kelvin_ik4u

kelvin_ik4u | Joined since 2014-04-06

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Stock

2019-11-21 19:31 | Report Abuse

If look for better Q419 and whole financial FY2020, it is an opportunity to accumulate. Let see tmr.

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2019-07-26 17:25 | Report Abuse

TP 6.00 by year end 2019. Let see as it goes.

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2019-07-26 10:07 | Report Abuse

Agreed Kpin. Go casino way better. Within less 5min can double up your money or lose all. Simple and fast. No need technical or fundamental analysis, just use based on emotional and feel will do.

Stock

2019-07-26 08:15 | Report Abuse

Don't buy big, coming Q2 result will be poor than last Q119 as CNY season no more + increase gambling taxes on 2019. Just be safe and precaution for it.

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2019-07-25 16:18 | Report Abuse

Opportunity buy at weakness, core fundamental business is improving especially on corporate cost control and lean operational. TM corporate structure change, mgmt proven in revamping to more lean & lower cost operation as proven in Q1'19 with sustainable lean business profit earned for med to long term goal. Compare to Axiata share price 5.12 now, TM has huge potential to go up TP 6.0 and beyond by 2019 as if 2 subsequent Qtrs earning result show +ve and are on track, cheaper in share price comparison vs. Axiata. Big potential here!

Stock

2019-07-25 12:11 | Report Abuse

Buy on weakness. Nothing change on it core business fundamental, aggressive cost cutting is still on track. Within ONE day, all people so fear, urge for profit taking. Once it stabilize, big operator will buy back to filter out all small day trade retailer out. Be steady & patience. Next Qtr result earning will be on track and improve.

Stock

2019-05-23 12:53 | Report Abuse

Great opportunity to buy. I buy more today as I strongly believe this Q119 result is good. If a person look on whole year 2019, with work order & contract increase for oil maintenance companies, definitely Petronas is giving more jobs and sales order to these 5 companies.
For next 3 Quarter Q2, Q3 & Q4 will be impressive and grow higher as long as oil price within $65 to $75 range.

Analyst predict oil supply will shortage for this year 2019, expected oil price will raise to $90 as geopolitical sanction on Iran, Venezuela, Libya & Russia contaminated oil will bring effect to oil supply in 2H2019.

The key here is, will coming OPEC+ meeting this June will increase or maintain oil production. I believe OPEC+ will remain maintain supply, increase it to abit $75 to $80 region.

Trade war trigger by Trump will be a temporary market noise, those fear economy go to recession in end 2019 is ignorant. Trump next president election is mid/end 2020, will it cause it US economic to big drop, affect normal US citizen depress into recession?

A wise man speak before and proven correct in many decades: Be fear when people greedy, be greedy when people fear.

Stock

2019-04-16 09:00 | Report Abuse

With a good sustainable business from Petronas throughout next 3 years of Rm1bil sales work order, it will be wasted if sell for small penny gain. With no monsoon rainy this 1Q19 and subsequent Q2 & Q3, work order sales will increase alot, more offshore work order will increase, thus increase Carimin and related oil gas companies. Profit margin on offshore work order will increase this 1Q19 and moving next Qtr forward.

Understand all people like to make quick earning, hoping can sell now and buy at lower price. What happen if you entirely miss the boat and fly all time high after that? You count the math. All the best..

Stock

2019-03-29 08:58 | Report Abuse

Carimin buy 60% share of Subnautical company, Petronas licensed sub contractor for sub sea maintenance. Hope it a great news to Carimin.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/carimin-acquires-60-percent-stake-subnautica

Stock

2019-03-19 14:24 | Report Abuse

Last Thursday 129.5mil shares had been collected at average 93sen exchange hand. Oil n gas is seasonal trade, Q418 result due to monsoon season less off shore maintenance work. For next 3 years maintenance job of Rm1bil project awarded by Petronas, this biz is very sustainable for mid to long term goal. Expected next qtr result will hit beyond 5sen+ and toward 10sen+ soon.

