Posted by CityTrader > Jul 23, 2013 09:49 AM | Report Abuse

Hi kcchongnz

I happened to come across this formula before & at that times, i was not interested of FA & formula is as below:-

(ROE/expected return in %) x (total equity/equity to common shares).
This formula is used to predict the share price. What is your opinion?


Not very sure of what your formula is, but definitely is not a formula to predict share price. Predicting share price is not an easy thing. Very very few people in the world can predict share price correctly and consistently. Paul the octopus had already died.

But I do know of an intuitive formula, which looks similar but not, to gauge the value of a stock, ie

Value of a stock=ROE/Expected return * net asset backing per share

Or V=ROE/[E]R * common shareholder equity/no. of shares

Why does a company buys back its own shares?
Posted by houseofordos > Jul 23, 2013 12:26 AM | Report Abuse
Company (MFCB) also does seem to be quite active buying back its shares. A large amount of its cash (CFFO) is used for this purpose. I m not sure if the rate of buy back is normal... could someone advise ?It could mean that management believes the price is undervalued.

Does it necessary mean that company buys back its share that its share price is definitely undervalued?

I know of a company named KNM which used to buy back its shares from borrowing money from the banks or from money from right issues. I did not see the share price was undervalued as its operating efficiencies were deteriorating, very poor cash flow and no free cash flow. Why did they do that?

They did that because the major shareholders wanted to send a signal (but a misleading one) to the public that the share price was undervalue and they could sell their own personal shares at a high price to others.

But you are right, most of the time the company buys back its own shares because they themselves know the company very well and that the share price is undervalued in relation to its value. They should only do that if they have nothing better to do with the free cash flows, and definitely a no no from borrowed money.

Buying back its own shares in the market reduces the number of shares outstanding in the market. The same amount of earnings are shared by lesser amount of shares, and hence higher EPS. Any dividend to be declared also shared by lesser number of shares and hence higher DY. Hence generally the share price rises with lesser shares outstanding.

Having the ability to buy back share is a good way of returning some cash to the shareholders.

So is share buyback good for MFCB shareholders. The answer should be obvious.

steve, good to see that you too are together in the gallery shouting and peddling for the same horse again.

Yeah this is between both of us, and nothing to do with you. It started because you told me he is a con man, which I corrected you that it was not right for you to do so. Remember?

Anyway, good luck to you.

Wow, learn something new to compare share price of companies and search for value.

Posted by CityTrader > Jul 22, 2013 09:06 PM | Report Abuse
Hi kcchonhgnz
i vetted the finanacial statements of MFCB fy ended 31 dec 2012 & the fig i saw is not tallied with u eg below:-
net profit= 93,662
profit attributes to owner of the co=57,927
so which one did u use?
Your CFFO also different from the report; 115,207
Can u pls enlighten me?
TQ

CityTrader, you got me again. I hope certain character won't start calling me names again. You know lah, si-roti-canai-pusing etc.

But I check again the figures from Bursa website, and I found the same figures. Did you use the Annual report which could be different from mine because mine is the financial statements (unaudited) when first published in March 2013? If so then your is the more accurate one.

However, again there is not much difference. Remember what I just said? Finance and investment is not an exact science. But watch out, some companies have the habit of amending their financial report, that the audited report could be very much different from when the results were first announced.

Which profit to use, the net profit or the profit attributed to the common share holders, and the ROE? I have just explained above.

Posted by tonylim > Jul 22, 2013 03:05 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, use your periscope, no rear mirror. You said it, dude

tonylim, let me ask you when you drive a car, don't you use your rear mirror? If the answer is negative, I have to give your a friendly warning. It is extremely dangerous when the road condition changes; when you have to overtake a slow moving car, the traffic light turns yellow before you stop abruptly, when an animal suddenly appear before you etc.

Do you use a periscope when you drive? I also have some advice here. Not much point using it to see too far away while driving. The far away road condition or hazards would not be the same as you approach them. It is better to concentrate using your windscreen, yeah also your rear mirrors.

Posted by CityTrader > Jul 22, 2013 08:43 PM | Report Abuse
Hi kcchongnz
Return on Equity = Net Income/Shareholder's Equity
why do some ppl say the correct way is ROE=57,091/227,756=25% but teckchuan uses 34490/202,553=17%.
Since the difference is quite big, i need to seek yr clarification.

Citytrader, damn good question! You know what? I need help too. I ain't an accountant. Any accountants or others knowledgeable to help?

My novice view is you see the financial statement is a consolidated one with a subsidiary's (or subsidiaries) financial statement "consolidated" into YTLE's. Hence there is this minority interest which is subtracted to obtain the net income attributed to the common shareholders of YTLE.

As you are looking at the angle of the common shareholder of YTLE, the right ROE, I think, should be (NI attributed to common shareholders/common shareholder equity), or 17%.

The higher 25% for ROE for (Total NI/total equity) could be due to the higher operating numbers of that subsidiary.

I need confirmation of my above opinion too.

