LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN HOLDING BERHAD

KLSE (MYR): LCTITAN (5284)

You're accessing 15 mins delay data. Turn on live stream now to enjoy real-time data!

Last Price

1.18

Today's Change

-0.01 (0.84%)

Day's Change

1.18 - 1.19

Trading Volume

1,105,100


16 people like this.

12,560 comment(s). Last comment by Jonathan Keung 6 days ago

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Looking at weekly charts since 2017 listing, it looks like LCTITAN is trying to put on a "round bottom", which if true suggests that 1.1 might be the low. Still too early to judge until it goes past RM1.65. Times like this is most uncertain and where the gains are also the largest if it really puts on the bottom.

Market must have been really pleased that last quarter showed first gross profit. My guess is someone must have shown a forecast of a second consecutive quarterly gross profit for this December, given December is only a few days away from closing. A second consecutive quarterly gross profit will make market excited that maybe LCTITAN might survive i.e. the billions it spent on LINE project is not going to go to zero and might be worth billions still.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

It is instructive to compare LCTITAN balance sheet at MRQ (30/9/23) vs say 31/12/20, before it embarks on LINE project. The difference in PPE is substantial - 5.1billion vs 14.9billion, or nearly 10 billion increase in PPE. Its cash holdings was pristine back at 31/12/20 - nearly 4 billion with zero borrowings. Today only 0.8 billion cash, with nearly 4 billion borrowings. With such massive increase in PPE of nearly RM10 billion, market penalizes LCTITAN over the past 2.75 years from RM3 down to RM1.2 say when its NAPS is steady around 5.19 to 5.23. When it price crashes, it was a DOOMSDAY scenario - a 2nd consecutive quarterly gross profit is going to convince more market participants that the earlier thought DOOMSDAY scenario might not happen and if so, there's going to be a strong reassessment of the billions invested in the LINE project. Under a normal scenario, 1 billion spent on PPE is going to valued by market by more than 1 billion, not 300 million worth i.e. this reassessment can really kick in a strong potential recovery if true ...

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

LCTITAN capital commitment continues to shrink massively. At 31/12/22, it was 7.5 billion. At 30/9/23, it is now down to 3.4 billion, i.e. more than half has been spent. From capital perspective, we might be approaching the worst soon since there's clearly not enough cash i.e. LCTITAN will need more monies to complete its capital commitments, either by borrowings or raise capital (diluting shareholders) ... with this type of price action (if it gets to RM1.65 or above), market participants will be increasingly discounting the capital raising option and thinks LCTITAN can grow by borrowing more.

We'll have to wait and see.

Best thing to do when having a position is .. do nothing.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

A random look at lsat 11 quarters EPS starting from Q1/21, Q2/21, ... to Q3/23.
What pattern do you see?

19.36 .. 16.81 .. 2.14 .. 8.2 .. 4.57 .. (6.41) .. (15.61) .. (13.93) .. (9.87) .. (13.76) .. (2.44).

Q1/23 looks hopeful when the loss went down from (13.93) to (9.87).
Q2/23 looks terrible, when the loss exploded from (9.87) to (13.76).
Q3/23 looks very hopeful, when the loss went down from (13.76) down to (2.44).

When a company financials improves, then, suddenly, the RM10 billlion spent into PPE gives hope and is no longer terrible. When financials deteriorated back in the earlier days and the company kept spending more and more on capital commitment, that's when the market fears the worst that this company is going to drive the business down to the ground. Of course, if the company survives, then, buying when fear is greatest will give the largest rewards. However, if the company did not survive, then, your investment would have gone down the drain together with the company. It was a massive risk taken by the company, hence, Mr Market penalizes this stock massively since 2017 listing.

Jnlee

288 posts

Posted by Jnlee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

dividendguy67, thanks for your very analytical comment

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Nice! 1.39 at lunch close. Greater volume, higher RSI highs suggest outlook on this stock may have changed. Looking closer at the chart, there's that gap early this year that's begging to be closed. That's around RM1.56.

My small position has now become my 2nd largest position after these 2 days move! If I didn't buy more MAYBANK today, it would have become my largest position after these 2 days move! Let's see how the price action goes till Chinese New Year.

Davidl

1,802 posts

Posted by Davidl > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Finally empire strikes back! More to go guys!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This morning, I trimmed my position slightly at 1.42, to sell of the portion I bought at 1.11. 31 sen gain in just a short time is to reduce risk, as it has become too large. Some selling is necessary, to allow price to dip, to form a base, before the next move.

Thanks to LCTITAN, my portfolio has made a new all time high again today.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Chemical price is rising?

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

breaking Rm1.40 again... turn profits in upcoming q4 I guess

heesing62

31 posts

Posted by heesing62 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Let’s hope upcoming quarter they made some profits . Based on current financial status this share is undervalued. Probably because 75% of the shares owned by Lotte HQ , thus prices being suppressed. Minority shareholders must have the will power to hold on . NTA more than 5.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh! So nice. 1.45 close, higher than swing high of 1.43 a week ago. Decent chance to close the gap at 1.56.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I think it follows KOSPI going up and down, technically speaking

JLKL12

4 posts

Posted by JLKL12 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Ppl is collecting the shares..

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

wow, its momentum is strong today. Excellent QR is coming this month

heesing62

31 posts

Posted by heesing62 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Something is cooking. Hope it can maintain the momentum …..

lloydlim

3,907 posts

Posted by lloydlim > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Big fund is buying recently, good news ahead!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Fuiyoh ... so nice. 1.53 close, higher than swing high 1.45 a week ago. Thank-you LCTITAN plus 21 other green stocks to offset 10 reds, to allow my portfolio to hit a new all time high again today, after yesterday and 4 prior days. What a superb start to 2024 after a strong 2023!

