「佛不渡人，人自渡」。曾有人問道：佛陀以名為大覺，修行證道，以普渡眾生為己任，那為什麼不能將我們這個世界變得更美好，來渡化我們呢？佛說：眾生皆是佛，人是未來的佛，佛是未來的人，我救不了你，唯有你自救。佛陀只能給人指引道路，引人向善，而一切因緣結果，都需要個人的行為來決定。

「可怜之人，必有可恨之处」。这句话实际上是一句佛语。真正的意思是说一个可怜的人，很多时候是自己一手造成。就像一个天真少女爱上不该爱的人。一个无知投资者买进不该买的股票。周星驰与吴孟达创造了无数经典笑话，黄金拍档，后期两人闹翻，分道扬镳。人生如戏，戏如人生。人生不过是一杯苦茶，弹指一挥间，如果太认真，你就输了。

很多散户以为看了投行分析报告就可以一帆风顺。十赌九输，10个分析报告，9个错。如果10个投行都同时看好的股票（YTL Power），千万要小心。因为不可能只是永远开大，不开小，开黑，不开红。见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/YTLPOWR/KUzI5SCr-Time-Cycle-Analyais-YTL-Power/

静能生定，定能生慧。菩提本无树，明镜亦非台，本来无一物，何处惹尘埃。

这个世界很多事情，只要停下脚步，静下心来看一看，就能看的很彻底。

见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。

欢迎来到 i3 论坛，这里是充满彩虹和阳光的幻想世界。梦想就像一个脆弱的泡沫。现实是冷酷的。一个负资产的公司 ，变来变去，还是负资产。一花一世界，一木一浮生，一草一天堂，一叶一如来。日落西山，百鸟归巢。秋去冬来，周而复始。

见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。

s = student, t = teacher

s: What do you call a company with negative assets?
t: company that's about to go out of business.

s: What do you call a company with negative assets that's trying to raise money?
t: A company that's about to be sold for scrap.

s: What do you call a company that's always losing money?
t: A company that's not on the i3 forum!

s: What do you call a company with negative assets that tries to sell itself as a positive investment?
t: A pipe dream.

s: What's the best way to invest in a company with negative assets?
t: Don't 😁

"Public Investment Bank, which cut its net profit projection by 32% for the 12 months ending July 2024" (https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/706298)

庄家布局，偷天换日。第一层境界，见山是山，股市新手只看正面，不看负面，看前面，不看后面，看上面，不看下面，看外面，不看里面。虚则实之，实则虚之。股票散户的弱点就是太相信自己的眼睛。10个分析报告9个错。这个盈利预测，一头雾水，扑朔迷离，一刀就砍掉32% ，一桶冷水倒在科技股头上。一花一世界，一木一浮生，一草一天堂，一叶一如来。日落西山，百鸟归巢。秋去冬来，周而复始。

见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。

THETA (Tabung Haji 27%) + Redtone (King 17%, MyGovUC3.0) + Aventec (Google Cloud Service Provider, MyGovUC3.0)

Theta + Redtone + Aventec (TRA) will form a winning team with their technical knowhow on MyGovUC3.0 to create economy of scale.

见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。

星期三（27/03/2024），htpadu 突然暴跌。虚拟境界鬼谷子掐指一算：“出现价量背离信号，玩小小，超级短线，过下瘾。买190，目标217，止损185。“ 星期四（28/03/2024）公共假日。星期五（29/03/2024），htpadu 开低走高，183-214。庄家大户布局往往快散户一步。我们止损185，庄家大户就把股价推下183。我们目标217，庄家大户推到214鸣鼓收兵。第一层，见山是山，股市新手很喜欢怨天尤人，责东怪西。凡事想深一层，如果没有庄家大户，股市就会犹如一潭死水。像那个百盛和龙马的股票，永远在20仙。就是因为有庄家大户的兴风作浪，我们才有过山车玩，过下手瘾。很多散户以为看了分析报告就可以一帆风顺。十赌九输，10个分析报告，9个错。如果10个投行都同时看好的股票（ctos），千万要小心。因为不可能只是永远开大，不开小，开黑，不开红。见微知著，以小见大 《鬼谷子》。小赌怡情大赌伤身。

