What drove global production up to the current 92 million barrels a day or so was non-conventional production – the oil sands, U.S. shale oil, biofuels and natural gas liquids. The problem is that most of this production is highly expensive and a lot of it, like the gas liquids, is refined into heating fuels, such as butane, not transportation fuels, which are the biggest oil products market. Barring a technological breakthrough, the world has probably seen “peak” conventional oil production. That means any significant production gains will have to come from non-conventional oil. Continued low prices can only damage that production.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/why-oil-prices-will-bounce-back-eventually/article21835650/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-saudi-standoff-oil-rich-nation-takes-on-worlds-high-cost-producers/article22073819/

America blink first. Shale boom cannot be sustained at these low prices

US supported Kuwait and Saudi because they were net importers then. Now with the internal shale boom - no longer dependent on external sources.

The impact is already taking place...

http://www.theintelligencer.net/page/content.detail/id/619701/Shale-Output-May-Drop-As-Oil-Pri---.html

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/NewsDetails/tabid/96/smid/414/ArticleID/211631/t/Why-crude-oil-prices-are-highly-‘unstable’/Default.aspx

Ring - survival of the fittest.

"the shale producers don’t need to be sophisticates. Each operator is so small, it can increase production without pushing down the market price. That makes them price “takers,” not price setters. And because shale wells are short-lived, producers don’t have to plan far ahead, says Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist in Amarillo, Texas. Singly the shale busters are nothing. Collectively, their breakneck production is breaking OPEC’s neck. This is the remorseless, leaderless free market at work."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/12/13/oils-heading-for-40-for-shale-oil-is-a-free-market-and-opecs-a-cartel/

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/MOMR_December_2014.pdf

Page 44 - mentions Malaysia

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-2014-Oil-Price-Crash-Explained.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/record-oil-tankers-seen-sailing-to-china-amid-stockpiling-signs.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/oil-seen-dropping-to-55-next-week-as-price-rout-deepens.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/u-s-oil-rigs-drop-most-in-two-years-baker-hughes-says.html

"In addition to higher prices, most new oil fields are offshore or smaller than in years past, making oil extraction more difficult than ever. "Oil resources might be plentiful, but there can be no guarantee that they will be exploited quickly enough to meet the level of demand," the report said.

Demand for oil is predicted to rise from the current 85 million barrels per day to 106 million barrels per day in 2030, the report said. Due to this year's high oil prices, the predictions are 10 million barrels per day less than what was projected last year. Still, this represents an increase of 1 percent per year. "

makemoneynow Energy Agency Predicts High Prices in Future - December 13 2014


Photo courtesy Calum Davidson/Flickr

Current consumption rates will cause world energy demand to increase 1.6 per year until 2030, the IEA reports.
The world can expect energy prices to continue their generally upward spiral in the years ahead if global energy policies remain the same, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported this week.

Rapid economic development in China and India, coupled with relatively consistent energy use in industrialized nations, will likely strain the world's ability to meet a projected rise in energy demand of some 1.6 percent a year until 2030, the agency predicted Wednesday in its annual World Energy Outlook report [PDF].

The IEA significantly increased its projections of future oil costs in this year's report due to the changing outlook for demand and production costs. It now expects crude oil to average $100 per barrel over the next two decades and more than $200 per barrel in 2030, in nominal terms. Last year's forecast estimated that a 2030 barrel would amount to only $108.

"One thing is certain," said Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, in a prepared statement. "While market imbalances will feed volatility, the era of cheap oil is over."

Oil and natural gas resources are expected to supply the world for more than 40 years at current consumption rates. But the report expressed concern that rising world energy demands will outpace production.

"There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil-supply crunch in that timeframe," the report said. "The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010."

The price of meeting the world's energy demands is estimated at $26.3 trillion through 2030-an average of more than $1 trillion a year, the IEA said.

In addition to higher prices, most new oil fields are offshore or smaller than in years past, making oil extraction more difficult than ever. "Oil resources might be plentiful, but there can be no guarantee that they will be exploited quickly enough to meet the level of demand," the report said.

Demand for oil is predicted to rise from the current 85 million barrels per day to 106 million barrels per day in 2030, the report said. Due to this year's high oil prices, the predictions are 10 million barrels per day less than what was projected last year. Still, this represents an increase of 1 percent per year.

Natural gas demand is expected to grow even faster, at a rate of 1.8 percent per year. And coal demand would advance 2 percent per year on average, according to the report.