I first started this thread as a platform to "discuss" about finance and investment with a critic of mine for learning purpose. However, he never show up here. I am happy to discuss about investment with anybody here, hoping that I can learn from others too.

yeowyc, the numbers you used are slightly different from my numbers. Did you use the trailing twelve month results or the one I used for year ending 31/12/2012 from Bursa website? But it doesn't matter as the difference is insignificant. I always say in finance and investment, there is no need to be precise. There are too many subjective elements in financial statements, assumptions etc.

Your computations are all correct. I am surprised that you even used Dupont analysis, an excellent way to dissect the ROE of a company.

ROE of a company like EAH with little tangible asset of 14% is nothing to shout about. Asset light companies which assets are made up of intangible such human resources, brand, monopolies etc typically have very high ROE of 50%, 100%. Look at Berjaya toto, Jobstreet, Prestariang, etc.

EAH's CFFO is only 3.7m as compared to its earnings of 8.6m, or just 43%. The year before was horrific, just 8%. You say you have so much earnings, but where is the hard cash? Show me the cash! So what it earned was tied up in receivables, 33m in total, whether people really owe them or not, or if truly, when are they paying? Are they going to pay or not? Hey, you only earn 8.6m, and received hard cash of only 3.7m, and people owe you 33m! See the horror? Is this business done correctly or not?

So from the miserable amount of 3.7m, company needs money for capital expenses to grow its business, doesn't EAH?

3.1m was spent on R&D and purchase of PPE, only 600 thousand is left. The previous year, it has to find another 1.7m for capex. So got to find money somewhere and where got money to pay dividend, to pay down debts, or do some investments?

"Why is Custom not implementing the mandatory use of RFID? Is it because RFID is too efficient, so much so, that corruption and other kinds of cheating will be hard hit once RFID is used. Or is it because RFID is useless and cannot be used."

Ben, this is called thinking out-of-the-box. Very creative. The answer is clear. Good one.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 21, 2013 08:43 AM | Report Abuse X

Hibiscus, cliq, sona, wonderful SPAC, all in the fantastic oil and gas industry, or are they?

These are all murder holes! SPAC is the short from of Selling Promises And Craziness. Best deal for investment bankers.

Think about it!
1) Would a promising company need to do deal or merge with SPAC, or rather it just go public through a IPO on its own merits?
2) SPAC no doubt has some seemingly successful business people behind them. Are you sure they too will succeed in this new ventures? Or they were successful because of luck or through other people? I tend to believe more of the later.
3)Believe in Harvard57 above, those early birds whose cost is so much lower will unload in droves once listed, leaving those poor retail investors holding the hot potato.
4) Investment bankers will be laughing to the banks with your money. They pay themselves multiple times:
a) When they take it public
b) Consultant to the SPAC on retainer as a potential acquisition is sought.
c)When an acquisition is found
d) The one year process when SPAC is seeking shareholders and regulator approvals.

Fees, fees, fees, an ATM machine for the investment bankers. Guess whose money in the ATM machine?

steve, i didn't help you to make money in trading of any share. I hardly talk about share price movement. I never (quite sure of that) recommend anybody to buy any share. all I talk about were the company business, its operating efficiencies, and its value.

As to your statement that "the contend kinda long to investigate what's going on..", I don't agree. If one cares to look at the time and read the content of the postings, they are all crystal clear.

Smartag's quarterly result just came up, very early. This is because there is again no business done the last quarter. Preparing of its financial statement was very easy. Never mind, still have one year's cash reserve to burn.

So when is the custom contract coming?

When is the next right issue?

steve, if you read carefully all the posts in Kfima thread regarding this so called battles, this con man and foul mouth devil is inexcusable.

Of course I know myself I did not modify anything. Is there a ghost who changed those words.

And also as you notice my post was at 12.49pm (with an appended missing post with "revenue" which was at 12.42pm), while the second post, the one with "profit" of "his" was at 12.48pm, was there another ghost helping me to pusing his story so fast; reading "his" post immediately and wrote a response, all within one minute?

I3 administrator, please help. I already couldn't sleep last night because thinking about this ghost. I need you to help me to tell me if this ghost is still there. I also need your help to tell me if this "he", "his" belong to a ghost, or ghosts? If not forever I can't sleep already.

Posted by iafx > Jul 22, 2013 05:04 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 19, 2013 01:27 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong, iafx is a con man? ops i invested much into amprop which he recommended le..

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 19, 2013 01:32 PM | Report Abuse X
steve, I disagree with you saying iafx is a con man. It is your fault to buy amprop on his recommendation. You must take charge of your own decision. Sorry, can't agree with you.
But from the above, deleted his original post and then re-posted a new one, and alleged that I si-tipu pusing, that shows bloody clear that he is not an honest person.
Beware of him as I knew you have been consulting him. He knows nothing about finance and investment.

Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 19, 2013 01:36 PM | Report Abuse
i see...ya i take responsibility of my own decision one. i tot he is ok one. ok la gotta beware liao. thanks for the alert.


steve, I have changed my mind. Yeah, he definitely is a con man. See somebody posted something in here which clearly exposed his con man character.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 21, 2013 03:44 PM | Report Abuse X
Is there ghosts in this thread?

To the administrator of i3, I need your help desperately. Please help.
You see I saw the following post posted here a couple of days ago at 12.42pm as shown in the copied post.

