unit trust funds in i3investor what is the average and median CAR of the unit trust funds in Malaysia. He came back and asked me what CAR is. So I have no choice but to go to the Fundsupermart website myself and compiled and tabulate the compounded annual return (CAR) of the equity funds invested in KLSE for the 1, 3 and 5 years.

From the website, there are a total of 68 local equity funds investing in the KLSE. The average 1-year average and median return is both about 15%, 3 years 12.2% and the 5 years 11.6% as shown below:

Table 1: Fund performance in %
Years 1 3 5
Average 15.2 12.1 11.7
Median 14.9 12.3 11.6
Stdev 5.2 3.8 3.5
No.>KLSE 55 51 49
81% 75% 72%
Max 28.5 22.0 20.8
Min 3.6 3.6 4.0
KLSE 10.80 9.90 9.30

How is the past performance of the funds as a whole? My opinion is they did pretty well. The average returns of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for all holding periods of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year by 4.4%, 2.2% and 2.4% respectively. 81% of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for 1-year, and 72% for the 5-year. Even if one invested in the worst performer, he still earns more than the fixed deposit, assumed to be about 3.5%. Wonderful! I think I should make some observations as below:

1. The stock market, especially Bursa Malaysia, is far from efficient.
2. The fund managers in Malaysia are better than those from the US as research has shown that US fund managers under-perform the broad market as a whole. But it could also be due to the inefficiency of KLSE that enable them to out-perform.
3. The performance of the good fund manager are pretty consistent too. For example, Philip Capital Master Growth Fund is the No. 1 for the 1-year return of 28.5%. It also did pretty well for the 3-year and 5-year return of 18.4% and 20% respectively. Similar consistency is shown by the top fund for the 3-year, Kenanga Growth Fund at 22%, and MAAKL-HDBS Flexi fund for the 5-year as shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2: Top fund managers, % CAR
Year 1 3 5
1-year PC Master growth fund 28.5 18.4 20.0
3-year Kenanga Growth Fund 22.3 22.0 20.0
5-year MAAKL-HDBS Flexi Fund 20.9 20.5 20.8

My conclusion is that it may be a good idea for ordinary people who have not much knowledge and wish to invest in the equity market to invest in the local unit trust funds.

For individual investor, how is your return compared with the market? How is it compared to unit trusts funds?

Please note this article is just for sharing purpose. I am not a unit trust agent, neither am I a financial advisor.

I have to reiterate that the 6-9 months of the good performance posted is too short a record to boast about. It could very well be due to luck. Really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing to me is a long term endeavour. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how to measure the long term performance of your portfolio?

Table 1 below shows the performance measurement of my portfolio for one to five years. Again this is just for discussion purpose. I hope others do not construe this as a self bragging exercise. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.
Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years

Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 2.26 1.78 1.04 0.650 0.490
Pintaras 9598 4.90 2.65 2.35 1.70 1.37 1.30
ECS 5162 1.22 1.05 0.955 0.735
Plenitude 5075 2.31 1.88 2.060 1.93 1.30 1.04
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 2.12 2.890
Pantech 5125 1.09 0.6 0.595 0.720 0.68 0.690
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.32 0.180 0.130 0.085 0.080
NTPM 5066 0.565 0.475 0.535
Kimlun 5171 2.23 1.42 1.690 1.040
Prestariang 5204 2.14 1.26
KLCI KLSE 1808 1632 1549 1361 1175 1159

Table 2 below shows the compounded annual return (CAR) of each stock for 1-5 years of holding period.

Table 2: CAR of stocks and KLSE (28/7/13)
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 -6.6% 8.9% 26.6% 34.2% 33.9%
Pintaras 9598 4.90 84.9% 44.4% 42.3% 37.5% 30.4%
ECS 5162 1.22 16.2% 13.0% 18.4%
Plenitude 5075 2.31 22.9% 5.9% 6.2% 15.5% 17.3%
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 93.4% 19.1%
Pantech 5125 1.09 81.7% 35.3% 14.8% 12.7% 9.6%
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.0% 33.3% 35.0% 39.3% 32.0%
NTPM 5066 0.565 18.9% 2.8%
Kimlun 5171 2.23 57.0% 14.9% 29.0%
Prestariang 5204 2.14 69.8%

And Table 3 below shows the computation of CAR of the portfolio as compared to that of KLSE.