Stock

2019-03-08 16:34 | Report Abuse

If revisit on Petronas awarded RM3bil sales order to Dayang for next 5 years til 2023, that mean Dayang business revenue is very stable & sustainable for all related awarded 5 oil gas maintenance sector. KYY's TP 3.00 is definitely achievable in short/med term before next Quarter result out to exceed EPS 10.13sen again.

Stock

2019-03-04 19:56 | Report Abuse

Padini back to normal business earning projection after Q2FY19 result out. I believe it shd revise to PE >20 since its fashion brand is a well known among Malaysian and others Asean consumer appetite. Some more it has a predictable earning, stable & sustainable business history proven throughout many years, proven trustworthy management, debts to earning ratio almost zero, consistent dividend quarterly payout + huge cash flow of Rm420mil resource. Compare to others stable Nestle PE 50+, QL 50+, Dlady 30+, Dialog 30+..., I believe Padini revalue to PE>20 is reasonable, has more room for share price to go up higher after fall from highest 6.20 since last 3mth ago.

Assume average EPS 7sen x 4 = 28sen
PE 20 = 5.60... That's 47% room to grow if next Qtr EPS result within 7sen.

For those who less risk taker investors, I believe its a golden opportunity to buy now for this counter before next Quarter result. Expected more stable earning in next coming CNY & Hari Raya holiday for Q3FY19 & Q4FY19.

Stock

2019-02-28 17:19 | Report Abuse

Also dont forget that, before 1QFY19 result out Padini share price was stay strong within 6.00+ range, highest hit 6.20. The potential for Padini to go up further even at current price 3.85 still have plenty room to rise up since it is an consumer sector, much stable than airlines or commodity industry since it is more predictable, stable and sustainable business sector.

Stock

2019-02-28 16:41 | Report Abuse

Padini balance cash for RM426mil with little unsecured and secure long term debts of just RM40mil. Some more debts level improve from RM56mil to RM40mil. Every Qtr dividend payout 2.5sen, total 10sen dividend. Positive cash flow earning, truly a cash cow company generation money. Most important, earning is predictable, stable and sustainable, except for last Q1FY19 h drop due to tax holiday in Jun - Aug time frame last year 2018 whereby people use up all money to buy big gadget, like car and handphone sales. I believe moving forward Quarters ahead its earning is on track and growth beyond 7sen+ above, back to normal sustainable sales volume upside projection.

Stock

2019-02-12 20:23 | Report Abuse

Harta Qtr result is promising, everything on track due to rise in glove sales volume, demand vs supply still in shortage. With coming plant 5 & 6 full swing in 2019 + gaining momentum of new pattern gloves sales, will further improve its future growth of 30% more in term of glove capacity growth by end 2019.

This counter is for medium to long term investor for multi baggar return with good sustainability business growth gain.

Stock

2018-11-14 14:21 | Report Abuse

Wealth transfer from impatience to patience investor!

Stock

2018-11-13 15:27 | Report Abuse

China & HangSeng rebound to +ve now. Majority blue chip turn to Green now! Good sign market go to rebound even ystyd US drop -600pts.

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2018-11-13 09:12 | Report Abuse

Look on business growth and visitors come over to GENM last weekend. Go to GenM and see yourself. Crowded everywhere, Premium outlet, Most F&B no place to seat & pack Casino visitors. Already drop 33% since from 5.20 till now 3.60, what you want to expect? Some more this has not factor in the coming revenue generate from indoor theme part by Nov open & outdoor theme park by 1H19. That's huge potential growth in term of actual business revenue even through tax gaming increase +10%.

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2018-11-09 16:50 | Report Abuse

Does GenM look like Topglove, when one time drop from 12.20 to 8.47, now rebound back to 11.60 (after split t0 5.80 range) even the lawsuit still on-going? Will GENM rebound back higher to 4.50 by year end or after that?

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2018-11-09 16:01 | Report Abuse

Guys, dont always look negative, there always light at the end of tunnel. Mgmt expected indoor Theme park Skytropolis will open in Nov, 2018 before school holiday break in Dec.

