now the US$500m debt restructuring is the big news.
once signed, the share price will explode.

someone also told me that there will not be RI because the share price is too low now.
his name is logic.

confirmed by who?

By nasaie24:

Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD
Mar 18, 2019 12:30 PM | Report Abuse

Rights issue confirmed

---------------

So, according to you, the "rights issue confirmed".
When are we going to see the announcement?
I wonder.

By Pearlwhite:
Mar 4, 2019 5:02 PM | Report Abuse

We hereby disclose that the individual identified by our Armada contacts (now 30+ identification) who is a UTSB manager in this forum as

mikekim

Please immediately view his past comments. Those comments were consistently and positively identified as frequently said to our Armada contacts by this individual.

---------------------------------------------

Pearlwhite, I'm still waiting for you to disclose the name, email and contact number of the "UTSB Manager" that you speculated and accused that I am.

If you know you are dead wrong, at least have the guts to admit it.

Otherwise, stop spewing nonsense on this forum.

Heard got someone spewing unsubstantiated false rumours on this forum. Better ignore first.

Also, Ananda Krishnan has been Mahathir's good friend for 50 years.

Foreign banks in India may not give a shit about AK for his Aircel fiasco.

But this is Malaysia, where all the GLC heads for your biggest banks - Maybank, CIMB etc. are appointed and controlled by the government. My bet is that they will definitely restructure Armada's debt.

This is not just a commercial call by banks, it's also a political call.

LGE's instruction to banks are clear - be more flexible in lending, lend more.

This will be good for Bumi Armada's debt restructuring.

Imagine the banks calling on Bumi Armada's debt, forcing the company to default. Being one of the largest O&G services company in Malaysia, LGE will definitely be notified and the banks involved are screwed.

Look forward to seeing a positive announcement in April on debt restructuring.

Once debt restructuring is complete in April 2019 (assuming they achieve this), Armada's liquidity concerns will be substantially derisked and share price is likely to explode.

Further catalyst is that 1Q2019 results (to be released in May) will almost certainly show a positive bottom line this time round after the massive kitchen sinking last year, when the new CEO comes on board.

It's dirt cheap now at 0.185.

naysayers will be resurfacing soon.
they've been pretty quiet last 2 weeks during the rally.

if you plot the share price chart against the frequency of naysayers on this forum, you will reach a conclusion:

1) When they reappear during a price dip, that's a good time for a trading buy
2) When they disappear during a rally, that's a good time for a trading sell

Getting closer to early April, looking forward to completion of debt restructuring.
It's obvious that the market is also taking this into account.

The surge today boosted most O&G stocks, including Armada.

However, Armada surged significantly more than most other O&G stocks.

It just shows how dirt cheap the stock is, given all these incessant attacks by media and analysts who's trying to paint a very negative picture on Armada. Just a bit of industry wide momentum, we see a strong surge of +15%.

Can you imagine how much the share price will surge once they announce a successful completion of debt restructuring? Let's wait and see in early April, lol.

Today, Pearlwhite is very quiet.

Btw, I have collected somemore today at 0.165.

Will continue to slowly accumulate on dips until announcement of positive newsflow.

Leon Harland, this is your last 2 months to do something right and repair your reputation before you leave. Salvage the damaging effect of your foolish internal memo which tanked the share price for no good reason. Complete the debt restructuring in April. Your millions of management incentive shares will increase substantially in value.

Just ignore pearlwhite.
Just another attention seeker.
The more you respond, the more stoked this person get.

Pearlwhite even speculated and announced that I'm a "UTSB manager" after "30+ verification", which is dead wrong.

Till today, Pearlwhite is unable to disclose said "UTSB manager" full name, contact number and UTSB email, and just pretended not to see my post and feign ignorance when I called out this person's bullcrap.

Leon Harland is too ashamed to attend AGM (hence his last day is before AGM) because he brought down Armada's price from RM0.80 to RM0.16 today.

Whatever good news there is, it's too late for him, he destroyed shareholder's value from RM4bn+ to less than RM1bn today.