Table 3: CAR comparison of portfolio with KLSE
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 19.7% 24.6% 27.8% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 8.0% 9.9% 11.4% 9.3%
Excess return 33.0% 11.7% 14.7% 16.5% 15.3%

It can be that on average, the CAR of the portfolio out-performed the broad market by a wide margin. For example for a five year holding period, the portfolio returns a CAR of 24.6% as compared to KLSE’s 9.3%, a whopping 15.3% of excess return each year. For a shorter holding period of three years, the excess return a year is 14.7%.

Now that each of us (OTB, Fat Cat, kcchong) claimed that his portfolio made impressive return from the stock market, let’s see whose return is the best. Before that let me just lay down some points here first.

1) The purpose here is not really trying to compare who is the best stock picker, because while the skill in stock picking cannot be ruled out, but frankly speaking, the good/bad return could have a big portion of it in lady luck too.

2) While this is not for the purpose of boasting or discrediting the prowess of anybody in stock picking skill, it also should serve the purpose of shutting up some of the people here who have been condemning others about their sharing in the stock market. I, for one, has been under vicious attacks by a couple of people here recently regarding my sharing in the forums about the business of some companies, and most of the time when asked by others. It took a lot of time to analyze and wrote my opinion in responses to those queries. However, I don’t remember I have recommended anyone to buy any share.

3) I acknowledge that there are many people out there in i3 who may have done much better than those described here.

4) Three portfolios put up in i3 here about the same time six-eight months ago and the prices then and now are all there and are transparent. No tipu-pusing-bullshit can be done.

5) For the portfolio of kcchong, the total return of each stock include dividend which the average dividend yield worked out to be about 2.2%. for OTB’s portfolio, I assume the same dividend yield . For Fat Cat’s portfolio, I put in an additional percentage point in dividend yield (3.2%)due to its large holding in Reits.

6) Kcchongnz’s investing strategy is based on fundamentals, mainly trying to buy good companies stocks at a low and reasonable price. OTB’s strategy is based more on technical analysis couple with some basic fundamentals. Fat Cat appears to be fundamental but more interested in high dividend yields.

7) KLSE started at the beginning of the year at 1637. As at 26/7/13, it closed at 1808, or a gain of 10.4%. With an estimate dividend yield of 1.6%, the total return so far is 12%.

Fat Cat total return so far is 29.6%. Well done Fat Cat. You outperformed the KLSE by a whopping 18% for this nine months. I think you easily beat many fund managers with this return.

Kcchong’s portfolio returned 38.0% in the seven months, it is even better than Fat Cat fabulous return. Who said kcchong recommended ( I never recommend anything) losing stocks? Who said my fundamental approach in investing is hopeless, useless? Who who who?

However, OTB’s portfolio return 55%, way above the two portfolios above. So how? Can you say OTB recommended lap sap stocks. OTB was under attack by more , many more people than I encountered. What I can say is “well done OTB”.

Now I want to reiterate here again, the outperformance of all the above could have been a big portion due to luck factor while of course their skill could also be a big factor. If not how could they out-performed the market by such a wide margin?

One thing I notice that OTB has the most number of very big winners (>50% return), Prestariang, Naim, Huayang, Alam and KHSB. Kcchong has a number of big winners too in Pintaras, Jobstreet, Kimlun and Preatariang. Fat Cat has the biggest winner in Poweroot (108%). My conclusion is as OTB is a technician, trading stocks basing on momentum could yield better return in a bull market.

So is technical analysis always better than fundamental analysis? Yes, in this particular six-eight months when the stock market is on the rise, a good run indeed. Is technical analysis always a better approach is investing. No, I don’t agree. Bear in mind that OTB is a good technician compared to many novice ones. Well I know many people would not agree with me. I expect that. But we can always discuss sometime later if anyone wish to.

CityTrader, can you explain to me the logic of the retracement rules of Fibonacci as mentioned by you. What is the rational of how many percent retracements for a sell signal, or buy signal? You see I am not even sure if my question is logical or not.

Bullish trend reversal? If today is bearish, why can't it be bullish tomorrow? What is the rational that today bullish, tomorrow must be bearish?

Is it a good idea to invest through unit trusts? Which local equity fund is the best?