Genting Msia - November Highlights:

https://www.rwgenting.com/November-Highlights/

https://www.rwgenting.com/themepark/TheVOID/

Stock

2018-11-05 10:08 | Report Abuse

Tax increase is 10% at worst, after factor in only incurred 6% blended with Gaming + F&B, Hotel, etc . Fund mgr some more not factor in the next year theme park open + visitors arrive. As long as GenM mgmt is strong, proven over the years + growing. There is a safe level to buy for good safety margin. Oppurtunity once in a life time!

Stock

2018-11-05 10:06 | Report Abuse

Follow Warren buffet style. Buy when other people fear, look on the another side. U buying much cheaper price for a good company. Life time opportunity. Current GenM price is once in a lifetime. Way below even last worst past 2008 recession.

Stock

2018-10-17 11:49 | Report Abuse

That's good Kpin. I do loaded big in 4.30 last 2 days as well. Hope the best will hit 5.00

Stock

2018-10-17 10:22 | Report Abuse

Maybank analyst report: Once in a decade opportunity to BUY

Maintain BUY call and MYR5.70 SOP-based TP
Despite GITP Phase 1 approaching construction completion and potentially decent 3Q18 results, GENM’s share price fell 11% since 9 Oct 2018 (-21% YTD) due to fears of a casino tax hike. While this risk cannot be discounted, we gather that the market is imputing an overly onerous casino tax hike of 8-10ppts. GENM is even trading at 1.2x 12M forward P/BV, a multiple not seen since the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago. Risk-reward profile overwhelmingly favours reward, in our view.

Investor have not factor in the huge potential growth in term of its properties upbring so far. With current price almost lowest in a decade after 2009 economic crisis, this is a huge opportunity to buy now.

Skytropolis and 20th Century Fox World set to open soon…
Recall that the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan (GITP), which was launched in Dec 2013, involves two phases. Phase 1 (MYR8.1b) comprises:-
 1,300-room First World Hotel Tower 3 (fully opened in Jun 2015)
 3,600 pax/hr cable car system called Awana Skyway (opened in Dec 2016)
 8,000 car park bays situated mid-hill at Awana (opened in Dec 2016)
 Sky Avenue mall with ~650,000 sqf net leasable area (opened in Dec 2016)
 Sky Plaza two mass gaming floors (opened in Mar 2017)
 Renovation of 448-room Hotel On The Park (opened in Jul 2017)
 Sky Plaza two VIP gaming floors (opened in Sep 2017)
 137-suite Crockfords Hotel (opened in Nov 2017)
 Skytropolis indoor theme park with 24 rides (4Q18)
 20th Century Fox World (20CFW) theme park with 25 rides (2Q19)

Phase 2 (MYR2.3b) comprises more hotels and a new concert arena. Construction of the facilities under Phase 2 have not commenced yet

Stock

2018-09-12 10:57 | Report Abuse

Those who sold today, will be regret in next coming days or weeks. Too many people over sensitive to oil price fluctuation.

1st of all, spike of oil price is purely speculation on Iran restriction on oil + temporary weekly fluctuation on oil inventories in US. We all already knew, China government stated it will eliminate oil buy in US, move to buy more in Iran & Russia. If this the case, US oil supply inventories will be a big increase in coming weeks, then oil price will drop further.

2nd to reconsider, if US-CHINA trade war really happen cause by arrogant Trump, eventually oil price will plummet worse to below $60 due to fear of trade drop. But a person has to rethink properly, if trade war really happen, does it cause any effect to airline traveller to stop travel especially on holiday season in 4Q18? Beside market sentiment fear which I believe is overblown trigger by market speculators, does it affect company core earning business in airline industry? Will traveller cancel or stop their travel holiday immediately because of trade war?

3rd thing to remind, Airasia already announced going to pay dividend 75sen by Q418, probably by end Oct. Some more Airasia worst case condition on past 2Q18 was the worst Quarter with jet fuel price $89, still can earn EPS 10.8sen return. That impressive Qtr result, show a good Airasia mgmt. in cost operation control even through oil price was high of $89.