No matter what's his performance, he still received a few years worth of multimillion package, enjoyed staying in luxury bungalow with luxury car driver, and kids going to private school all paid by Bumi Armada. He's probably laughing his way back to Europe, and there's nothing shareholders can do about it.

While Bumi Armada has strengthened its annual CFFO to RM1.1bn now, the short-term debt (due within 1 year) is RM7bn. Netting out cash of RM1.2bn, net debt is still RM5.8bn.

So RM5.8bn short term debt on RM1.1bn cashflow, simple math, Bumi Armada will need to restructure the 1 year short term debt to at least 5 years long term debt or it will face a cash crunch.

Only if the restructured debt tenure is longer at 7-8 years, then Bumi Armada will have some flexibility to pursue new projects.

However, if Armada is indeed able to achieve and announce a good debt restructuring plan (e.g. 5-7 years tenure, reasonable interest rate at around 5-6%), the share price will rocket up, and we can expect a slew of analysts revising their TP higher and changing their calls to buy.

This is essentially the key bet for those holding Armada or considering buying Armada.
I have no doubt that they will reach a deal with the banks eventually to restructure the debt.

However, the problem is timing.
Can Bumi Armada really do what it says it will do?

Time and time again Armada has proven to be a big disappointment in achieving the deadline that they set themselves (Kraken, debt restructuring etc.). When they miss the deadline, it sends a negative message to the market, causing share price to spiral down. This is essentially what happened in Nov 2018, when outgoing CEO Leon Harland foolishly sent a bearish internal memo to employees which was leaked. The share price went down from RM0.80 to RM0.15 very quickly within a few months. If Bumi Armada's management was more proactive in getting the debt restructuring done in Nov 2018, sentiment would have been very very different.This is exactly why Leon Harland, by all means, deserve to be sacked. The new incoming CEO, Gary Neal, has been on the board of Bumi Armada since 2018. To a certain extent, he knew about Armada's debt issues, but nothing much has been done. So, I'm not putting much hopes on him yet, at this point. There's no point talking hopes up, action speaks louder than words.

So, I'll be holding this until June 2019, that will be the last straw, if debt restructuring is still not completed by then.

the share price will be stagnant without news flow.

the latest guidance is that debt restructuring will only complete in April.

take this with a pinch of salt though, Bumi Armada has no sense of shame breaching deadlines again and again. They highlighted this debt issue in 2017 annual report, failed to get it done in Nov 2018, further delay from Mar 2019.

That's 15 months in progress trying to restructure debt, lol.

If this is not incompetence, then I don't know what is.

I would also like to draw fellow investor's attention to Page 20 of the latest quarterly report.

Bumi Armada has paid:

RM6.9m to UTSB as management fees.
RM19.5 million in salaries etc. to key management team.

That's RM26.4m being paid to a group of people who have performed extremely poorly in 2018.

After screwing up, they just don't renew their contract, take these money and go back to their home country for "personal reasons". (wink wink Leon Harland).

So EPF, Amanah Saham representatives - you guys have been screwed very badly in the past year by Armada's management team and UTSB. You're really investing the people's money, and you have a fiduciary responsibility to protect these capital.

Be more stern during the next AGM, put tremendous pressure on management team, don't let them get away with vague responses like "we're still working on it, it's in progress" - keep asking and asking tough questions. Management team can get away from trying to bully minority retail investors, but they will be more wary of you. It's no more time for shaking hands, smiling and exchanging name cards. It's time to bang tables, and bang them hard.

Actually, it's great that the media and bearish research analysts are aggressively broadcasting Bumi Armada's debt issues.

This will mount tremendous pressure on the Board and Management Team to complete the debt restructuring as soon as possible. These guys have been missing deadlines again and again, very shamelessly. Dead restructuring should have been done in Oct/Nov 2018, then pushed to March 2019, then April 2019.

No more slacking.
Slacking = sacking.
Just look at Leon.

May AGM coming...better achieve something to face your very pissed off shareholders.
Tik tok tik tok.