[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!]

You know I am heavily invested in Kumpulan Fima and the person above knows it. So I was scared to dead that Kfima's revenue was sliding, something which I was not aware of. So obviously I need some clarifications from the "one" posted the post. My response was as below:

[Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 19, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse X
[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!]

So my question is what if cpo price continue to slide?

Kfima sliding revenue? This is what I got for Kfima's 12 years revenue. 12 years!!! Is it sliding? Or somebody simply shoot again?
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Revenue 486524 470753 431884 411432 369070 308712 294477 300331 247121 223076 221136 187310]]

Note the time of my response was at 12.49pm, 7 minutes after the post posted by that "person". You know the time lag; not so coincidence that I could read "his" post immediately after he posted mah. And also it took time to write the post, you know. Note also I appended "his" post which the time showed 12.42pm?

But to my horror, I was shocked by the following post accusing me of doing "such bad thing to modify "his" post, "bogus cerita" and called me name,you know lah, that "si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai" thingy.

[ Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai!! u modified other's comment to make up bogus cerita? aiyoyoo.... y do such bad thing? ok lah ok lah, kfima no.1, kfima fly to $10, if that make u a better person.]

So I quickly apologize loh, you know lah, no good to pusing "his" post.

And he came with another post as below.

[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 08:12 PM | Report Abuse
my original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? kcchongnz is clearly once again pusing his cerita, anyone still wanna take her word seriously so be it
so call live in NZ? pui pui pui! one hell of sickening liar!]

This time serious oh! See the word "her" "he" used on me (I got kukuchiw one you know), and the "pui, pui, pui" and the "sickening liar"! I very pantang of other people's saliva one. And I am not sick either, not that I know of myself.

So the help I need from you is how come when I copy and paste "his" original post, it was "revenue", and later it was "profit" as below.

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:48 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding profit and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

Mega First? Interesting!

Posted by Jaack1 > Jul 20, 2013 03:31 PM | Report Abuse
Dear Mr KC Chong,
MFCB (MEGA FIRST)
MFCB has always been profitable, Net Cash, pays good dividend, sustainable industry, etc., The only concern is they have huge exposure investing in the market.
What is you view on MFCB (Mega First)?
Tks/Rgds
Jaack

Mega First Corporation Berhad (MFCB) is principally engaged in the provision of management services. It operates in five divisions: Power, Property, Limestone, Engineering and Investment Holding. The Power segment builds, owns and operates power plants.

The main earner is the power division which owns two power plants, one in China and the other in Sabah which provide steady income for MFCB of more than 70% of the total profit of the company. It operates one of the largest limestone hill reserves of more than 100 acres in Perak. It is also one of the country’s largest producers of lime products.

MFCB’s revenue and net profit averages about 620m and 100m respectively for the last two years. There is not much growth in the company. Hence MFCB is best evaluated with ColdEye’s 5 yardsticks of value investing to see if it is a reasonable company offering at an attractive price.

MFCB has a reasonable ROE of 12% which meets my minimum requirement of return. However, as MFCB is cash rich company with 126m cash sitting in its balance sheet, and 240m other investments in investment properties and associates, it is best evaluate its operating efficiencies in term of ROIC; and its ROIC is fantastic at 20%, much higher than the cost of capital.

MFCB’s quality of earnings is good with CFFO 124% of net income. It also produces huge amount of free cash flow, 15% and 23% of revenue and invested capital respectively, which is way above my bench marks. Hence MFCB is able to increase its annual dividend payment yearly, now to 8 sen a share. This gives a good dividend yield of 4.6%.

With these nice metrics, it is a surprise that the valuation of MFCB is undemanding. PE ratio is only 6.8, and Price-to-NTA only at 0.7. If you look at the valuation of the firm, it is much more attractive with enterprise value less than its ebit, or an earnings yield (ebit/EV) of 100%!

So is MFCB a hidden gem?


5 yardstick of investing by Cold Eye
Mega First 1.730 22/07/2013
1 ROE 12.5% >12% Yes
Net profit 92818
Equity 744657
2 Cash flows
CFFO 114683 124% Yes
FCF/Revenue 15% >5% Yes
FCF/IC 23% >10% Yes
3 PE ratio 6.8 <10 Yes
Price 1.730
EPS 0.256
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 8.0
Dividend yield 4.6% >3% Yes
5 Price/NTA 0.70 <0.8 Yes
NTA 2.47

Yeah pradeep, i trust you. But i am very worried. Because there is ghost around. You know the ghost who deleted a 1242pm post 3 days ago and replaced it with a 12.48pm post.

You know about the 12.42pm post, the ghost claimed that Kfima's revenue is sliding, but when I checked, Kfima's revenue has been increasing every year since 2002! Even last year, its revenue still increased by 3%. So I posted a comment at 12.49pm arguing that Kfima's revenue is not sliding. But to my horror, there was this post posted by a ghost at 12.49pm, the same post as that of 12.42pm, but just a slight change of the "revenue" to "Profit", just one minute before my post.