Don't follow blindly or over sensitive toward market noise, you will lose if trade buy-sell so frequent. Those who understand what stock to buy, how much to buy, when to buy & when to sell at appropriate time & big macro event will win big in long run vs daily speculators.

News & Blogs

2018-09-03 15:32 | Report Abuse

Analyst prediction from CIMB, not from AAGB...

" Separately, AAGB recently completed the sale of the residual 25% stake in AAE Travel to Expedia on 14 Aug 2018 for US$60m, or 7 sen/share, which we expect will be paid out as special dividends before end-2018F"

"The sale of 84 planes to BBAM is partly complete, with 39 aircraft transferred up to 8 Aug 2018, and another 45 transfers to be completed by Nov 2018F, in AAGB’s estimate. We estimate that special dividends of up to 75 sen may be declared. According to AAGB’s verbal guidance during the results conference call, the special dividends related to the BBAM transaction may be declared during the release of the 3Q18F results in late-Nov, and be paid in 4Q18F or 1Q19F"

Stock

2018-08-29 15:35 | Report Abuse

There is a high potential, there will be a special dividend payout together from this ONE-time sellout of CPAM & CPIAM of RM928mil (EPS 9.0 sen/share). If to follow standard CIMB policy of paying out total 51% dividend per annum, that mean this year will be an increase payout of dividend soon! Some current price is undervalued, potential to shoot up above 7.00

Stock

2018-08-05 11:19 | Report Abuse

Good news to Airasia shareholder!
If across whole airline industry committed to increase air fare to offset increase in recent fuel surcharge up, then Airasia will stand the best & most preferable low-cost air fare airline choose by customer.Since Airasia is famous for its airline most lean to cost operation, good quality service & price affordable to consumer, it will benefit the most in term of flights travel frequency preferences choice. By assumption, people continue to travel due to various reasons (business trip, leisure, holiday, visits, etc), higher possibility will choose Airasia due to low air fare prices compare to other airlines companies high-cost operation.

In reflect to current share price Airasia is undervalued, core PE <7, this already factor-in the high fuel jet price. If across airline industry increase air fare surcharge to 10%, then its share price will fly even higher due to more consumer choose Airasia flights vs other airlines + operation cost reduce significantly, higher net profit.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/168214.jsp

Stock

2018-08-03 16:41 | Report Abuse

All we need is be patience!

It been 2 years already, Tony & Kamarul need the cash from AAC dividend payout borrow from bank to payback private placement from their original shareholding 18% to 32%. If to break down, of the total cash proceeds of US$1,085m, US$183.2m pay by BBAM to Airbus in relation to four new A320neo deliveries, US$901.8m (RM3.5bn) will be received by AirAsia. Then latter, RM788m set aside to prepay borrowings, RM112m to pay expenses, and remaining RM2.6bn proceeds will intended to be largely paid out as special dividends.

This transaction is expected to completed by 3Q18F -mid/end Aug 18, follow by EGM shareholder voting approval announce in Bursa then.

Moreover, with the AAC sellout, Airasia will have strong financial & cash flow, almost to zero liability - resulting in a drop in AirAsia’s net gearing from 90% in FY17 to only less 10% in FY18F.

Happy Investing!

Stock

2018-08-03 10:21 | Report Abuse

Airasia share price is in market consolidation, normal market fluctuation. Currently is in accumulation mode, collect low price share price from fear novice retail investor. Those who brave & smart enough to buy and accumulate slowly, will handsomely rewarded once big fund mgr finish collect & push the price up fast.

Happy investing!

Stock

2018-08-02 17:29 | Report Abuse

Airasia share price hit due to market noise jerk effect on Trump's propose raise tariff from 10% to 25% on remaining $200bil goods on China exports. It will undergo US public hearing by end August if want to continue with the re-tariff rule or not later on. Do not over-react to market news noise. Even if worst case outcome, $200bil goods re-tariff to 25% does approve by US public vote be end Aug, it still not affect Airasia business growth earning fundamentally for whole 2018.