So,

- 3 trading days after announcing RM2.3bn impairment paper loss in FY2018
- 6 analysts turning very bearish and giving sell calls between RM0.09 to RM0.15
- Numerous condemning article in the media highlighting that Bumi Armada is in serious trouble

The share price only dropped 1 cent from RM0.18 to RM0.17?
Why are the shortsellers not working harder to gap down Bumi Armada?
Easy kill, what are they afraid of?
I wonder.

Analysts:

[BUY/HOLD Group]

JF Apex - TP 0.35
Affin Capital - TP0.28
Public Bank - TP 0.22
Ambank - TP 0.20
Hong Leong - TP 0.20

----

[SELL Group]

CIMB - TP 0.15
Jefferies (KAF Seagroatt) - TP 0.15
Maybank - TP 0.11
JP Morgan - TP 0.11
Macquarie - TP 0.11
Kenanga - TP 0.09


---

The average TP of all of 11 of them - 0.179

there will not be an RI.

1) Share price is too low.
2) They will not get the required shareholders approval.

This RI rumor keeps resurfacing, perpetuated by speculative analysts, although management has clearly stated that there will be no RI for umpteenth times.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/10/22/bumi-armada-not-looking-into-equity-fund-raising/

"Bumi Armada is not considering equity fund raising but instead it is mulling asset monetisation, such as selling floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) stakes to partners, setting up private trusts (infrastructure funds) or tapping into an available debt facility of US$1.5bil."

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bumi-armada-says-not-default-risk-report

"Bumi Armada, when contacted by the media, said it has postponed the US$500m debt restructuring deadline to 1H19. Bumi Armada has no intention to go for a rights issue as it is pursuing other options — refinance, EMTN (Euro medium-term note) or trust (infrastructure funds) — to raise funds. A rights issue at the current price would not raise much money and would further erode share price."

Reports are almost all out.
Basically, analysts are split into 2 groups:

[BUY/HOLD Group]

JF Apex - TP 0.35
Affin Capital - TP0.28
Public Bank - TP 0.22
Ambank - TP0.20
Hong Leong - TP 0.20

----

[SELL Group]

CIMB - TP 0.15
Jefferies (KAF Seagroatt) - TP 0.15
Maybank - TP 0.11
JP Morgan - TP 0.11
Kenanga - TP 0.09

---

The average of all of 10 of them - RM0.186

accumulate patiently - the general sentiment now is weak for the malaysian market, so there will be plenty of opportunity.

i usually buy more when there's a high volume, sudden 3-4 bids dip in price.
so it's not quite there yet.
was hoping the irrational market will crash the price post large impairment, but sadly it didn't.

there could be no news flow for weeks.
armada has a very unpredictable pattern, it could spike 30-40% a day at any time.
i can't really time it, so i'm just gonna hold till june 2019 at least.

it's gonna be boring from now on.
all the best everyone.

Agreed.
Accumulate on dips.

Shorties have the best chance to short the shares these few days to push the price down, when sentiment is weak and many analysts make a sell call on non-cash impairments, and the media amplifying it. If they don't ride the flow and short now, I don't know when will be a better time for them to short. If you're not in a position to short, buy on dips, because all shares that are shorted will need to be eventually covered.

Affin's report is saying that the debt restructuring announcement is likely to be in early April.
So, 1 month to slowly accumulate.

Remember, Armada's share price was beaten down from RM0.80 to RM0.17 today mainly because of this short term debt mismatching cashflow issue. The heavy overhang will be removed once they complete debt restructuring. Expect all analysts to magically change their views and TP once that happens. They are very fluid and flexible as we all know, haha.

You should really disclose the full name, phone number and UTSB email of the said "UTSB manager" that you think I am.

That way, it may trigger an internal investigation at UTSB against the manager.

The manager, will of course, have no clue what this Pearlwhite person is talking about.

He could then lodge a police report for someone tarnishing his reputation in a public forum.

Pearlwhite's accusation is tantamount to saying that this "UTSB manager" has breached the law by posting confidential information and knowledge about Armada in a public forum, a jailable crime.

The police will then attempt to track down Pearlwhite's IP and location for an arrest.