Because of that, I kena kuat kuat from another ghost(?). He pui pui pui at me. Calling me names like sitpu-roticanai-pusing, sickening liar, ass bug, "her" (I got kukuchiew one) etc etc.

I was so diappointed about Kfima, not because of its performance, because Kfima having 30% of its revenue in palm oil, will sure suffer a little setback one from profit due to the low price of palm oil. Hack, Kfima's profit has been rising every year except a small droop last year. Eventually the profit will rise accordingly with the recovery of palm oil price. Don't you think so?

But because of it owning Kfima, and because I wanted to clarify that the revenue of Kfima is not sliding, I kena kuat kuat.

pradeep, because of that, do you think I should sell my Kfima?

click, click, click, the credit card machine is clicking again, with wealth fallen into the murder hole again.

teck Chuan, try to find this book.

What’s Behind the Numbers by John Del Vecchio and Tom Jacobs

Invested capital means the capital invested in the ordinary or normal business of the company. It does not include excess cash which is not required for the operations. It also doesn't include capital used for investment in associate and jv companies which the their financial statements are not "consolidated" into that of the company. Other investments such as investment in quoted or unquoted shares, investment properties (for company which rental income is not its ordinary business) also should be excluded.

CSC Steel, wah good man, high dividend woh!
Posted by mlg123 > Jul 21, 2013 12:05 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz,
can you please share your opinion on CSC steel?

I invested in this stock some time in 2009 as I was attracted by the high dividend yield of 8% at that time. Little did I know that I made another mistake again, thinking that it is a good strategy to invest in high dividend yield stock.

CSC Steel 1.33 20/07/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Price 1.28 1.19 1.24 1.63 1.65 1.01 1.30
Return of stock 3.9% 11.8% 7.3% -18.4% -19.4% 31.7% 2.3%
CAR 171% 24.9% 7.3% -9.7% -6.9% 7.1% 0.5%
Dividend 0 6.3% 5.6% 8.0% 12.1% 6.4% 9.2%
Stock appreciation 171% 18.6% 1.6% -17.6% -19.1% 0.7% -8.8%

As shown in the above stock price of CSC from 5 years ago. The total return of the stock was terrible as compared to the market. For example, investors who bought CSC three years ago would have lost a total of 19.4%, or negative 6.9% in compounded annual rate, while the market gained a CAR of about 10%. Another classic example of high dividend yield not necessary a good investment.

CSC’s revenue has been stagnant at about 1.1-1.2 b for the last 8 years, no growth. Its net income in fact has been deteriorating progressively since 2009, from 116.5m to just 37.5m last year. Not good at all. So I will straightaway rule CSC out as a good company. So the only thing I can do is to assess if CSC is a value stock using the 5 yardsticks of ColdEye. We must always stand behind the shoulders of giants mah!

5 yardstick of investing by Cold Eye
CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD 1.33
1 ROE 3.6% No <10%
Net profit 28006
Equity 773097
2 Cash flows
CFFO 63129 Yes CFFO/NI 225%
FCF 24054 Neutral FCF/IC 4.2%
3 PE ratio 17.7 No >15
Price 1.33
EPS 0.0751
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 7.0
Dividend yield 5.3% Yes >3.5%
5 Price/NTA 1.04 OK
NTA 1.281

CSC failed miserably in ROE with a very low ROE of just 3.6%. It has substantial amount of cash sitting in its balance sheet doing noting useful. Its ROIC is not fantastic too at 9%. Last year cash flows is ok, but not the year before. The best part is its dividend of 7 sen, or a yield of 5.3%. However don’t fall into this trap of high dividend yield strategy again as explained before.

Valuation wise, CSC is not that cheap at a PE ratio of 17.7 and a P/B of 1.0. So for me there is no attraction to invest in CSC. Its earnings yield (ebit/EV) of 11% is also not an inducement to shout buy, buy, buy too.

CSC’s first quarter 2012 results improved substantially, but to me it is still too early to pass another judgement.

fsoto, wah what time oh? You wake up so early watching lefty,tiggy, and westie ah?

yungshen1, you can check from i3 my portfolio posted by Tang KW if you are really interested. Some of them i have sold off and added some based on the recommendations of forumers here, which i have checked their fundamentals also before i buy. You know lah, if i were to put my hard earned money in the stock of a company, i must be certain that their business must be doing well, and the management is really taking care of all shareholders. I can't depend on what bullshit stories told by others, including the major shareholder of the company. We must rely on facts and not fiction. Agree or not?

But I tell you, I also hold some stocks which didn't go up as much as the overall market. One particular one is SKP Res. In fact I am in the red also in this stock. but I check and check its fundamentals and i didn't see why its stock price should drop, except for the reason that the major shareholder has been disposing his huge holdings. So i still keep loh.

So if i see if the ship is leaking, rather than repair it which is tough, i go for another ship. Or if the ship is good but other people for Titanic, i still stay in the same ship loh.

CityTrader

1) In financal Report, Engtex belongs to "Group" or "Company"?

ALWAYS USE GROUP RESULTS. THE GROUP CONSISTS OF THE COMPANY PLUS ALL SUBSIDIARIES. IT IS THE GROUP WHICH IS LISTED AND YOU INVEST IN. COMPANY IS JUST PART OF IT. COULD BE JUST A MANAGEMENT OUTFIT.