If a genuine investor relook on Airasia airline business sector, actually Airasia is on growing path trend, expanding its airplane route at good rate, undervalued PE vs other airlines company, giving 85sen dividend payout soon, going downtrend low oil price, improve in ancillary cost, lean etc.. I believe AA will rebound soon once this market noise settle down.

Stock

2018-08-02 14:53 | Report Abuse

Yesterday oil price drop -1.5% again. For the past 1week, Brent oil price drop from $75.80 to $72.80, -4% drop due to US shale oil inventories supply increase, OPEC raise it output & summer holiday break going to end soon, caused less oil usage.

Stock

2018-07-12 16:09 | Report Abuse

Airasia BUY call for coming divident payout + flight increase -- > TP rm4.87.
Strong load factor YoY improve 11% vs last year. Travel demand in June higher due to Hari Raya holiday season + two-week mid term school holiday break. Q2'18 flights frequency expected to raise higher YoY.

Consider significant growth of 25.2% of domestic passenger in 2QFY18, expected Airasia will most likely recorded strong operational statistic in 2nd Quarter result.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/strong-load-factor-seen-aviation-industry

Stock

2018-06-26 15:13 | Report Abuse

MMLai, what I'm sharing is based on facts & figure, not based on market emotional & noise arise from uncontrolled events like oil price hedging & US vs RM currency fluctuation which trigger market sell down. No one can guarantee you, if you buy now, sure share price will shoot up immediately. I believe all these bad events had been factor-in into the share price now. Back on end of Feb, it share price drop from 4.60 to current 3.03, nothing change on its core business fundamental except oil price & currency fluctuation + Trump's US-China trade war noise.

But if you were to relook into its Airasia business growth expansion (buy more airplane & create more route) & core financial structure, its financial revenue YoY & net profit QoQ does increase. Also moving into new digitalization market (like e-Amazon pay, ancillary cost return + dividend payout base company). Once AAC sell-out, AAGB will has more cash on-hand to operate with less/little debt gearing ratio. For an airline, this is a great transformation and cost lean efficient operation business.

Dont always look on short term effect, market noise & miss out the potential growth. Take it as an opportunity instead of a threat. Buy Low, Sell High - not the reverse polarity.

Buy at your comfort level. Risk comes when you dont know what you are buying. No right or wrong in investment world. Once understand and study in detail, the next action is to take action.

Stock

2018-06-26 12:10 | Report Abuse

Investee, as per analyst calculation impact of AAC lease selloff, Quarterly AAC sell off loss vs Qtrly revenue impact is ~RM190mil vs average revenue RM2,400mil ~ RM2,600mil. This ratio impact of AAC selloff is small, less than <8%.

The key big benefit of selling AAC selloff, it to lower down the debt gearing ratio from current 0.9 to 0.2, plus giving AAGB most significant benefit in cash flow, provide strong cash rich to operate beside giving special dividend payout of ~RM1.00 by year end 2018.

I strongly believe current share price now, it super undervalued & good to buy now.

Stock

2018-06-24 10:08 | Report Abuse

There is a new video from Tony F. Airasia founder. He does stated moving forward there will be a 20% net profit dividend payout/year from Airasia in future depend on cash flow & earning profit. He do mention that there will be a total dividend of USD$300mil to USD$400mil for 2018 (sales from AAC lease, Expedia, AACL lease 35aircraft) to be give as divident by this year. Convert into RM, it worth RM1.2bil to RM1.6bil dividend payout in total. That mean total dividend can hit RM1.00 to RM1.10 worth of dividend payout by year end 2018 once all sales payment are finalize & complete.

Ask yourself a very simple question, how can other losing burning money such as Grab, GoJek, UBER are moving into digitization business such as e-wallet, delivery service and today market perception valued it at much as higher valuation than Airasia by 4x times folds. Grab was valued at USD$10 billion (RM40bil) by Toyota while Airasia is valued at RM10 billion from its market cap? Some more Airasia is on expansion mode, good mgmt governance, great idea to move into digitization business and counter-measure it volatile fuel-jet cost with ancillary & online goods cost return? Even compare among among its peers (VietJet, SIA etc) in the airline business, Airasia is much lesser valued, but branding name & low cost lean-efficiency is better than both of them?