星期一 （10:26am 25/03/2024)， 某财经周刊说 0146 jftech《杰冯科技目标价1.17令吉》。当时的股价还在96仙上下摆动。星期三（27/03/2024），突然暴跌9%至87仙。股票市场，虚则实之，实则虚之。庄家大户，凡走过必留痕迹。可是这些踪迹，真真假假，如烟似雾。第三层境界，见山还是山。价如轻舟，量如流水。数往者顺，知来者逆（回顾过去是顺势，预知未来是逆势）。仰则观象于天，俯则观法于地。乾为天 （12点钟），价平量缩，物极则反，潜龙勿用。坤为地 （6点钟），价平量增，否极泰来。艮为山（4-5点钟），价量齐升，顺水推舟。兑为泽（10-11点钟），价跌量缩，乌云盖顶，山雨欲来风满楼。天地定位，山泽通气， 雷风相薄， 水火不相射， 八卦相错。逆之者，虽成必败（鬼谷子）。

https://i.postimg.cc/zBWP7ryh/baguatu.jpg

Fund managers normally don't look at nta unless it is backed fully by cash. See POS, iCAP, Landmark etc all have high asset value but still trading at rock bottom prices. The long term prospect of UEMS no doubt is very good with their massive land banks in JB but we must face the economic reality that the Asian Twin Bubbles (Debt Bubble and Property Bubble) have crashed led by Evergrande (恒大集团) seeking a USD23bn debt restructuring plan. Not to mention the reality that JB's property market still not out of the wood yet with the so called ghost town of USD100bn Forest City ( 森林城市) built by Country Garden (碧桂园). Even with the development of RTS we will not see mass influx of Singaporeans buying JB condos as it will be very inconvenient to stay at JB and send the kids to schools in Singapore day in and day out as our education system is ranked at near the bottom according to PISA study. Yes, during weekend we will mass influx of shoppers crossing the border to shop around JB malls but most likely only hand around their to enjoy free aircon as it will be much more cheaper and more choices to buy from Shoppe. Singaporeans mostly dine out so most of the working class family will not take the trouble to go JB to do daily grocery etc. The earning of UEMS has to pickup tremendously as compared to other property developers with ROI still at the bottom level which mean they are not generating the revenue as fast and as efficient as other property developers.

"REDtone had also caught the market’s attention after it secured a RM398.1 million contract to provide a unified communications system for civil servants called MyGovUC3.0. "

For digital economy theme play, myeg and htpadu used to be fund manager's favourite but the wind has changed direction as YTLP and Redtone are positioned to take the lead in this booming sectors with their better corporate governance and world class management talents.

Sunway is backed by real earning. If we use earning as the yardstick UEMS will not worth this much price. Basically the market is trying to price in their land banks which is around the NTA value. Most people think RTS will boom the JB residential property especially the condo sectors but this may not be the case as Singapore residents will still prefer to stay in Singapore for the convenience of their kids to go to school or local library and so on.

股票市场本质上是一个虚拟境界。虚则实之，实则虚之。凡所有相，皆是虚妄。股市新手的弱点就是太相信自己的眼睛。庄家大户的踪迹，很多时候是若隐若现，恍惚如烟雾。凡走过必留痕迹。可是这些脚印，很可能是庄家大户故意留下，请君入瓮。庄家大户做空股票，为什么不会出现在数据报告里面？正统的管道，做空股票必须向投资银行借票才可以卖空。可是这样操盘做空会暴露行踪，九死一生。如果我们看空头数据报告，那些空头头寸根本是微不足道。所以国际空头大户可能是用类似《黑池》（Dark Pools）的国际管道做空。就是几个大庄家对赌。股票市场，波谲云诡。可是万变不离其宗。那个医生股票大亨用那个叫什么《仓户》（warehouse）的管道来操盘。可是可能连《证交所》也搞不懂这个 《仓户》是什么新玩意。操盘期间，《证交所》的大股东大宗买卖数据也没有出现他的买卖交易踪迹。道高一尺，魔高一丈。国际空头大户也不是吃素的。股票散户一天到晚责怪国际空头大户做空我们的股票。冰冻三尺，非一日之寒。滴水穿石，非一日之功。金玉其外，敗絮其中。国际空头大户不会无缘无故做空我们的股票。本故事纯属虚构，如有雷同，纯属巧合。