2) Group if i use common sense, should mean all subsidaries, am i right?

ANSWERED ABOVE.

3) So now i want to calculate the EPSGR of Engtex, then which report i have to look at' "Group" or "Company"?

IS IT CLEAR NOW?

TQ if u can engligthen me & below is your posting which i checked the Cash Flow Statement but i couldnt get the same figure 190m & 200m as yours, so i wondered if i was actually on your same page & again, pls enlighten me.

HUA YANG'S LAST ANNUAL FINANCIAL RESULTS? FIGURES ARE ROUNDED OFF. NO NEED TO BE TOO PRECISE AS INVESTMENT IS AN ART MORE THAN A SCIENCE OR MATHS. 190 IS THE NET CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS FROM THE "STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS". 200M IS THE SUM OF "PURCHASE OF PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT" PLUS THE "LAND AND AND DEVELOPMENT COSTS'. THIS FIGURES ARE UNDER THE "CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES". FOR MOST COMPANIES WHICH ARE NOT PROPERTY COMPANIES, USUALLY JUST PPE, UNLESS IT IS A PALM OIL COMPANY, THEN ADD THE BIOLOGICAL ASSETS. OR IF IT IS TECH COMPANY, "SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST' ETC

In additions, TQ for your continuous postings & honestly i didnt pay attention to your previous postings, my apology as i didnt believe in value-investing & not even bothered what the hack the companies do until recently that i had the same wavelength with Ooi that TA + FA = Success.

GOOD ON YOU. ALWAYS REMEMBER, WHEN YOU INVEST (NOT TRADING OR GAMBLING), YOU MUST KNOW THERE IS A COMPANY BEHIND THE STOCK. SO KNOWING THE BUSINESS OF THE COMPANY IS ESSENTIAL.


Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 20, 2013 03:28 PM | Report Abuse

From the cash flow statement under the "Cash flows from operations", you see that the 2012 results shows that the cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) is 190m. This is the net cash the company received during 2012; eg cash payment from house buyers less the operating costs in cash payout. From the "cash flow from investing activities", you see that the company spends about 200m in acquisition of property, plant and equipment and "Land and Development costs". That 200m is the capital expenses for Hua Yang

Is there ghosts in this thread?

To the administrator of i3, I need your help desperately. Please help.

You see I saw the following post posted here a couple of days ago at 12.42pm as shown in the copied post.

[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!]

You know I am heavily invested in Kumpulan Fima and the person above knows it. So I was scared to dead that Kfima's revenue was sliding, something which I was not aware of. So obviously I need some clarifications from the "one" posted the post. My response was as below:

[Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 19, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse X
[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!]

So my question is what if cpo price continue to slide?

Kfima sliding revenue? This is what I got for Kfima's 12 years revenue. 12 years!!! Is it sliding? Or somebody simply shoot again?
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Revenue 486524 470753 431884 411432 369070 308712 294477 300331 247121 223076 221136 187310]]

Note the time of my response was at 12.49pm, 7 minutes after the post posted by that "person". You know the time lag; not so coincidence that I could read "his" post immediately after he posted mah. And also it took time to write the post, you know. Note also I appended "his" post which the time showed 12.42pm?

But to my horror, I was shocked by the following post accusing me of doing "such bad thing to modify "his" post, "bogus cerita" and called me name,you know lah, that "si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai" thingy.

[ Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai!! u modified other's comment to make up bogus cerita? aiyoyoo.... y do such bad thing? ok lah ok lah, kfima no.1, kfima fly to $10, if that make u a better person.]

So I quickly apologize loh, you know lah, no good to pusing "his" post.

And he came with another post as below.

[Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 08:12 PM | Report Abuse
my original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? kcchongnz is clearly once again pusing his cerita, anyone still wanna take her word seriously so be it
so call live in NZ? pui pui pui! one hell of sickening liar!]

This time serious oh! See the word "her" "he" used on me (I got kukuchiw one you know), and the "pui, pui, pui" and the "sickening liar"! I very pantang of other people's saliva one. And I am not sick either, not that I know of myself.

So the help I need from you is how come when I copy and paste "his" original post, it was "revenue", and later it was "profit" as below.

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:48 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding profit and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

Of course I know myself I did not modify anything. Is there a ghost who changed those words.

And also as you notice my post was at 12.49pm (with an appended missing post with "revenue" which was at 12.42pm), while the second post, the one with "profit" of "his" was at 12.48pm, was there another ghost helping me to pusing his story so fast; reading "his" post immediately and wrote a response, all within one minute?

I3 administrator, please help. I already couldn't sleep last night because thinking about this ghost. I need you to help me to tell me if this ghost is still there. I also need your help to tell me if this "he", "his" belong to a ghost, or ghosts? If not forever I can't sleep already.

tonywong,
stay out of this call warrant thingy until you have enough knowledge of this stuff. My posting is for education purpose.

Also i3 is a hazardous place for you to get advice of what stocks to buy (read your the other post claiming yourself a newbie), unless you have enough knowledge about reading and interpreting financial statements to check all those so-called recommendations.