China and India are expected to account for more than half of the projected additional energy demand, and their power sectors would consume 80 percent of the additional coal. Overall, countries that are not members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of 30 industrialized economies, are estimated to represent 87 percent of the increased energy demand.

The result of this energy boom would be a steady rise in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The IEA said the emissions increase expected under this scenario would result in a 6-degree Celsius rise in the average global temperature by the end of the 21st century. This would likely devastate many species and coastal communities worldwide.

The report also notes that renewable energy will likely surpass natural gas to become the second-largest source of electricity behind coal sometime after 2010.

These predictions, however, are based on a business-as-usual approach to energy use. If the international community enacts "profound shifts" in energy policies, namely through an international climate change agreement, the world's unsustainable energy path may be avoided, the report said.

The IEA estimates that $4.1 trillion in additional energy-efficiency investments is needed between 2010 and 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm) of carbon-dioxide (CO2) equivalent. To reduce concentrations to a lower 450 ppm, $2.4 trillion more would be needed to pay for low- or zero-carbon power plants, and $2.7 trillion for more energy-efficient equipment.

Some climate researchers, including James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, have stated that the atmosphere needs to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350 ppm in order to avoid "irreversible catastrophic effects" [PDF]. The atmosphere currently contains an estimated 385 ppm of CO2 equivalent.

Representatives from the renewable energy industry have criticized the IEA report for underestimating clean energy's future potential. The IEA projected that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, could supply 4 percent of total power generation in 2030.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5936

Energy Agency Predicts High Prices in Future - December 13 2014


Photo courtesy Calum Davidson/Flickr

Current consumption rates will cause world energy demand to increase 1.6 per year until 2030, the IEA reports.
The world can expect energy prices to continue their generally upward spiral in the years ahead if global energy policies remain the same, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported this week.

Rapid economic development in China and India, coupled with relatively consistent energy use in industrialized nations, will likely strain the world's ability to meet a projected rise in energy demand of some 1.6 percent a year until 2030, the agency predicted Wednesday in its annual World Energy Outlook report [PDF].

The IEA significantly increased its projections of future oil costs in this year's report due to the changing outlook for demand and production costs. It now expects crude oil to average $100 per barrel over the next two decades and more than $200 per barrel in 2030, in nominal terms. Last year's forecast estimated that a 2030 barrel would amount to only $108.

"One thing is certain," said Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, in a prepared statement. "While market imbalances will feed volatility, the era of cheap oil is over."

Oil and natural gas resources are expected to supply the world for more than 40 years at current consumption rates. But the report expressed concern that rising world energy demands will outpace production.

"There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil-supply crunch in that timeframe," the report said. "The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010."

The price of meeting the world's energy demands is estimated at $26.3 trillion through 2030-an average of more than $1 trillion a year, the IEA said.

In addition to higher prices, most new oil fields are offshore or smaller than in years past, making oil extraction more difficult than ever. "Oil resources might be plentiful, but there can be no guarantee that they will be exploited quickly enough to meet the level of demand," the report said.

Demand for oil is predicted to rise from the current 85 million barrels per day to 106 million barrels per day in 2030, the report said. Due to this year's high oil prices, the predictions are 10 million barrels per day less than what was projected last year. Still, this represents an increase of 1 percent per year.

Natural gas demand is expected to grow even faster, at a rate of 1.8 percent per year. And coal demand would advance 2 percent per year on average, according to the report.

China and India are expected to account for more than half of the projected additional energy demand, and their power sectors would consume 80 percent of the additional coal. Overall, countries that are not members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a grouping of 30 industrialized economies, are estimated to represent 87 percent of the increased energy demand.

The result of this energy boom would be a steady rise in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The IEA said the emissions increase expected under this scenario would result in a 6-degree Celsius rise in the average global temperature by the end of the 21st century. This would likely devastate many species and coastal communities worldwide.

The report also notes that renewable energy will likely surpass natural gas to become the second-largest source of electricity behind coal sometime after 2010.

These predictions, however, are based on a business-as-usual approach to energy use. If the international community enacts "profound shifts" in energy policies, namely through an international climate change agreement, the world's unsustainable energy path may be avoided, the report said.

The IEA estimates that $4.1 trillion in additional energy-efficiency investments is needed between 2010 and 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm) of carbon-dioxide (CO2) equivalent. To reduce concentrations to a lower 450 ppm, $2.4 trillion more would be needed to pay for low- or zero-carbon power plants, and $2.7 trillion for more energy-efficient equipment.