That a huge potential for Airasia in coming months for whole 2018 & beyond. Great opportunity to grab and buy Airasia!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WndVsk9rKFM#action=share

Stock

2018-05-31 13:56 | Report Abuse

That's true, it appear that the AAIL case is closed. Media speculation on AAIL seem like a fake news, over blown the case without study the facts yet.

Beside that, there will be a 1.0 million passenger customer flying using Airasia soon after June 15th. This is huge as these all are young working adults who have been blacklisted since 2000, now like bird escape from cage, go holiday & travel the world. Great business opportunity for Airasia in June 2018.

https://www.malaymail.com/s/1636843/one-million-ptptn-defaulters-may-f...

Oppurtunity is there for Airasia, right now is super undervalued!

This coming June'18, Airasia ex-date 12sen dividend, next AAC 75sen & Red Cargo/Expedia 13sen divident payout by Q318. Plus debt ratio is stronger, reducing from 1.1 to 0.9 now. After AAC & Expedia selloff, debts ratio further reduce + increase capital cash flow. Its ancillary & digitalization cost gain will improve its revenue. In macro picture, coming 2H18 global crude oil price on reduce trend soon after OPEC meeting conclude to gradually increase oil supply from both Russia & Saudi.

At least it worth >RM5.00 based on it fundamental core business earned + dividend payout by Q318 soon.

Stock

2018-05-30 11:05 | Report Abuse

Divident payout ex-date 12sen, with additional dividend of 88sen to be payout by next Q3'18 earning report. Some more, its average Q-o-Q core business earning ard RM400mil to RM500mil, convert to EPS ard 13sen to 16sen. Mulitple with PE 8, ard RM4.16 to RM5.12 range. That's also not include it divident payout of total RM 1.00 (12sen + 88sen) yet.

Include it core earning EPS + dividend payout of RM1.00 before ex-date, Airasia share price worth RM 5.16 to RM6.12 range based on low PE 8 only. That way undervalued airlines company in the world right now, some more Airasia business is growing, expanding to cater customer demand.

Some more, now crude oil price is on down trend ard $66 only. Expected coming OPEC meeting Russia & Saudi will increase their oil supply to balance with raising US shale oil increase. That's a huge oil supply inventories floating to the market by this 2H18 year. Oil price will further goes down by then.

Stock

2018-05-27 13:56 | Report Abuse

Message from Russia Putin, he agreed to lower the oil price to $60 by increase more oil supply to the market. Expected oil price will lower down, especially OPEC meeting this 22th June, Russia & Saudi will raise oil supply more to cater increase US shale oil rig supply increase. It will be stupid for both Russia & Saudi sit down, idle do nothing cut supply whereas US shale oil supply increase solely benefit to US only.

Last Friday, oil price drop 4.5%, drop $6.00+ , expect more to come oil price drop.
----------------------+++++------+

By Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A return to the oil production levels that were in place in October 2016, baseline for the current deal to cut output, is one of the options for easing curbs, Russia's energy minister said on Saturday.

Sources said this week that Saudi Arabia and Russia were discussing raising OPEC and non-OPEC oil production to ease 17 months of strict supply curbs amid concerns that a price rally has gone too far.

"When we extended the agreement until the end of 2018, we spoke about such possibilities (of returning to the October 2016 level)," Novak told reporters.

"But a decision will be made in June," he added, referring to meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC countries in Vienna on June 22-23.

The existing deal came into force on January 1, 2017, and envisaged global oil producers reducing their combined output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to cut bloated stockpiles and prop up oil prices.

Russia's oil output reached a 30-year high of 11.247 million bpd in October 2016 and it pledged to cut it by 300,000 bpd to 10.947 mln.

In March and in April this year it failed to fully comply with the deal, pumping at the pace of 10.97 million bpd, a 11-month high.

Oil prices have risen to $80 per barrel, levels unseen since late 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the price of $60 "suits Russia".