出现价量背离信号，玩小小，超级短线，过下瘾。买190，目标217，止损185。可是如果被停牌，还是开市跳空跌停板，买者自负😁

Time Cycle Analysis: April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse will cross North America, passing over Mexico, the United States, and Canada which according to Chinese Ancient Culture this day will associate with negative qi. UEMS next key dates are 18 April 18 2024 and May 17 2024. With NTA 1.35MYR so the upside should be limited.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UEMS/nhZtEUEG-Time-Cycle-Analysis-UEMS/

股票市场如同一场盛大的博弈，各路人马在这场博弈中奋力争夺利益。庄家凭借资金实力，巧妙地操纵股价以谋取利润，而散户则期望以低买高卖来收获胜利。然而，庄家与散户之间的博弈并非总是零和游戏。有时候，即便庄家把算计做尽，却也难逃市场的反噬，甚至引发市场崩盘。就拿某位顶级老板以高价回购自家公司股票的事件来说吧（14亿马币），结果却适得其反，股价一落千丈，最终成了“仙股”。在如今的马来西亚股市，真正的高手可谓凤毛麟角。郭令灿无疑是其中一位，他善于利用资金优势和策略来战胜对手。曾经风光无限的游光春、官有缘等股市巨头，也曾独占鳌头，但最终却未能逃脱股市的《丁蟹效应》。对于一些股市新手而言，他们往往会误以为通过查看卖空数据就能轻松赚取利润。然而，这是一个巨大的误解。真正的空头大亨往往不会轻易暴露自己的行踪，他们会通过各种手段来隐藏自己的真实意图。

股海和人生一样，有三种境界：第一层，”见山是山“，股市新手，人云亦云，随声附和。第二层，”见山不是山“，股市老手，烟浓一望空无际，举棋不定，优柔寡断。第三层，”见山还是山“，股市高手，因过竹院逢僧话，偷得浮生半日闲。

MYEG 想用《5028》玩韩信的背水之战。可是一苗露水一苗草，一朝天子一朝臣。结局应该是和 Astro 30仙那样，四面楚歌，力拔山兮氣蓋世，時不利兮騅不逝 😁

新手看價。老手看量。高手看均线。主力大戶的筹码是在40-50仙的價位。配合投资银行分析师发布利好消息，抬高价格出货。股票布局，虚虚实实，见山不是山，见山还是山。

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread updated on Mar 25, 2024. Under worse case scenario, MYEG estimated DCF Value 0.48 MYR vs market price 0.79 MYR so the stock is overvalued -39%. Receivables 737.8m vs Revenue 774.28m so most of their sales are stuck in account receivable which is a bad signal. MYEG NTA 0.297 vs IFCAMSC NTA 0.20 so the tangible asset of MYEG also not that big.

華爾街有句名言：股價上漲，是錢堆上去的；而股價下跌，則是地心引力。主力大戶會用大單「對敲」的假單來作量，形成「外盤成交」的虛假人氣，以引誘散戶追價上當，然後趁機出貨。MYEG只可以玩短线，不能长期投资。夕阳无限好，只是近黄昏。

Basically they are just like POS office acted like a collection agent for the government but once the government decides to reduce budget deficit they may cancel or rationalize this kind of payment system so instead of outsourcing them to POS or MYEG the government will DIY the collection jobs.

"August 2023, the total federal government debt stood at RM1. 15 trillion or 62% of gross domestic product (GDP), below the stipulated debt ceiling of 65% of GDP."