So, Pearlwhite, please disclose the full name, phone number and UTSB email.
That's even assuming you even have such information.
But you know what, I really think you don't have the guts.
Because you just realized that you are so wrong.
Haha.

------------------
Pearlwhite
Stock: [ARMADA]: BUMI ARMADA BHD
Mar 4, 2019 05:02 PM | Report Abuse

We hereby disclose that the individual identified by our Armada contacts (now 30+ identification) who is a UTSB manager in this forum as

mikekim

Please immediately view his past comments. Those comments were consistently and positively identified as frequently said to our Armada contacts by this individual.

------------------

So, Pearlwhite, in the end, you failed to proof what is the full name, phone number and UTSB email of the said "UTSB manager" that you said I am.

What an epic fail in speculation with baseless accusations.

Why do you still think you have any credibility, when you know that you've been absolutely, categorically wrong?

You've decided to just keep absolutely quiet after you realize that you've just made the biggest joke out of yourself. I see that you've learnt the silence skill well from Armada's management.

Haha, I'm just waiting for Pearlwhite to reveal the full name, contact number and email of the said "UTSB manager".

Well I'm honored because Pearlwhite is essentially acknowledging that the points that I've raised is exactly the same as what the UTSB guys (who have clear oversight and complete access to Bumi Armada's information) are thinking and saying.

The key takeaway that I can take from Pearlwhite's allegations (allegedly through 30+ verification) is that UTSB thinks that Armada's operating cashflow is strong and debt restructuring will not be an issue. That's a strong validation from the most bearish doomsayer of Armada on this forum. But of course, that is assuming our friend Pearlwhite is not speculating and bullshitting about said "30+ verifications".

Anyway, pearlwhite, since you've directly involved me in your post, please post my full name, contact number and UTSB email here by tonight to prove your claims.

I fully welcome you to do so.

Otherwise, this just proves that you're a speculator and a fraud.

No problem, Atarah.

Share price has remained stable for 2 days now, after one of the largest ever impairment by BA.

Why? Impairment is just paper loss.

Cash is king (source quote unknown - lol).

lol, pearlwhite hasn't disclosed full name, contact number and email yet, be patient.

HR manager can't be bothered lah, they went home already before peak hour jam.

Maybe Ashwin Kumar Das (UTSB Head of Investment) will come and talk to said "UTSB manager" after Pearlwhite discloses full name.

haha definitely staying put for Pearlwhite to reveal my full name, contact number and UTSB email.

Still waiting...

no no no i chose mikekim because it's the same spelling if you reverse it, not because i'm korean. don't speculate like pearlwhite lah, hahaha.

Ok so I'm now a "korean corporate finance manager" who works at UTSB.
What else - male/female? Age?

Pearlwhite, still waiting for my full name, contact number and email.
Please do reveal.

This is the funniest thing that tickled me today haha.

Oh my my pearlwhite, I thought you had some sense when you were highlighting the debt levels and failure of Armada to secure new projects - those are valid issues. But after your funny speculation today, I'm not too sure about it.

Feel free to disclose my "full name", contact number and UTSB email here please.

We're all waiting.

I'm honored to be the "chosen one", pearlwhite.

Please disclose my full name, contact number and UTSB email here please, as the said "UTSB manager".

From work, haha.
The more I work, the more i find CFA is useless, especially at the higher levels.
Maybe CFA Level 1 is useful for basic finance knowledge, so you understand jargons in financial statements, that's all.
After that, it's all your commercial call and judgment.

Lol, sure.

My name will always be mikekim, no CFA.

Lol, I think najib razak also quoted someone else.
Wikipedia quoted Volvo CEO said it in 1988 after the global stock market crash, haha.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_is_king

The origin of ”cash is king” is not clear. It was used in 1988, after the global stock market crash in 1987, by Pehr G. Gyllenhammar, who at the time was Chief Executive Officer of Swedish car group Volvo.

Haha, no need lah, i think only shigurui needs to take it because he's so caught up in it and got confused in theoretical finance definitions.

your wealth of experience at 65 years is worth more than any CFA can give you.