Just an advice. You don't have to follow.

Is buying Maybank CW a punting (gambling) or speculating endeavour?

Gambling involves taking a risk when the odds are against you; e.g. betting on a lottery or playing a slot machine.

Successful speculation implies taking risks when the odds are in your favour; e.g. a good mah-jong player.

At the close of Bursa on 21 July, 2013, Maybank share is at RM10.64 while one of its call warrant CW is at 29.5 sen. CW has the following profile.

Warrant Price Ex-Price Ex-Ratio Expiry date Premium Gearing
CW 0.295 9.000 5.000 30/09/2013 -1.6% 7.2

The table below shows the profit/loss at the expiry of CW on 30 September 2013 base on the above.

Maybank Price 8.51 9.04 9.58 10.11 10.64 11.17 11.70 12.24 12.77
Gain in Maybank -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Gain in CW -100.0% -97.0% -60.9% -24.9% 11.2% 47.3% 83.3% 119.4% 155.5%

It shows the loss/gain in CW for increments of 5% percentage changes of Maybank share price in both directions from its present price of RM10.64 now.

When Maybank share goes up or down by 5%, CW gains 47.3% or loses 24.9% respectively. When Maybank share goes up or down by 15%, CW gains 120% or loses 97% respectively.

Please also note that one can sell CW any time before expiry, and not necessary to hold it until maturity.

So do you think buying Maybank CW now is a speculating or a punting (gambling) activity?


Disclaimer: This is not a post to entice anyone to dabble in call warrants.

frsoweto, even Himalaya Mountains already become shoter, what do you think of yourself?

A company's business is the aggregate of all its businesses of the company and in all its subsidiaries. It's performance is shown in its financial statement of the "group". This is what as an investor, should concern with.

cliq, cliq, cliq, the beautiful sound of a credit card machine. The sound signifies that your money in the bank is diminishing, slowly and surely.

Hibiscus, cliq, sona, wonderful SPAC, all in the fantastic oil and gas industry, or are they?

These are all murder holes! SPAC is the short from of Selling Promises And Craziness. Best deal for investment bankers.

Think about it!
1) Would a promising company need to do deal or merge with SPAC, or rather it just go public through a IPO on its own merits?
2) SPAC no doubt has some seemingly successful business people behind them. Are you sure they too will succeed in this new ventures? Or they were successful because of luck or through other people? I tend to believe more of the later.
3)Believe in Harvard57 above, those early birds whose cost is so much lower will unload in droves once listed, leaving those poor retail investors holding the hot potato.
4) Investment bankers will be laughing to the banks with your money. They pay themselves multiple times:
a) When they take it public
b) Consultant to the SPAC on retainer as a potential acquisition is sought.
c)When an acquisition is found
d) The one year process when SPAC is seeking shareholders and regulator approvals.

Fees, fees, fees, an ATM machine for the investment bankers. Guess whose money in the ATM machine?

Invested capital means capital you have invested in the business.

You need money to buy land for property development for property companies. so yes.

Intangible asset? arguable, I ignore.

Investment in subsidiaries, other investments. this is investing in another company. Its result doesn't appear in the operating business of the company. It is not "consolidated" in the financial statement. No

Ooi,
My comments are all based on fundamentals; it is all about the business of a company, never or seldom about its share price.

I never have doubted you make a lot of money based on technical analysis. I believe you are sharing your view truthfully and your conviction of what you do.

It is just that we have different ways of trying to make some excess return from the market. But I have to say that my way is investing and you way is trading, though you are also investing in some companies.

Nothing wrong with trading as long as one knows what he is doing. I do even more risky stuff, punting in call warrants as you know, but that is based on probability, not just simply punt. Few believe I can make some money (I never say I made money in my posts) even in this uneven playing field. But it could be because I am lucky. However I strongly discourage anyone here to punt call warrants.

You will notice i make comments totally out of self-interest. Yes, I too sometimes talk a little bit more of stocks I have because I too have conviction of them. Nowadays I mainly response to requests of my comments of stocks, most of them I never heard off, and hence never owned. There are also many seeking my comments purely on education purpose which I gladly provide. Most of the time, they feel thankful about it, so one gets satisfaction from there. In the process I learn something which is valuable, some which I have misconception before.

This world is filled with all kind of people. Suck it up that not everybody will appreciate you. There are a handful of people also attacking me for which I don't really know why. Most of the time, I just ignore them and not waste my time on them. You know what, a number of them even become my cyber friends after a few sparring between us.

Many will notice that I won't let just one particular attacker of mine get away. He is the only one in i3 now. This guy once and while try to ridicule me. I find he is so shallow (but yet want to attack me frequently), I also try to have some fun sparring with him.

Posted by Jaack1 > Jul 20, 2013 03:31 PM | Report Abuse
Dear Mr KC Chong,

MFCB (MEGA FIRST)

MFCB has always been profitable, Net Cash, pays good dividend, sustainable industry, etc., The only concern is they have huge exposure investing in the market.
What is you view on MFCB (Mega First)?