Novak was also quoted as saying on Saturday he expected Iran to reduce its output by no more than 10 percent as a result of the move by the United States to withdraw from a nuclear deal and reinstate sanctions against Tehran.

"I think the output reduction will not be as significant as many expect," RIA news agency quoted Novak as saying when asked if he agreed with an estimate that the sanctions could remove as much as 800,000 barrels a day from the market.

"Some 10 percent is probably the maximum level," he said.

Novak also estimated that the "geopolitical risk" premium to the oil price was around $5-$7 per barrel.


(Additional reporting by Oksana Kobzeva; writing by Maria Kiselyova; Editing by Richard Balmforth and Helen Popper)

Stock

2018-05-27 13:55 | Report Abuse

Message from Russia Putin, he agreed to lower the oil price to $60 by increase more oil supply to the market. Expected oil price will lower down, especially OPEC meeting this 22th June, Russia & Saudi will raise oil supply more to cater increase US shale oil rig supply increase. It will be stupid for both Russia & Saudi sit down, idle do nothing cut supply whereas US shale oil supply increase solely benefit to US only.

Last Friday, oil price drop 4.5%, drop $6.00+ , expect more to come oil price drop.
----------------------+++++------+

By Vladimir Soldatkin

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A return to the oil production levels that were in place in October 2016, baseline for the current deal to cut output, is one of the options for easing curbs, Russia's energy minister said on Saturday.

Sources said this week that Saudi Arabia and Russia were discussing raising OPEC and non-OPEC oil production to ease 17 months of strict supply curbs amid concerns that a price rally has gone too far.

"When we extended the agreement until the end of 2018, we spoke about such possibilities (of returning to the October 2016 level)," Novak told reporters.

"But a decision will be made in June," he added, referring to meetings of OPEC and non-OPEC countries in Vienna on June 22-23.

The existing deal came into force on January 1, 2017, and envisaged global oil producers reducing their combined output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to cut bloated stockpiles and prop up oil prices.

Russia's oil output reached a 30-year high of 11.247 million bpd in October 2016 and it pledged to cut it by 300,000 bpd to 10.947 mln.

In March and in April this year it failed to fully comply with the deal, pumping at the pace of 10.97 million bpd, a 11-month high.

Oil prices have risen to $80 per barrel, levels unseen since late 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the price of $60 "suits Russia".


Novak was also quoted as saying on Saturday he expected Iran to reduce its output by no more than 10 percent as a result of the move by the United States to withdraw from a nuclear deal and reinstate sanctions against Tehran.

"I think the output reduction will not be as significant as many expect," RIA news agency quoted Novak as saying when asked if he agreed with an estimate that the sanctions could remove as much as 800,000 barrels a day from the market.

"Some 10 percent is probably the maximum level," he said.

Novak also estimated that the "geopolitical risk" premium to the oil price was around $5-$7 per barrel.


(Additional reporting by Oksana Kobzeva; writing by Maria Kiselyova; Editing by Richard Balmforth and Helen Popper)

Stock

2018-05-25 10:28 | Report Abuse

Good time to collect. By year end, total dividend payout is RM0.98/share in special dividends.
RM0.98/share in special dividends is based on

a) RM0.75/share from the sale of AAC sell, AAGB receive gross cash proceeds of US$1,120m, of which it will set aside approximately US$638m (c.RM2.5bn) for the payment of special dividends.
This transaction is expected to be completed by 3Q18F.

b) RM0.12/share in special dividends from the S$119m proceeds arising from
the sale of 50% interest in Ground Team Red (GTR) to SATS. This sale was
completed on 14 February 2018.

c) RM0.11/share in special dividends from the planned sale of the remaining
25% interest in AAE Travel to Expedia, amount to US$100m and the entire proceeds will be paid
as special dividends.

That very good for a half year dividend bonus.
Not to mention, it core business earning after deduct Q1'18 result was 16sen. This is way undervalued. Tony does mention the fuel price increase will be offset by ancillary & digital earning, impact is lesser.