This news indicated government's cash coffer is tight so the government must find way to generate revenue and that will impact MYEG's business prospects as their business model heavily rely on government's revenue. Almost ten out of ten IB analysts gave MYEG strong buy calls but the price action is telling another story i.e. big players are trying to clear their holdings bit by bit so that the share price will not suddenly collapse.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MYEG/MQoh3ZMA-Price-Cycle-Analysis-MYEG/

Yes, not only Malaysia, Africa too can be one of it with this brilliant solar panels proposal 😁

"Economy Ministry would meet with the Sarawak government next week to discuss the issues concerning Padu. Rafizi was reported to have said that the directive to suspend the registration of Padu was for the Sarawak government to obtain clarification from the ministry"

Seven days count down to PADU deadline and vote of no confidence as this PADU is a total waste of rakyat time and public resources. To predict the outcome of US elections we don't need to interrogate the whole US nation as a sample population of few hundred will be sufficient. PADU will create a lot of legal dispute as it will overlap and interfering with other government database as one country cannot have two different set of official database. This kind of big bro digital surveillance will not work unless it is a police state country so with 18% approval rate the economy minister should be kicked out of the office immediately and replaced by KJ or Tony Pua or Kian Ming who will be a better candidate for the job of economy minister 😁

When FED increases interest rate, US market goes up and China's market crashed. When Japan's Central Bank increases interest rate (just a wild guess maybe around 2.5%), it will crash the global financial market as US hedge funds used to borrow samurai loan at the rate of zero interest rate.

Current USDYEN chart looks highly similar to 97/98 Asian Financial Crisis so do watch out for this red flag as macroeconomic environment is turning from bad to worse and the approval rate for economy minister's PADU still remains at low side around 18%. Hope our economy minister can spend more time to tackle the macroeconomic issues and let's the income tax department and welfare office or DOMS do their jobs instead of trying to duplicate income tax department's database with PADU. So in future once we update our info with tax department or EPF or JPJ or DOMS we will have to update PADU as well? So the whole nation will spend most of their time updating PADU😁

https://i.postimg.cc/x1h96bth/USDYEN.jpg

As a layman we don't have the knowledge to interpret the news meaningfully so better wait for Tony Pua's comments and see how he sees this rising star about his well calculated corporate moves 😁

Sarawak government is telling the truth. To rationalize the petrol subsidy the gov actually can do it via the mechanism of tax rebate based on the income level filed. No need to interrogate the whole nation with PADU as if the whole nation are petrol smugglers or trying to cheat the PH government as apparently the economy minister may not have the authority to access those sensitive income tax info and that's the reason why we have to fill in the blank with PADU. Eight days count down to PADU referendum and vote of no confidence to the economy minister.

I doubt all these politicians have the right to do that as they will turn the country similar to a police state where citizens will be under the digital surveillance of government round the clocks. But it is not totally a surprise as PH is basically a left-wing political party.

With only nine days remaining until the PADU deadline, the current pickup rate stands at a mere 18%, prompting comparisons to a vote of no confidence. The nation is perplexed by the redundancy of PADU's objectives, considering the vast reservoir of data already collected by agencies such as LHDN, DOSM, EPF, SOSCO, JPJ, SPR, the Department of Social Welfare, and the Meteorological Department. This initiative seems akin to reinventing the wheel, compelling individuals to provide their personal data once again, under the premise that failure to do so will result in automatic exclusion from the petrol subsidy program. However, it's imperative to note that, according to the Constitution of Malaysia and the Doctrine of Separation of Powers, the legislative branch lacks the authority to encroach upon the executive's domain. Legally speaking, PADU serves merely as a "random survey form," as the economy minister, who spearheads the initiative, lacks the legal mandate to determine subsidy eligibility or enforce punitive measures for not providing your personal data and banking info to PADU.

With only nine days remaining until the PADU deadline, the current pickup rate stands at a mere 18%, prompting comparisons to a vote of no confidence. The nation is perplexed, if not slightly bemused, by the redundancy of PADU's objectives, considering the vast reservoir of Data Lake already collected by agencies such as LHDN, DOSM, EPF, SOSCO, JPJ, SPR, the Department of Social Welfare, and the Meteorological Department. This initiative seems akin to reinventing the wheel, compelling individuals to provide their personal data once again, under the premise that failure to do so will result in automatic exclusion from the petrol subsidy program. However, it's imperative to note that, according to the Constitution of Malaysia and the Doctrine of Separation of Powers, the legislative branch lacks the authority to encroach upon the executive's domain. Legally speaking, PADU serves merely as a "random survey form," as the economy minister, who spearheads the initiative, lacks the legal mandate to determine subsidy eligibility or enforce punitive measures for not providing your personal data and banking info to PADU😁