Tks/Rgds
Jaack

Jaack, i strongly suggest you give a try like what Teck Chuan did for Focus Point. I can guide you. MFCB looks interesting.

Total equity Total debts Total capital
53530 21317 74847
Percentage 72% 28% 100%
Cost 12% 8%
WACC 8.6% 2.3% 10.9%

WACC=cost of equity*percent of total capital+cost of debt*percent

I just use cost of equity as 12%, the return I required for investing in this company. And cost of debt (after tax) as 8%

So WACC is 10.9%

From the cash flow statement under the "Cash flows from operations", you see that the 2012 results shows that the cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) is 190m. This is the net cash the company received during 2012; eg cash payment from house buyers less the operating costs in cash payout. From the "cash flow from investing activities", you see that the company spends about 200m in acquisition of property, plant and equipment and "Land and Development costs". That 200m is the capital expenses for Hua Yang.

that means Hua Yang receives net cash of 190m from the operations, buy spend 200m for capital expenses. So the company, before doing any dividend distributions, investing in properties and subsidiary company, it is short of 10m for the year. So that negative 10m is the free cash flow. Meaning the company doesn't have any money left (FCF) to do other investments and distribute dividend.

So where to get those money? Yes, from more borrowing. Because Hua Yang spent more money for capital expenses.

Generally I prefer a company with positive FCF. But in this cash it doesn't mean it is no good. I think it is more good than otherwise. Because Hua Yang spent money in development of more housing projects, which likely to make more profit and cash flow in the future.

house, yes I make some money from CBIP. it is a great company. Thanks for your introduction of it to us some time ago, remember? One of the reasons I am always here is I am hoping to scout some good companies to invest through others. This i found it was very fruitful for me.

I have posted the long and short term returns of Kfima and CBIP as below:

Kfima 2.13 19/07/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Price 2.10 2.02 2.26 1.85 1.00 0.64 0.42
Return of stock 1.4% 5.4% -5.8% 15.1% 113.0% 235.4% 407.1%
CAR 45% 11.2% -5.8% 7.3% 28.7% 35.3% 38.4%

CBIP 2.91 19/07/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year 4 year 5 year
Price 2.66 2.73 2.74 1.99 1.51 1.51 1.78
Return of stock 9.4% 6.6% 6.2% 46.2% 93.4% 92.2% 63.5%
CAR 933% 13.6% 6.2% 20.9% 24.6% 17.7% 10.3%

Actually CBIP performs very well for the recent short term, out-performed Kfima easily. Of course the other guy won't be able to figure out the numbers. I doubt he can even comprehend the table i have computed. In the long term, Kfima performed much better.

But in investing, really, we must know that there is a company behind the stock. Hence we have to look at the business and operation efficiencies of the company. Not every time about its share price.

Posted by CityTrader > Jul 20, 2013 12:54 PM | Report Abuse
Tqvm for yr prompt reply, kcchongnz. N tq for yr kind sharing or rather say imparting your analysis knowledge to me. I m only a ta who trades without knowing anything about the co.

Citytrader, you are welcomed. I am trying to learn from others too. How I wish I also have your TA skill.

Posted by iafx > Jul 20, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse
nobody :D. but for the other one, original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai copied and MODIFIED other's comment to show she is right. read for yourself above, she even CHANGED the time stamp in her copy to PUSING.

You deleted it and posted a new comment just one minute before me which I missed it. I even stupidly apologized thinking that I have said something wrong. But after reading through the postings again, I said "I got the feeling that probably, I said probably, while I was writing my comments, you found something wrong in your statement and you corrected it. So no big deal. But I did not pusing. That was your original statement which you could have deleted."

That looking at the times of postings, that is exactly what happened. So why are you still saying "si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai copied and MODIFIED other's comment to show she is right"? Why are you still using demeaning term like "ass bug"? What kind of person are you?

Of course what comes out from your mouth won't hurt me. Not at all. Not from you. Just to show what kind of person you are!

Let's let other people judge.

Teck Chuan, ebit is obtained after deducting D&A. So I did not miss anything, did I?

Return of invested capital=ebit*(1-tax rate)

Not ebitda*(1-tax rate)

anbz, you are a good friend of this iafx. Can you please read the posts ans see if your good friend calling me names like "her", "si-tipu-pusing", "pui, pui, pui", "sickening liar", "ass bug" etc are fair? Please, please.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 20, 2013 12:33 PM | Report Abuse X

Hey iafx, let me show you that you are a great liar. (sori ah the rest, I need to clear my name here. He called me si-roti-canai-pusing)

At 12.42pm yesterday, you posted that statement of Kfima's sliding "revenue" (See my post just below). I then posted a post at 12.49, showing Kfima's 12 years revenue and question you where is the sliding "revenue". But just a minute before that at 12.48pm, you posted a new post, and deleted the old one (which I have appended in my post), and changed the "revenue" to "profit".

It is just impossible for me to think and write the post in response to your new post in just one minute, even if I have seen your new post immediately. So it was a coincidence that the two posts, mine and your new one were written and posted simultaneously. So is it right to accuse me of pusing?

It was actually alright for you to admit that you have made an error in "revenue" instead of "profit" and changed your post. Absolutely nothing wrong. We all are human and human being always make mistakes. But you have chosen to accuse me of pusing.