Once I asked a forumer who has been posting unit trust funds in i3investor what is the average and median CAR of the unit trust funds in Malaysia. He came back and asked me what CAR is. So I have no choice but to go to the Fundsupermart website myself and compiled and tabulate the compounded annual return (CAR) of the equity funds invested in KLSE for the 1, 3 and 5 years.

From the website, there are a total of 68 local equity funds investing in the KLSE. The average 1-year average and median return is both about 15%, 3 years 12.2% and the 5 years 11.6% as shown below:

Table 1: Fund performance in %
Years 1 3 5
Average 15.2 12.1 11.7
Median 14.9 12.3 11.6
Stdev 5.2 3.8 3.5
No.>KLSE 55 51 49
81% 75% 72%
Max 28.5 22.0 20.8
Min 3.6 3.6 4.0
KLSE 10.80 9.90 9.30

How is the past performance of the funds as a whole? My opinion is they did pretty well. The average returns of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for all holding periods of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year by 4.4%, 2.2% and 2.4% respectively. 81% of the unit trusts outperformed KLSE for 1-year, and 72% for the 5-year. Even if one invested in the worst performer, he still earns more than the fixed deposit, assumed to be about 3.5%. Wonderful! I think I should make some observations as below:

1. The stock market, especially Bursa Malaysia, is far from efficient.

2. The fund managers in Malaysia are better than those from the US as research has shown that US fund managers under-perform the broad market as a whole. But it could also be due to the inefficiency of KLSE that enable them to out-perform.

3. The performance of the good fund manager are pretty consistent too. For example, Philip Capital Master Growth Fund is the No. 1 for the 1-year return of 28.5%. It also did pretty well for the 3-year and 5-year return of 18.4% and 20% respectively.

Similar consistency is shown by the top fund for the 3-year, Kenanga Growth Fund at 22%, and MAAKL-HDBS Flexi fund for the 5-year as shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2: Top fund managers, % CAR
Year 1 3 5
1-year PC Master growth fund 28.5 18.4 20.0
3-year Kenanga Growth Fund 22.3 22.0 20.0
5-year MAAKL-HDBS Flexi Fund 20.9 20.5 20.8

My conclusion is that it may be a good idea for ordinary people who have not much knowledge and wish to invest in the equity market to invest in the local unit trust funds.

For individual investor, how is your return compared with the market? How is it compared to unit trusts funds?

Please note this article is just for sharing purpose. I am not a unit trust agent, neither am I a financial adviser.

I like to cite this saying below:

•In Bursa, there ain’t no tooth fairy

As I have posted that the total six-month return of my portfolio was 38% as compared to 10% of the KLSE, or an excess return of 28%. The 5-year compounded annual return of that portfolio just posted above was 24.6% as compared to 9.3% of the KLSE, or an excess return of 15.3%. This 5-year CAR is more representative because we have gone through a boom and bust from July 2008 to now. Sorry ah for boasting about them again.

Can I get another 38% of a new portfolio in another 6 months time? Highly unlikely. Can I post the same stellar return of the 5-year return. Dream on.

First of all, the great performance as I have said could have a big portion of the element of luck. Secondly, I believe this mean reverting principle in the equity market; any market for that matter, such as the property market.

But I also believe the economy of the country and the world at large will continue to grow and stock prices of good companies will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. So stocks selected basing on fundamentals such as their growth prospects, durability and quality of the business, management efficiencies and asset allocations, and most of all the concept of margin of safety, will continue to provide a higher return than the market.

I can share stocks which I think meet my requirements above and give my analysis and reasons for the choices. No point for me just to tell you which companies are good as investment without giving reasons why. However I think many here will find the stuff boring. Not sure if it is a good idea.

For those who are interested, it may provide you with some fundamental knowledge in investing which may be useful whether you make big money or not. This I personally believe so. I very much welcome constructive criticisms, not just baseless accusations and allegations, names calling etc without any substantiations.

I reiterate here again that I seriously don't think they will give you quick short-term return. Forget it. I am here just to share my thoughts.

I have to reiterate that the 6-9 months of the good performance posted is too short a record to boast about. It could very well be due to luck. Really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing to me is a long term endeavor. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how to measure the long term performance of your portfolio?

Table 1 below shows the performance measurement of my portfolio for one to five years. Again this is just for discussion purpose. I hope others do not construe this as a self bragging exercise. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.

Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 2.26 1.78 1.04 0.650 0.490
Pintaras 9598 4.90 2.65 2.35 1.70 1.37 1.30
ECS 5162 1.22 1.05 0.955 0.735
Plenitude 5075 2.31 1.88 2.060 1.93 1.30 1.04
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 2.12 2.890
Pantech 5125 1.09 0.6 0.595 0.720 0.68 0.690
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.32 0.180 0.130 0.085 0.080
NTPM 5066 0.565 0.475 0.535
Kimlun 5171 2.23 1.42 1.690 1.040
Prestariang 5204 2.14 1.26
KLCI KLSE 1808 1632 1549 1361 1175 1159

Table 2 below shows the compounded annual return (CAR) of each stock for 1-5 years of holding period.

Table 2: CAR of stocks and KLSE (28/7/13)
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 -6.6% 8.9% 26.6% 34.2% 33.9%
Pintaras 9598 4.90 84.9% 44.4% 42.3% 37.5% 30.4%
ECS 5162 1.22 16.2% 13.0% 18.4%
Plenitude 5075 2.31 22.9% 5.9% 6.2% 15.5% 17.3%
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 93.4% 19.1%
Pantech 5125 1.09 81.7% 35.3% 14.8% 12.7% 9.6%
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.0% 33.3% 35.0% 39.3% 32.0%
NTPM 5066 0.565 18.9% 2.8%
Kimlun 5171 2.23 57.0% 14.9% 29.0%
Prestariang 5204 2.14 69.8%

And Table 3 below shows the computation of CAR of the portfolio as compared to that of KLSE.

Table 3: CAR comparison of portfolio with KLSE
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 19.7% 24.6% 27.8% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 8.0% 9.9% 11.4% 9.3%
Excess return 33.0% 11.7% 14.7% 16.5% 15.3%

It can be that on average, the CAR of the portfolio out-performed the broad market by a wide margin. For example for a five year holding period, the portfolio returns a CAR of 24.6% as compared to KLSE’s 9.3%, a whopping 15.3% of excess return each year. For a shorter holding period of three years, the excess return a year is 14.7%.

This is because the structured nature of a SPAC ensures the confidence of long-term investments, managing director Datuk Seri Hadian Hashim said.

"The value in the company is derived when the management team is successful in acquiring the right assets for Sona Petroleum."

Confidence ensured? What confidence do you give investors when you presently have nothing but a shell company trying to scout for an unknown hype?

What value? How come a "right asset" will go to you? Haven't you heard of Charles Munger said below:

"When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'"

Meanwhile it is expense, expense expense; and fees, fees, and fees for the shareholders while the investment bankers are laughing, laughing and laughing.

"When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'" - Charlie Munger

ipomember, you have your point. But if you are using Greenblatt's magic formula to evaluate if SKPRes is worth investing or not based on its recent past performance, it is hard to argue that it is doesn't qualify. It has wonderful growth, operating efficiencies and selling at attractive earnings yield. Btw, it doesn't mean that 100% of the stocks meeting the criteria of the magic formula will go up. Nobody can get even closed to 70% of his stocks up in a long-term.

Why is it that its share price has been stagnant when the market has been up? How the hell I know? I don't know the motive of that Datuk Gan keep on selling. I don't know if its business in China is doing well. Only the insiders will know. If you have the additional information of how SKPRes is doing in the near future, you then only have the advantage.

house, you are right. Jaya Tiasa is not a good company in my book. You know my criteria very well. Furthermore it is not cheap too. Refer to the Greenblatt's magic formula which I use often.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900285510.jsp

This stock was first recommended in Dali's blog a couple of years ago. Since then its price has dropped by tens of percent, mainly due to drop in palm oil price. Even then I don't think it is cheap as KYY said. I am not a fan of high growth projection and expectation because research have shown that this kind of rosy projections seldom materialized, or valuation using $/hectare, without considering how much debts a company carries, and hence its high enterprise value.

Of course i can't say he is wrong. Note that he becomes rich from investing mostly. Just a different investment style.

You have any company which meets the magic formula as described above,one with high ROIC and earnings yield? please share.

Earnings Yield = EBIT / Enterprise Value
Return on Capital = EBIT / (Fixed Assets + Net Working Capital)

CityTrader,
An investor invest based on very basic and easy to understand principles. Buy good company stocks at reasonable price. There must be an adequate margin of safety when buying stock.