「洗盤」這是很多人常聽到的名詞。那麼，到底什麼是洗盤？主力又為什麼要洗盤？對於主力來說，在市場對特定股吸收到有一定掌控能力的籌碼後，必然會有低檔散戶跟單及原有高位套牢的籌碼。對主力而言，這些就是「浮額」，在未來拉升的過程裡，會阻礙未來股價的掌控與推動，所以必須做打壓這些浮額的動作。總結洗盤有3個目的：1.清洗底部跟單的籌碼；2.前波高位套牢的籌碼；3.主力在洗盤時，利用高出低進手法，拉大散戶與主力的持股成本。

所以洗盤，就是主力為了將未來不安定的籌碼清洗出來，讓這些浮額提前下車，但是要怎麼讓這些浮額願意退出呢？主力的一般手法便是製造出貨的假象，利用誤以為出貨的黑K線與大量的恐慌型態，讓散戶認為主力是出貨的行為，看見股價爆量大跌，散戶因為害怕獲利萎縮或虧損，自然在震盪行情中將手上持股賣出，如此主力便達到清洗浮額的目的。

The clock is ticking with ten days count down to PADU deadline as the economy minister said those who "refused" to PADU will be instantly kicked out of the petrol subsidy program or something like that. So far around 6m (I think mostly public servants forced by big brother to do so) have PADU out of 33m population so if this is a Brexit Referendum this economy minister should be kicked out of office immediate as only around 18% (6/33) of the population "voted" for his pet project. Those who "refused" to PADU are mostly humble Chinese working class family who fear that once they PADU it will impact their CTOS credit score and affect their ability to get bank loans in future time as the economy minister somehow amusingly "linked" PADU to poor income and also some may worry that it will invite income tax troubles and so on. It is almost certain that 90% who "refused" to PADU are mostly the vote bank of PH government so just let the deadline expire so that economy minister will learn a lesson this kind of big brother monitoring system is total unwelcomed as we are living in a free country with free will and what he is trying to do may not be permitted under Constitution of Malaysia as it is a form of invasion of personal freedom to against our own will to do or not to do something so just let the PADU deadline expire and see whether PH gov will walk its talks to remove our petrol subsidy.

A responsible government will not "force" rakyat to PADU and "threaten" with hostile action to take away their subsidy entitlement if they don't follow what the heck the economy minister instructed them to do so. A caring government will give rakyat the choice if we wanted a more speedy online bank-in option then you PADU your bank info (with the high risk hacker will hack your PADU info as the whole project looks like hobby class and not backed by big IT budget unlike income tax department or EPF or maybe even CTOS have bigger IT budget than this economy minister) otherwise those who are not in the mood to PADU the citizen welfare office still can continue to send them the physical cheque to their home address. Most rakyat will be very worry once they PADU their personal info as they will be digitally tag and very hard to get motorcycle loan to do foodpanda etc. The government should give reward to rakyat who has PADU and give free TouchGO e-wallet cash RM1500 so that our society will be filled with love and positive ambient. I am not aware of any advanced country using this kind of drastic action to penalize their citizen who don't prefer to digitalize their personal info. Most countries will do it via Tax Return and some countries like Canada when they move from one place to another place, the government will subsidy them the moving cost or when a mother gave birth to a baby the government will subsidy them some money as well. This PADU will be a total failure just like the petrol or diesel subsidy (around RM56bn every year) to create a black market and smuggling activities or in economic term called risk-free forex arbitrage. The toy idea of target petrol subsidy played by economy minister using PADU has the same loophole as those who not qualify can still "ask" someone to PADU and claim the target petrol subsidy. If the economy minister walks his talk and really take away the subsidy entitlement for those who failed to PADU he will help to collapse the PH government immediately as the vote bank of PH government are mostly those left-wing unions or socialist and this PADU target petrol will head-on hit them 😁