Some climate researchers, including James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, have stated that the atmosphere needs to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350 ppm in order to avoid "irreversible catastrophic effects" [PDF]. The atmosphere currently contains an estimated 385 ppm of CO2 equivalent.

Representatives from the renewable energy industry have criticized the IEA report for underestimating clean energy's future potential. The IEA projected that renewable energy, excluding hydropower, could supply 4 percent of total power generation in 2030.

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5936

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/12/02/oil-prices-down/

http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-10-richest-nations-in-the-world.htm

Ring don't just look at reserves - look at overall wealth of the people

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/richest-countries-in-the-world

Ring - WSJ - already posted - thanks

Here's a new one

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/how-low-can-oil-go/

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/11/wsj-survey-oil-prices-are-near-their-bottom/

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/11/wsj-survey-oil-prices-are-near-their-bottom/

Ring - please provide the link

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-OPEC-Conundrum-Expect-Production-Cuts-Before-June-2015.html

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Wars-Why-OPEC-Will-Win.html

http://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/download/pdf/media/news/Executing%20an%20Offshore%20Exploration%20Project%20in%20Oman_gov%20Rev%202.pdf

http://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/download/pdf/media/news/Investor%20Presentation_December_R3%20Published.pdf

Ring use your Lord of the Ring to make money now. The world is getting absurdly selfish with no one willing to compromise.

As the saying goes - what goes up, will come down and what comes down, will go.............

And one thing about oil - it is a depleting asset . Goggle and find out the truth behind the brave front of so called "we have so much oil".

Don't be fooled for one minute by the hocus pocus of OPEC that they have more reserves. They are artificially inflating the numbers to justify their lifestyle and strength of currency, bankable in borrowing etc. An example is whenever Iran 'claimed' to have improved their reserved remarkably, Iraq will by magic announce a better number. Check out their figures.

Do you own research into SAUDI OIL and you will see they have almost depleted their most treasured reserves and are now using artificial lifting to bring out what else is left underneath.

The war now is not about price, it's about MARKET SHARE, and nobody wants to give away their market share as oil is immediate cash and every drop of oil sold is cash straight into your hands.

So - moral here - they are just living for the moment. The oil will run out they don't care. It will not be their responsibility. Sad situation. And you will eventually see we are back to hunting for oil in deeper and most isolated parts of the worlds. Nothing will replace oil as the major source of energy for decades to come.

The emergence of Shale and tar sand is just an example................

As the saying goes - what goes up, will come down and what comes down, will go.............

And one thing about oil - it is a depleting asset . Goggle and find out the truth behind the brave front of so called "we have so much oil".

Don't be fooled for one minute by the hocus pocus of OPEC that they have more reserves. They are artificially inflating the numbers to justify their lifestyle and strength of currency, bankable in borrowing etc. An example is whenever Iran 'claimed' to have improved their reserved remarkably, Iraq will by magic announce a better number. Check out their figures.

Do you own research into SAUDI OIL and you will see they have almost depleted their most treasured reserves and are now using artificial lifting to bring out what else is left underneath.

The war now is not about price, it's about MARKET SHARE, and nobody wants to give away their market share as oil is immediate cash and every drop of oil sold is cash straight into your hands.

So - moral here - they are just living for the moment. The oil will run out they don't care. It will not be their responsibility. Sad situation. And you will eventually see we are back to hunting for oil in deeper and most isolated parts of the worlds. Nothing will replace oil as the major source of energy for decades to come.

The emergence of Shale and tar sand is just an example................

YKJohn11 - The only inevitable outcome is market stability as all likely scenarios has been published - typically the exaggeration is overdone

The more you get yourself educated the less you speculate

http://www.quora.com/What-does-explain-the-brent-crude-oil-drop

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics

Sometimes people just speculate too much and too lazy to do Homework

http://www.todayonline.com/business/market-not-opec-will-set-fair-oil-price-uae-official

DUBAI - Market forces and the response of high-cost crude producers to the recent fall in prices will determine the cost of oil in the coming months, rather than OPEC, a United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil official said on Tuesday.

Prices have fallen more than 40 percent since June and Brent crude for January delivery hit $65.33 a barrel on Tuesday, its lowest since September 2009.

"The way I see it, it is the market which will dictate the oil price. Prices are driven by supply and demand ... marginal fields are going to set the price," said Mubarak al-Ketbi, deputy director of the marketing and refining directorate at state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC).

"OPEC is not a price setter. The market will set the price," Ketbi told the Platts Middle East Crude Oil Summit in Dubai, declining to comment later on any specific oil price target for the UAE, a core Gulf OPEC producer.