When to sell? Very easy to understand and comprehend. Sell when there is no more margin of safety, either the price of the stock has risen closed to or above the intrinsic value, or the fundamentals of the business have changed for the worse that the intrinsic value of the company has deteriorated permanently.

Now you said you know when Ooi, a technical analyst, will "harvest". Can you explain to us when and the rational behind it concerning his decision to harvest which we can easily comprehend, like what fundamental investors do.

Tan KW always posts valuable articles here in i3. It is a pity that not many people paying interest and attention in them.

CityTrader,

Read the book Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman.

Posted by anbz > Jul 28, 2013 09:58 AM | Report Abuse
i bet Mr Ooi and Kcchongnz cannot answer this university exam paper question on Nova Msc ...haha:

anbz, does it appear to you that I am an auditor?

It is nice to for me to let some people know that my stocks on average have out-performed the market by a whopping 28% (38% Vs 10%) for the last seven months. Hopefully this can stfu for a couple of people who have been saying the stocks I recommended (I never recommend, I only discussed about the businesses of the companies when asked) are all losers; that I tipu-pusing-bullshit-copy and paste, peddling of my stocks and macham macham.

But really the measurement of successful investing does not just based on a short-term of seven months performance. Investing, unlike trading, does not involve high portfolio turnover. It is a long term endeavour. So we have to look at the more important long-term return. So how is the performance of those stocks in my portfolio for a longer term?

Table 1 below shows the stock prices of my portfolio for one to five years. Some of the stocks only have prices of 2-3 years as they are either only listed 2-3 years ago, or data is not available from the Yahoo website.

Table 1: Stock prices 1-5 years
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 2.26 1.78 1.04 0.650 0.490
Pintaras 9598 4.90 2.65 2.35 1.70 1.37 1.30
ECS 5162 1.22 1.05 0.955 0.735
Plenitude 5075 2.31 1.88 2.060 1.93 1.30 1.04
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 2.12 2.890
Pantech 5125 1.09 0.6 0.595 0.720 0.68 0.690
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.32 0.180 0.130 0.085 0.080
NTPM 5066 0.565 0.475 0.535
Kimlun 5171 2.23 1.42 1.690 1.040
Prestariang 5204 2.14 1.26
KLCI KLSE 1808 1632 1549 1361 1175 1159

Table 2 below shows the compounded annual return (CAR) of each stock for 1-5 years of holding period.

Table 2: CAR of stocks and KLSE (28/7/13)
Stock Name Code Price now 1 2 3 4 5
Kfima 6491 2.11 -6.6% 8.9% 26.6% 34.2% 33.9%
Pintaras 9598 4.90 84.9% 44.4% 42.3% 37.5% 30.4%
ECS 5162 1.22 16.2% 13.0% 18.4%
Plenitude 5075 2.31 22.9% 5.9% 6.2% 15.5% 17.3%
Jobstreest *0058 4.10 93.4% 19.1%
Pantech 5125 1.09 81.7% 35.3% 14.8% 12.7% 9.6%
SKPRes 7155 0.320 0.0% 33.3% 35.0% 39.3% 32.0%
NTPM 5066 0.565 18.9% 2.8%
Kimlun 5171 2.23 57.0% 14.9% 29.0%
Prestariang 5204 2.14 69.8%

And Table 3 below shows the computation of CAR of the portfolio as compared to that of KLSE.

Table 3: CAR comparison of portfolio with KLSE
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Average Portfolio CAR 43.8% 19.7% 24.6% 27.8% 24.6%
KLSE CAR 10.8% 8.0% 9.9% 11.4% 9.3%
Excess return 33.0% 11.7% 14.7% 16.5% 15.3%

It can be that on average, the CAR of the portfolio out-performed the broad market by a unbelievable margin. For example for a five year holding period, the portfolio returns a CAR of 24.6% as compared to KLSE’s 9.3%, a whopping 15.3% of excess return each year. For a shorter holding period of three years, the excess return a year is 14.7%.

So does anybody still want to criticize my use of fundamental analysis in stock investment? Bring your horse over.

My personal experience.Does the magic formula useful in picking stock?


Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 27, 2013 05:20 PM | Report Abuse X

Now that each of us (OTB, Fat Cat, kcchong) claimed that his portfolio made impressive return from the stock market, let’s see whose return is the best. Before that let me just lay down some points here first.

1) The purpose here is not really trying to compare who is the best stock picker, because while the skill in stock picking cannot be ruled out, but frankly speaking, the good/bad return could have a big portion of it in lady luck too.

2) While this is not for the purpose of boasting or discrediting the prowess of anybody in stock picking skill, it also should serve the purpose of shutting up some of the people here who have been condemning others about their sharing in the stock market. I, for one, has been under vicious attacks by a couple of people here recently regarding my sharing in the forums about the business of some companies, and most of the time when asked by others. It took a lot of time to analyze and wrote my opinion in responses to those queries. However, I don’t remember I have recommended anyone to buy any share.

3) I acknowledge that there are many people out there in i3 who may have done much better than those described here.

4) Three portfolios put up in i3 here about the same time six-eight months ago and the prices then and now are all there and are transparent. No tipu-pusing-bullshit can be done.

5) For the portfolio of kcchong, the total return of each stock include dividend which the average dividend yield worked out to be about 2.2%. for OTB’s portfolio, I assume the same dividend yield . For Fat Cat’s portfolio, I put in an additional percentage point in dividend yield (3.2%)due to its large holding in Reits.

6) Kcchongnz’s investing strategy is based on fundamentals, mainly trying to buy good companies stocks at a low and reasonable price. OTB’s strategy is based more on technical analysis couple with some basic fundamentals. Fat Cat appears to be fundamental but more interested in high dividend yields.

7) KLSE started at the beginning of the year at 1637. As at 26/7/13, it closed at 1808, or a gain of 10.4%. With an estimate dividend yield of 1.6%, the total return so far is 12%.

Fat Cat total return so far is 29.6%. Well done Fat Cat. You outperformed the KLSE by a whopping 18% for this nine months. I think you easily beat many fund managers with this return.

Kcchong’s portfolio returned 38.0% in the seven months, it is even better than Fat Cat fabulous return. Who said kcchong recommended ( I never recommend anything) losing stocks? Who said my fundamental approach in investing is hopeless, useless? Who who who?

However, OTB’s portfolio return 55%, way above the two portfolios above. So how? Can you say OTB recommended lap sap stocks. OTB was under attack by more , many more people than I encountered. What I can say is “well done OTB”.

Now I want to reiterate here again, the out-performance of all the above could have been a big portion due to luck factor while of course their skill could also be a big factor. If not how could they out-performed the market by such a wide margin?

One thing I notice that OTB has the most number of big winners (>50% return), Prestariang, Naim, Huayang, Alam and KHSB. Kcchong has a number of big winners too in Pintaras, Jobstreet, Kimlun and Prestariang. Fat Cat has the biggest winner in Poweroot (108%).

My conclusion is as OTB is a technician, trading stocks basing on momentum could yield better return in a bull market.

So is technical analysis always better than fundamental analysis? Yes, in this particular six-eight months when the stock market is on the rise, a good run indeed. Is technical analysis always a better approach is investing. No, I don’t agree. Bear in mind that OTB is a good technician compared to many novice ones. Well I know many people would not agree with me. I expect that. But we can always discuss sometime later if anyone wish to.

inwest88, this is my recent post for Mudajaya. Please note that there were some recent news that one of Mudajaya's problems in coal supply (?) may have been solved. If it is so there may be some renewed interest in this stock. However, I don't think this is the only problem of Mudajaya in India.


Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 17, 2013 06:47 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by seedarren > Apr 13, 2013 02:30 PM | Report Abuse
How about Mudajya?
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Revenue 1655722 1347059 870428 719971 422382 273981 285933 293113 385139
Net Profit 237104 231032 215553 119180 45117 30140 16255 14724 26679
Equity 1103833 1007725 760988 422840 304132 253862 164187 153152 144195
ROE 23.53 30.36 50.98 39.19 17.77 18.36 10.61 10.21
Growth Analysis(2004 to 2012)
=============================
Revenue CAGR = 20%
Net Profit CAGR = 31.40%
Equity CAGR = 28.97

Stock Analysis
==============
Curr Price = 2.56
PER = 5.94
Div Yield = 2.54
P/Book Ratio = 1.26
Graham Number = 7.50
PEG = 0.19

Mudajaya certainly is a growth stock from 2005-2010. Revenue and net profit (NI) grew at the speed of bullet train. However after that, though revenue continue to grow, NI has stagnated. This is natural as Mudajaya grew to a giant size, it is harder to grow any more. Hence I would stop calling Mudajaya a growth stock from now on. But does MudaJaya qualifies as a value stock. Let us evaluate using Cold Eye's 5 yardsticks.