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Next station will be Rm1.60

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

http s://dividendguy67.blogspot.com/2024/01/lctitan.html.

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

When will LC Titan announce its Q4 exactly?

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Dec 23 { Qtr result } will be announced end of January

staind86

291 posts

Posted by staind86 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I doubt there will be profit this quarter. Polymer market condition is still weak.

Markv572421

2,992 posts

Posted by Markv572421 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Recovery? so fast climb up ?

curiousq

652 posts

Posted by curiousq > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

sifu said much be very very careful with korean

Posted by jinxstock20 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Who is that sifu? 😆

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Lctitan 4qtr result ending Dec 31 continues to bleed. Losses narrow down to - 186 million. Whole year result showed losses widen to -780 million { FY 23 } vs -730 million a year ago. Not a good sign

lloydlim

3,907 posts

Posted by lloydlim > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

GG.com?

Blue Tulip

251 posts

Posted by Blue Tulip > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Insiders knew the Qr was not going to be good. Thus, they pushed up the price, hoping that retailers would jump in. Once the Qr is released, they knew that retailers would dump the stocks. Thus, they short-sell. That's why short-selling mechanism is banned in Korea.

Plantermen

2,053 posts

Posted by Plantermen > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Not only short selling but LCtitan cash is burning fast. FY 2022 - 730 Million loss, FY 2023 - 780Million loss. FY 2024 - Forecast 1billion loss. Not forgetting LCtitan finance loan of 11 billion for their Indonesia plant. This is really bad looking at thier numbers

Blue Tulip

251 posts

Posted by Blue Tulip > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I wonder who pushed up the price a month before yesterday, knowing that their cash is burning fast?

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Insider luring & trapping retailers. Remember LC Titan is a foreign based .They don't give a hook what happens. Now we understand why they never sought a listings in Singapore or Indonesia

Amazonboy

767 posts

Posted by Amazonboy > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Louzy korean management....no plan B...oil will be high price..naphta high price..demand low...better 2 closedown...Lol

Blue Tulip

251 posts

Posted by Blue Tulip > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

In Malaysia, short-sellers make a lot of money. Unfortunately, retailers like us can't short-sell from our screen.

curiousq

652 posts

Posted by curiousq > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

korean harvest delicious malaysian kucai and enjoy eating 😍

icecool

4,682 posts

Posted by icecool > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

how low will it go ?

kasinathan

951 posts

Posted by kasinathan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

90cents

xcu843

1,023 posts

Posted by xcu843 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

This Korean CEO tak boleh pakai and need to step down immediately. He need to responsible on failed delivery profit for 7 quarters.

Nepo

3,239 posts

Posted by Nepo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Valuetrap stk..

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

You mean football coach from Korea?

Tigerchan

347 posts

Posted by Tigerchan > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Its going to 0.55 after CNY. Eat oranges first, i am waiting.

Plantermen

2,053 posts

Posted by Plantermen > 4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

LCTITAN needs a new direction. It's core products facing margin compression. India, Vietnam, Thailand and China started their own country industrial petrol chem manufacturing plant which may hit LCtitan when they come online in 2025

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This is the reason why I say “Don’t chase”.
Lucky manage to sell significant amount at 1.4x to 1.5x. However still have slightly more than half unsold. Will be looking to buy back what’s sold at 1.1x and 1.0x (if it gets there).

calvintaneng

52,880 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

recession coming

consumer discretionary bad

safety is palm oil

BURSA YEAR 2024: Rise of Value Investing After Gambling Gang gone Busted, Calvin Tan

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-02-02-story-h-189370559-BURSA_YEAR_2024_Rise_of_Value_Investing_After_Gambling_Gang_gone_Busted#google_vignette

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Hmmm ... after 7 consecutive quarter reporting losses, chart action suggests that speculators are now trying to pick bottoms and betting that LCTITAN's prospects are now looking brighter.

Can't complain. Not chasing. Happy to hold and watch.

stockraider

31,527 posts

Posted by stockraider > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Lcttitan is at recovery stage now loh!
This business is cyclical thus it always recover mah!

At the low cycle u should start accumulating loh!

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

@raider, agree it is long term cyclical, that's a sound strategy for cyclicals, except the question is - has it bottomed yet ? What is your average accumulation price and position size (what % of capital) in LCTITAN?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

My most recent accumulation price is 1.19. It brings my average price down to 1.33, so, I'm still in red. I have around 2.5% of my capital here, so, the unrealized loss is very small.

Normally, I'm not excited at my losses, so, I don't think I'll add more because I already added at 1.19.

Plantermen

2,053 posts

Posted by Plantermen > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

For myself having a long term view any short term share price fluctuations isn't really a concern. However our ringgit depreciating value vs the USD is a real concern. LCtitan group borrowings of USD 2.2 billion in 2020with the Korean excim bank to finance their factory Indonesian plant an expansion is a real concern. From an estimated cost of app 10billion ringgit. Now it's has ballooned up to 11 billion in ringgit terms. Obviously this USD borrowing's will have an impart on thier bottom line. Worse the Fed Reserve isn't going to lower their rates any time soon. The Korean Exim Bank rates aren't cheap { at 5.0-5.5%

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

No dividend forth coming for the next 2 years. Only hope is capital appreciation. If lock it at low prices last year . Now sell and take the profit

Post a Comment
Market Buzz