At a meeting last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided against reducing production, despite its own forecasts of a surplus and calls from members including Iran and Venezuela for output cuts to shore up prices.

Rising oil supplies from non-OPEC members such as Russia and U.S. shale producers was a reason cited by several OPEC delegates for keeping the group's output ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day at last month's meeting.

"We are facing a new condition for OPEC that has not been faced before. For OPEC to adjust output alone to support prices ... is almost impossible in practice," Mohammed Sadegh Memarian, head of the OPEC research team at the Iranian oil ministry said in Dubai.

"There is the U.S. and Russia... It's a three dimension (process)."

Memarian said he expected oil prices to rebound to $80 a barrel by the third quarter of 2015 "provided that OPEC sticks to its ceiling of 30 million bpd with no price war."

On Monday, the head of Kuwait's state oil company predicted that oil prices were likely to remain around $65 for the next six to seven months, echoing the views of Gulf OPEC delegates who saw oil hovering around $65-70 per barrel for a few months before bouncing back to around $80. REUTERS

Superbear - timing is surely off for Petronas to venture into shale business

Woman_x stay and be in the forum - we need forumers who contribute substance let it be good or bad - at least we know and we can assess and decide with best information available

That would mean many BILLIONS of barrels of oil and gas ler!!!!!

AS BIG AS SHAKALIN IN RUSSIA!!!

Oil reserves found in North, East - December 10, 2014

http://www.omantribune.com/index.php?page=news&id=179957&heading=News in Details

Staff Reporter

MUSCAT The discoveries offshore in eastern and northern Oman are just a tip of the iceberg, according to experts.

Masirah Oil Exploration Vice-President Rabi Bastia said in Eastern Oman one can see where rifting started earlier than in other places. A rift is a linear zone where the earth’s crust and lithosphere are pulled apart. Rifted garbens and half garbens are favourable locales for hydrocarbons, he said. A graben is a depressed block of land bordered by parallel faults.

He was speaking at the two-day Offshore Development Oman 2014 conference inaugurated by HE Ahmed Bin Sulaiman Al Maimani, Undersecretary at the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Masirah Oil in March announced discovery at the second exploration well in Block 50 in Eastern Oman. During a 48-hour test, hydrocarbons flowed to the surface and the well achieved light oil flow rate of up to 3,000bpd. It was the first offshore oil discovery in the area in over 30 years.

Bastia said one large hydrocarbon discovery is not the end of the story. There will be additional source rocks.

The challenges for developing these reserves are hetrogenity of carbonates, porosity development in older stratigraphy and imaging the melange.

Just as Brazil has made a large offshore sub-sub salt discovery, similar geology can lead to big discoveries in Eastern Oman, said Bastia. He said surprises are in store and there is huge potential.

The sub-melange could be a much bigger source of oil and 3D seismic will give a better idea of what is in store there, he added.

Melange is characterised by fragments of rock of all sizes, contained in a fine-grained deformed matrix.

Founder and Chairman of PetroTel Dr Anil Chopra said he could see the gas chimney in Northern Oman’s features, just as it is in Sakhalin in Russia, which has one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. “We also find pock marks, which are gas bubbles emerging from the sea bed. This is seen in Congo, above some of the largest oil fields,” he added. They are indications of hydrocarbons.

PetroTel is exploring in Block 40, offshore in Musandam.

Chopra said while shale oil can be produced anywhere, it is only a matter of time before technology and cost structure lets it happen everywhere.

Earlier, KG Pereira, MD of Hibiscus Petroleum and engineer Goloka Ravi presented updates on Block 50.

Chairman of Masirah Oil, Hans Lindgren presented a vision for developing off shore fields; CEO of National Petroleum Construction Company made a presentation on successful contracts, Worley Parsons Steve Henzell spoke about new technologies for offshore development.

Ozzie75 - it's not referring to any particular indicator but the overall stream - dollar easing, all news out, panic selling and short selling grossly done - now hedge funds are taking long positions - shale nearing production to surface price at most locations - Saudi and Iraq offering further discount on the traded price to maintain market share.

When the going gets tough, the tough gets going. Crude price stabilising.

Those who wait will continue to wait till the cows come home.

http://m.benzinga.com/article/5045090?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com.sg%2F

http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/low-oil-prices-wont-last/

http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/low-oil-prices-wont-last/

Moral of story - we consume more than we can find oil and produce ----

http://www.oildecline.com