1) ROE is 23% tick
2) The quality of earnings for last year was fantastic. CFFO is 234% of NI and FCF is abundant at 29% of revenue, tick.
3) PE ratio at 6.5, <10, tick
4) Dividend of 9 sen, or DY of 3.5%, more than FD rate, tick.
5) Price-to-book of 1.3 <1.5, ok and tick

Hence Mudajaya qualifies as a value stock in all aspects.

I think there are two major reasons for the undervaluation of Mudajaya; one was the poor credibility of its management which investors have not forgotten yet. Secondly, I have doubt about its power plant in India. There are many political, social, economical, etc issues about this power plant development in India.

inwest88, that is why a famous person once said:

Tis goeth down to a fundamental aspect that “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”
- Benjamin Franklin

And also inwest88, don't hope to make money waiting for insiders to goreng the stock. They won't goreng for you to make money. They goreng to make money for themselves, from people like us.

Tech Chuan, some very good local investment website to follow to buy stocks and learn about investing. I think their recommendations are unlikely to bring you to Holland.

http://www.intellecpoint.com/
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.co.nz/
http://www.stocks-unleashed.com/
http://blisswise.blogspot.co.nz/
http://cgmalaysia.blogspot.co.nz/
http://myinvestingnotes.blogspot.co.nz/

inwest88, 100% agree with you. Analysts change their target prices, sometimes very frequently like you said. When you give a target price, don't you base it on the company's business; what they may earn for the next few years? How come this changes so often.

In short analysts many analysts don't know what they are talking about.

Now the first thing you need to do is to learn more accounting. Understand the three major parts of the financial statements, income statement, balance sheet and cash flows. The book I recommended to you I haven't read it yet, but it could be a little bit advance. Once you understand reading and interpreting financial statements, then you could go further in sporting financial shenanigans. That book "What's behind the number will be useful.

Reading is one thing. It also take quite some experience in investing to be able to become smarter in sporting frauds. I have paid a lot of tuition fees on that you know. I have lost some money before years ago when I know nothing much about investing. Worse still I thought I knew a lot.

I have posted some comments on companies like Ivory, KNM, GCB, London biscuits, Smartag, Amedia etc where I thought there is something not right about their financial statements. Search and read if you wish and see if you understand what I meant by financial shenanigans.

Posted by TeckChuan Lee > Jul 27, 2013 06:23 PM | Report Abuse
profession? lol. im a lorry salesman

Why do you lol? You are a lorry salesman, but you seem to learn accounting very fast.

Techchuan, let's go to the following link which I set up for discussions of fundamentals and leave this thread for others to suggest and discover hidden gems, ok?

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900218979.jsp

TechChuan, what is your profession may i ask?

footnote section? unbilled A/R?
Teck Chuan, you got me. i seldom go into such detail. And do you also know that I am not an accountant?

The term unbilled receivables appears to me to mean the sale, or part of it, is not billed to the buyer yet. For example, a property developer has not billed the buyer on a stage completion of a house.

So it may mean that there is an understatement of the revenue and income for that period. So for the next period, the revenue and income will be more than actual when the "unbilled" part is billed. In this case , the developer may try to smoothen its earnings volatility. Not sure I am correct or not.

No idea if it is healthy practice or not or how much is healthy. Do you really have to go into such detail?

Now that each of us (OTB, Fat Cat, kcchong) claimed that his portfolio made impressive return from the stock market, let’s see whose return is the best. Before that let me just lay down some points here first.

1) The purpose here is not really trying to compare who is the best stock picker, because while the skill in stock picking cannot be ruled out, but frankly speaking, the good/bad return could have a big portion of it in lady luck too.

2) While this is not for the purpose of boasting or discrediting the prowess of anybody in stock picking skill, it also should serve the purpose of shutting up some of the people here who have been condemning others about their sharing in the stock market. I, for one, has been under vicious attacks by a couple of people here recently regarding my sharing in the forums about the business of some companies, and most of the time when asked by others. It took a lot of time to analyze and wrote my opinion in responses to those queries. However, I don’t remember I have recommended anyone to buy any share.