PADU actually just waste of time and public resources. The government can just request the help of income tax department to produce a list of those who earned min wage and just send a cash cheque to them or also can request the help of EPF to produce a list of those will balance less than RM10,000 just deposit cash to their EPF accounts 😁

When the government runs out of options to arrest the sharp fall of MYR they will defy the invisible hands to impose capital control and foreign capitals will be trapped so the more MYR falls the more foreign funds selling and repatriate the hot money back to their origin country. The reason Japanese Central Bank suddenly exit zero interest rate is due to the sharp increase of USD/YEN as Japan was just hit by economic recession and no sign their economy is improving especially the EV made in China has totally killed the automobile industry in Japan which was the backbone of their economy.

Those who think it looks familiar it is actually not an illusion as most of us have seen it before and that time our number one man said nothing to worry about and the number two man also said no worry as Malaysia is different from Thailand or South Korea but when George Soros hit the panic button most of the Asian Dragons crashed like paper tiger and to add salt to the wound the number one man was fighting with number two man that time and this time the same history still repeated itself so those foreign hedge funds must be amazed by the fighting spirit of our senior ministers 😁

https://i.postimg.cc/x1h96bth/USDYEN.jpg

Last week (15 Mar 2024) foreign fund managers sold quite a lot of PBBank (RM128) and bought some Maybank (RM85m) in order to mask their net selling activities. The more local funds push up the market the more foreign funds selling because our economy minister too obsessed with his database pet project and the job being a minister in charge of economy should be to formulate economic policy to contain the debt bubble as the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has turned from bad to worse due to USD/YEN/MYR parity as the math just don't add up when Japanese Central Bank giving up their ZERO interest rate policy and Federal Funds Rate is around 5.33%. History is a back mirror so see the chart below for more evidence why foreign fund managers so nervous and speed up the selling pace as our economy has reached the speed limit with private debt of 116.07% of GDP (should be around USD432b or RM2 trillion) trailing behind China (185.92% of GDP). Yes, the banks’ balance sheets are expected to remain solid this year (provided the property bubble don't crash...) but what what about next year or next next year as during Covid most people already dig out most of their EPF money (as the handout from government only can buy some popcorn and peanut unlike other countries which give out a lot of cash to help their people to overcome the pandemic) so the balance sheets of the private households are really in bad shape and not to mention we still need to bailout so many GLC as their balance sheets also in really really really bad shape.

https://i.postimg.cc/x1h96bth/USDYEN.jpg

ICAP fund (2.96 MYR) was listed on YR2005 just in time to catch the KLCI high-speed-rail took off from around 900 (YR2005) to 1800 (YR2014) or a return of 100% due to our boss's (YR2009–2018) pump priming economic model. Warren Buffet said "only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked" so the impressive return of the ICAP fund during the period from YR2005-2014 was statistically speaking fueled by the tidal wave effect so we zoom in further to most recent ten years (YR2013-2023) we will see more evidence that when the high tide receded ICAP fund actually will only give you around 2.5% return per year which statistically speaking underperformed EPF but of course this is not a red flag but just that those who enter at this level should not have too high expectation especially TTB is waiting for KLCI to hit 3000 level due to China's recovery but using Japan as a guide it will take around 20-30 years to clean up the twin bubbles of property crash and debt crash. If we see ICAP fund's YR2023 audited portfolio the result actually is not that impressive especially those investments losses associated with BIOHLDG (-RM7.8m) and Parkson (-RM20m). It is not easy to duplicate Warren Buffet's value investing in Bursa as most of Warren Buffet's stock picks are actually those market leaders with the ability to "control" the global markets and enormous capability to generate free cashflow for Warren Buffer to reinvest and grow his portfolio at 20% per year.