Stock

2018-05-21 16:34 | Report Abuse

For those who don't know GENM business work, actually lower RM currency is beneficial to GENM, as foreign profit gain in USD & Pound is higher after convert to RM currency. Plus this will also reduce oversea traveller, more foreigner n local will travel local to Msia, thus more visitor come to GENM. Moreover, source of raw materials cost price build for GITP theme park also lower as most material source/purchase locally.

Most important, conversion to GST to SST tax from 1st June, will benefit the most as more income disposable among Msian consumer, encourage more local travel & spend. Overall, net-net is beneficial to GenM if RM vs USD currency drop.

Think big picture! Trade smart, don't trade emotionally.

Stock

2018-05-18 10:49 | Report Abuse

It's stated here clearly, with the GST set to zero %, this will reduce RWG direct cost, mean current on-going building GITP outdoor theme part expenses cost will reduce as well, expected earning will be improve + more consumer or gamblers will spend more in GENM after 1st June by then.

Happy Investing!

Stock

2018-05-18 10:32 | Report Abuse

Share from Maybank analyst report 17th May:

The chips are falling your way:

Lift TP by 7% to MYR5.70, upgrade to BUY, Zero-rating of the GST may even lift our TP by up to another 10% to MYR6.15. (Short term)

Recovering consumer sentiment and zero-rating of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) are positive for GENM. Both portends that the high margin Resorts World Genting (RWG) mass market GGR will grow meaningfully and drive GENM earnings to structurally grow once again. More confident, we roll forward our SOP-valuation base to end-FY19 from end- FY18 which lifts our SOP-based TP to MYR5.70 from MYR5.35. Zero-rating of the GST may even lift our TP by up to another 10% to MYR6.15.

Catalyst in the zero-rating of the GST:

Not only will the zero-rated GST raise the disposable incomes of gamblers and their propensity to gamble, it will also reduce RWG direct costs and boost GENM group earnings. If the 6% GST is zero-rated and there are no increases in other gaming tax rates, we estimate that it may boost GENM group EBITDA by 10% p.a. on a full year basis and raise our TP by 8% to MYR6.15. For now, we assume that RWG will continue paying the 6% GST.

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2018-05-16 11:58 | Report Abuse

Lctitan's business is growing with PP3 plant commerce in June & TE3 plant production utilization going for 100% operation full swing in Q2'18. Company intrinsic NTA value is RM5.00, No debts with strong cash flow RM3.56 billion, It's mgmt also stated it will pay dividend payout twice annually, expected 40% ~ 50% range.

We all do expect or forecast Q2'18 EPS result will be better than Q1'18 as lagging ASP price will reflect starting on March onwards. Plus, current trailing PE is 12.6, it is undervalued vs PCHEM, forward PE <10 + good margin safety. Business fundamental wise is good and growing.

I don't know how mgmt. going to perform in coming Qtr, but let assume mgmt efficiency stay as per normal; with upcoming PP3 & TE3 production capacity expansion, good ASP margin price, high petrochemical demand + tight supply, eventually all these benefit to overall 2018 Qtr earning (assume crude oil price stable within ~$70 range + no surprise arise again).

I don't think Lotte the 4th biggest conglomerate organisation in Korea (after Samsung, Hyundai, LC) will make it reputation name spoil. Overall Korean mgmt. are famous for their mfg lean & cost sensitive & fast operation deliverable.

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2018-05-16 10:38 | Report Abuse

Stay optimistic, it will be rebound fast since expected Q2 result is good due to ASP price lagging price come back during March as stated in Qtr report. Don't get swing out due to share price noise. TP readjust to RM7.25, that is RM2.00 potential gain by year-end as global petrochemical ASP price is going strong with less supply in the market for whole 2018 move forward.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lotte-chemicals-pp3-us-shale-gas-seen-contribute-2h

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2018-05-15 11:04 | Report Abuse

Prelim investigation, whole Indonesia market drop due to terrorism attack bombing churches, cause market panic and share drop in Indonesia. Lctitan have plant in Indonesia, cause market panic. This is non related to Lctitan biz, petrochemical market and demand is still high. Don't get swing away by market noise.