3) I acknowledge that there are many people out there in i3 who may have done much better than those described here.

4) Three portfolios put up in i3 here about the same time six-eight months ago and the prices then and now are all there and are transparent. No tipu-pusing-bullshit can be done.

5) For the portfolio of kcchong, the total return of each stock include dividend which the average dividend yield worked out to be about 2.2%. for OTB’s portfolio, I assume the same dividend yield . For Fat Cat’s portfolio, I put in an additional percentage point in dividend yield (3.2%)due to its large holding in Reits.

6) Kcchongnz’s investing strategy is based on fundamentals, mainly trying to buy good companies stocks at a low and reasonable price. OTB’s strategy is based more on technical analysis couple with some basic fundamentals. Fat Cat appears to be fundamental but more interested in high dividend yields.

7) KLSE started at the beginning of the year at 1637. As at 26/7/13, it closed at 1808, or a gain of 10.4%. With an estimate dividend yield of 1.6%, the total return so far is 12%.

Fat Cat total return so far is 29.6%. Well done Fat Cat. You outperformed the KLSE by a whopping 18% for this nine months. I think you easily beat many fund managers with this return.

Kcchong’s portfolio returned 38.0% in the seven months, it is even better than Fat Cat fabulous return. Who said kcchong recommended ( I never recommend anything) losing stocks? Who said my fundamental approach in investing is hopeless, useless? Who who who?

However, OTB’s portfolio return 55%, way above the two portfolios above. So how? Can you say OTB recommended lap sap stocks. OTB was under attack by more , many more people than I encountered. What I can say is “well done OTB”.

Now I want to reiterate here again, the out-performance of all the above could have been a big portion due to luck factor while of course their skill could also be a big factor. If not how could they out-performed the market by such a wide margin?

One thing I notice that OTB has the most number of big winners (>50% return), Prestariang, Naim, Huayang, Alam and KHSB. Kcchong has a number of big winners too in Pintaras, Jobstreet, Kimlun and Prestariang. Fat Cat has the biggest winner in Poweroot (108%).

My conclusion is as OTB is a technician, trading stocks basing on momentum could yield better return in a bull market.

So is technical analysis always better than fundamental analysis? Yes, in this particular six-eight months when the stock market is on the rise, a good run indeed. Is technical analysis always a better approach is investing. No, I don’t agree. Bear in mind that OTB is a good technician compared to many novice ones. Well I know many people would not agree with me. I expect that. But we can always discuss sometime later if anyone wish to.

TeckChuan Lee,
Looking at the tabulations you have made for Star, it does appear that it is a good company to invest in.

Actually it should be doing well as most English papers readers would have bought Star as the daily paper to read. There is not much competition from other English papers. I used to buy this paper every day last time. But now I am not living in Malaysia, so no more buying. But the thing is if I am still there, I wouldn't be buying it any more. First I do not like the paper being controlled by MCA. And it is being used as a political tool. I dislike that. I think many people also feel the same. So I prefer to read online news now. I even subscribe to Malaysiakini. If Star can be independent of political influence from MCA, I think it will do better.

Putting that aside, we now look at how has it been performing. First it has some growth in its revenue and earnings, not much but respectable. It has very good operating efficiencies, with ROE and ROIC of 18% and 14% respectively from your tabulations. Not sure why ROIC has dropped so much from the 20s previously.

Best Star has very good cash flows. Its quality of earnings is good with CFFO always larger than NI. It has very good free cash flow, more than 10% of revenue and invested capital. this is what I like most.

With a PE ratio of 9.1 and enterprise value 10 time ebit, i think it is not overly expensive in view of its business and operating efficiencies.

Wait until Star get away from MCA, then maybe I will invest in it.

Bursa is a jungle out there. You want to speculate and make money in Bursa? 说来容易做起来难

Easy said than done. Trading and speculation is a zero sum game. Think about who are you betting against?

Insiders, manipulators, experts chartists, institutional speculators, individual experts in technical analysis. So where to place yourselves against them?


“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.”
― Warren Buffett

There is one book by Pat Dorsey, "The Five Rules
for Successful Stock Investing", this is also a very good book for all levels.