For the past ten years the tiger bank will give you around 6% investment return per year on average as this 6% actually is the mirror image of our GDP growth and the tiger bank happened to be the best proxy to our economy but anyone who think our country can continue to expand at 6% per year will be shocked as our economy has reached the speed limit with private debt of 116.07% of GDP (should be around USD432b or RM2 trillion) trailing behind China (185.92% of GDP). The debt bubble in China already pop with Evergrande (恒大集团) debt USD300b alone already almost the size of Malaysia GDP and followed by Country Garden (碧桂园) debt USD194 billion. The more local institional funds (may be ordered by the highest order) to push up the market the more foreign fund managers selling and that's the reason why we see the market went up 15pts one day and next day drop back 15pts. Basically these foreign fund managers are having popcorn party to enjoy the show seeing Malaysia moving closer and closer to the total collapse of debt bubble. Due to USD carry trade and USD/MYR parity, Malaysia will eventually has no choice but to increase the interest rate to arrest the sharp fall of MYR and that will effectively pop the debt bubble. Some people mistaken random luck with proven investment skill but EPF's track records actually can be considered world class especially their shariah fund managers with their excellent picks on Magnificent Seven (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) to boost the return from 4.75% to 5.40% which is exceptionally good compared to the conventional fund managers from 5.35% to 5.5% 😁

Sarawak has better conditions to become next silicon valley of Malaysia with their RE and stable political environment but the news that China tech companies trying to use Penang as back door entry to US market actually will attract the attention of US commerce department for wrong reason and banned all tech products originated or imported from Penang. Last time Malaysian glove sectors were hit by similar import ban so never underestimate the wisdom of US commerce department 😁

Just a friendly reminder. Do read those analyst reports just for fun as those research analysts were never hired to protect the interest of you and me at the first place. Some retired uncles may have sleepless night this few days as they keep worrying that this falling stock price maybe the life time opportunity to double their EPF money so tomorrow they will go EPF office and withdraw all their EPF saving and bet on this so called undervalued company as claimed by most research reports with some even pegged the target price at RM1.8 but the rubber glove fiasco and vaccine drama reminded us that most of the time those analysts were as good as monkey throw dart as during covid time when the glove company hit RM9 they said target price RM20 when the price crashed to RM5 they said target price RM10 and when the price hit RM0.65 they said no hope already so they issued SELL CALL and then the share price spring back to RM0.9 and some more the vaccine company even more funny with STRONG BUY CALL during covid time and now become a PN17 company.

Following is public info produced by a well respected multi-billion fund management company with high paid and highly trained fund managers but when the tsunami hit the shore they also cannot escape as they bought Hartalega at the cost of RM22m vs market value RM2m and TopGlove RM9m vs market value RM3m so the folk tales of fund managers can outperform the market is totally an unanswered question.

https://i.postimg.cc/4nRT7ggX/funds.jpg

In the scale of 0-10 with zero being no risk and 10 being super high risk I would give them risk score report of 9.99 as the court case will put a question mark on their business model with an unanswered question of the integrity of their database being tainted with outdated info so this will organically make their business model obsolete. It is like Lotus123 vs MSOffice or Yahoo's search engine vs Google's search engine. Most banks will question what will be the legal consequence if they continue to use the tainted database (at least from the point of view of legal judgment) to do credit evaluation. Imaging you spent the whole night writing a spreadsheet software trying to replace Lotus123 but someone found out it has programming bug when you key in 1+1 the software will produce 2.000111 which for some this error looks insignificant but when you use it to launch a space shuttle you will know this kind of programming bug is no joke and may endanger the life of the astronauts onboard. A pretty lady armed with her women intuition that she has been treated unfairly by a multi-billion company and won RM200,000 you think the Wolf of Wallstreet will not do the same but in largest scale as the pandora box has opened. Actually with or without this court case, modern mobile banking app will make their business model obsolete as those high-end banking app like ant finance will keep track of more than few thousand variables including your batt level and the financial news said if the banking app detected that you always have low batt the banking app will assign you lower rating so Jack Ma knows you better than you know you 😁

p/s: don't take excessive risks with this counter as the share price can open gap down next day anytime as a lot of big funds trapped inside and this news are totally unexpected to them so if the fund managers choose to do noting the boss sure will fire him just like last time glove stocks dropping but most local fund managers were like the deer caught in headlights.