What kind of a person are you? Yeah now I agreed with someone who called you a con man. Remember I defended you when he called you that name?

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 19, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse X
Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

So my question is what if cpo price continue to slide?

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:48 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding profit and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

CityTrader, all information is public. You can obtain them from bursa website.

No they are not in my finger tips. I need to go to the Bursa website and enter the financial statements one by one into my spreadsheet.

Table 1 IS'!B20/'Table 2 BS'!B24 is the ROA for 2013
'Table 1 IS'!C20/'Table 2 BS'!C24 is the ROA in 2012

So 'Table 1 IS'!B20/'Table 2 BS'!B24-'Table 1 IS'!C20/'Table 2 BS'!C24

is equal to change of ROA from 2012 to 2013

Hey iafx, let me show you that you are a great liar. (sori ah the rest, I need to clear my name here. He called me si-roti-canai-pusing)

At 12.42pm yesterday, you posted that statement of Kfima's sliding "revenue" (See my post just below). I then posted a post at 12.49, showing Kfima's 12 years revenue and question you where is the sliding "revenue". But just a minute before that at 12.48pm, you posted a new post, and deleted the old one (which I have appended in my post), and changed the "revenue" to "profit".

It is just impossible for me to think and write the post in response to your new post in just one minute, even if I have seen your new post immediately. So it was a coincidence that the two posts, mine and your new one were written and posted simultaneously. So is it right to accuse me of pusing?

It was actually alright for you to admit that you have made an error in "revenue" instead of "profit" and changed your post. Absolutely nothing wrong. We all are human and human being always make mistakes. But you have chosen to accuse me of pusing.

What kind of a person are you? Yeah now I agreed with someone who called you a con man. Remember I defended you when he called you that name?

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 19, 2013 12:49 PM | Report Abuse X
Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding revenue and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

So my question is what if cpo price continue to slide?

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 12:48 PM | Report Abuse
cbip share price is weak now, this is a good chance to switch (or split) before cpo price rebound, what would be the price of cbip vs kfima when cpo finally up? cbip stands better chance to payout more div compare to kfima sliding profit and do nothing cash, cbip share price gained proven far better than kfima over the years. yr $ yr choice!

ROA='Table 1 IS'!B18/'Table 2 BS'!B24

Cell Table 1 IS'!B18 is "Net Income" in income statement
Cell Table 2 BS'!B24 is "total assets" in balance sheet

In the "Piotroski" spreadsheet, that is Change in ROA, not ROA and it is also not equal to "Equity / Total Asset"

sense maker, thanks for the clarifications. That is the beauty of the forum here, learning from each other.

I could be wrong in thinking that Focus Point have recognized the franchise fees (appears to be 5 years in the future) as profit for the current year. Profit should be recognized for the relevant year, and not in the future years.

So Focus may not have done that. And most likely not. I didn't go through in details.

If these two items are just balance sheet items, yeah, no issue.

Posted by iafx > Jul 19, 2013 08:12 PM | Report Abuse
my original comment is CLEARLY stated ABOVE all comments!! how to delete and still above kcchongnz's cmment?? kcchongnz is clearly once again pusing his cerita, anyone still wanna take her word seriously so be it

so call live in NZ? pui pui pui! one hell of sickening liar!


Hey how come you know I live (or not live) in NZ one? I only mentioned one or twice in one or two threads. Oh I just remember, you promised to vet through all my postings to see if i copy and paste, bullshit, pusing sini sana.

Hey I have posted 2000 posts now. Found any already? Please share!

Or you prefer to discuss about the basic balance sheet equation Total assets = total liabilities + total equity

Or what about Return of equity, ROE. Or ROIC?

Whatever, I am waiting.

Hey next time come to NZ, cannot "pui, pui pui" one. You get fined you know!

Teck Chuan, you got everything computed correctly except the return of assets. A return of assets of 55% is too good to be true.

Return of assets=Net Income/Total asset=6019/98895=6.1%.

I also agree with all your “pros” and “cons” comments on focus Point.

Invested capital=Fixed assets (PPE)+non-currentreceivables+inventories +current receivables-payables=61475

Return of invested capital=ebit*(1-tax rate)=10402*(1-36%)=6606
Hence ROIC=6606/61475=10.7%.

So ROIC is about the WACC, ok lah.

One thing you notice that there is this item “deferred income” in both the current and long term liabilities sections. This to me mean that they have booked in future income, even up to 5 years from the franchise fees I think. So is their current profit accurate or overstated?

So if your opinion is FP is a reasonably good company with ROE and ROIC at about the cost of capitals, then the next step is to find out if the price right. Will you?

I suggest you try using PE, earnings yield (ebit/EV) etc.

The other thing is what is your comments on the durability of its eye care business. What about its growth? I suggest you look at the recent quarterly report to see if there is a rise or fall of their revenue and profit.

lching, thanks, I will take note of your valuable comments

lching, could that be just because of the market condition at that time, probably during the US sublime crisis that the share price collapse as the overall market tanked all over the world; and not because the director deliberately misled the public?