Lol, Heavenly Punter, totally agree with you on CFA title. Look at all our research analysts today, it's always XXX, CFA.

Then said CFA gives u TP at RM0.70, few weeks later, change to RM0.30, then one more week later change to RM0.15.

Your own money, your own call.
I reiterate, cash is king.

BringMeFly before you take CFA level 1, i suggest you to attend the preparation class first
04/03/2019 15:51

---

Haha, this tickles me.
Yeah, shigurui, please buy the Kaplan books and attend the prep classes.
Maybe after you pass Level 1 we can discuss again.
Don't worry, it's just multiple choice question, even if you got wrong concepts and just tembak, still got chance to be correct.

It's okay, my friend, people who knows finance and work in finance will know that operating cashflow is not the same thing as EBITDA.

As i've always said, cash is king. not EBITDA is king.

I'm lazy to respond further to people who have a weak understanding of finance, feel free to do your own research from CFA textbooks, investopedia, finance textbook etc.

lol, who's saying that banks are restructuring loan covenants based on DCF over EBITDA?
I think only you have a misunderstanding and trying to mislead the discussion here.
Just admit that you confused cashflow with EBITDA, it's not the end of the world, my friend.
You can register to take CFA Level 1 in June, then maybe you have better understanding.

lol, here comes the fallacy that EBITDA is the same as operating cashflow.
Since when have we been talking about EBITDA?
We have always been talking about cashflow from operations.
So, please restudy what defines cashflow from operations, my friend.

It's funny that some "experts" look at operating cashflow BEFORE changes in working capital.

Working capital is exactly part of operations.

Do you know that in DCF, they calculate free cashflow after working capital and net capex? That is exactly the free cashflow to firm (debt and equity holders).

My gosh, finance 101, my friend.

Even at 30 cents, RI will be too dilutive and they can't raise much.

Only do new projects if Olombendo can be partially sold at a satisfactory price.
Otherwise, there's no need to do any new projects.

Step 1 - Restructure debt to 5-7 years

Step 2 - Use RM1.1bn annual stable cashflow to cut down debt for the next 4 years. This is significantly bring share price back up when debt concerns are lowered.

Step 3 - After 4 years and significant deleveraging, can consider pursuing new FPSO projects. Borrow more or issue RI, upt o Armada to decide.

Armada's Claire potential win will be a side bonus. It's good to have, but not essential.

It's really that simple.
Hope the new CEO would execute something like this.

i can't even begin to fathom what goes into the CIMB analyst's head.

lol seems like all the institutional funds now think this guy's a joker and no longer takes his view seriously.

equity research analysts these days are just herd animals.

the same analysts recommended strong buy for Armada at RM5 back in 2014, when everything was bullish and rosy. Follow their recommendations, you lose >95% of your investments.

Now when everything is so damn obvious that there are some debt issues, and then they point out the obvious and call a strong sell.

Where's the value-add?
We need analysts to think 3-5 steps ahead, not telling me that my mother is a woman.

It's so funny, now joker CIMB says 80% RI, 20% no RI, adjusted from previous 70%/30%.
Lol, I think the analyst is under too much pressure, maybe went a bit cuckoo on trying to salvage his reputation when he did a 180 degrees u-turn on his BA calls.

Maybank says 0% RI, because at the current share price, they won't get much, so there is no point.

So use logic, think, and decide who makes more sense.

1Q2019 will be the turnaround quarter after massive kitchen sinking in FY2018.

New management will be eager to show "profit", they have bitten the bullet and blamed this on outgoing management, Leon.

Remember, cashflow has doubled to RM1.1bn / year.

It will be stronger in 2019 with higher expected uptime from Kraken - as projected by Enquest the client themselves: https://www.enquest.com/operations/kraken

Once they announce the completion of debt restructuring, it will be a gap up.
Armada Claire's potential win is also another gap up.

The supposed "gap down" for impairment in Q42018 did not happen.
Why? Because impairment is non-cash.
We have a bunch of people here extolling how "impairment" is a reduction of "expected economic benefit" bla bla bla - all these theoretical nonsense.
Cashflow is king. Look at cash!