Better wait for Hong Leong IB's research report and see how they see this fintech company as the legal case may have set a legal precedent to unlock the floodgate. We are small traders without legal knowledge and no idea how to evaluate the impact of a court decision and keep in mind that we are not supposed to openly discuss the court decision or else we will be sued by the AG as the court has made it pretty clear that " The High Court today ruled that CTOS Data Systems Sdn Bhd (CTOS) does not have the power to formulate its own credit score." so it really sounds like a serious matter. CTOS should release a public statement and explain to everyone how the credit data is collected and how to ensure the accuracy of the data collected and also whether it complied with privacy laws and so on. To be fair to CTOS, without this kind of rating services, the bank officers will have hard time to evaluate bank loans so eventually the profitability of major banks will be affected. This kind of credit evaluation services were created with good intention and in certain way helped the banking sectors to grow their loan business but just that it must be fair to all customer so hopefully CTOS can project a more user friendly image from now on.

"CTOS NTA 0.26 MYR, above 1.62 MYR is bullish, below RM1.62 MYR is bearish. The forecasted trajectory is heading south unless the price action can penetrate 1.62 MYR comfortably. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of CTOS Digital Bhd (CTOS.KL) is 0.72 MYR. With the latest stock price at 1.41 MYR, the upside of CTOS Digital Bhd based on DCF is -48.6%."

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CTOS/z4xHKd7C-Time-Cycle-Analysis-CTOS/


Above message was posted around 2 Feb and most IB analysts during this time gave CTOS the strongest buy call but the technical analysis puzzled me as it seems to me the price actions not in tandem with these Buy Calls. Unless you are the rank of Warren Buffet and know how to calculate their intrinsic value or you are a well trained legal experts and know how to interpret the legal implication of the court decision otherwise better wait for the opinion of Hong Leong IB and see how they see this case as their latest analysis on Ambank is top notch.

Not sure what's deal but if the block is placed to local fund managers it will create a lot of overhang shares as local fund managers normally quick to take profit and also unlikely this block of shares has lockup period. Hong Long IB said the share overhang will take at least six months for the market to digest with target price RM4.20

Beside Japan Inc, another possibility is Dubai Corp as the name of Ambank already hinted it is Arab Malaysian Bank. Highly unlikely Temasek as recently there were hit badly by the FTX crypto drama. Brunei King is another possibility but Your Highness is more interested in business ventures linked to Singapore so this possibility also ruled out.

This is twin story of Affin Bank. When the identity of the buyer is announced the market mood will swing to positive territory and the headline news will read like some international institutional investors are bullish on Malaysia's banking sector which is similar to the story of Abang Jo's entry to Affin Bank. The reason ANZ is cashing out from Ambank may be related to equity accounting and forex translation loss and most of the liability related to 1MBD's already cleared so again just like Affin Bank, the new major shareholder will hit the RESET BUTTON and push the bank forwards. Ambank's NTA is around RM5.9 so the new buyers just like Abang Jo will be laughing to the bank.

Today's low 3.95 should be near basement level as 3.85 is considered as the wholesale price with wholesale discount of RM0.10. Just a wild guess the new buyer could be linked to Japanese Bank as their stock market is doing extremely well recently.

春水船如天上坐，老年花似雾中看，雾里看花，终隔一层。AAX's creditors were forced to take a steep haircut to rescue the company. Once bitten twice shy. Capitala's creditors should be in battle mode by now as the whole proposal failed to protect their rights. The cash cow Air Asia will be transferred to AAX and 0.5%-1% of the sales will be transferred to Nasdaq listed CAPI in the form of something like Master Franchisor Agreement. Normally under this kind of situation, the bankers will seek court order to prevent the company to move out anything from the company as they have the first claim on the company's assets.

06 Oct 2020: Besides a steep haircut for creditors, the long-haul low-cost carrier also proposed a capital reduction of 90% of its issued share capital in order to offset its accumulated losses. This means a reduction of RM1.38 billion from its share capital.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/airasia-x-creditors-take-steep-haircut-debt-restructuring-scheme

note: this is old news but still relevant to those investors who see light as the debt restructuring scheme should be similar in nature but Capitala will involve some kind of reserve takeover by US entity so the question is after all this haircut and that haircut and eventually how much hairs will remain for existing investors is an unsolved mystery.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CAPITALA/ePs1hSm4-Time-Cycle-Analysis-CapitlaA/